Saturday, April 25, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 25, 2009: The Withers and The Derby Trials

The lovely Dita Von Teese lights a cigar to celebrate the Turk's minor victories in the Grade III Withers at Aqueduct and Grade III Derby Trials at Churchill Downs. Out of respect to the equally gorgeous Mrs. Turk, we kept it to one cigar, two fingers of celebratory bourbon, and warm regards for each others, ummm, work. I digress.

In today's Grade III Withers, it seemed apparent to me that This Ones for Phil would be the overwhelming chalk. The Turk thought that he was a beatable chalk and approached his handicap with the idea that This Ones for Phil would be no better then second. I would have liked a bigger field to pump up the odds a bit, but some handy dandy math before the race made me think I could make a decent enough score if my handicap came through, so I exercised some discipline, worked my handicap as I always preach, and was rewarded with $92.30 on several bets that totaled $10.

Race 9 AQU; The Withers Grade III

I don't get hung up on betting strategy or rambling about my ROI. What I do well as a horse player is betting discipline. This race is a good example of what I talk about with working the handicap. Pre race, I had Everyday Heroes in the show spot on the ticket. I thought it was a stretch and if the horse hadn't scratched, I would have spent anywhere between $4 and $6 dollars building the tri tickets with other options. When he scratched, I worked my handicap and slid Gone Astray up and when he finished third, I had predicted the trifecta cleanly. With a five horse field I wasn't thrilled betting at all, but I felt strongly that I had this one nailed with the top two, so I almost stopped with the exacta bet, but I spent a reasonable amount and was rewarded. I worked my handicap, I put my eggs in Mr. Fantasy's basket and let it ride.

Race 9: AQU; The Withers Grade III

And the second race of the day was at Churchill Downs, where this Kentucky gentleman's thoughts are currently centered. The Derby Trials was a race I thought the heavy favorite would win, and Silver City didn't seem to get the memo. I'm concerned for the horse that was freshened and allowed to race a one turn event, and after leading at 4 furlongs, fell apart. Pre Race I expressed an admiration for Hull, and he rewarded me with $8.80 to win, but my handicap fell apart with Silver City.

Race 10 CD: The Derby Trials Grade III

All in all, a pretty good day on a day when no one in the race world is thinking about the last Saturday in April.

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