Sunday, May 24, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 24, 2009: The Connaught Cup Grade III on Turf at WO

The Turk looked at the Connaught Cup at Woodbine as a chance to win some rather easy money. Perhaps that sounds arrogant? It should. Horse betting, unless you just like to give your money away, is about winning more money. If you're not good at it, you should give it up. If you want to get better, then keep working at it. Study your missteps, learn when to not bet, learn when to hedge your bets or when to let it ride straight. You won't win every bet. You might not win every six bets, but unless you like chalk and high risk, low reward bets, when you do strike gold, you'll hit it good.

I love handicapping. I'm not much of a bettor but I love to handicap. As I like to ramble on about, I'm cool with betting no more then $10 bucks or so on just a few races a week, and if I do well, I come out ahead. Am I retiring on that? Nope, but I'm also not laying out a big bank roll either, which Mrs. Turk would have a kitten over.

Which brings me back to the Connaught Cup. I would have liked at least two more starters to fatten the odds a bit, but I believed strongly after handicapping this race that Society's Chairman, Rahy's Attorney and Sterwins would be the top three. It wasn't rocket science, the bettors thought the same thing, voting the three into the top three spots on the tote board. I did hedge myself, a boxed $2 trifector bet that cost $12 dollars, as well as two straight Tri bets that hedged in two different third place finishers.

The payoff on a $2 Tri bet was $89.70. If I was more of a bettor I would have slammed down a $10 spot, but then that box costs $120, and while no matter how much money I bet I believe I will win, I'm just not into that kind of exposure week to week. I'll keep my day job and cash cigar, bourbon and past performance money.

Oh, and before I get nasty comments, I'm not an arrogant person, I'm an arrogant and introverted (non boasting, non animated, non vocally annoying) handicapper. It's part of my process; I have to believe that every bet I'm going to place has a likely chance of winning. I know the reality very well, which keeps me grounded and not destitute, but a little swagger to the game keeps me sharp.

Congratulations to Sterwins and his connections for setting a new course record of 1:38.99. The fractions were blazing and Rahy's Attorney wilted at the end.

Race 7 WO: The Connaught Cup Grade III; 1 1/16 mile on Ontario Turf for 4 YOs and Up.

I added video to the previous post on my post race analysis of The Arlington Classic.

Turk Out!

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