The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap G3 at Churchill Downs

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.  I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.  I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field.  Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong.  I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn.  The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it.  Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.

Turf racing is over for the year.  Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done.  When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.  

It's not a terrible field.  This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.  

Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race.  Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5)  1 and  1/8 Mile wins combined.  

Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing.  Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.

The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday.  Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card.  Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.  

Let's Get After This:

Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD

Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.  

I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late

Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance

8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

So, What to do with all that?  If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down.  It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).  

I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6:  Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta.  Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome.  Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.

I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot.  Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.  

I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.  

Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden.  Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame.  $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3.  Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries.  Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.  

Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner  at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025.  1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby.  Big early speed.  Quality horse, no doubt.  More questions for me than answers.  

Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad, (24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start.  First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin.  More questions than answers as well.  

Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5  races before going backward a bit.  Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland  in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs  from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1  and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD.  Not sure what to make of him.

If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet.  Too pricy and lousy risk/reward.  This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24.  That's my base bet.

If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 149th Kentucky Derby G1

Rocket Can: Coady Photography

 Welcome Back Friends to the Turk Blog.  In my last post for Race 11, the Turf Classic, I prattled on about my love of the older horses running over grass, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 3 YO Kentucky Derby runners.  Well, that's still true, but the gambler in me loves big handle and chaos, and with all the scratches including morning line and $2.0 MM winner, champion Forte, we have chaos.  One thing I love about the Kentucky Derby is that one day a year it's like yesteryear, and everyone is a race fan and everyone has an opinion.  My father, rest in peace, bet the grey horses because his sister, my dear Aunt Rose, loved the grey horses.  It doesn't need to be anymore complicated than that.  The good looking fella to the left is Rocket Can, but Hit Show, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate and King Russell are all Gr/Ro, so plenty to pick from. 

From a handicapping perspective, I'm watching the undercard and speed seems to be carrying, but I'm favoring late speed to round out my potential exacta contenders.  Let's get after it!

I won't elaborate too much on the why's to my ranking.  I looked at recency/current form, class and effort, plus I do favor late pace figs over early.  I could post 10 videos but really, have fun with this and look for value.

If I just boxed my top ten, a $1 bet is $90.  Depending by the finish, the risk/reward can be justified with the field size and handle expected.  

I will not box however, I will whittle down my potential winners and come up with something a bit more risky but even more reward-y.  

Have fun friends. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Turf Classic G1 at Churchill Downs

 

Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting.  When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them.  I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be  beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs.  I don't.  As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs.  I like history, video, consistency.  I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors.  It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition.  While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1.  Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!

The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On.  Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed.  Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it? 

I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots.  6 YO versus 4 YO.  But will be rolling late.  Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff.  3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.  

Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time.  First time CD.  2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start.  Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago.  Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream.  I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here.  I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.  

Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the  Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine.  5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing.  Bad start in last start.  No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022.  2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million.  Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park.  It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois.  Moving on...

Seabiscuit H. G2:  1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar

Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.  

Muniz Memorial G2:  1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.

29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.  

I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot.  Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those.  Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril. 

I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him.  Something like  5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap G1 at Churchill Downs

Departing (Photo by Reed Palmer Photography)

The Clark Handicap is a post Thanksgiving tradition for me like many racing fans.  It's a Grade 1, usually including some of the handicap divisions greats, vying for a last big win, possibly in an attempt to leaving a lasting impression with Eclipse Award voters.  This years, edition, not so much.  It might even be subtitled " Former Derby Darlings trying to get back to their winning ways"  as Hopportunity and Constitution were two of the biggest names in racing in February, but oh what a difference 9 months can make.  It may not be the handicap division all star game that I'd prefer, but in the horse racing game these days, you get what you get.

The track should be fast, even if the temperature a bit brisk.

Lets get after this!



I'm looking for the breakout performance that never seemed to happen this year for Departing.  Lost by a neck last time out to Pick of the Litter at KEE.  It was right there for him and he lost.



Distance isn't an issue for Departing; 3 of 3 in the money at CD, 4 of 5 in the money in 2014, 7 of 9 in the money at the distance, and a bullet 11/13 at 4f in :48 flat.

The next two are a coin toss for me, they could both win, they could both finish out of the money, I have no real notion how they will respond. Of the two, I like Hopportunity a bit better. 2nd race off the long layoff, something Baffert hits on 27% of the time.  Loved his Rebel, will see what he's got.  It means nothing today, but let's watch and remember this year's trail runners.



While we are on the nostalgia trail (which means NOTHING in racing for current form), let's look at the dream trip Constitution had in the Florida Derby.



The 3 YO Tapit would have been retired in the past, and the racing game needs more stars to come back and run, so it would be a boon to the sport to see runners like Constitution and Hopportunity find their second acts.

Today, I'm just thinking of their Class.  In a Class review, these two are near the top of the pack.  Current Form, I'm not sure.  As I said, either could win, both could finish far up the track.  I'm going to cover both and see what happens.

The next four runners I have slotted will make or break my betting I reckon, and the rest of the field I've tossed.

Easter Gift, a five year old Hard Spun (is that possible?  Time goes by too quickly!) is 0 of 2 at CD, 1 of 5 at the distance, a bit slow.

Pick of the Litter is capable of Show to Fourth, I don't think the win.  4 wins in 7 runs at the distance, 4 of 5 in the money at CD but only one win in 5 CD dirt starts.  Comes in off G2 Fayette that's posted above.

Knights Nation, 4 YO gelding, has 13 of his 18 starts on Turf and owns 1 dirt win.  Slow, but will be coming late.

Prontonico, 3 YO Giant's Causeway, I don't know what to make of.  First trip to CD. Won G3 Discovery last time out in slop.  I'm not sure I put much on that. 3 of 6 on fast dirt.  Classier than rest.



So what am I going to do with this?  The Trifecta I assembled I'm not thrilled with thinking about what the tote board odds may look like:

$2 Tri:  4-1-7 OVER 4-1-7 OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6= $56

I'll have to watch the tote board but chances are My Win and Place horse will be 1-2 on the tote board.  A $56 investment would most likely provide a negative return.

I may want to play with some combinations like this:

$2 Tri:   4 OVER 9 (value) OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6 =$10  another alternative may be 4 OVER 9 OVER 6 for $2 and not loose any sleep over it.

In this bet I single Departing (eh), single a Place horse (perhaps one of the late hard runners) and then drop in 5 into Show spot.

Again, I'll be watching the tote board to get a feel for what other bettors think before I decide on the investment.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap Grade 3 at Churchill Downs

Silver Max: Photo by Reed Palmer

Nothing like a handicappers holiday to refresh my handicappers mind.

The Turk hasn't felt very Turk-like over the past several months, as the demands of work have consumed any free time I may have previously had. I've added some efficiency to my job performance and realized that a little R&R, especially on my traditional handicapping and blogging day of Saturday could be possible.

But what to say?  I found the time, do I have anything left to add to my handicapping? Of course!  Ye' Ol Turk is always improving on his analytic skills and coming back off a layoff has done nothing but reinvigorate my mathematical mind.  Math?  It's horse racing Turk, what's up with Math?  It's all math friends, handicapping to me is the numbers on the paper, the incremental times, the workouts, the breakdown of the runners over a long and short period of time.  It's a crossword with 1,200 lb animals running about.  Betting?  Well that's just economics. I view betting as strictly an investment, an opportunity cost.  I measure success solely in terms of return on investment, and while I'm OK with breaking even over periods of time, I'm also realistic to know that I have to hit on a certain percentage of my exotics or my ROI won't stay positive for long.

I've been blogging for six years and my one consistent message has been to preach consistency:  do the same things, day in, day out, do what you do well more often than not.

For me it's about assembling a base handicap, tossing who I can, establishing potential winners and then developing an investment.  I like to blog exotics, but quite frankly Win and Exacta are my bread and Butter.  Not sexy, but I churn out positive ROI with consistency, allowing me to swing at the fences now and then.  If you can't consistently pick winners or exactas you have no business making an investment on a Tri or Super anyhow.




So what to make of today's River City Handicap? Well, the track should be Firm.  The weather is expected to be dry and cool.  I like these grade 3 turf routes.  The horses are the superstars of the industry, they are just honest animals grinding out a living on the edge of the big time.  A horse like Silver Max is the type of horse I adore: modest background, consistent, long career, successful.  18 of 26 in the money, 2 wins in 3 starts at CD, 10 wins in 20 turf starts.  He takes on the big guys in G1 matches and he holds his own.

Villandry is a bit of a stretch for me, but he's cutting back in distance, and I like his running lines of "gaining, gaining, rallied, all out, willingly" in his last five.  I'm thinking he could upset here but his lifetime stats don't give great hope: 3 wins in 11 turf starts, $191,000 career earnings, 10% of Silver Max's.

Gentleman's' Kitten looks dangerous and has been training over the CD turf course since mid October. Trainer Maker is 24% of the break and 25% over the grass.  Hernandez up and has won 30%of his races in 2014.  Freshened this summer after a few clunkers, last two encouraging.

Canadian Aldous Snow is first back off a break since mid September, something Trainer Pierce wins 24% of the time. A grade 3 winner at 1 1/12 miles over grass, he's been no threat in subsequent step ups in class to Grade 2 and 1.

Set the Sail I have too low in my base handicap.  I bullet this week at 4f shows quickness and fitness.  he's 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf and 5 of 8 in the exacta at CD on the turf.  He was Place in this event a year ago.  Lots to like, I'll be shading him up as high as Place.

Guys Reward is the definition of journeyman at age 7, with 40 turf starts, 21 of 40 in the money and 1 in 5 turf races a winner.  I expect competitive and I expect him to be coming late.  Show or Place not out of question but I'm gambling its no higher than Show or Exotic fourth.

I'm predicting Motion's Under Control (Brz) could be the one that screws up my bet.  A nice horse that I'd like to see more of before I back him.

I'm not sure of the bet yet but I'm thinking some sort of Super with 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-4-5-7-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $248.  That's too rich and I need to trim, so possibly I'll go 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-5-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $172.  I'll think about that a bit more.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade 1 at Churchill Downs

It doesn't get much more American than Stephen Foster:  Born on July 4, 1826, the composer of such American music classics as Camptown Races, Oh Susana!, My Old Kentucky Home are still songs that generations of kids sang in music class and learned to play on instruments.  Another great American institution, The Thorofan, invested in the growth of the American horse racing fan base, has again asked this bald idiot handicapper to opine on the races.  It's not a Pink, Blue, or Yellow sheet but its probably just as accurate.  Ignore as you will!

My success rate, measured as Return on Investment, is not very good with my Handicapper Corner's handicaps.  It doesn't help that I'm typically making Superfecta and Super High Five bet recommendations, but still, the handicapping has been dull and not very good.  In self analysis mode I think for some handicaps I was too conservative, afraid to look dumb.  In others I was wildly aggressive, on the edge of reckless.  I've learned that to be a  successful bettor I need to  approach my handicapping with consistency: I build my base handicap, regardless of value, and if I choose to take some risk on the bet structure for value at least I am doing it with eyes wide open.  

The first thing I noticed when I reviewed the Past Performances is how many of the runners you could make a legitimate win bet on: Revolutionary, Moonshine Mullin, Will Take Charge, Departing, Golden Ticket and Prayer for Relief could all hit the wire first.  With the way Long River, a 15-1 Morning Line sleeper, is training, that's seven of nine that could be in the winners circle. 

The weather should be good. The track should be listed as Fast.

Let's get after this!



I have Departing in the top spot.  It's the four year old geldings  2nd off a 180 day layoff, he's 3 of 5 at the distance, 1 of 1 at CD and 7 wins in 10 starts on fast dirt.  Trainer Stall and Albarado, up, clip along at 31% win  rate.  He's been training very sharply at CD.  I doubt I single him but I like his chances to provide value from my chalk spot.  Look for him to come off the pace.

I have late running Revolutionary in the next group back;  He came late for Show in last year's Kentucky Derby and he comes in off a Pimlico Special Grade 3 win.

Prayer for Relief has no top three finishes in three starts at CD.  Another off the pace style runner, the 6 YO sizzled in morning work across this track a week ago.  4 wins in 13 starts at the distance, 6 wins in 20 starts over fast dirt, he ran terribly in  2013 Clarke Handicap here.

The Alysheba, Grade 2, run at CD in May was an interesting race.




Moonshine Mullin should provide much of today's pace.   Will Take Charge will try and forget his non fire in the Alysheba.  Stevens is up again for Trainer Lukas and most likely is the one to beat and the expected post time chalk.  I'm a biog fan of Will Take Charge but I need to see him fire in his four year old season and I'll bet against the money on him.

Golden Ticket and Long River are collectively no wins in six starts at this distance.  Long River has been working very sharply at Saratoga and ran very well on the inner dirt at Aqueduct this past winter.

So what to do with this?  I think I'll take a position similar to my base handicap, with a horse like Departing on top and a series of Exacta Bets with value underneath like Golden Ticket and Long River.  To be decisive I'll go with 6 OVER 3-7-8. Three $10 Bets may interest me.

Whatever you do, have some fun and develop your own handicap and bet responsively.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 November 2011: The Clark Handicap Grade 1

The reason I perform post race analysis is to learn what I did right and wrong. A successful bet is a three part process: I handicap the race and create a base handicap. My Base Handicap orders the horses, similar to a morning line, except I assign letter grades, and any horse B- or above is considered for Superfecta. I watch the live tote board right up to the moment I must place the bet. My base handicap is built devoid of considerations of value, underlays or overlays, and I will "reorder" slightly depending on relative values when it makes sense. My Bet Construction consists of several patterns I generally follow, i.e. "box the top five", "single the top horse and box the bottom 4", " Box the top four and include more horses in the 4th spot". I like to build consistent bets and I like to bet consistent amounts. Adding consistency takes away unnecessary thoughts in the minutes leading to post. Those three items are all key to my methods and drive my success and my failures.

I left $5,900 on the table yesterday when I screwed up my bet construction after nailing the base handicap cold. Cold. I had three horses, all listed as "A". Frequently my base handicaps are misunderstood as being an exact order of finish. I'm more jaded and cynical than that! I had three runners (Mission Impazzible, Flat Out and Wise Dan) in Blue and all Three were listed as A. In my base handicap, any one of them could finish in first. That doesn't happen often but as I said, I was torn yesterday and whomever was my chalk, it was a tepid 7-2 at best. But consider this: If there was a Super High Five, I had the top five out of 13 identified and ready to be boxed. All I needed to do yesterday was box my top five and I had the Superfecta. Why didn't I?

I could make excuses and rationalize but the bottom line is I didn't trust in my base handicap enough. I said it in my writeup. I broke one of my key rules, build the handicap and trust the handicap, and bet the handicap. The top 5 boxed for $2 is $240 bet. If you play ten of these and lose all ten you'd be out $2,400, but it only takes one like yesterday to post a 50% ROI. By keeping post race analysis I know I'm clipping away at nearly 4 out of ten Superfectas in the past 6 months. I broke my consistent betting rule and I left a nice score on the table (it also helps to know I am much better from August to November than I am January through July. Why? Better information on the PP's).

Let's analyze and take some positives out of this self imposed self mutilation moment.



The key yesterday was I expected the Breeders' Cup runners to regress. You sharpen the point of the spear to be ready on the day of the $6.0 million dollar race, not the $500,000 race. Those horses were primed for maximum effort on November 5th. They are ready for the farm. On class alone they ran better than most of the field but this is a common angle you can use every November from now until forever, these Breeders' Cup bounce horses will attract money and these horses will fail to fire.

I liked that I backed Mission Impazzible. I questioned pre race where the pace would come from except Will's Wildcat and not surprisingly Will's Wildcat struck the front and Mission Impazzible set up in stalk. I liked Mister Marti Gras, not something I can say has ever happened before. I liked the Ack Ack, I liked where he was at in 2011 and I liked Trainer Block and the cards he's playing that seem to be aces.

That's the handicap in a nutshell: I discounted Prayers for Relief and Headache, I had Ruler on Ice lower than the tote board ranking and I wasn't sold that Flat Out would be any better than he was three weeks ago and he wasn't, while at the same time expecting Mission Impazzible and Mister Marti Gras to hit the winning tickets.

What I got wrong was not betting my time honored method when I'm unsure; I trust my handicap and box five to get four or I box four to get three. I left money on the table. The realist me knows that will happen. The practical me knows that I have to minimize that by following my methods. The competitive me is pissed off because I love nothing more than to beat the game. The blogger in me doesn't mind so much because it gives me an opportunity to write about failure and how analysis and failure grouped together can really drive your forward in the bad times. The sensitive and emotionally fragile me? Doesn't exist, sorry.

Another time honored method I won't fall into is placing Wise Dan on too high a pedestal. Sure on paper he beat a realy nice 13 horse field convincingly, and he's had a nice campaign on lots of surfaces, but I'll look to beat him next time out. That's what the bettor in me does, ignores the hype. The fan in me was pretty thrilled with the race but not thrilled enough to get to into the Horse of the Year discussions: Too many have a minor share in that prize and I get the feeling it will be a popularity vote that deciedes this Eclipse Award, not that they let this idiot internet hack vote.

I am not a computer, I make mistakes. Consistency over a long period of time is the only real way to measure success and failure. The cathartic nature of blogging is that I can admit my failure and move on. I'll let this one go and regroup to make a stack of bills on the next one.

Have fun friends, Happy Thanksgiving, Turk(ey) Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.

Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's.

At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds, watching our equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in the South of Louisville that he walked so many years ago.

I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.

I'd be remiss if I didn't give my thanks to The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner for the opportunity to write about today's race. I am thankful in these economic times for the means to write these types of articles; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets.

Let's get after this!



When people ask me what I'd like as a horse player, THIS is what I describe: a greater than 10 horse field, with trainers aggressively running their well conditioned animals back to the track on short rest (relative to the times we live in), and just alot of parity in the starting gate.

My base handicap reflects that parity. There are plenty of horses to spread money around and the tote board favorite most likely will be Flat Out: the five year old son of Flatter was the Breeders' Cup Classic chalk just three weeks ago. He'll be in my top four from a betting perspective but I'm placing him down a bit in the handicap. There's little to dislike with Flat Out but this is gambling, not play it safe "handi-pandering", so I'm going to place Mission Impazzible on top for what would be his biggest win so far. Trainer Pletcher is 25% in 2nd races off 45-180 layoffs and Mission Impazzible has been training sharply at Churchill since his first run back at KEE as the well beaten chalk. Has ran well here, including a loss by a neck in the Stephen Foster and he also didn't embarrass himself in the Woodward.

I'm a superfecta bettor usually, but this race is a true dichotomy for me: I love it as a race fan, but as a bettor there are much easier marks. That said, it's an interesting race that will require some thought on the bet construction. Where the pace comes from besides a well outclassed Will's Wildcat, I'm not sure. The bet comes after that handicap so let's keep trudging through that. By the way, the track should be fast. It's an important point that you need to always identify before going to far.

Ruler on Ice was up for Show in the Breeders Cup Classic, making a very hard late run. He's been firing since the Belmont Stakes but at some point he's going to want to run back to the farm. On class and guts alone I'll place him in the top four, but his post position and his 9 previous starts this may catch up to him.

Wise Dan was the bettors second choice that pounded Mission Impazzible at KEE last time out. He ran twice on dirt in 2011 at Churchill Downs, two weak efforts, one as the chalk. He's winless on fast dirt, has two slop wins, 4 fake dirt and turf win in his resume. His placement in my handicap is his high water mark and most of my tickets will have him 4th or out of the money.

As is the case sometimes, as I'm writing this I find myself making a case for the horses I have lower in the handicap. The horses I have listed in my exotic pool are all more than capable of Place and Show. Mister Marti Gras won the Ack Ack here Breeders' Cup weekend. He's 6 of 8 in the money in 2011 11 of 18 in the money the past two years, with 1 win at CD, 1 win at the distance and 1 fast dirt win. Trainer Block has super trainer-esque stats, 26% on Dirt and 23% of Graded Stakes, as well as 26% won last start.

Prayers for Relief has been training lights out at Santa Anita, :46 2/5ths at 4f and 1:11 3/5 at 5f; The Iowa, West Virginia and Super Derby winner, falling short and out finished in the Oaklahoma Derby last time out. An exciting horse and someone to look forward to next year, he could finish anywhere on the board. Did I mention parity?

Headache had a great view of the Breeders' Cup Classic, at the back of the pack. The five year old had a great year, winning the Cornhusker and the Hawthorne Gold Cup. 8 Wins in 19 starts on fast dirt, 3 Churchill Downs wins in 8 tries.

General Quarters, the poor man's Musket Man. His 27th career start for the 5 year old trained by Tom McCarthy. Hasn't run well in a big spot in awhile with the exception of a gutty place over fake dirt two back.

Eight runners I've "layered" somewhere into the top four. Five horses I've tossed. I've done this long enough to know there is a good chance I'll be discussing how one of the five I tossed messed up my superfecta, but you can't cover everyone.

So what will I do with with this:



Maybe it's the Turkey Hangover, I just don't have a great read on the Superfecta. I've assembled a $400 dollar ish $2 Super that I won't play, a much cheaper version that is much cheaper but I'm not sure if its any good and and low priced trifecta that may be too chalky to be worth the bet.

You never get hoodwinked by The Turk, if I don't have an opinion, I don't have an opinion. I could play the 10 cent or $1 variety of Superfectas today or I may just scour the tote board and take $10 and assemble 5 fun exacta's with Mr. Marti Gras and Mission Impazzible playing with some underlays.

There you have have, a Turk tossing out a turkey of a handicap on Clark Handicap day. Sometimes the wishbone doesn't break your way.

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nominations Are In: The Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup and the Grade 3 River City Handicap

Handsome Sanagas, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore at KEE last time out. With his late moves, the five year old Graham Motion trainee is like a riverboat gambler, a gambler out on the Sanagas River perhaps. I digress.

I know many horseplayers who tune out after the Breeders' Cup and only wake back up during the Triple Crown preps. There's nothing wrong with that at all and I think it is important to take handicappers holidays from time to time. For me to stay sharp though, I have to handicap, even if at a reduced volume. I don't need to handicap whole cards, just enough races to keep me fresh.

As I scale back my handicapping, I try to stay in touch with tracks that I plan to be aggressive at in the future. Clark Handicap day at Churchill Downs is important to me so I've been playing Churchill regularly, and then Hollywood will hold my interest between Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas when the start of the Santa Anita winter meet and Gulfstream will keep me occupied. It doesn't matter what your interests are, but I do think it's important to have a plan, to have a focus on certain tracks.

I handicapped for years without betting a nickel, just picking horses and looking at the results the next day. Have you ever seen Conan the Barbarian? In the movie, Conan is strapped to this wooden wheel, and he walks around and around and around for years, going from a small boy to big muscular Arnold. The idea is that while repetitive and at times boring, it made him big and strong (that and steroids perhaps). Well, all that handicapping for years, whole cards at a time, was my "Conan pushing the wheel in circles" moment. If you are new to the game, first of all I welcome you, I want you to stay, and I want you to get better. The best way to enjoy the game is to break even or win and in order to do that, have your own Conan moments and handicap all the racing you can, especially during this lull in the racing season.

I care about being at the top of my game from July to November, just like the horses in the handicap division, and to get there I have to pace myself, sharpen my skills, and keep it fun. It's been my experience that if I'm not 100% committed to my handicapping effort I'll lose money

Long story short: For the next two months; I'll keep the betting exposure low and just work on my chops. I urge my readers who may have been turned on by the Breeders' Cup and are new to the sport to keep things simple; identify winners. If you can't consistently pick the winner, regards of the odds, out of the PP's, you shouldn't be betting exotics. Try stringing together exactas. Handicap and pick the top 3 but wager no money. Try tossing 25%of the field and seeing how you do with that, another skill you must master. Keep score and be honest with yourself.

This can be a very rewarding mental diversion, don't put too much pressure on yourself by allowing your betting to exceed your experience and skill level.

Let's get after this!

Hollywood Park Race 8 and Churchill Downs Race 9



We'll work backwards: At 7:07 Eastern the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup goes off at 12 panels and firm turf.

My initial thought is I'd love to see at least 3 more horses to make this a 10 horse field but not my call. With seven horses, if even one scratches I'm much less interested as a bettor. Other early thoughts are the race seems to have some real quality on the front end which means prices will be short and the race less bettable unless I find some real value that will hit the top four.

I like Sanagas (Ger), the most likely post time chalk, to win: While a nice win in the Sycamore, the last two turf efforts were willing and confident. 6 wins in his last nine starts and 4 of 6 in the money on turf. Trainer Motion is winning 24% of his Won Last Start starters and 21% of his graded stakes. He places Maragh up, and the two have won 25% of their efforts together.

Norvsky is a late moving horse as well; The five year old gelding won in late October at 9 panels under Bejarano. The distance question should make or break this choice and should also influence the price in the direction I'd like but the question is real as he's never tried the distance but there is lots to like still; 7 of 8 in the money in 2011, 5 of 5 in the money in 2010, 15 of 16 lifetime in the money, 11 of 12 in the money on Turf and 5 of 5 in the money at Hollywood Park.

Bourbon Bay is a dependable runner with six wins in last 13 starts. Last win was a Grade 3 fake dirt effort at Delmar in late July and seems to have struggled slightly since coming back from Dubai although his Beyers are consistent. he just missed by a head as the chalk in the Del Mar Handicap. Trainer Drysdale is a darn good horseman who wins 19% of his graded stakes efforts. Gomez is up and he and Drysdale have had very little success together in the past year, 1 win in 16 tries. More than capable of striking anywhere in the top three.

I think it gets murky after those three with Miss Match and Falcon Rock seeming the best of the bunch. Miss Match (Arg) is also trained by Neil Drysdale, who places Mike Smith up. My recollection in the stands at Churchill Downs was that Miss Match was almost walking down the stretch the last 1/4 mile in the Distaff, a class test that didn't go so well. A nice last move before that in the Goodwood but her two wins in 2011 both came before April. No turf wins, no attempts at this distance, lots to overcome.

Falcon Rock (Ire) has been on the bench since mid July, a break Trainer Callaghan wins 6% of the time. No wins in 6 starts on Hollywood turf, 2 wins in 19 tries on turf, 1 win in 7 starts at distance, the 6 year old gelding looks the part but only has 2 wins in 22 tries but does have 9 Places. Some horses just don't like to win and while I said 1 of 7 at the distance, 7 of 7 in the money at the distance and 12 of 19 in the money on turf. Gomez jumps off here and Flores is up.

In the River City Handicap, Eddie Kenneally is the trainer of Blues Street now, taking over the super trainer after a poor effort by the 7 year old gelded son of Street Cry in a grade 2 affair at Saratoga where his running line reads "folded". Blues Street is my tentative chalk; This is his 30th lifetime start and he's been in the money 19 times. a nice one mile effort where he just missed at KEE in early October.

If he falters, Tajaaweed will be right there: A bullet work early this week, the 6 year old Dynaformer son looks to erase the poor effort in his stable owners Shadwell Turf Mile. He has run sharply at Churchill Downs this year, just loosing to Turk favorite Turallure in July at 1 1/16 miles on firm grass.

Speaking of that the weather should hold out and the track is currently listed as firm.

This race also could benefit from a few more starters but the quality seems pretty consistent and of the two races, this may be a better bettors affair (say that fast three times!) Below my top two I like Allie's Event who should be good value. Breeder/Owner and Trainer Lori Smock had a bullet work at 5f in 1:01 /5ths at TP this week and has seen her 5 year old run consistent efforts since finishing fourth in last years edition of this race.

Gleam of Hope also put up a bullet 5f in :59 flat at KEE. 6 of 9 in the money on turf for the four year old gelded City Zip son.

Cherokee Lord may be poised for a good effort and comes in off a win at RP in mid October at 1 1/16 over firm turf. Expect a stalking effort and see if he fires.

Have fun with it as that's the goal for me today; I'm coming back for serious play on Churchill Downs for Thursday and Friday and then I'll downshifyt again for a few weeks.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 12 November 2011; The Churchill Downs Late P3

Getting back to work after the Breeders' Cup as a handicapper, the easiest thing for me to do is to continue working a dirt and turf surface that I'm comfortable with. As long as the weather holds up I'll bet this track right through one of my favorite race days, the day after Thanksgiving and the Clark Handicap.

Today's Mrs. Revere G2 looked like a very strong collection of three year old fillies on paper and the race didn't disappoint. For those who pay attention, Marketing Mix has been on an ascent since late July and looks primed to be a real force next year.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Race 8-9-10



The Pick Three was the planned cornerstone of my betting day but it turned out to be a bust after the first leg. Not much to say really, I was just off in Race 8 and 10. In race 8 I had the 12 horse, Afleeting Lady fifth on my board. In race 10 I tossed the four horse, Media Contact; 0 of 4 at CD, 0 of 5 at the distance but 6 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and I either missed that or discounted it.

In the Mrs. Revere my only regret was the betting public was all over this race and there were no contrarian positions to take. The Superfecta was 1-2-3-4 on the tote board. I do this regularly and that doesn't happen very often. I felt comfortable singling Marketing Mix in my Super and I bet a straight Exacta with Marketing Mix/Bizzy Caroline. It was a chalk fest but that didn't stop me from making some good money management decisions and turing a low risk positions of $80 into $520.

There is money to be made on every card at every track on every day of racing, it just won't always be as sexy as the Breeders' Cup.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 12, 2011; The Late Pick Three at Churchill Downs including The Mrs. Revere Grade 2

This picture sums up my 2010-2011 Breeders' Cup experience at Churchill Downs over the past two years; it blew by. It really is hard for me to believe that two of these events have come and gone and I'm loathe to compare the two years because that's not really fair with the solar eclipse of a mare, Zenyatta, creating such a huge buzz in the grandstands last year. On Friday the Turk Clan parked in the prepaid lot right next to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, the owners of Barbaro. I asked Mrs. Jackson if it was difficult for her to come back to Churchill Downs and she answered my awkward question kindly and said it was a place of great memories for her. Thank you Mrs. Jackson for being so forthright with me.

I had a decent two days of gambling, more or less break even. My biggest thrill was Amazombie winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint and my lowest low was being "that guy" loudly telling everyone that Court Vision should have been retired only to watch him win the Mile. I had my money on Turallure and I have a real soft spot for the Woodbine Mile and I should have bet the Woodbine Mile Exacta as that paid a sick about of mooola. Long Live Goldikova, she was a real special treat, and her connections were very sporting with the way she was campaigned, a real lesson to some of our American runners.

I swung for the fences with the Super Hi Five on the Breeders' Cup Classic. If I had won, you'd know about it by now. I had tossed Ruler on Ice but I had the other four. We'll revisit that bet more times in my life. I had Game On Dude to win and really thought I had a sleeper after I jumped off Flat Out. I don't know if there was any more Chantal could have milked out of him, but the way Drosselmeyer flew up the outside, I just don't think she saw him or there was no response. Either way, I enjoyed myself and i enjoyed the weekend for what it was: Multiple Grade 1 winning horses with long odds on very good animals in every race.

The Turk is never going to be confused as being gregarious in my social life. I fake it well in the business world but I'm a pretty reserved fella. I loved walking through the paddock, seeing the excitement, feeling the vibe of people digging horse racing (and vodka). I woke up early on Saturday morning and channeled some positive energy, driving to Mt. Washington before winding my way back to Churchill Downs to watch the horses from the fence line on Longfield Avenue graze and be happy.

The glamour of racing cards with multiple graded stakes one after another is just about over the calendar year. I like to handicap in November and December to sharpen up and look for 3 year olds who were lost in the shuffle and will be staying in training for 2012. I just don't give a hoot about 2 year olds and I never will- I'll get excited about them when the long Derby Trail begins again. I'll be handicapping Churchill until after the Clark and then I'll bounce over to Hollywood park, where I have had some really big December's in the past few years.

I've got a Pick Three at Churchill Downs that I've been noodling over which includes the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. Let's get after it!



I really like Hungry Island's 2011 body of work but the Garden City, while looking like an off the board effort deserves a look;



She came out of traffic in a perfect striking position but it was Winter Memories day. I liked the rally. That said, I'm backing Marketing Mix to win.

Marketing Mix is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of Instant Thought (Kris S.) The Ontario bred will have grass master Leparoux up for trainer Tom Proctor, who's a 20% turf winner. A solid 2011 Woodbine campaign, a win in an always competitive Wonder Where, a nice Pucker Up G3 at Arlington and a Place to Together in the QE2 Cup G1 at Keeneland. Training sharply and running well, a deadly combination.

Bizzy Caroline breaks from the two post for trainer McPeek with M. Cruz up. A dreadful Del Mar Oaks G1 was followed up by a Place in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland. A bullet on the poly track there last week. 5 of 8 in the money lifetime over turf, 2 wins in 2 starts on CD turf, the Afleet Alex daughter looks like a handful.

Smart Sting is a Smart Strike/Perfect Sting joint, trained by Roger Attfield. I was ecstatic to see Mr. Attfield win his first Breeders' Cup race (could that possibly be i thought, but yes it was) with Perfect Shirl in the Filly and Mare Turf. Wow! Johnny V is up. 5 of 6 in the money in 2011 with 2 turf wins, but winless at the distance and winless in one effort at Churchill. Comes off a 8.5 furlong fake dirt G3 win and a decent Virginia Oaks G3 effort two back.

Sea Level Drive is easy to overlook but I'm intrigued. An N1X winner on poly at Arlington, she ends up in Leigh Bently's barn, runs a well beaten Place to Marketing Mix in the Pucker Up G3 at 25.5-1 odds and follow that up as the 1.3-1 chalk in an N2X win at 8.5 furlongs on the fake stuff at KEE. This Malibu Moon should like the turf here and Trainer Arnold has her back but there is some baggage there: Arnold is a 3% winner on Fake Dirt to Turf crossovers and a 7% stakes race winner.

Hungry Island, Louakhova and New Normal round out my exotic covers. Louakhova has never finished off the board in 7 starts and won in her North American debut at 1 mile on yielding turf in October. I may be foolish not covering her in the P3 but you can't cover everyone friends!

The New Normal has been training well at Woodbine for Trainer Frostad. Friends, if you aren't paying attention to the good horsemanship north of the American border, pay more attention, especially to Woodbine. The Canadians love bringing good horses south in the Winter. A G3 winner as a two year old, she's been training well but this is first race off a long layoff, a break Frostad wins 15% of the time off of.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta for the Mrs. Revere and I will most likely follow my alternative bet selection for the P3, perhaps stretching out to one more horse in the Mrs. Revere, Louakhova and downplaying Smart Sting. Hmmmmm. Things to think about minutes before the gate throws open. By doing your handicapping well in advance, I can focus on bet construction, allowing the tote board to help me make some value judgements.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: November 26, 2010; The Churchill Downs Late Pick Three including the 136th edition of the Clark Handicap

Poor Meriweather Lewis Clark. He did so much for our sport yet died by his own hand at age 53. I remember Mr. Clark every year as the race named in his honor shouts THANKSGIVING to me as much as turkey, stuffing, gravy. It's been a wet and cold few days at Churchill Downs, located on property donated and named for Meriweather's mothers family, the Churchill's, mother Abigail and his cousins John and Henry Churchill. The weather and the track conditions may dictate the outcome of the Late pick Three so you have to decide for yourself if the unknowns are worth dealing with. I'm going to keep my risk/reward threshold reasonable and take a swing for the fences. Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Race 10-11-12 Late Pick Three first post 5:12 ET



Yesterday at the Downs the turf races moved to the slop. Check the scratches/changes, weather and track condition before doing much with these races. In Race 10 the obvious issue will be if it goes to the main track and who gets scratched. Film Charm will join the crowd if it goes to the main track and he should be a player. I like the James Tafel/Carl Nafgzer combo with Sweetest Song on turf or slop. The four year old gray has had very definable third race bumps in improvement in her cycle and today's the 3rd race in her current cycle. A win at the distance and a big Tomlinson Wet Track rating. Redreamit, with Gomez up for Trainer McPeek has an even bigger wet track Tomlinson and races for the second time after being freshened. I like the way Persuading is working for Trainer Romans, with a :46 and 2/5ths bullet in early November.

In the Clark Handicap, I'm backing Duke of Mischief tepidly. I really like his efforts at 1 1/8 miles early this year and I think he'll be flying at the end. My exacta combo is two horses I haven't backed often and I'm still not sure I didn't get enough sleep or coffee before typing this. Redding Colliery is six of six in the money in 2010 and has a >100 BSF in 5 of past six races. The 4YO may be making a statement for 2011 today. Completing a trifecta of horses I never though much of, Win Willy is a great slop track runner and has won four of last 11 and 8 of last 11 are in the money. Dubious Miss intrigues me and I had the six year old gelding on top on some of my tickets; A solid CD runner and winner, a solid wet track runner, I'm watching the tote board with this one.

It's a nice field with Regal Ransom and Redding Colliery proving some serious pace. Successful Dan is rolling of late with two straight >100 BSF wins by a combined 10 lengths. Giant Oak doesn't win much but isn't bashful about minor awards. Brass Hat is, well, Brass Hat. Not alot of handicapping required. This feels more like a goodbye dance than a legitimate shot, now go prove me wrong grey beard! Demarcation and Apart ran solid Ack Ack Handicaps and they could finish anywhere here.

Again, especially if the track is a mess, have fun but keep the risk reasonable.

My last week's Late Pick 4 at Aqueduct was so-so. I did hit pretty good with Spa City Fever but not enough to be competitive.



Happy Thanksgiving Friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Churchill Downs Pick 4 including the Grade III Commonwealth Turf

This is the image I've had in my mind for one week now: Zenyatta, passing the crowd, already 15 lengths off the leaders. The next trip past the crowd was one of the most exhilarating stretch runs I've witnessed, maybe ever. It'll be some time until I get that mare out of my head. I had such a wonderful time at Churchill Downs I find myself handicapping the card today with some special motivation: A former USS Louisville shipmate of mine, Tom McFadden, and his family, will be in attendance today and I'm hoping they have a great time. Best of the Breed shipmate! Let's get after it.

Churchill Downs Pick 4 Race 7-8-9-10 First Post 3:36 ET



The Pick 4 sequence is a bit tricky so you'll have to decide what the risk/reward is for you. The first race, a five furlong turf sprint has a handful of horses that should be strong, so I'm going to cover four here and take chances later. Delano, a Mott/Leparoux joint, looks strong in this 2nd off a long layoff. Galientos will attract betting action: A More Than Ready trained by Steve Asmussen with Bridgmohan up, slick on slop, trying turf for the first time. Don't ignore another More Than Ready, Ready to Strike.

Not any easier, Race 8 is a $52,000 N2X on Dirt. I like both the coupled entries, Gold Collection and Film Charm, trained by Bill Mott. I plan on singling with these two and rolling the dice. If you wish to risk a bit more betting capital you have at least three good options with Zermatt, Absinthe Minded, and a minor bid by Tizahit. Zermatt, a son of Tiznow has Desormeaux up for Trainer Pletcher.

Race 9 is the featured Grade III Commonwealth Turf. Trainer McLaughlin has Yankee Fourtune who will attract much attention following his sizzling Hawthorne Derby win in early October that came after a 7+ furlong romp at Saratoga in September. for value, I like Dark Cove quite a bit:back to back 89 BSF on firm turf, Theriot is up for McPeek today and the son of Medaglia d'Oro out of Crystal Cove by Kris S. is intriguing. It should be a pretty darn good race.

Race 10 is a 15K claimer that I'll cover three in and if I'm still alive I'll be pleasantly surprised.

It looks like rain is coming to Louisville, but maybe too late to make much of a difference to the surfaces. Pay attention to scratches and changes and most of all, have fun.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs

The Turk took on an assignment at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner to handicap a winner in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. For better writing and some pretty nifty handicapping, take a swing by the Handicapper's Corner as well as the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page for some of the most insightful takes in racing.

Two year old horses are difficult to handicap using my traditional methodology. The reason is that their past performances are fairly scant, with this field of ten averaging 3.2 starts in their careers so far. Instead of worrying about what we don't have, let's take stock in what we do have and figure out how to use it best: We have past performances with 16 Graded Stakes starts combined to glean from, we have basic pedigree information, we have trainer/jockey statistics, quite a bit of video on nearly every entrant, and most of all, we have our experience and feel to guide us. What we don't want is our heads filled with the hype laden articles that are floating around proclaiming the next Arazi or Secretariat; Remember, when looking at the winners of this race you won't find unforgettable careers, mostly mixed racing success and a few very good stallions. Let's get after it!

Post 1 Biondetti: The son of Bernardini was born in Kentucky runs in Godolphin silks for conditioner Mahmood Al Zarooni. 3 for 3 lifetime record with a win at 1 mile on Turf in Italy on a straight away, at 7 furlongs on fake dirt at Kempton and a 7 furlong straight away fake dirt run. He represents Bernadini's first Grade I winner. He's on Lasix for the first time with A. Ajtebi up, the pilot of last year's winner, Vale of York. Let's give Godolphin credit for going on the dirt, something they don't do easily or willingly.

Grade I Gran Criterium San Siro Italy



Take what you can from this turf race. Biondetti surges to the lead under a vigorous ride but never fully extends and the Place horse stops his drive just as he pulls alongside to pass. I have him somewhere around :11 2/5ths for the final 1/8 mile (very unofficial). With this being his first dirt action, I don't see enough to sway me yet but make no mistake, he's a classy horse bred for two turns and dirt shouldnt be a problem.

Post 2: Boys of Tosconova: Dick Dutrow trained, this son of Officer out of Little Bonnet maybe lacking in a Class match-up, but a win at Saratoga in the Grade I Hopeful, a win at Belmont, and a Place in the Grade II Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs makes him one of the major contenders. Watch Boys of Tosconova, with R. Dominguez up, taunt them as he cruises by.






I really like the sharp and regular work that the horse has gotten at 5 and 6 furlongs since early September. Dutrow's stats are impressive anyway, but 25% of his 2 YO's win, 31% of his 60-180 day layoffs win, 30% of his last winners win. Officer was "distance challenged" but Little Bonnet felt comfortable staying and the results are intriguing.

Post 3: J.B.'s Thunder: A son of mighty Thunder Gulch out of Rebridled Dreams, conditioned by Albert M. Stall Jr. for Columbine Stable. Two starts, two wins, including the Grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity on fake dirt and a turf win at Saratoga. It's his first dirt effort, but he's got the pedigree for that.





He strikes the lead and he doesn't give it up in either of these races. On Breeders' Cup Friday, few closers got very close to the horse at the front by the 1/8 pole. A nice 4 furlong :47 bullet shows he will strike the lead but will he keep it is the question.

Post 4: J.P.'s Gusto: A son Successful Appeal out of Call Her Magic, trained by David Hofmans for Gem Stable. Six starts already with four Wins and one Place with a Place in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Hollywood, a Win at the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, as well as Grade II and III win. Not shabby but Jaycito seemed better in the last two races and that's what I take away from this. First time dirt as well, he too likes the front.





Post 5: Riveting Reason: Watch the two previous videos of the Norfolk and Del Mar Futurity and you'll find this Maiden. Blinkers on today for Korean Conditioner Cho Myung Kwon, this son of Fusaichi Pegasus will be up against it.

Post 6: Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along as is Biondetti, has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are impressive: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes. The horse is uncoupled from stable mate Uncle Mo with Castellano up, no slouch at 20% himself.

Here's the Hopeful again.



Post 7: Uncle Mo: Hard to ignore the hype here. Son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch) ran an incredible Grade I Champagne as the heavy chalk in early October and appears cocked and loaded for a big effort here.



Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28



Post 8: Murjan: Another son of Officer, out of Miss Jean Cat, this Kentucky born Peruvian runner is also an impressive 3 for 3 winning by a combined 27 3/4 lengths in the process. A surprising amount of video is available, and anyone who follows racing and is on Facebook or blogs knows the passion our South American horse racing friends have! He gets 262 race winner R. Bejarano up and lasix for the first time.





Post 9: Rouge Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form. McPeek wins 21% of his Turf/Dirt switches but is only an 8% (with 92 tries) in Graded Stakes.



Post 10: Jaycito: < This new star from Zayat Stables, trained by Mike Mitchell, is sired by Victory Gallop out of Night Edition .A Place in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and a Win in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Oaktree at Hollywood. Again, I think he shows the best when compared with other synthetic runners horses.





So what do we make of all this? It's hard to ignore the strong dirt form of Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova with the tier just below them being Jaycito and Stay Thirsty. I'm going to look to cover at least three of these horses in a multi race Pick 3 and I'll build what I think is the possible Superfecta outcome for this race. As much as I'd like to show you a long price winning, I just don't see it.






The Turk is taking a handicappers holiday at the Breeders' Cup so I'm sorry if I have disappointed any of my hard core degenerate fans. I'm having too much fun seeing so many of my favorite horses and Little Turk and I are handicapping pretty good winners and straight exactas between races to keep us warm! I am really geeked up to see Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Quality Road, Blame, Haynesfield, and Zenyatta. It's going to be a good day! That's Little Turk above with his 46-1 ticket for Shared Account. He took a position and never wavered. Money Baby

Have fun, Turk out!