Sunday, October 2, 2011

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 1 October 2011; Goodwood Stakes Day at Santa Anita

Zazu, with Rosario up, closed like a freight train in silks familiar with winning the Lady's Secret. Thanks to kimpossible's Flickr feed for the use of this picture. Zazu is such a wonderful filly who flies under the radar in relation to the crop of fillies and mares in training now. I'm not the kind of blogger that often asks these questions, but is the F&M collection racing in the past 3 years one of the best groups ever? I'm going with yes.

I hope everyone enjoyed Super Saturday. As I lamented on Facebook, I skipped betting Belmont yesterday and simply enjoyed the races as a fan. Small fields, a rail bias that was indisputable, and seriously heavy duty rain proof chalk; it just doesn't amount to a race track investment of our hard earned capital.

I loved seeing Uncle Mo romp and Harve de Grace look smashing, and a bit south of Elmont, I was really excited by Plum Pretty, but for gambling opportunity, I looked to the Great Race Place, ultimately to mixed results, if $2.01 for every dollar bet can be considered failure.

I like to dwell on what I left on the table, and a $8,733 Superfecta was attainable and a $1,122 trifecta was mine if I would have just placed the bet. Spilled milk, but it's what I preach about here; studying the results, understanding why you won and lost. It really does help improve your betting habits more than anything else.

Let's get after it!

Santa Anita wasn't immune to the nationwide chalk celebration yesterday. While I won the P3, the return wasn't spectacular, but I did do it on a $16 dollar bet.

What did I do right yesterday: The Lady's Secret was pretty straight forward. I said pre race I didn't expect Blind Luck to win. I thought she'd be fourth and if I would have been braver i would have put her 5th. She needed a break, she's smaller than Harve de Grace, and maybe, just maybe her second race off the break is better, but who knows. Ultra Blend is ultra dependable to hit the board, now 13 straight.

In the Goodwood I had Game On Dude to win along with the betting public. I had Miss Match (Arg) in the top four while the bettors had her sixth. Yawn, Super win $12.80 for a ten center.

In the eighth, a $48,000 N1X, where a semi professional gambler should have an advantage over the less educated money that watches only the graded stakes, I had Mega Heat in my top four, had Irish Art for Place, had Romeo Royale in the top four. This alone would have paid a good trifecta payout, but I was either lazy or unfocused and didn't bet it. Most weekends if I was more aggressive I would have gotten the Super. I wasn't high on Utopian and the horses didn't help as I had Renegade Storm and Oak Kye Why covered. I pride myself on preparation and not betting when I'm not prepared. I should have passed yesterday. Well, I'm not a computer, I know that, so I'll mourn the money left on the table and refocus, which I did for the Yellow Ribbon.

In the Yellow Ribbon, a turf affair that is right in my wheelhouse, I felt the handicap was straight forward. I believed Turning Top (Ire)was much better than the ninth she was on the tote board. I had the top five played pretty good. I missed on Malibu Pier, and Cambina (Ire) didn't come until too late. Not perfect, but a good way to end the day.

Not too many more multiple graded stakes days left on the 2011 calendar, sans Breeder's Cup weekend. Enjoy them while you can.

I'm working on analysis of the Breeder's Cup Classic over the past 10 years as well as some early thoughts on the betting strategy I'll employ in November. Good stuff friends.

Turk Out!

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