Saturday, May 9, 2009

The Nomination Is In: May 9, 2009: The Peter Pan Grade II at Belmont

The fine looking colt to the left is none other than the enigma of 2008, the Big Brown killer lying in wait at Belmont, 2008 Peter Pan Champion Casino Drive. As reported first at fellow Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance site Striding Thoroughbreds in Japan, Casino Drive recently suffered a severe bowed tendon. We wish Casino Drive a speedy recovery. Photo copyrighted to Vanessa Ng. For more insightful news, commentary and photography from the Japanese racing scene visit Striding Thoroughbreds or Keiba Kate's Racing in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Race 9 BEL: The Peter Pan Grade II; 1 1/8 on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs.

This is an interesting race, and one as a bettor I would walk away from. It's a seven horse field and if it gets any smaller I will surely look somewhere else in NY to give my money, like Albany State Government. I see very little difference in quality from top to bottom, and the morning lines reflect that with the lowest horse, Stately Character at 15-1 (Note: I don't like to look at Morning Lines before I handicap, but I was curious after I handicapped what others thought of this field).

I like Imperial Council to be in the Top Three. Charitable Man and Hello Broadway could turn this into a snoozer and the three likely suspects could fill out the ticket. That's not going to pay much so I'm looking contrarian and I'm going to fashion some tickets with Charitable Man or Hello Broadway faltering and then inserting one of the longer odd horses into the three spot. I like Scorewithcater especially if >8-1.

The Turk will be back later this afternoon to look at the Mervin Leroy at Hollywood which goes off at 7:30 ET. Rail Trip goes for his 6th straight win.

The Preakness is one week away. As a horse fan, these weeks around the Triple Crown are the most exciting of the year. As a handicapper, I'm a bit daunted by the task of 'capping the field that is shaping up for next week, especially with Borel and the Filly just sending everyone into a tizzy.

And the Belmont Stakes , the test of Champions, isn't that far off as well. I suggest anyone trying to keep up with news and opinions on the race read the blogs at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as well as the blogs at the Belmont Stakes website. Teresa Genaro, Lisa Grimm, Andy Serling and Jenny Kellner lend their intelligence, knowledge and experiences with the Belmont to get this Turk excited about going already.

Turk out!


Kate said...

Thanks for the shout out! :)

Amateurcapper said...

I like STATELY CHARACTER to outrun his odds...most likely 2nd or 3rd but will throw a flyer win wager on just in case. Your top choice should bounce back to his best form and CHARITABLE MAN figures to improve off his last (wide, middle move, tired) on Polytrack. At short prices, hard to key on them rebounding.

SCOREWITHCATER is consistent, but I fear will be overbet due to his last race being the one that the Derby winner came out of.

I don't like HELLO BROADWAY's "bore out" comment...believe he's ouchy, not just in need of the new blinkers. A horse with his experience doesn't just bear out because he's lacking focus.

So maybe I'll consider STATELY CHARACTER stronger.

BTW, I think RAIL TRIP is as big a lock as horse racing can offer. Valdivia gave him a horrible ride and the pair just survived. Believe they stalk BALL FOUR, put that one away on the turn, open up five at the head of the lane and win for fun once again.

The Turk said...

Kate: Anytime buddy!

AmCap: I love Rail Trip but I'm hoping he loses today.

This is a weekend for the real junkies while the rest of the race world waits for next week. Yup, I'm a junkie.