Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 24, 2009

The Turk didn't get much time with the Sunshine Millions yesterday, as occasionally Turk marital obligations must be reckoned with. Dinner, wine and board games with some neighbors took precedent. That prevented the California races from being analyzed very deeply, but I had plenty of time to mull over the two Florida races I handicapped with very mixed results.

Race 8: Gulfstream, The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles for 4 YOs and up.



No real surprises with Wild Promises. It was expected and predicted, so what do we do when we have such an overwhelming favorite who we believe will win? Well we can either sit on the sidelines or, in the Turk's case, try and find some longer odds to sneak in there for an exacta or tri.

I tied my boat to Zee Zee and Peach Flambe, the number 2 and 4 bettors favorites. Zee Zee menaced at the top of the stretch but she faded. Peach Flambe was a non factor. I discounted Elusive Lady's chances, but she ran a very good race with Alan Garcia up.

So what can we learn? Diving back into the PP, Elusive Lady's Trainer Kimmel has won 25% of the time in the second race back after a 180 day layoff. Not much to hang your hat on. I see a G3 winner who didn't win all last year. If I had to draw any conclusions, I always go back to current form is all that matters, and Elusive Lady and Julie Tuttle (with her own non descript PP)both raced in the past three weeks while the others were just getting their legs under them. I considered it while handicapping, but let it go. Everything is crystal clear the next day.

Race 10: Gulfstream, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YOs and up.



I thought Delightful Kiss would run well, but it was asking alot to win from the 12 spot. What I really am kicking myself on is It's a Bird. Going back to my red flair pen PP notes I had scribbled "Closer. Extra Distance from the 1 Mile Hal Hopeful will help. I noted a nice 38% trainer win rate on dirt and that the horse had won 3 of last 12". A :47 and 4/5ths 4f bullet five days earlier was not missed. I had a B on this horse and again, it's always more obvious afterwards. The whole point of disecting post race is to learn. It's a Bird ran well exactly three weeks earlier and ran two nice works afterward, indicative of health and good current form. Current form, current form, current form.

I was happy for Dry Martini, and I'm glad to see the gelding back in Tagg's barn. Macho Again had a bad trip and wasn't where he needed to be for the stretch. Atoned might be a good example of a long layoff horse that just wasn't ready to go mentally the first time the gate opened. Current form, and or lack of, is just as much mental as it is phyiscal.



I'm going to go through the exercise of working backward from the race charts back to the PP for Santa Anita's Race 8 and 9. I wasn't surprised to see Leah's Secret or Georgie Boy win, but I'm going to do a bit of school work and see if I can make sense of the order of finish from the chart back to the PP. I'll be posting those this week.

The Nominations Are In (Part 1: Florida): January 24, 2009

The Turk is a slow handicapping machine. I'm in sensory overload on days like today with the Sunshine Millions taking place in Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. So many races, so many favorite horses running, what to do, where to start?

I'm going to start in Florida because it's in my time zone, and I'm going to handicap Race 8, the Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/8 miles and Race 10, The Classic, at 1 1/8 on dirt (how novel).

Race 8: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles, for F&M 4 YO and up, bred in CA or FLA.



I don't have a bet strategy yet, nor do I often share those anyway, as that's not what the Turk is about. I grade em', I put together likely orders of finish, and I make 5 minute to post betting decisions that look to maximize the ROI on my 2 bucks. I'm not a whale, more like a pretty good guppy. I digress.

I think Wild Promises is the class of this race. Without looking at the Morning Line, which Turk shuns, I think that this girl will go off at odds only a bridge jumper would love (or Mama Turk, but again I digress). One of my favorite angles when I do bet is to wait for races with such a money magnet like this and either a. hop the train and hit a low risk, ok reward multi horse bet or b. look for someone to beat the chalk at a big price. Both angles are fun for me, but I like the latter better because most of the time you'll swing for the fences and lose, but every now and then....

I'll be honest I don't see a way to beat Wild Promises yet. I think Zee Zee could. I never hold the poor animals to blame for thier trainers, and while I dislike Mr. Dutrow as a fan, as a dispassionate gambler I'm impressed by the tainer stats. The horse hasn't been a winner, but she's fresh and has worked steady and regular. I like the Albarado/Dutrow combo to perhaps win at >3.5 to 1.

Just a hunch, but Peach Flambe I think will run well and could go off >10-1.

And race 10, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up bred in CA or FLA.



I could sing a slightly different tale of handicapper woe to you, but the Turk doesn't sing too well anyhow. I think this race has 5 legitimate horses who could take win or place and 8 of 12 who could argue for show money.

I don't think Delightful Kiss is starting in a good spot, and while I think the gelding is the best horse, I'm going to gamble against him winning. Instead, I'm looking for Atoned or Macho Again as likely winners, although Atoned seems more content to be second best in life. Tagg could have Dry Martini primed for a big race, but I like Hey Byrn as a legitimate longer odds horse and from left field I like Medzendeekron, owner of a 4f :45 and 2/5 and a 7f in 1:24 3/5's to maybe pull a shocker at >12-1. The trainer's turf to dirt is 23% but this horse is very unproven on dirt. I think it's worth a 2 buck flyer.