Sunday, May 10, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Raceday May 9, 2009: The Peter Pan Stakes and Mervyn Leroy Handicap

Race 9 BEL: The Peter Pan Stakes Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs

I did some quick math before the race and didn't think the exatca bet was worth chasing, so no money was wagered. One of the things I do well as a horseplayer is knowing when a bet just isn't worth wagering. The result of this race were pretty much what the betting public thought it would be; The chalk took Win money and the second most wagered horse Placed. The exacta paid $17.00, but I would have spent at least $10 to work in some longer odd combinations, so my non-bet was a good bet.

Charitable Man ran a very professional race as the video shows. Of all the starters, Charitable Man showed the most promise for a start in the Belmont Stakes.

Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.

You can be right and wrong in the same handicap. I felt strongly that Rail Trip would fall short. I did not like the way he faded in the Santana Mile and I was expecting a similar trip. It happened. I expected Dakota Phone to stay near Rail Trip but not have the gumption to pass him. It happened. I expected Aggie Engineer and Ball Four to set a blistering pace and then Ball Four showing age to drop to the back and Aggie Engineer to hold off any challengers. It happened, sorta.

I was curious what Trainer Biancone was thinking with Ball Four. Regardless of what you think of his past transgressions, the man prepared Ball Four well and nailed a nice Grade II win in the process. Aggie Engineer? He's only four, he'll have time to try again.

I placed $4 only in bets, following my handicap exactly. I had a 6-4-1 Tri and a 6-4 Exacta. They were low priced, reasoned and wrong. Handicapping can be like that.

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