Leftovers: A Slice of Cold Turk-ey

The business end of the Turkey, where all my best handicaps come from.

The Turk has a real problem: I love the Derby Trail, but I really hate betting these prep races because I'm just not that good at it. Instead of losing hard fought positive ROI on these equine rookies I'm going to blog-recap the best of the previous weekends races and let my trip handicapping eye influence my opinion for awhile.

Speaking of cramping my style, I've been so fixated on my actual gambling I forget to blog much in January. I just can't help myself, no matter how disciplined I think I am on occasion I flip the script on life and let it all go. I was a machine the last two weekends on the 4 YOs and Up and Turf races, and was quite content to ignore the youngsters. The calendar is about to change to February and the first 2012 Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll is about to be released so I better get my act in gear.

If you like great insight and snarky comments, check out the Derby Dozen folks every few weeks from now until the First Saturday in May.

I don't give much of a hoot about 2 YO racing, so the Holy Bull, The Count Fleet and the Sham were my first impressions so far.

Holy Bull



The Count Fleet



The Sham Stakes



I liked what I saw from all three winners but the trail's just starting...

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 1, 2010: The NYRA Pick 4 including the Count Fleet Stakes

Yeah, it looks JUST like this. the glamorous people, wandering up the driveway, to watch the Count Fleet Stakes in mildy inclement weather. Come on down and check it out. Well, not really, but there are construction trailers and signs pointing to a different future and the old barn ain't too bad and when you get hungry, check out Don Peppe around the corner for some great food.

Happy New Year Friends and Readers of the Turk and Little Turk. The holiday season is always special, and New Years Day is once last chance to relax and recharge the batteries before the grind begins anew. I took a gander over at Santa Anita, but a five horse field in The Robert Frankel Grade II and a not so interesting rest of the card turned my eyes back to the NYRA Pick 4 at Aqueduct and a not so exciting claimer and maiden race that are intermixed with the Count Fleet and ChampagneforAshley Stakes. Let's roll with it!

Aqueduct Pick 4 Race 6-7-8-9



The Count Fleet has been contested by horses of good caliber, with Haynesfield and Smarty Jones just two notable alumni. Today's edition has a few potential stakes winners; Pants on Fire with two time winner R. Dominguez up, comes in with a near win on the track and a trainer in Kelly Breen who wins 24% of 2nd races off 45 day layoffs.

Rush Now is a stakes winner with a 38% winner combo at the Big A of Rose up and Anthony Dutrow conditioning. Dutrow's stats are pretty gaudy and I won't rattle them all off but 25% stakes winners on 75 tries is sweet.

J J's Lucky Train and Arthur's Tale, especially Authur's Tale, look strong and if you want more than a chalky taste in your mouth,the son of Bernadini may be a good direction to look.

In Race 8, the ChampagneforAshley Stakes, three horses stand out: Eminent Tale has been off since mid November and training regular at Aqueduct. The modestly bred runner starts for Dick Dutrow Jr. who wins 28% of 2nd off 45 starters and 26% of his dirt races.

Beau de Beaupre comes in winning two in a row, including a stake at Aqueduct.

Sky Music is a Pletcher/Dominguez joint looking for a bounce back after a last race erratic effort as the heavy chalk.

I'm pushing the time for this sequence, so have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 3, 2010; The Hal's Hope at Gulfstream & Post Race Analysis for The Count Fleet & San Gorgonio Hcp.

The fine looking, Allen Jerkens trained horse to the left is none other then two time Grade III winner, Le Grand Cru, the Turk's tepid chalk in the Grade III Hal's Hope on opening day at Gulfstream Park. Yesterday's two handicaps kicked off another year of publicly handicapping the ponies for The Turk. While I would have loved to report a big splash, it was more workmanlike and typical of the type of racetrack scores that don't kill you but don't make you rich either. Let's talk about yesterday and then get to today!

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 mile and 70 yards on fast inner track dirt for 3 YOs and Race 8 at Santa Anita: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on firm turf for F&M 4 YO and Up.



Full disclosure. I fell asleep yesterday afternoon and woke up with a few minutes to post at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. I was less excited about this race anyhow after Peppi Knows scratched. I expected a better effort from Ibboyee and I hated the odds this horse was bet down to. I also liked my base handicap and didn't like the idea of a sub $10 exacta winner so I shook off the cobwebs, looked at the Tote Board and bet my 2nd and 3rd choices, which lined up with what the bettors thought as well. Laus Deo rewarded my rather lazy and uninspired bet, but a win is a win.

At Santa Anita, the scratch of Life Is Sweet eliminated a serious money magnet from the mix. I waited patiently on the tote board to see how the bettors responded and the response was about what I expected: Diamondrella was bet down to near even money with money spread nearly evenly between Cat by the Tale, Treat Gently (GB) and Diamondrella (GB). About the best value on the board was Century Park, who pre race I said would set the pace and get gobbled up at the top of the stretch, which is exactly what happened. Without a strong opinion I relied on my first impression of the race, my base handicap. Using it I constructed a win bet, an exacta and I came close to a Superfecta. I had the superfecta lined up to bet but it was a 5 horse box and I didn't think the reward was worth the bet. In hindsight I miscalculated and I left about 24 bucks at the window that should have been mine but mistakes happen, even in the confines of my quiet den. Mistakes are multiplied at the track itself with all kinds of distractions, so do your homework before you get to the track.

The results of the day were positive but more the result of good bet construction then handicapping. I don't always focus my blog on the bet construction mechanics for time constraint reasons, but soon I will do a cradle to grave blog post with spreadsheets and all on both side of the equation. I get more satisfaction from the handicapping side of things, but I get less grief from Mrs. Turk when the betting side of it pans out. A dichotomy for this horse players soul for sure!

Race 8 Gulfstream Park post time 4:43 ET; The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



The best horse in the race is Quality Road followed by Harlem Rocker, two Pletcher trainees. That said, both enter with questions to answer and will hit the top four on class and skill more then anything else, and either could win, but I'm hunting for value and I like Le Grand Cru to win his third straight Grade III.

Le Grand Cru last raced in late October and has strung two straight upper 90 BSFs together to win two Grade III events. Working steady and fast at GP since mid December. The 5 YO son of Dynaformer is detirmined and will strike the lead early and won't cave in even if he slips back in the middle points of call. Sure its a crap shoot but most likely enters the post >5-1. No worse then fourth.

Harlem Rocker is a grade I winning miler who has raced once in over 14 months. :59 2/5ths at 5f in a handride just before XMAS, sharp enough to be competitive, talented enough to win.

Quality Road needs no introduction to most observers of our sport. Supremely talented, a bit of a tease, I do like him at 1 mile more then >8f but this is the first time back in a starting gate for real since the meltdown on live TV two months ago. I was surprised not to see some gate break training works but I'm not an Eclipse Award winning trainer so I'll zip it.

The rest of the field is a mixed bag, with the best of the bunch being You and I Forever. I'm looking at Spin Master as possibly busting into the top four.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 2, 2010; The Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct

The fantastic Sarah K. Andrew picture to the left is Haynesfield, the winner of the 2009 Count Fleet Stakes. Sarah has an incredible eye and has an ability to capture the competitive soul of the horse very well. Please visit her website and support her artistry the right way. Alrighty, let's kick off 2010 Turk Style.

Race 8 Aqueduct, post time 3:44: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 Mile 70 Yards on the inner dirt for 3 YOs.



The weather looks like typical mixed bag precipitation and cold. The track conditions should be fast and check on the changes before finalizing your handicap.

Ibboyee is the morning line favorite and I would add a heavy chalk going into this race. A winner already at this distance on this inner dirt track, 3 of past four races producing "drew off" wins and upper 80 BSF's. Trainer Pletcher comes in after winning 235 races in 2009 and the Pletcher/R. Dominguez combo won 29% of their races at the Big A over past year. A New York bred son of Medallist, races in the Black and White Diamond silks of Anstu Stables. 8-5 on the morning line, could easily go 4-5 or lower. I will back the heavy chalk and try to build reasonable exotics off this key.

Turbo Speed is a Houghton trained and home bred from the families Sylmar Farms. The word "driving" was in his running line in all three of his races, of which he is 3 for 3. A big step up in distance and class but appears very capable. Not a lock for Place, but top four is a realistic goal.

Laus Deo is a Fox Hill Farm, Anthony Dutrow conditioned horse, a son of Medaglia d'Oro and Dam Shebane (Alysheba). Very classy but needs to show a bit more today after breaking his maiden the last time out at 7f . A. Dutrow won at an astounding 28% clip in 2009 and Dutrow/Cohen combo clipped away at 36% with over 130 races together. A. Dutrow's Stakes win percentage is a gaudy 31% on 55 races and his won last start is 39%. Wow!

Peppi Knows is a Steven Got Even gelding with 3 wins already and the only appearance in a graded stakes, a beaten second in late November. Best effort so far was on PID fake dirt. A LATE UPDATE Peppi Knows has scratched.

It's a bit early to have a fully fleshed out bet strategy, but exactas with Ibboyee and a few straight Tri and Super bets will be my focus. I've already added some color to my base handicap and I don't see my thoughts changing much between now and tomorrow, but as always, watch the tote and consider the risk/reward of every bet you place.

After reviewing the 2009 New Year's Resolutions for The Turk, I've decided that I did pretty darn good by stating some goals publicly and we'll see if we can't some mileage out of that ploy again. My early season resolution is to attend the Arkansas Derby on April 10th at Oaklawn Park. With the poly tracks severely limiting the Kentucky Derby hopefuls coming out of California, Oaklawn will see more horses like past winners Curlin, Laywer Ron and Smarty Jones pass through the winners circle, as well as horses like last year's winner Papa Clem who know they must leave California before May and try the dirt.

My mid summer goals are to make another trip with my family back to Arlington for Stakes racing as well as another all Turk adventure to Saratoga. It was my pleasure this year to have three generations of Turk horseplayers picking Careless Jewel in the Alabama. The races I attend mid summer are always dependant on Little Turk's soccer schedule, as I do have my priorities where they should be.

My late season goal will be to attend the Jockeys Gold Cup at Belmont.

My 2009 goal of turning at least two people into horse players went well. I have been purchasing copies of Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies and giving them to folks I think I can influence, albeit slightly. I was proud to see a few of them place their own bets at the OTB, on their own nonetheless. Baby steps is still progress.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 3, 2009

The Turk has a few axioms he lives by as a handicappper. Most of these handicapping rules I stole from other people, men like Brad Free and Andrew Beyer, but that's neither here nor there and luckily personal integrity isn't mandatory to bet the ponies.

The most important thing we do when picking horse races is identifying what horses have a chance to win and which ones don't. I love to state the obvious. Picking potential winners out of a field of twenty or less is where it all begins. The sexy handicapping thing is to talk about exotic plays with matrix charts and wheels. I'll save sexy for other people and I'll stick with simply trying to identify who I think will win, who I think has a chance to win, and who doesn't have a chance in a one horse match race.

In the races I handicapped yesterday, I identified three of the top four horses in each race. Of course I'd prefer four for four, and I strive for that type of perfection, but it is what it is. What we do with the information of who may win is where sexy comes into play. Turk won't be bringing sexy back anytime soon.

In Race 4 at GP, The Spectacular Bid, a 6f shindig on dirt for 3 YOs.



Notonthesamepage had been beaten soundly by some of the best 2 YO's in fall racing, taking on Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, Munnings, Square Eddie and Pioneer of the Nile. He drilled 4f and 5f works since early December and the reduction in distance powered him to an impressive win by 8 1/4 lengths. I missed with Jazzandthemagician, and I never saw Bee Cee Cee, nor did the bettors.

In Race 8 at Aqueduct, The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards on NYS dirt, the result was not surprising to anyone. Haynesfield winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a slim 5 horse field propels himself squarely onto my Derby watch. I was disappointed with Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, and hopefully they will be on a track again within 4-5 weeks.



And at Santa Anita Park, The Great Race Place, Race 8, The Monrovia Handicap G3, About 6 1/2f on the downhill Turf Course, for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.


Jibboom was my only A plus horse, my chalk, going into the race. I liked his works of 4f and 5f going into the race. I was happy with the odds up on the board and cashed $5.40 on the win. I liked Society Hostess, but she never really fired. I never saw Christina's Heat and I had her lumped in as a B minus, top 8 horse. Good for her. Looking at her in hindsight, she's a steady girl, and she gave her usual steady effort yesterday. I'm going to watch her and see where she's entered next.

It was a fun first weekend of the new year.

The Nomination is in: January 3, 2009: The Count Fleet at AQU

The Nomination is in. The first handicapped race of the year is The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards in the dirt of AQU for 3 YOs.




This is a tricky race to predict. Haynesfield has won at this distance and his top two Beyers are very solid in comparison to the others. He takes on two classy horses in Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, classy but needing to show something.

I think it's a coin toss, but The Turk likes the chalk Haynesfield. I'm going to watch the board right up to post and make a game time betting decision. If I do bet I'll look to place Haynesfield in an exacta with either the 1 or 2 horse, and it will be odds driven as I see little seperating these two horses right now.

For the record, Little Turk likes the 3 horse, Jess Not Jesse and Mrs. Turk likes Pitched Perfectly.