Sunday, January 18, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 17, 2009

Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Mr. Prospector Stakes G3, 6 furlongs on dirt for 4 YOs and Up

Ikigai came into the race of a blazing 107 Beyer in a 5 furlong race at Calder and a winning Jock/Trainer percentage of 37%, and good but not great work at 4 furlongs. The odds rolled all over the place on this horse leading up to post, but he went off as the bettors 5th choice in a 7 horse race. It pays to be contrarian at the track when you are right. Ikigai was clearly the best on the track today, winning by 2 1/4 lengths.

The fact that Ikigai and Rollers came in one/two was interesting, but reading the tea leaf known as a Past Performance, the clues were there. Rollers had a four race upper 90/100 Beyer streak going until he turned in a dud in the slop at the Big A in November. Rollers turned in some very nice work, a recent 5 furlongs in :59. Tagg and Garcia had the classy 4 year old primed and we'll look for him again.

What does this mean for Black Seventeen? Apologists like myself blamed SA for his fall off, but the 5 YO is clearly on a cold streak. He could use some good ol' fashioned New York State dirt, but brother you gotta wait like everyone else for that, which means he needs to find his game.

He's So Chic had a bad trip and he'll be back.

I hope it wasn't the end for Kelly's Landing. The 8 year old has had a great career, capped with a win in Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, with none other than Frankie Dettori up.

I had two low risk, decent reward bets placed. I had two straight supers with Black Seventeen/He's So Chic/Ikigai/Rollers and Black Seventeen/Ikigai/Rollers/He's So Chic.. Only have to hit a few of those a year the way I bet to stay black, but it wasn't to be.

And at Santa Anita , Race 7, The San Rafael, G3. 1 Mile on Santa Anita imitation dirt for 3 YOs.

The eight horse field scratched its way into a five horse field and the Turk decided to stay on the sidelines. I still like my pick of Ryehill Dreamer. I think he was inserted here to catch the bettors off guard. Our fellow Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance member Amateur Capper wrote me to say that Ryehill Dreamer still had a long coat in the paddock. Shake the coat out big fella, there are races I know you can win at SA, Dmr and HOL.

So what surprised me? The Pamplemousse wiring the race surprised me. I said pre race that this horse was a professional, consistent performer. He ran at 1 1/16 very well in mid December and had a 3f :35 and a 5f 1:00 3/5's and a 4f in :47 his last three practice runs.

I was not surprised by Square Eddie. He's now 2 of 7 lifetime, but 7 of 7 in the money. The Turk thinks winner's win, especially at this early point in a career. I'm not saying Square Eddie is not a winner, I'm saying if he was as professional as The Pamplemousse he'd be better off. Horses mature at different rates, just like us.

2009 San Rafael

1 comment:

SaratogaSpa said...

The Pamplemousse surprised me also. I was impressed the way he took it up a notch when Square Eddie came up behind up around the turn into the final stretch. He seems very big also-still so early but a horse to watch.