Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic-Part 2

Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.

We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!

Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.

No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.



Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.

Working well at Churchill Downs this week.

2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup



Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.

Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) 8 October 2011



Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011



Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011



Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.

The Super Derby (G2)



The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.



Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.



Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.

Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.



Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.

Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.



Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Breeders' Cup Betting Targets and The Mile Grade 1

Is there another figure more synonymous with the Breeders' Cup Mile than Freddie Head? Five times this man stood in the winner's circle, twice as a jockey aboard Miesque and then the last three years as trainer of Goldikova, a mare requiring no introduction in the racing world.

The pre entries are in and the advanced past performances are available for next weekend two day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Where do you start? Well, that's a personal decision, but for me, I start at the betting menu. There are 15 Breeders' Cup races, 10 of which are Grade I events, as well as five juvenile races. That's quite a bit of handicapping to do. Then there is the weather wildcard. Will it rain, will the track be sealed, sloppy or fast? Will the turf be yielding, American style fast, or a bit soft like our Euro cousins like? Some of these questions you just can't answer one week out but what you can do is prepare.

Preparation for the Ol' Turk means identifying which races I intend to handicap, setting my betting budget, and coming up with a betting strategy. It also means doing some mundane things like getting my bet preparation worksheets together. I know that I don't process the tote board information by sight, I have to write it down 25 minutes to post and counting down to 8 minutes. I watch the trending as I jot down onto my pre printed worksheets the odds off the tote and I also have my pre printed slots where I write out my bets and what I expect the bet to cost. This may sound wildly anal, and most likely it is, but I take positive ROI seriously and this is my personal system of preparing my bets. I didn't mention handicapping; that's all done well in advance of planning the bets. I have my base handicap and I seldom stray from it, as the "think long, think wrong" axiom has proven true too many times in my history. I do my homework in the quiet of my kitchen and away from the bustle of the track and when I get to the track I can focus on the post parade and the tote board and not concern myself at all with handicapping.

My betting targets almost any time of the year involves Pick Three and Pick Fours; That said, I don't particularly like juvenile races, and the Juvenile Fillies on Friday and The Juvenile on Saturday are plum in the middle of Pick Fours. Another consideration in Breeders 'Cup races are the field sizes; I may need to go six deep to hit the Superfecta and the bets will be more expensive than I'd prefer. These two thoughts combined together make my decision easy; I'm skipping the horizontal bets next week and I'm going to stick to vertical targets, the Trifecta/Superfecta and the grand daddy of vertical betting, The Super High Five.

The Super High Five; There may only be one thing I daydream more about. It wasn't always this way. Earlier this year it wasn't even on my radar, that is until my Preakness post race analysis when I realized I had it cold. The bet paid almost $50,000, and I didn't place the bet. Ugh. I got some redemption on Arlington Millions Day when I won my first Super High Five Bet, and hitting it on Breeders' Cup weekend would be an accomplishment that I would treasure in my bettors resume.

The Super High Five is being offered for The Distaff (Ladies Classic)and the Classic.

My handicapping will be directed at the following;

The Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), The Filly and Mare Turf (G1), The Distaff (G1), The Dirt Mile (G1), The Turf (G1), The Mile (G1) and The Classic (G1). Seven races, five days of prep time left before I drive the 400 plus miles to Louisville. Let's get after it!

The Mile Grade 1 has thirteen pre-entrants and we'll study them all understanding some may not be in the starting gate next Saturday.

Byword (GB) is a five year old Juddmonte Farms runner trained by Andre Fabre.



3 wins in four ties at the distance and 7 wins in 14 starts over grass, 10 of 14 in the money. Winless in last two Grade 1 efforts, comes here off Grade 2 Qutar Prix Dollar.




Compliance Officer is trained by Bruce Brown for owner Thomas La Marca. The NY Bred 5 Year Old gelded son of Officer is 15 of 20 in the money on turf, 1 win in three starts at the turf mile, and has a career $409,000 earnings. Compliance Officer was claimed in May 2011 and has five straight wins but no graded stakes action.



Goldikova won't be mistaken for a NY State Bred. That said, he's a fine horse but this is a big step up.

Courageous Cat is the five year old son of Storm Cat, trained by Bill Mott. The chalk his last time out in the Woodbine Mile, nipped at the wire by Tullare the colt who's also entered here.



10 of 12 lifetime in the money over turf with six wins, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance with 3 wins and 2 places, 3 of 3 in 2011 in the money.

The Shoemaker Mile G1 July 2011



Trainer Mott wins 15% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layoffs and 20% of his 31-60 day layoffs. The horse appears to be training well.

What does Court Vision need to do to be retired? The Dale Roman's trained horse has had a rough 2011 and has only one win in last ten starts, the 2010 Woodbine Mile.

2 wins in 7 starts at the distance, winless in 4 tries at CD with a place and a show, including yielding turf Place by a neck in 2010 Turf Classic, losing to General Quarters.

I think it would take a reversal of fortune to see this old warrior in the top four.



Get Stormy is the 5 year old son of Stormy Atlantic and trained by Thomas Bush. The Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland includes Sidney's Candy and Gio Ponti.



10 wins in 25 turf starts and 8 wins/places out of 12 starts at the distance. 6 of 7 in the money in 2011 with back to back Grade 1 wins in April and May.

Here's the Baruch (G2) at SAR in August with Turallure over turf rated good. It's an extra furlong and the cut back may be good for him.



Gio Ponti; The six year old Christopher Clement trainee was struggling this year until winning the Shadwell Turf Mile in early October. A Place to Cape Blanco in the Arlington Millions, a Place to Cape Blanco in the Man O War in July at 1 3/8 miles, and a disappointing Show in the Manhattan. He went to Dubai and perhaps it just took him some time to recover. Unfortunately for Cape Blanco, he can't be here, I doubt Gio Ponti minds.

Clement wins 20% of his turf starts and 20% of his routes and Gio Ponti has earned over $6,000,000 lifetime. A real star.

Speaking of stars, Goldikova (Ire). An up and down year but her expectations are so high it's almost impossible for her to live up to them. Six grade one wins in last 10 starts, 14 wins in 19 tries at the distance, 19 of 19 at the distance in the money, 25 of 26 in the money over turf lifetime with 17 wins and $6,900,000 in earnings.

Qutar Prix de la Foret (G1) 2 October 2011; a head bob loss.



Just for fun, not much for homework purposes....



Jeranimo is the five year old son of Congaree. He's coming in for trainer Michael Bender(18% winner on 73 starts) off his career best Beyer in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) where he beat Mr. Commons, a race that I cannot find embeddable video for.

One win in three tries at a turf mile. 3 wins on Turf in 8 starts, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, 1 win in 7 starts in 2011. Most of the year, rather unimpressive. Here in the One Mile Arcadia (G2) he took a big late run to get up for Show.



He never fired in his next start, The Inglewood (G3), but came out of that and a well beaten Place in the G1 Eddie Read at 9 panels. Acclimation ran quite a race and Caracortado hasn't been impressive in this series but I digress.



Out of the Eddie Read, a dismal Pacific Classic (G1)and then the Oak Tree Mile. He's in much deeper waters here with his career $660,000 and six career wins in 22starts.

Mr. Commons would be oddly placed here if he starts; the 3 year old colt biggest win was a in a restricted stakes race, the Oceanside $112K. Was the beaten chalk to Jeranimo in the Oak Tree Mile. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with 2 wins, 1 win in 3 starts at the distance, 6 of 7 in the money in 2011. Started in the Preakness but didn't fire and also started Santa Anita Derby.

Very big step up to go here.

Sidney's Candy will be making his sixth start of 2011 and his fourth with Trainer Pletcher. His last race was the previously discussed Shadwell Turf Mile. Before that was a dud of a 7F race, the Forego, over dirt (great move...wished I was smart).



Just before that a good turf race, the Fourstar Dave (G2); Look for the grey, Turallure. :50 2/5ths opening 1/2 mile, ugh.



No wins in 3 starts at the distance over turf. 2 turf wins in 5 starts. He set the pace in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile before fading. Mixed feelings, liked him more in Sadler's barn, seems like he wasn't managed very dynamically for WinStar.

Strong Suit is trained by Richard Hannon for Qatar Bloodstock Ltd. The three year old son of Rahy campaigns in Europe and comes in off two Grade 2 wins at 7 furlongs, a straight and a right hander, over good turf. Three wins in last four. No left turn courses so far and only one try at 8 panels, the Grade 1 Prix Jean Prat, a show finish.





8 of 9 in the money over turf but winless at the distance and only one try. Are American turf runners that disrespected that its worth the airfare to send Strong Suit over? Well, respect is earned on the track.

Turallure has shown up in many videos here, impressive in almost all. Along with Get Stormy and Goldikova, only wins in the field at Churchill Downs. Training sharply at Keeneland. The 4 year old son of Wando has shown a very wicked late turn of foot for trainer Charles Lopresti. 2 wins at the distance in three starts and 9 of 11 in the money over grass.

And finally, Zoffany (Ire), Aidan O'Brien's 3 year old Dansili colt. No wins in three starts at the distance, with 2 Places. 9 of 12 in the money over turf with 5 wins. Never in contention was the running line in the Shadwell Turf Mile. His last euro effort, Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) in August at 6.5 furlongs he was trounced. Last win was in August 2010, G1 Phoenix Stakes at six panels.

His claim to fame was staying close to Frankel in the St. James Stakes (G1) in June.



My inital thoughts are:

A Group: Turallure, Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Courageous Cat

B Group: Byword (GB) , Jeranimo, Sidney's Candy

C Group: Strong Suit, Zoffany (Ire) , Get Stormy (B?)

D Group: Court Vision, Compliance Officer, Mr. Commons (C?)

Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic

That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.

I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?

I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.

Let's Get after it!

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Turf

The 'Ol Turk will be handicapping and hunting for exotic payout Nirvana at the Breeders' Cup, and Handicappers Homework before the Past Performances are printed and red ink is applied to them aids the process.

It goes without saying, the Europeans add a real layer of complexity to the handicapping. Speaking as a bettor, I think it helps that there is a real visceral feeling out there that the Europeans on turf are vastly superior. Maybe they are, and let the big money flow to them, it will be our job with the homework to know as much as we can about them so we can determine which North American runner has a chance, as an overlay, of taking down the house.

Nathaniel, trained by John Gosden in the King George and Queen E Stakes. Caution, poor Rewilding is seen breaking down. If you have a moment, read the comments of Trainer John Gosden, one of the Turk's favorite conditioners. I admire this man greatly.



Sea Moon is trained by Sir Michael Stout. The colt would be coming in off a Show finish in the St. Leger.



I've found some comments related to Sea Moon's stamina, which Trainer Stoute seems to dismiss and the connections intentions for the Breeders' Cup seem to be firmed up as well.

St Nicholas Abby is trained by Aidan O'Brien. The Montjeu colt was fifth in the Arc. Don't look for the filly Danedream in Louisville but Treasure Beach we'll get too.



All this does is state the obvious, that with defections, we may see some horses in the Turf that will be looking at the race as chalk free and opportunity city. We have to keep in mind that not every European sent here is top tier.

Aidan O'Brien's other expected starter is Treasure Beach who is starting in Woodbine on October 16th. Some pretty darn good horses, including possible turf starter Dean's Kitten, went into the gate on Arlington Millions Day and here is Treasure Beach taking the Secretariat Stakes



And another strong Treasure Beach effort, the Irish Derby.



Winchester would be coming in off a horrid Joe Hirsch, but Belmont that day was a bog with no real turf pace. Look for Dean's Kitten again. Don't worry handicapping poor Cape Blanco, that fine horse was retired after this effort because of injury.



Winchester was much stronger in the Sword Dancer. Look for Teak's North as well, another possible Turf starter.



And the United Nations, Teak's North punches his ticket for the Turf.



And speaking of punching tickets, Celtic New Year earned a trip to the Turf with a win in Del Mar, in the Del Mar Handicap. A great trip but really gutty holding off Bourbon Bay.



What I've taken away from this is so far I see no real favorite and I'm sure the next week will be interesting, as some folks out there who didn't consider this race may not start to look at this as the wide open affair it is shaping up to be and may take a swing at it. Building a Superfecta out of this may be really challenging but we could be looking at a five figure Super so its worth the try.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 15, 2011; The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland

I'm here on this day of rage to represent the 1%; The 1% of horseplayers who are getting phat off the pari mutuel losses of the oppressed 99% betting public. You poor, downtrodden masses, lined up at the betting windows like lemmings, The Ol' Turk is a benevolent 1% type, offering my Truck Nutz Iron Pipe Locks of the Week for free. Win some bread money and any left over, do something humanitarian like save a horse.

All kidding aside, there are some pari mutuel winnings just sitting there waiting to be had each week. You have to pick your marks and you have to know when to just sit back and be a horse fan with no skin in the game. The card in today's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is stacked and earns its Grade 1 status; Winter Memories, Together(Ire) ,Summer Soiree, the Breeders' Cup Champ, More Than Real; Wow. We're going to handicap this and have some fun, but there are much easier races this weekend to beat the odds.

Let's get after it today!




Before we go to deep, I pulled up some key race videos that you should take a strong look at. The Fillies and Mares continue to be just a wildly exciting and deep group. These are some of the more sterling runs of the year.

The Del Mar Oaks Grade 1 (20 Aug 2011)



The First Lady Grade 1 (8 Oct 2011)



The Garden City Grade 1 (17 September 2011)



From the outside, with Ramon Dominguez up is Summer Soiree, the Del Mar Oaks champ. The War Front daughter has 4 wins in 5 tries in 2011 including two sizzling turf efforts. Off since August 20, Trainer Motion is 25% off this layoff and a 25% winner Won Last Start. Not sure who she beat at at Del Mar as Nereid and Star Billing are a lower tier here.

The Turk loves Winter Memories and wants to see her win here, but the bettor in me tries to keep an even keel about these things. The beautiful El Prado (Ire) daughter has 6 wins in 8 starts over turf and her last race she closed like a freight train with a turn of foot that defines turn of foot. There should be plenty of speed for her to focus on over the last 1/8 of a mile.

Together (Ire)is a Galileo (Ire) daughter trained by Aidan O'Brien runs back on one week layoff after a willing Place , 1 1/2 lengths off the winner of the First Lady (as an aside, don't cha love the TRACKUS video feeds!. A 21 day layoff in September saw her come back sluggish and an 8 day layoff as a 2 YO was similar results. No wins in 7 starts this season.

Kathmanblu is a very honest girl with a turf master, Leparoux up. 9 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, she'll be in the exotic mix.

It may be time to say that More Than Real had a great trip in the Breeders' Cup but has never stepped forward after that. 2nd lowest lifetime Beyer, never breaking 90 in 6 races. Don't expect much here.

Trainer Shirreffs has two talented girls here with Star Billing and Nereid. Both are off the layoff since the Del Mar Oaks, a break Shirreffs wins off of 14% of the time. Star Billing is 5 of 5 in the money on turf but no wins at the distance. Nereid won 3 of 4 starts over turf and 4 of 4 in the money, but also no wins at the distance.

So what to make of all this? Nereid , Marketing Mix and More Than RealSummer Soiree may rate a bit back after breaking from the outside. Kathmanblu will position in a stalk, 2 lengths back, and a blanket of closers will lay as much as 3 back with Star Billing, Together and Winter Memories all watching each other. This race will be settled in the final hops and i'm leaning towards Winter Memories. I'll assemble a superfecta with the tote board chalk in the top four.

Have fun with it friends. Turk Out!

Keeneland Analysis after Day 2

The old Keeneland Tote Board; Be it new, old, analog, digital or scratched out in chalk, it doesn't matter, but as a horse player it pays to pay attention to it before and after the races.

I've taken a few different views of the races, broken down by Turf and Poly. I'm less interested in handicapping analysis and more focus is on what financial returns are being generated, specifically for the Superfecta, and what the ranking on the tote board was the top four finishers.

Let's get after it starting with Poly:





13 of the first 14 poly races had the Chalk finish in the top 4; Two of the three biggest Super payouts were keyed by the Chalk; The Winner with the lowest odds keyed the biggest Superfecta. The Average field size on POLY was 9.71 Starters.

Post One won 2 out of 14 races and was in the Superfecta 5 of 14 races.

7 races of the 14 poly races had 3 out of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta and the average pay out was $2,800. One race had 4 of 4 from the tote board rankings but still paid $724.

Of the 14 winners, 5 pressed the pace, 4 took a stalking trip and 5 closed like freight trains.

And now the Turf:





Six races on Turf, all raced on Firm turf. 4 Chalks made the Superfecta with 2 Chalk winners. The Average number of starters was 9.83 and Post 1 was 0 of 6 wins and only 1 of 6 in in Superfecta.

4 of the 6 races had 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta with the average payout $760.

Of the six winners, only one was pressing the pace at the top of the Stretch; 3 horses were in a stalking position of around 1 1/2 lengths back and 3 horses were closing about 2 back by the top of the stretch.

The sample size isn't large but what I glean is that chalk generally finishes in the top four and of the first 20 races, 12 of 20 had at least 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta.

Learn to keep your own data, data that helps you with either your handicapping or your bet structuring. I could think of many more data points I'd like to track, many of them based on handicapping. The most key item for me to research is how the morning line favorite and the Tote board Favorite lined up with The Ol' Turk's Chalk.

I hope someone found this as interesting as I do; I often talk shop with fellow bettors and without sounding like a pompous prick I try to stress that its this sort of post race analysis, which doesn't take long and normally I would do on a Wednesday night when I'm not handicapping, that really helps unlock who's winning and how well the bettors are pegging the winners.

I'd be remiss to not say that I am a big fan of Steve Byk and his At The Races show on XM Sirius Radio. Steve has a wonderful format and he gets some fantastic recurring guests as well as all the major players in the sport. Steve is one hell of a horse player and I respect him as a handicapper very much. Steve's also a very passionate guy and I finally got around to listening to Steve talk about Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds; Steve tastefully talked about the online horse racing community on Facebook which I am a minor member of, but Tim was almost the lynch pin of online horse racing fans, the catalyst that got many a good discussions going. I know almost two weeks after his death I miss his comments dearly. If you are interested you'll find Steve talking about Tim abround 5 minutes into the first hour at this link.

Life goes on for the living but Tim's memory will live on for a very long time.

Have fun friends with your handicapping; I have the Grade 1 Spinster lined up for tomrrow.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 7, 2011; Keeneland Fall Meet Opening Day

Friends, don't hate the Player! I'm not sure I could have scripted my gambling action on opening day at Keeneland any better than today unfolded. Handicap or Bet Structure? Both really. Simple boxed Superfectas using my base handicaps and being prepared enough to deal with seven scratches in race 7 is the story of the day.

Let's get after this:

Keeneland Race 7-8



I didn't have abundant time to prepare a bet strategy today because as opposed to those folks living down on Wall Street, I'm fully employed and earning my right to be indebted.

I kept it simple; Race 7 had a whopping seven scratches. I took my top four from my base handicap and boxed them and $455 later the strategy was proven adequate. I really thought Blues Street could win and I liked his place on the tote board as the bettors 3rd favorite. As he was my chalk, I was contrarian. In my mind this was a pretty straightforward and rather easy bet to make, but that's hindsight. The handicap was solid and I didn't need to over think it. They don't always break that way. I would have bet the same way even if the scratched horses had run, but the payout would have been better. Sigh.

Race 8 is where I feel my experience kicks in. Speaking of opposing view points I placed Flashpoint no higher than Show in my base handicap. He had been training lights out on the fake plastic for Trainer Ward but was racing on it for the first time. Always demand to see results first, don't bet an underlay that hasn't proven himself on the surface.

Prerace I expressed my intrigue in Hoofit (Nz). Not much on the PP's would point you to a win except a nice last race on the plastic at PID. The bettors had him 6th, I had him at least in Fourth. I took my top five and boxed them and walked off with $1,182.

I'm pretty pleased with the three hours of effort I put into these handicaps. This was a good day, and as a gambler you must understand they won't all be like this.

Have fun friends and thank you for making the launch of Turf so successful.

The Nomination Is In: October 7, 2011: Keeneland Opening Day Fall 2011

I love the beauty of Keeneland. I love the ebb and flow that Keeneland provides the racing calendar; the start of spring, the end of summer, like bookends on the turf racing season. I love the beauty of the track and the details that seem to pop out when you take time to just look. I'd like to rant about the fake plastic dirt, and I won't lie, I'd rather it was dirt, but it seems to play fair and it does allow for racing and handicapping in the sometimes horrible weather that can accompany these meets, so I'm going to say I don't mind it and have come to be as accepting of it here as I am Arlington, Woodbine and PID. Now Del Mar and Hollywood, don't get me started.

When I went looking for a picture that screamed Keeneland I found a clock, a majestic Rolex clock, taken by a wonderful writer, the talented Michigan Bred Claimer, Joe Nevills, who I thank for its use.

I handicapped a sequence of races that lead to a late Pick Three that finishes with the Grade 1 Alcibiades. i really dislike two year old racing and I just can't seem to get that interested in the Grade 1 affair so out with the Pick 3 and we'll just focus on a very nice Allowance Race on Turf and a Grade 3 sprint on the plastic. Let's get it on!




Twelve horses should enter the gate in a $58,000 allowance, 1 mile on what should be firm turf. I placed Blue's Street on top, but the chalk isn't that heavy. A Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, recently shifted by Anstu Stables to Eddie Kennelly's barn from the trainer Pletcher. A real dog last time out, Kenneally is a 24% winner with first timers and Blues Street is a talented 7 YO gelded son of Street Cry (Ire): 12 of 12 in the money at the distance, 17 of 27 in the money on Turf, 5 of last 9 in the money. Leparoux is up. I do not believe he will be the bettor's chalk, that honor most likley will go to Yankee Fourtune, so I am looking for an a good price as well.

There is lots to like about Yankee Fourtune and the only thing i don't care for is the long layoff, but McLaughlin hits 32% off this sort of extended rest. MClaughlin places Alan Garcia up, and they combine for 27% winners at KEE over past year in 11 tries. 5 wins in 6 tries on turf, gotta love the will to win, a nice contract to Bim Bam who we'll get too.

Not much separating my next layer, Moryba (Brz) and Bim Bam. Morya (Brz), trained by Bill Mott, is a fairly consistent runner cutting back in distance. 9 of 15 in the money on turf and competitive in his Grade 2 races this year.

Bim Bam has no wins in last 15 starts and zero of 9 in 2011 while getting up for Place 6 times in last 20 and 12 of last 27 Place or Show. Doesn't seem to want to win but more than capable of 4th.

I have Hollinger next but Mikoshi is better overall; Mikoshi is a 5 year old Orientate horse trained by Matz with Go Go Gomez up. Winless in two tries at KEE, 1 win in six starts at distance, but 15 of 20 in the money turf. Last time out at Woodbine he laid an egg. His post and his last effort will have to be reversed but tough spot.

Hollinger has two Show finishes in last 7 races, never won at the distance and only 1 turf win in 5 tries. Trainer Attfield is pretty sharp and would not be surprised if he scratches out of here.

Cherokee Artist has Johnny V up for Trainer Motion. I'm actually going to flip flop him and Hollinger in my base handicap. No wins in 5 tries at the distance, 1 win in 10 tries on turf, winless at KEE and 1 win in last 13.

I'll build a superfecta out of this, matrixed as I won't cover any of the exotic picks in the win spot.

In the Grade 3 Phoenix, I think Aikenite is a deserving chalk and I expect he will be the chalk at post time. 3 of 4 in the money at KEE with 2 wins. Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez win 41% of KEE starts and 29% overall in past year on a whopping 705 starts together.

Sterling Outlook has been claimed twice in past six months and last out gamely dead heated a win at 6 furlongs at Del Mar with a 101 BSF. Trainer Saddler places Gomez up and the two win 235 of the time together. 2 wins on fake dirt in 9 tries. Feast or famine I reckon.

Hamazing Destiny is very reliable and honest. Trainer Lucas is looking for a graded stakes win, with an unthinkable zero for 69 streak in the rolling year. 5 of 10 in the money at the distance.

Flashpoint is training very fast on the fake stuff, banging out :59 and change 5f workouts at KEE. First time racing on plastic so how the Pomeroy son performs, who knows. Could get bet down to the chalk and maybe the bettors are right but I'm not there yet. He's very good though so we'll cover the top spot with him. Trainer Ward very respected here at The Turk and Little Turk.

Only other horse I'm covering is a bit of value, Hoofit (Nz) . I'm not sure what to expect but he ran well at PID in September.

The Turk has never been very successful at Keeneland, especially the poly races. I'll be playing quite a few early to get a feel for it and we'll see if we can't do a bit better here.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Horse players, in late September horse racing lost a super fan, in fact the HRN Fan of the Year, "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds. Please consider a completely tax deductible donation to help for the education fund of Tim's daughter, Lauren.

There are so many people and organizations that need our help, I know that, but if possible, please help the family of one of our own, a horse racing fan who oozed passion for this sport and who is dearly missed by his friends and family.

Thank You friends. Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Classic Betting Options and Handicappers Homework

Yes, I'm going to talk betting menus and Breeders' Cup Classic statistics but before I go to far, today is the grand unveiling of Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers, a group that I am an invited member of. This collection of twenty bloggers, while all individual voices, isn't just a blog aggregate site. In our introductory press release, one of our six founding members, Valerie Grash defined our goal as "...to gather the best the blogosphere had to offer in regards to the coverage of horse racing...where readers can easily find select and thought provoking writing by individuals invested in sharing their love for the sport." Well said Valerie and thank you for inviting me.

My blog, The Turk and the Little Turk, has been a labor of love for three years now. If you don't know me, let me introduce myself and my blog. I am The Turk. Yes I have a name, but don't expect me to use it much here. The Turk moniker was not an uncommon nickname in handicapper circles in the sixties and seventies and I reckon every OTB and backstretch had a "Turk" and a "Greek". Not too long ago I read an obituary of a World War II veteran which he was described as a longtime horse player whose nickname was "The Turk". I feel a kinship with the older generations and I hope I carry on this man's legacy well.

I picked my nickname up in 1986 when a bunch of sailor buddies of mine got sick of hearing me talk about Turkoman, especially after Precisionist smoked him. It was a friendly taunt that I wore as a badge of honor. The Little Turk is my eleven year old son, a Korean-American with an uncanny knack for picking winners out of the horses I inaccurately toss out.

I've been in the game a long time but don't expect breaking news, trainer quotes, insider information or controversial opinions on matters I know little of: I'm a handicapper. I take a red gel pen to Daily Racing Form Past Performances and I apply my derivative techniques to construct exotic vertical and horizontal betting structures from my base handicaps. I build my handicaps in advance of the post parade with each of the horses identified by "layer"; where in the field a particular runner will finish, be it W-P-S, the Exotic 4th, or my toss outs, the Also-Ran's.

I will identify what sort of bet structure I intend to build and often, not always, I'll post the exact bet. I believe in watching the tote board and being prepared to alter your bet structure within the confines of the base handicap, albeit slightly, if opportunity presents itself. After the race I'll break down the race chart and we'll try to learn something in hindsight about why we won or lost.

I have my quirks; I don't read much in advance of the racing, preferring to only study the past performance information, race charts and YOU TUBE race videos to avoid outside bias. I also ignore morning line odds. A good example of why this can be very helpful was this past weekend at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon. Turning Top (Ire), a 5 year old that was 13 of 21 in the money on Turf, a 402 Tomlinson, 3 of 5 in the money on Santa Anita turf but a woeful one of six in the money in 2011, but all Grade 2 with one Grade 1 effort. It was her third effort off of a clearly needed break. In my mind this horse was top six in a nine horse field and she was in my superfecta mix. The bettors didn't see it that way and she was pushed down to the lowest odds on the board. When she hit the wire in fourth she provided the only value in a chalky Superfecta. Her morning line odds? 20-1. She fell to 46-1 before the race began. It's these contrarian thoughts where I find value choices. Bias can influence you in all sort of ways and you'll hear me tell you to block out the bias (including Internet hacks like me) at least until you make your selections.

The Internet is a big place; If we are going to make horse racing relevant again culturally it will be at the grass roots level. The Turk is neither a journalist nor an irreverent or irresponsible writer: I hope you come and visit my blog, share your thoughts, take something away like I have taken away from the handicappers I respect the most. There are lots of places to find interesting voices in racing , be it new media, old media, or a melting pot of both journalists and others crashing the party. The Turk is also a proud member of The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Raceday 360 as well as a sometimes contributor to various sites such as Hello Race Fans! and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner.

Now that I rambled my gums at you...

The Breeders' Cup is a unique event in American horse racing, especially since getting the Stretch Armstrong treatment and turning into a two day festival. Churchill Downs will be packed with the true believers, horse racing fans who know their stuff. The mostly Grade I level racing will feature cards that read like the who's who of the particular division, multiple graded stakes winners and racing millionaires who suddenly find themselves overlays. I find the best way to handle the excitement of being at the track on big days like this is to be prepared; All races I intend to bet will be base handicapped and I'll have some idea of how I intend to build my bets, along with a budget that I won't exceed. It's a bit too early to start handicapping, but I will do my homework over the next week and put in the preparation for how these races have been unfolding and what sort of odds I should expect.

When I walk into Churchill Downs I'll be prepared with pre-made scratch pads to take the tote board information and layer it over my handicaps, helping me make the final decisions that will define which particular exotic option is best.

The tentative betting menu was released. There are Pick Five's with fifty-cent minimums, ten cent Superfecta's and a Pick Six that will carry over to Saturday if its not hit on Friday. There will be rolling Pick Threes, one Pick Four on Friday that ends with the Distaff or the Ladies Classic and two Pick Fours on Saturday. There is also a Distaff-Classic Double and $1 Super High Five's for both the Distaff and the Classic, with the Distaff High Five payout carrying over to the Classic which will have a mandatory payout.

That's alot to digest but digest it friends and start thinking about what your primary targets will be. I've got a soft spot for the Super High Fives.

I've spent sometime on the front end of my homework looking at some historical information.



What to glean? Only three chalks in past eleven years have won; Chalks have been in the Super High Five nine of eleven years; The bettors second favorites have only hit the board 4 times, only once as high a Show; The average winners odds: $10.12-1.

It's going to be a fun month of preparation. I hope you join me each post.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 1 October 2011; Goodwood Stakes Day at Santa Anita

Zazu, with Rosario up, closed like a freight train in silks familiar with winning the Lady's Secret. Thanks to kimpossible's Flickr feed for the use of this picture. Zazu is such a wonderful filly who flies under the radar in relation to the crop of fillies and mares in training now. I'm not the kind of blogger that often asks these questions, but is the F&M collection racing in the past 3 years one of the best groups ever? I'm going with yes.

I hope everyone enjoyed Super Saturday. As I lamented on Facebook, I skipped betting Belmont yesterday and simply enjoyed the races as a fan. Small fields, a rail bias that was indisputable, and seriously heavy duty rain proof chalk; it just doesn't amount to a race track investment of our hard earned capital.

I loved seeing Uncle Mo romp and Harve de Grace look smashing, and a bit south of Elmont, I was really excited by Plum Pretty, but for gambling opportunity, I looked to the Great Race Place, ultimately to mixed results, if $2.01 for every dollar bet can be considered failure.

I like to dwell on what I left on the table, and a $8,733 Superfecta was attainable and a $1,122 trifecta was mine if I would have just placed the bet. Spilled milk, but it's what I preach about here; studying the results, understanding why you won and lost. It really does help improve your betting habits more than anything else.

Let's get after it!





Santa Anita wasn't immune to the nationwide chalk celebration yesterday. While I won the P3, the return wasn't spectacular, but I did do it on a $16 dollar bet.

What did I do right yesterday: The Lady's Secret was pretty straight forward. I said pre race I didn't expect Blind Luck to win. I thought she'd be fourth and if I would have been braver i would have put her 5th. She needed a break, she's smaller than Harve de Grace, and maybe, just maybe her second race off the break is better, but who knows. Ultra Blend is ultra dependable to hit the board, now 13 straight.

In the Goodwood I had Game On Dude to win along with the betting public. I had Miss Match (Arg) in the top four while the bettors had her sixth. Yawn, Super win $12.80 for a ten center.

In the eighth, a $48,000 N1X, where a semi professional gambler should have an advantage over the less educated money that watches only the graded stakes, I had Mega Heat in my top four, had Irish Art for Place, had Romeo Royale in the top four. This alone would have paid a good trifecta payout, but I was either lazy or unfocused and didn't bet it. Most weekends if I was more aggressive I would have gotten the Super. I wasn't high on Utopian and the horses didn't help as I had Renegade Storm and Oak Kye Why covered. I pride myself on preparation and not betting when I'm not prepared. I should have passed yesterday. Well, I'm not a computer, I know that, so I'll mourn the money left on the table and refocus, which I did for the Yellow Ribbon.

In the Yellow Ribbon, a turf affair that is right in my wheelhouse, I felt the handicap was straight forward. I believed Turning Top (Ire)was much better than the ninth she was on the tote board. I had the top five played pretty good. I missed on Malibu Pier, and Cambina (Ire) didn't come until too late. Not perfect, but a good way to end the day.

Not too many more multiple graded stakes days left on the 2011 calendar, sans Breeder's Cup weekend. Enjoy them while you can.

I'm working on analysis of the Breeder's Cup Classic over the past 10 years as well as some early thoughts on the betting strategy I'll employ in November. Good stuff friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 1 October 2010: The Lady's Secret/Goodwood Stakes Pick 3 and the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita

The worst case scenario; With five weeks to go until the Breeders' Cup, this weekend's fantastic slate of Graded Stakes was for me the start of my Breeders' Cup handicapping. With the rains impacting Belmont's surfaces, but really, smallish fields in the Kelso and Beldame, I'm going to just be a horse racing fan today for Super Saturday and instead be a bettor at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita. Sure I can still gleen something from Belmont today, but it won't apply the first weekend in November, the weather is going to be beautiful and the track fast and turf firm (dear God, please give me this :-) )

It's not every weekend you get the lineup of stars we have today: Stay Thirsty, Jersey Town, Jackson Bend, Uncle Mo,Royal Delta, Life at Ten, Havre de Grace, Euroears, Blind Luck, Zazu, Coil, Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Cambina(pictured above), Malibu Pier and Harmonious to name my favorites today.

Some would argue (including this idiot Internet hack at times) that the sport doesn't have stars. I'd argue we have plenty of stars, it's the trainers(who in my equally dubious and most likely ill informed opinion) don't do enough to market the sport by not running them more frequently. Before I go off ranting about the state of horse racing and the black hole of a discussion on how to fix it, let me just stop and say that there is alot of good in horse racing, evidenced last night at Charles Town, where race one was named after a good friend, and one of the sports great grass roots ambassadors, Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds. I put a You Tube video up of Tim handicapping the Derby just to give you a flavor for the wit and intellect, as well as the race educated passion. Tim will be missed and his loss sits like a great void, as he often was the catalyst that got many a great race conversation going. As us humans are known to do, after we lose someone we pick ourselves up and we keep going, one foot in front of the other, never forgetting our dead, but life must be lived.

Speaking of the Tim Memorial race, The Little Turk does it again, hoping on one of my toss outs, J.J. Devil to win the race at $42.60. The Little Turk is about to test for his black belt and yes I am afraid; He's got ice in his veins as a 'capper and feet of steel. Pretty soon this will be the Little Turk and the Turk blog.

If you're still reading and haven't bailed out of my blathering yet, let's get after today's work!



In typical fashion on the West Coast, and most likely in search of the almighty simulcast bucks, the races don't unfold on the card like they would on the East Coast. You can whine about it or just embrace it, and I'm long past whining about it. I didn't see a Pick 4 option and I don't waste time on Pick 6, so I assembled a Pick 3 out of The Lady's Secret, The Goodwood, and a nice N1X on the turf, and then I'll take a a few races off to eat the lamb shanks I'm preparing for dinner and come back for the 10 furlong Grade I Yellow Ribbon. This is a good day's worth of horse racing but if I could digress just a bit, it seems to me horse racing misses an opportunity by not having a Super Saturday and a Super Sunday 5 weeks before Breeders' Cup and I don't see why Belmont couldn't have put even a better card together today and then had Santa Anita bring it home tomorrow with stacked lineup of Grade 1 action. Anyway....

In full disclosure, I handicapped late into the night last night and with the week I've had, I'm not sure I'm at the top of my game. I've learned as a handicapper, but really as a bettor, that what works for me is repetition and discipline to my techniques and methods. While I may feel a bit "emotional" still about the loss of Tim, or feel a bit stressed by my job which is very demanding, I've done my handicapping and followed my usual approach so I will push aside any anxiety I may have and follow through on the betting. How many of you had your best days when you thought you were going to suck? Do your business, bet consistently and over the course of time the results will become consistent.

The Lady's Secret is delectable field of seven and I think five of them legitimately could hit the board. When I'm faced with parity I'll often step back and ask myself what I think the trainers ultimate goal is with his mount:Is he there to win this race or is he looking to sharpen the knife for the next effort. Of course you can do both, but when you're stumped never forget to ask yourself as you review each horse on the PP's "Why is he/she here?"

Why is Blind Luck here? Is it to win the The Lady's Secret or is it to be sharp next month; unraced since she nosed out Harve de Grace in mid July, working strongly, but Hollendorfer is 10% off the 60-180 day break, clearly his mindset in general is to sharpen for the real prize. Now usually I'll ramble like this and Blind Luck will go out and win by 7 lengths, and that could happen, but I think today she'll hit the board and really be tuning up more than anything. Another oddity, Hollendorfer and Go Go have yet to win at SA after 10 races in past year.

I love Blind Luck and its like a holiday to me anytime my favorites are running.

I'm backing Ask the Moon tentatively. I'm a layer handicapper and I'm not that hung up on the exact finish, but I am a value bettor and I'm thinking Ask the Moon would provide good value to the P3 and the Superfecta I'll assemble if she finishes on top. She comes in off a 10 furlong effort at SAR at the end of the meet, coming off a very impressive Ruffian Grade 1 win at the beginning of the Saratoga festivities. The six year old has really responded to Trainer Wolfson since coming to his barn and for a horse that was claimed for $75K not five months ago, what a return she's made for her new connections that believed in her. Maybe she steps back after those exerting efforts, again "Why is she here and where is she in her form cycle?" We'll find out.

Zazu seems primed for the second half of the race year: 3 of 3 in the money at SA, 3 of 4 in the money at the distance, 3 of 4 on fast dirt and 6 of 6 in the money in 2011. She's working bullets at 6f in 1:11 2/5ths.

Ultra Blend? Nothing fancy, just reliable. She is an incredible 12 of 12 in the money from 2010 through 2011. No reason to believe she won't fire into the top four today.

The Goodwood Stakes is always a race the Turk looks forward to, except when it was run on the fake dirt and i just didn't care much about it, but its back on dirt and I'm thrilled. I expected to see more wins for trainer Baffert in the Goodwood but unless I miscounted he has two, including last years at Hollywood with Richard's Kid. He had a little horse called Silver Charm that did pretty good in this race too! I like his chances to make it three wins with both Coil and Game On Dude in the gate.

The Haskell winner Coil was abysmal in the Travers. I just have to let that go and I'm expecting a bounce back but as a three year old I'll defer to his older stable mate, Game On Dude: The Big Cap winner is 5 of 6 in the money in 2011, his only out the money finish being his last effort, the Pacific Classic at Del Mar where he stalked and couldn't finish. That was a deeper and more classy group than is running here and I think he looks pretty good in this spot.

With Acclimation defecting off the dirt, a wise choice in my opinion, I like the combo of Miss Match, the fields lone lady, and the veteran Awesome Gem to press for the top four. Miss Match won at the distance on this surface, or at least what was this surface before it was tinkered with again, back in March, a big upset of Switch. The Little Turk is on Awesome Gem today, so be warned. I'm curious about Mandella's Preamble. the distance may be an issue but 3 wins in 3 starts on dirt and 3 of 4 at Santa Anita who has Espinoza up. Mandella/Espinoza combine for 26% winners at SA on 27 starts over past year.

I'll keep the P3 reasonably covered without going overboard. After handicapping it appears that these are more fan races than betting opportunities, but that said, we've set the table, we will serve dinner!

The allowance race, an N1X, is a bettors black hole often. I'm a big fan of Allowance racing though, its like the gateway between graded stakes, my typical domain, and the lower depths. You have a greater mix of classes, rising and falling, and you really have to ask the question "why are they here" when you handicap these races. The "Super Trainers" and the "Super Jocks" padded those gaudy stats against lesser foes in these events, but if you can hop off of "bad money magnets" and find value, these races can offer just beautiful payouts. I like Carla Gaines Irish Art and Make Me Believe. I have no idea how the bettors will respond to these runners so I've built my base handicap but my betting will be influenced by the tote board.

The Yellow Ribbon is like hair of the dog, in case you haven't had enough, dive in again. Cambina (Ire) seems primed by Trainer Jeff Bonde. a very strong late run by the 3 YO in the 9 furlong Del Mar Oaks, up against older ladies here, she's trained sharply and I like the 10 panel win two efforts back in the American Oaks at HOL.

Speaking of Carla Gaines runners, Malibu Pier is a Turk favorite. a two time Grade 2 winner, 2 wins at 10 furlongs, 7 of 9 in the money on turf and a stalker that will at least be in the action the last few hops to the wire.

Cozi Rosie comes in for trainer Sadler who is 22% of 30-60 day breaks. Distance may be a concern here, winless in two tries, (but two Places) for the the four year old daughter of Pleasantly Perfect (now that was a horse!) 7 of 8 in the money on turf.

This is a fun race! You got Harmonious, Turning Top (Ire) , City to City and Dubawi Heights (GB) all ready to pounce if any ofthe above falter. Really good stuff here.

Have fun friends. Turk Out!