There comes a time when you are in school that you just can't study anymore for a big test. I use to be impressed by the kids who didn't cram the night before; they worked hard all semester, knew the information, and got a good night of relaxing sleep.
After handicapping every major prep race on these 3 YOs since last October, I'm at a point where I'm past the need to study and I just have to finish the test, and a tough test it is. If this was the Backwater Derby, as a handicapper, I'd walk away. You have a 20 horse field running a distance not a single one of them has ever tried to run. It's the Kentucky Derby though, the biggest stage of the year for the sport I love, and while my bettors mind is telling me to walk away, hey it's the Derby. Let's have some fun, pick some horses, and see how we do. To fans of passion and good guys finishing first, that horse and jock pictured of course is the winner of the 133rd Kentucky Derby, Street Sense, with Mr. Calvin Bo-Rail up.
Race 11 Churchill Downs: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
This one is a race you must watch the weather and the tote board on. There are only two wet dirt winners in this race, Friesen Fire and Desert Party. I'm giving the edge to the LA Derby winner, Friesen Fire. As much as I like Friesen Fire, the betting angle has to be about fashioning tickets out of your handicap and hoping for the best. I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile will get some tickets with me on top, and then I have a 4 horse group (15, 12,7 and 19) that I will use to make up exactas and even a few stright Trifectas, and 10 cent Supers. I'm going keep doing the same things that have made me sucessful over the past few months; Work my handicap, establish my bet limit before I bet, fashion my tickets sans emotion, and pray.
Speaking of praying, Little Turk makes his First Communion today. The Turk is sacrificing his Derby Day rituals for the love of my favorite little handicapper. Little Turk likes two horses, I Want Revenge and Musket Man. . Mrs. Turk took longer then her usual 20 seconds to pick a horse, and she has chosen Hold Me Back.