Saturday, October 15, 2011

The Nomination Is In: October 15, 2011; The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland

I'm here on this day of rage to represent the 1%; The 1% of horseplayers who are getting phat off the pari mutuel losses of the oppressed 99% betting public. You poor, downtrodden masses, lined up at the betting windows like lemmings, The Ol' Turk is a benevolent 1% type, offering my Truck Nutz Iron Pipe Locks of the Week for free. Win some bread money and any left over, do something humanitarian like save a horse.

All kidding aside, there are some pari mutuel winnings just sitting there waiting to be had each week. You have to pick your marks and you have to know when to just sit back and be a horse fan with no skin in the game. The card in today's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is stacked and earns its Grade 1 status; Winter Memories, Together(Ire) ,Summer Soiree, the Breeders' Cup Champ, More Than Real; Wow. We're going to handicap this and have some fun, but there are much easier races this weekend to beat the odds.

Let's get after it today!

Before we go to deep, I pulled up some key race videos that you should take a strong look at. The Fillies and Mares continue to be just a wildly exciting and deep group. These are some of the more sterling runs of the year.

The Del Mar Oaks Grade 1 (20 Aug 2011)

The First Lady Grade 1 (8 Oct 2011)

The Garden City Grade 1 (17 September 2011)

From the outside, with Ramon Dominguez up is Summer Soiree, the Del Mar Oaks champ. The War Front daughter has 4 wins in 5 tries in 2011 including two sizzling turf efforts. Off since August 20, Trainer Motion is 25% off this layoff and a 25% winner Won Last Start. Not sure who she beat at at Del Mar as Nereid and Star Billing are a lower tier here.

The Turk loves Winter Memories and wants to see her win here, but the bettor in me tries to keep an even keel about these things. The beautiful El Prado (Ire) daughter has 6 wins in 8 starts over turf and her last race she closed like a freight train with a turn of foot that defines turn of foot. There should be plenty of speed for her to focus on over the last 1/8 of a mile.

Together (Ire)is a Galileo (Ire) daughter trained by Aidan O'Brien runs back on one week layoff after a willing Place , 1 1/2 lengths off the winner of the First Lady (as an aside, don't cha love the TRACKUS video feeds!. A 21 day layoff in September saw her come back sluggish and an 8 day layoff as a 2 YO was similar results. No wins in 7 starts this season.

Kathmanblu is a very honest girl with a turf master, Leparoux up. 9 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, she'll be in the exotic mix.

It may be time to say that More Than Real had a great trip in the Breeders' Cup but has never stepped forward after that. 2nd lowest lifetime Beyer, never breaking 90 in 6 races. Don't expect much here.

Trainer Shirreffs has two talented girls here with Star Billing and Nereid. Both are off the layoff since the Del Mar Oaks, a break Shirreffs wins off of 14% of the time. Star Billing is 5 of 5 in the money on turf but no wins at the distance. Nereid won 3 of 4 starts over turf and 4 of 4 in the money, but also no wins at the distance.

So what to make of all this? Nereid , Marketing Mix and More Than RealSummer Soiree may rate a bit back after breaking from the outside. Kathmanblu will position in a stalk, 2 lengths back, and a blanket of closers will lay as much as 3 back with Star Billing, Together and Winter Memories all watching each other. This race will be settled in the final hops and i'm leaning towards Winter Memories. I'll assemble a superfecta with the tote board chalk in the top four.

Have fun with it friends. Turk Out!

No comments: