Sunday, June 28, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 27, 2009; The King Edward Grade II at WO

A good race for the race fan in me. Pre-Race, I lamented the difference between being a race fan and a bettor. It's as big a gulf as the difference between handicapper and bettor, perhaps with more passion.

I'm a fan of Rahy's Attorney. He thrilled me with his Woodbine Mile win last year. I backed him in the Connaught Cup and he came up a bit short. Even yesterday I wasn't sure his current form was better then his challengers, so I backed Sterwins. The calculating bettor in me went against him and I fought the race fan in me who wanted to back him. Duality and dichotomy have no real place in this game.

Before I get all misty eyed and weepy, remember The Turk isn't a an advocate of betting to feel good. I handicap many races I never bet. I love the mental challenge, but when I bet, I bet to win. Win means different things to different people. To the Turk it means betting small dollars (generally less then $15/race) and turning it into either the same amount or a slightly bigger amount. Positive cash flow. While being happy for Rahy's Attorney return with panache (a new course record at 1:44.73), I was positive cash as well.

Race 7 WO: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Canadian Turf for 3 YO and Up.

Because of the small field and the amount of heavily bet favorites who I knew would be in the top three, I declined any boxed bets. Instead I fashioned Tri bets based on my base handicap with Sterwins/Rahy's Attorney and I had one ticket with Society's Chairman and one with Baletti. Those went bust.

Round two I flipped Rahy's/Sterwins and placed Society's Chairman and Balletti on separate tickets for Show. That was the winner, and my $8 wagered returned $39.90.

I'm not really sure why the betting public liked Baletti so much. He ran a nice Allowance race recently with a 101 BSF, but betting him down that low against Grade II warriors like Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney wasn't reasonable.

The Bison City $250,000 is today at WO at 3:27 ET. It's 1 1/16 on fake dirt for Canadian foaled 3 YO fillies. We'll be back for that I reckon.

Turk Out!


Amateurcapper said...


Your exotics are more on than off...quite a talent to think of the under positions.

Do you ever focus on straight betting? I still can't get away from win/exacta bets.

The Turk said...


I think win bet when the odds are slanted at least >4-1. The problem I have is I like to blog Graded Stakes or Rich $$$$ Non Graded Stakes. The types of races I blog about have few live and long horses and the horse flesh in them are generally very well known horses with very believeable PPs.

Instead of chalk-chasing wins here, I use the chalks to my advantage and try to cash Tris and Supers.

To me, the handicap is the thing. I bet off of my handicap. I generally build a matrix that is nothing more then all the bets that would be placed IF I boxed. I then eliminate all the "boxed bets" that don't make sense to me.

Thanks for the kind words, but there is nothing special about what I do. I follow timeless handicapping rules and I ignore the flavor of the day type of handicapping gimmicks.