Saturday, January 10, 2009

The Nominations Are In: January 10, 2009

The Turk is looking at two races today.

Fair Grounds: The Lecomte G3, 1 Mile on dirt for 3 YOs.

The Turk has taken a fancy to handicapping these races with just a basic PP and without the morning lines in front of him. There are some fine online handicapper's out there who will take these exercises from cradle to grave for you, handicapping the race and then providing a betting strategy. In last week's declaration that I consider the betting strategy portion the sexy piece, and the fact that I'm not that interested in being too sexy, I'm just going to focus in 2009 on analyzing the field and taking the process right up to the point when you go to the window and lay down the cash. I digress.

I don't see a differentiation between the top five horses in this race. Professor Z owns the races highest lifetime Beyer. Indygo Mountain has a lot of class, has a load of promise, but almost nothing but a 1 mile dirt run at CD that he won his last time out. Friesan Fire has G2 and G3 experience but no results. He ran well his last work and the distance won't faze him. if I'm looking for value, I'm looking for him. Uno Mas and Big Push could factor in.

Because I don't see much between these freshly minted 3 YO's, I'm leaning towards an exatca that includes Friesan Fire with one of my A's or B's. Being conservative sometimes means not losing as much.

The Little Turk and Mrs. Turk are both jinxing me and taking a 2 dollar flyer on Friesen Fire.

The second race of today is Race 8 at Santa Anita, The San Pasqual Handicap G2, 1 1/16 miles for 4 YOs on Santa Anita's version of faux dirt.

This is a race to appreciate just as a horse fan. I think most money will favor Cowboy Cal and Well Armed . Of the two, I think Cowboy Cal has the best current form. Basing picks on works can be tricky, but I like the works of Mostacolli Mort. If I am going to be agressive, it will be on this horse for anything >4-1.

Ball Four, Slew's Tizzy and Past the Point all are capable of being in the money. I think it drops off after those five, but Noble Court has a chance to unseat someone and maybe sneak into the exotic plays.

Mrs Turk likes Past the Point and The Little Turk is favoring Slew's Tizzy.

And finally, the Turk's favorite horse,Turk, runs today at Santa Anita in Race 3. The Baffert trainee came flying late to just miss breaking his maiden. The entire Turk Clan obviously will be favoring this 3 YO.

1 comment:

Amateurcapper said...

FRESIAN FIRE was a prompt 2-1. Two favorites in a row w/ WELL ARMED? Good luck.