It's just numbers and pattern recognition. While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet.
Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction. I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing. That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses. It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations. I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there. Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about.
Bias. Avoid the biases
Authority Bias: Morning Line or TV Personality picks.
Bandwagon Effect: Putting aside my fan instincts.
Confirmation Bias: Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely.
Recency: Important, but not everything. Where are these athlete's in their cycle?
You'll find the Race Replay here at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet.
As I said prerace, Xigera was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race. The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that Xigera deserved short odds, but look at Defining Purpose, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds. I thought she could match Xigera early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't). Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment. That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta.
If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50. It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example. Undervalued Asset was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f. Foggy Night was slow overall but had early speed. Julia Shining has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does Peak Popularity. You see these sorts of patterns every week. A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections.
Xigera, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch. Everyone else, what is the plan?
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August. Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away. I've already started Breeders' Cup video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and The Mother Goose at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me. Why? These runners, most of who are Breeders' Cup eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend. It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October. I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3. There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of Peak Popularity, the $625,000 Occult, the $225,000 Julia Shining and the $190,000 Xigera. I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers. Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description, and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns. I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know.
Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video. Let's get after it!
Let's start with video of the runner's last starts.
The Cotillin G1: 1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX; 23 September 2023; Foggy Night/1, Occult/5, Defining Purpose/7
Seneca Overnight Race 9 23 September 2023: 1 1/16 on Fast Dirt
Allowance $115K N1X; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt: Peak Popularity/2
The Alabama G1; SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; Julia Shining/3 Defining Purpose/7
The Gallant Bloom G2: BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; Undervalued Asset/4
I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance.
Xigera is the most impressive to me. In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California. We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can." That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out. Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well. Heavy chalk.
Defining Purpose cannot be overlooked. A good place at 14-1 odds in The Alabama before a flat Cotillion in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the Indiana Oaks. McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing. Will keep pace early and possibly be better late.
Occult is a bit of a wild card. Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet. Destroyed a pretty weak Monmouth Oaks field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds. Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the Cotillion. Went off at 27-1 in the Acorn at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to Pretty Mischievous. What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her. Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger.
I have similar thoughts on Julia Shining: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December. Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the Alabama. The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez. Dart throw as to which filly shows up.
Undervalued Asset is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race. I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire.
So what do I do with all this? I like Xigera a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%) in my fair odds chart. I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5. I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8. I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.
If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup. The circle of life in a horse players year.
I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.
The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023
Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).
Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from?
Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts.
Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win.
The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.
Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire). He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.
I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and Stone Age for $12.
And inThe Travers:
The Jim DandyG2; 1 1/8milesover sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.
The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023
The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023
The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023
Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023
The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.
Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.
I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is Disarm. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.
$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.
Have fun friends, Turk Out.
I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction. Today's focus is on Woodbine's The King Edward Grade 2. How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8. That's what makes the blogging interesting. I generally use the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a DRF Formulator Past Performance card. I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap. I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time. I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.
So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap. I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.
Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar
Let's get after it!
I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it: I see Treason, War Bomber and Shirl's Speight as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class.
While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling: I'm going to wheel War Bomber OVER Treason, Shirl's Speight, Pao Alto and Lucky Score, a $2 Exacta for $8. Nothing complicated. I liked War Bomber leaving The Connaught Cup at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better.
Treason cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the Dominion Day G3. Watch War Bomber get dusted, now two efforts back from today.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons. My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.
The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep. I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985. I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies. Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival. It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million. I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies. I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent: They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan.
I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt? Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me. I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems. They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure. It's symbiotic: How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now. According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001. That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes. How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years? Don't think about it.
That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected. As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis, you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data. Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.
I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today. I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells. The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares. I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses. Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel.
It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race. Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race. Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here.
Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.
Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023. Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time. It's a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO, but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.
Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the 1 3/8ths United Nations G1
Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022. Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.
Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get. My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them. This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.
Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field. Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day. At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred. Have to respect.
Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf 1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July. 1 win in last 8 starts. 10 of 22 in exactas over grass. Solid late speed. Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today.
Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day. In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end. Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one. I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.
Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S. 7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July. The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.
What am I doing with this? A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20. I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril. I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return. That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today. The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga. I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy. It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy. Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed. Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm. I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life.
The 1986 Whitney was won by Lady's Secret, the first filly since the 40's to win. Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: Commentator in 2005 and 2008, Lawyer Ron in 2007, Tizway in 201, but 2010's Blame has me thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic and an unbeatable Zenyatta, America's favorite, beloved. Cody's Wish is on a Zenyatta like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his Blame today? I was there watching in disbelief that Zenyatta, bad start and all, did not catch Blame that cold night in Churchill Downs. Does this happen to me again? Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences.
I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him. I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward. Let's get it on!
I'm expecting Fast Dirt. The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but Saturday looks good. It's a small field, six horses, so watch for scratches and changes here.
Just a few relevant videos with The Met Mile the most relevant.
8 July 2023: BEL; Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt
10 June 2023: BEL; Met Mile G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt
8 July 2023; PrM; Cornhusker Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
1 July 2023; EIP; Stephen Foster G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Whitney G1; 1 1/8 Miles
Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.
There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!
It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win. Cody's Wish morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite. Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses. As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him.
How I assemble my exacta? Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling Charge It OVER White Abarrio, Zandon and Cody's Wish, a $2 bet for $6. For real value, I think I should go Charge It OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that Giant Game or Last Samurai Place. I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap Charge It for White Abarrio who I think is improving. This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses. Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite. Yes, 7 out of 10 races, Cody's Wish walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10.
Have fun friends. Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of rowdy degenerate gamblers, I hope to see some of you there.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on older horses running over a route of grass, with exacta bet constructions. I choose not to play a rather soggy day our East, and while I was interested in The Bowling Green at Saratoga, my concern for the turf conditions made up my mind for me. Del Mar's Eddie Reed G2 is an interesting nine horse field. My first time through the PP's and I didn't have a single horse that I thought deserved chalk or even a Turk rating of A. 700 plus handicaps blogged over 15 years and I don't remember a Grade 2 I was this torn on. It's not that the field is bereft of good horses, and in fact Turk favorites Masteroffoxhounds and Dicey Mo Chara are in the field, just little excited me about current form of any of the runners. We'll get to that. I also don't want to sound like I'm complaining in any way, this is what I like: Big Field, Light Chalk, Chaos. All those things can equal big rewards.
Experience helps. I approach every race with the same general mindset and I handicap in a very consistent manner. A review of Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Recency, J/T stats, Track, Surface and Pace. My red ink squiggles mean something to me, may not mean anything to you, but that's fine. I never look at Morning Lines before settling on my handicap. I found that they biased me, especially in my published handicaps. I've matured as a handicapper to never let someone else's opinion to influence me. I've been handicapping for over 35 years, I'm at the peak of my game, and it's this mindset that helps me identify underlays and overlays. The problem with bet construction this far in advance of the race is the lack of live odds to fine tune my thinking. I do that, I'm just sensitive to changing my bets radically from what I blog. A bald, middle aged nerd is nothing without credibility.
Speaking of Saratoga, Turk will be in the (club)house next Saturday. It's been a loonnng time. Let's get after it.
The Eddie Reed G2; 1 1/8 Miles over Turf for 3 YO and Up.
Many runners here enter off The G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita 2 months earlier.
Mackinnon last time out a beaten 4th at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf OC $80K 3 BEL 4 July.
Dicey Mo Chara, Masterofforhounds and Gold Phoenix ran in a pace slog Charles Whittingham G2 at 1 1./4 Miles at Santa Anita 8 April 2023. Gold Phoenix came back 29 May in the Shoemaker Mile and ran poorly cutting back two panels. Dicey Mo Chara has run back twice, running three graded stakes in a 6 week period. Masteroffoxhounds took a break to freshen and has been working sharply for D'Amato since late June.
There was a time last year when I thought Count Again at 7 YO was the best Turf Miler in the US. First race since last year's Shoemaker Mile. What form? Who knows what the 8 YO has left. Trainer D'Amato has taken 100 horses over the past year back from a +180 day layoff and has won 21 times.
D'Amato has four going in this race. Does anyone think that's healthy for racing?
So what top do with this?
I'm going to $2 Exacta wheel Mackinnon OVER Dicey Mo Chara, Masteroffoxhounds, Cabo Spirit, Count Again and possibly Handy Dandy or Balnikhov, either a $10 or $12 dollar bet that should pop a good payout. It's far from an iron pipe lock, but this is gambling. I like Doug O'Neill running the 4 YO son of American Pharoah back in under four weeks for his 2nd off a long layoff. I like his early speed and I think returning to firm turf may expose a new level of top speed at the end. Speculative.
A $2 Win bet on Handy Dandy isn't out the question either. 5 of 6 Win/Place at Del Mar, 8 of 13 W/P over Turf. Running back 3 weeks after a solid Allowance Mile win. Value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions. I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races. I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time. My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz. My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats. I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context. I block and I tackle. What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap. I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.
Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York. I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended. I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger. It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.
Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.
Let's get after it!
Connaught Cup G2: WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up
Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier. That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines. In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay. Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the 1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.
Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed. 20-1 Morning Line, 3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two 2023 starts. I like for a win bet at the right price. Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!
Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.
That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30. Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f. Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.
Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse. The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023. Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.
It's a deep race. Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June. Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win. 5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.
My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on. Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July. Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.
So what am I doing with all this? A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1. My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber,Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake. I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 Molly Pitcher, The G1T United Nations and the G1 Haskell. There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor. It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed. As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world. That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day,
Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now. I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day. If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12 or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14.
Let's get after it!
Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6
In race 8, I have Late Speed with Proxy/6 and Early Speed with Whelen Springs/7. I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance.
If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single. In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling Fore Harp/9 with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up. slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.
I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 Molly Pitcher I'm singling Search Results/4. Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form.
In the Grade 1 United Nations, it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2. Was a bit fractious in the gate in the Manhattan last time out. I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, Catnip/3 and Planetario (Brz)/6.Catnip is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 Monmouth last time out.
In the Haskell I'm not looking towards the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. Next time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back. I really like Salute the Stars/3; Winner last time out here, improving and value. Geaux Rocket Ride/1, Tapit Trice/5, Extra Anejo/7 and Arabian Knight/8 are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest. Great betting races in this Pick 6. I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!
Finally, in Race 13, Boston Princess/2, Cecile/7 and Fortineno (Ire)/9 are my choices as best of the field.
Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping. I'll unwind it tomorrow.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.
I must admit something: In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park. I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it. A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit. I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land.
Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga. The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.
The weather is a wild card. It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail. Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.
This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now. These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races. I like recency video handicapping. I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion. Most people don't have the time for that. I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity. I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.
Anyways, Let's get after it!
Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles
Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles. The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners. I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses. You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six. I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so. This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.
Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously. The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely. No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.
I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate. Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed. Three wins straight. 8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023. Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late. Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.
I threw a blanket over my next group. The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price. Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while. Training very sharply.
Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated. Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023. Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out. 5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.
Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip. excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap. Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April. 7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.
I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy. No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance. 3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10. 9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts. I expect him to falter (famous last words).
I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 22 April 2023; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.
Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt
Blame Stakes G3: CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt
Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt
So what to do with all this? I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price. I also don't want to play it too safe. Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place. A $2 bet. Sorry to disappoint with something better than that. I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.
I have a correction to make to: I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day. Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018. The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and place exacta bets.
Happy Memorial Day. We honor our war dead and those who gave the greatest sacrifice in the name of serving their country. This blog is written by a war veteran. My Dad, and my Grandfather, were both war veterans. I can only speak for myself, but war rhetoric has no place in modern American politics. A disproportionate amount of middle class and lower income men and women, whose parents are not politicians will die needlessly in the chess game of elites who have big mouths but lack guts. This blog is apolitical, but fiercely anti-war. Stop the rhetoric, Democrat and Republican, and defuse global tensions before its too late.
Today let's take a look at the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. I would have liked a slightly bigger field, but there is some real quality runners in this field. Let's get after it!
Royal Heroine G2; 1 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
The Wilshire G3; 30 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
Buena Vista Stakes G2; March 4 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Good Turf
RJ Frankel G3; 31 December 2022 SA 1 1/8 Miles on Good Turf
Allowance $99K; 21 April 2023 KEE 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf
As I've said many times, I don't handicap with the Morning Lines. I don't look at the Morning Lines before I prepare my Fair Odds, and by then I have already handicapped. I was shocked to see 5-2 on Viareggio (Ire). I posted the Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) 4 YO last race, a $99K Allowance at Keeneland in Mid April. Solid late close. A really good ride by Gaffalione who isn't up today for Trainer Brendan Walsh. First time at Santa Anita. 4 of 12 in exacta on Turf, all wins. 1 Win in 1 start at distance. Seemed a bit rich at this point in her career.
Queen Goddess to me is the top choice. I'm choosing to look past her Jenny Wiley, which the Turk picked her third in and rightly so, as she was in deep like the rest of the field that day against a very sharp In Italian (GB). Cutting back, the 5 YO purchased for a whopping $1.5 MM and career earnings of $770,000 (sounds like my bankroll to winnings ratio!) is 7 of 10 in turf exactas, 3 of 3 in SA exactas, and last outing at SA a win on New Years Eve in the RJ Frankel.
I think any of Macadamia (Brz) (slight edge) or Viareggio (Ire) and Quattroelle (Ire) could hit the exacta. Macadamia ran April 30 at 1 Mile at SA in The Wilshire and ran exceptionally well. The 5 YO seems to have found a new level this year. Quattroelle beat Macadamia two back in the G2 Buena Vista, also 1 Mile at SA. 9 of 16 in Turf exactas, 7 of 11 in SA Turf exactas, 1 win in 4 tries at 1 Mile. Viareggio is a flyer, but I'm not a big fan of taking a flyer on an overhyped, over bet, 2nd time NA start horse.
If I'm looking for bigger value, Trainer Carla Gaines Closing Remarks: A win two back in the Royal Heroine at 1 Mile at SA in early April before faltering late as the chalk in The Wilshire. Same early and Late Timeform Pace Figs as Quattroelle. The 5 YO is off to a good 2023 but is 7 of 13 in the exacta at SA, 4 of 5 in the exacta at the distance and 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf.
School Dance isn't my choice to back in the exacta but not out of question for Tri or Exotics. I tossed Bellamore who does have a good late turn of foot.
$2 Bet, Queen Goddess/Macadamia OVER Closing Remarks and Quatroelle for $8 and my alternative is Closing Remarks OVER Quattroelle, Viareggio, Macadamia and Queeen Goddess , a $2 Bet for $8. I think I like my alternative better for value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets. There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests. I like big fields and horses with a lot of data. Today's Preakness offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Mage, starting his fifth race.
I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago. It was cold and rained. The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield. My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning. Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken. I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still. I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track. Last memory of Preakness 138? I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event. He was surrounded by women and dripped suave. La Vida Loca, DJ.
Mage is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from First Mission who scratched on Black Eyed Susan Friday. At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.
I think National Treasure has a solid chance to win. Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire. I have a soft spot for well bred Quality Road's.
Red Route One will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post.
Blazing Sevens has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step.
Perform, from the six spot, is a Good Magic colt like Blazing Sevens, and has good tactical speed but overall slower than most. Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.
As we are gambling, I'm going to put National Treasure and Red Route One in the win spot, with National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens and Perform in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks. If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear. Covering Mage in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment. That doesn't work.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!
So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April
I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.
I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire). This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
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