Sunday, January 11, 2009

The Nomination is in: January 11, 2009

The Santa Ysabel G3 at Santa Anita Race 8: 1 1/16 miles on Santa Anita fake dirt for 3 YO fillies.

The Turk is looking at this coming out party for 3 YO fillies at Santa Anita. After spending some time studying the PP, I found myself making arguments for horses based on mostly work in the morning. It's the time of the year where we gage current form with horses who took the holidays off. I like to treat works as part of the puzzle, but for many of these horses, it's the biggest piece on the table.

One of the first things that grabs my attention is the three Baffert trainees in this race. Jemmealey, owned by Zayat Stables, has a big price tag on his head and the expectations must be proportional. Previously a Mott trainee , I like this horse's work very much. I'm expecting long odds and I'll be watching that tote closely leading up to post. Yeah, I'm a bit excited at the prospects, but it is premature, a bit like the Punch Rare Corojo I've been carrying in my pocket humidor around for days waiting to smoke. Hmmmm....I digress.

Lady Lumberjack is a part hunch. This 3 YO Forestry daughter (Big Green Monkey fan here!) has been working well in the morning and lost by a head as the chalk in her last go out. She's still a maiden and she'll have Bejarano up again for the third time out.

Toro Bonito is a horse I have bet and lost on more then once, a bit rare for a light bettor like me to say about a freshly minted 3 YO. I really liked her chances in the Sharp Cat and she lost by 1 length to Pamona Ball. She ran against some good ones in the G1 Starlet in December and she has worked well since then. Winning just once in six starts, you'd like to see more will to win.

I like this grade and class of horse at this time of the year because you just don't know what you have. All, or nothing, could be revealed today as far as 3 YO Fillies go in California. You gotta watch, even if the handicap is so-so.

Mrs. Turk likes Lady Lumberjack and Little Turk is in for Century Park.


Amateurcapper said...

Oh, I hope you had at least a 2 spot on Little Turk's pick...
BTW, decent run from TURK yesterday...did your name proud.

The Turk said...

Yup...I learned to always bet the Little Turk's picks. His ROI kicks mine. There is nothing like a nine year old handicapping wiz to keep you modest.