The Nomination Is In: The PID Mile $200K

War Correspondent

Welcome Friend to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Between family commitments and my school work resuming (yes, a 50 something college kid), I wasn't much of a handicapper or blogger this weekend.  I handicapped the Northern Dancer and Woodbine Mile yesterday but only placed one bet on each race, a $10 win bet on Noble Thought and Glenville Gardens in the respective races but no joy.  Both were 10-1 and I liked their chances and have no regrets about taking a shot.  Most on Twitter that I respect thought both races would go to the chalk and Johnny Bear (who I rated very similar to Noble Thought) who also was about 10-1 nipped Hawkbill at the wire while World Approval really impressed me and I haven't been that high on the grey/roan previously.  He answered questions for me yesterday to move to 4 wins in 5 starts in 2017 for Trainer Mark Casse.  I am getting very excited about Breeders' Cup and he'll present a real dilemma for me. Anyway, my ROI was negative and I lost $20 of investment capital.  It happens and its important to remember that if you don't swing for vulnerable chalk you'll be passing up about a 68% chance of winning.  Vulnerable is relative, obviously!

I'd like to see Presque Isle Downs improve.  The product has been mostly bottom tier for a long time now.  They have a nice 1 mile oval of fake dirt that plays fair.  They have one big race Monday night in the Grade 2 PID Master, the 5th race on an otherwise blah card.  Pick up your game and connect with your audience and don't just collect slot money.  I don't want to be negative.  This was a nice start 5-6 years ago, but no progress is no progress.  The racing seems solely to exist for simulcast feeds. 

Let's get after this!




This should be competitive with War Correspondent and Ghost Hunter on top.  War Correspondent is a very classy 7 year old War Front, lightly raced with only 14 career starts while Ghost Hunter is also 7 and has 48 career starts. 

The next five could finish in any order but my base handicap is my best view of the order of finish.  If going towards Tri's and Super's I think Black Tie Event or Downtown Cowboy, with 14 PID wins between them, could keep running where others ease and get into those last few spots on the ticket.  I am wary of that but I don't think either can win. 

Have fun with it friends.  I think Sister Turk and I are headed South to The Masters tomorrow and I'd love to meet any of you that will be there, but unfortunately, most will just be watching a feed. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Presque Isle Downs PID Masters Grade 2

We all have our racing traditions, and a fairly new one for me over the last few years is to play Presque Isle Downs pretty heavy immediately following the close of Saratoga. For those who have never been there, it's a nice racino near the shores of Lake Erie, about 90 miles south of the Turk's home near Buffalo. With a pumped up purse structure, the track has several big race days that attracts shippers to its very fair playing tapeta surface, the same fake dirt that's in Dubai and Golden Gate Fields, and in the Turk's opinion, one of the best.

Like with the majority of my life, I'm out of sequence with the mainstream. I enjoy Fall Racing more than I do the craziness that is Del Mar and Saratoga, and far more than I do the Triple Crown season. The next eight weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup is my favorite time of the year in racing, with horses being conditioned towards reaching their peak form, with the best of the best aiming for World Championships. As a fan of the handicap division and turf runners, these next few months represent what I enjoy about racing. I just don't care for two year old racing and quite honestly, I'm not that into three year olds. I like warriors and warrior princesses, I like to see 15 starts in the lifetime line and I like to see lots of tracks and lots of last furlong battles. I'm an information handicapper and a fan of the hard knocker's. Let's get it on!



Groupie Doll seems to be head and shoulders above the rest here. Before injury, two straight Grade 1 sprint wins by a combined 10+ lengths. Training sharply for Trainer Bradley, a :58 for 5f 15 days ago shows her to be fit. She will press the pace before unleashing a powerful close.

The field is big and talented. The Turk likes big fields, 9-12 horses is my preference. Below Groupie Doll is a talented collection of horses that can be had for a price. I'm anticipating Groupie Doll will go off even or less than even money which will create some real opportunities if the daughter of Bowman's Band stumbles.

Salty Strike (pictured above winning the Grade 3 Dogwood) comes in for trainer McPeek off three straight wins and a gritty Grade 3 win in early August. No wins on synthetic, no wins at distance, first PID start, but fast and a winner, 7 of 16 lifetime. No Lasix for this girl: From an article written by Joe Aaron after the Grade 3 Gardenia, McPeek said the medication has had an adverse affect with Salty Strike in the past. "It dulls her a little bit when you give her lasix, so we don't treat her with it," said McPeek. "She doesn't need it. She runs very well without it." How novel. She carries a race high 123 pounds, same as Groupie Doll.

It's Me Mom set a smokin' pace last time out at Saratoga; :21/:43 3/5ths before fading. 6 of 9 wins at PID, 8 of 9 in the money on Synthetics and 8 wins in last 13 starts and 11 wins in 19 trips to starting gate. Expect to strike the first turn on the lead. Only concern is how far she'll drop in the last 1/16. Expecting top four finish.

Ariana D and Sweet Cassiopeia have a shot at hitting the ticket but Atlantic Hurricane, shipping in from Woodbine, has a chance to make the most noise. 11 of 11 in the money over the last two seasons.

Post time is in an hour. I better get after the betting.

I'm thinking Superfecta with most tickets singling Groupie Doll on top.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday September 10, 2011; The Grade 2 Grab Bag of the Super Derby and Masters

Who else still looks up expecting to see them? Ten years later and it has yet to mentally compute that they are just gone, these iconic towers that captured in my imagination what the big city was like.

I've stood in the Pentagon, at the very place where the plane struck. I've stood at the edge of ground zero and looked into the pit, remembering the days I visited the building when it was a vibrant and bustling office city.

If you are reading a horse racing blog, chances are you are old enough to have your own 9/11 story. I have mine and I no longer think about the images of the buildings being stuck or falling, I now only think about the names and faces of some of the dead, men and women of a similar age to me, with children, veterans, police and fire fighters. That's all the memory links within my mind lead me to.

Life has gone on for the rest of us, damaged but alive, but for the victims of 9/11, they are locked in time, hopefully resting in peace.

God Bless the United States of America.



I assembled two very simple bets for no reason other than I had plans to see the University of Buffalo home football opener with Little Turk and his buddy, and I had to place the bets and go.

A Trifecta and Superfecta were constructed using my base handicaps. The day was made positive by the Trifecta win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters and the Superfecta win in the Super Derby.

In the hits category I forwardly placed Populist Politics and Awesome Bet in the Super Derby, the 6th and 7th betting public choices, and I had Musical Romance covered in the Masters. I'm looking for misses and i can't really say I blew anything, but that is the fine line of handicapping and betting, one change in position is the difference. I would have never included $46.20 Promised Mandate in my PID Super. I never expected Ariana D. to be so backed, I viewed her as value. Trubs and Meistersinger didn't fire as well as hoped.

Good sized fields with competition up and down the starting gate is much more preferable to me than a five horse Grade I. Good stuff indeed.

Remember the dead, and the loved ones they left behind. Remember the military, the only segment of the American public at war and living as being at war daily.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: 10 September 2011; The Grade 2 Racing Grab Bag- PID Masters and Super Derby

One of my favorite things about horse racing is the selection; You would think the weekend after the prestigious racing meets at Saratoga and Del Mar close that there wouldn't be anything that could interest you: How wrong you would be. I'm a horse racing fan first, handicapper and degenerate bettor second. Sure I love Grade One racing on the biggest stages, on national TV, but there is some good stuff out there almost every weekend of the year, and that's what I am, a weekend horse fella.

I debated what I wanted to handicap today and that debate always starts at the stakes schedule. I had alot of options but I settled on handicapping two tracks I seldom work, Louisiana Downs and Presque Isle Downs. Why? Big fields and the PP's just looked fun. I'm easy (relax ladies, I'm not available).

There were some nice turf events at Belmont, Kentucky Downs and Woodbine, and some nice fake dirt events at Arlington, but I printed The Super Derby Grade 2 at LaD and The Masters Grade 2 at PID and I got the red gel pen out and got engaged. No excuses if I don't have fun, I picked my pleasure.

I received my Breeders' Cup purple 2011 Breeders' Cup ball cap in the mail yesterday.

I am such a geek and I'm completely unapologetic about it. I am so excited about the Breeders' Cup this year and I look forward to meeting more of the great folks I've had the pleasure of getting to know through Facebook, Twitter, and the various racing blogs. It's a nice community of fans in horse racing, eclectic to say the least. One of the things I like about horse racing is the passion of, and the acceptance that women receive as turf writers, bloggers, fans and handicappers. What other non female related sport is that accepting? All good stuff!

Anyway, lets get after this!



I've had some intense handicapping sessions over the past few weeks. They have been lucrative to me but also draining. In the past I may have taken a handicappers holiday and put the red pen down for a weekend, but I've decided this year to handicap every week but only ramp up the effort (and the cash I'm willing to lay down) three or four more times between now and Breeders' cup weekend. My goal is to stay sharp and stay engaged with my PP reading skills.

I learned to handicap in an era before You Tube and Google; I use to handicap whole cards on the night shift of my job (I don't advocate this behavior generally, it was just a 12 hour shift and not much to do). I did not trip handicapping and seldom got any feedback on the races that I handicapped except the WPS results in the next days paper. I feel pretty good just looking at the PPs and nothing much else but the funny thing is, no matter how long I've been doing it, if I don't do it regularly I get sloppy. I'll take a bit of a break in November after the Breeders' Cup but for right now, I'm going to keep workin' it.

I checked the weather at Louisiana Downs. Hot but dry. I'm not much worried about the fake dirt track in Erie, PA, about 90 minutes south of Turk.

Lets start with the Super Derby: Prayer for Relief, the Baffert trainee for Zayat Stables and two time graded stakes winner, appears to be a heavy duty chalk in this spot; two late turns of foot on dirt at 8+ furlongs, two Derby wins in West Virgina and Iowa, Baffert 25% off a 30-60 day break, 25% winning last starts, 33% on dirt. Heavy duty expect 6-5, 5-6 something not worth betting; Let's bet against him!

I'm putting Trubs on top; The Al Stall runner is 2 of 2 at LaD, has 4 wins on fast dirt and is very game. Stall has Sellers up and they combine for 32% wins. Stall has stats that stand up to Baffert: 28% off 45-180 day break, 28% off 30 to 60 day break, 33%winners of last start, 32% graded stakes.

Don't want to throw caution to the wind like the ol' Turk? There will be some legitimate prices that should be considered. Alternation with R. Dominguez up, is a strong runner with 4 wins on fast dirt and 1 win at the distance. The Distorted Humor son is off to a fresh start after abandoning Triple Crown dreams and winning the Grade 2 Peter Pan before coming up a bit flat in the Jim Dandy.

10 cent Super's and fifty cent Tri's are on the menu; I like some exotic possibility here with the value coming if Prayers for Rain falters, even if just to Place.

At Presque Isle I'm hunting for value too and I've settled on Ariana D: 16 of 20 in the money on fake dirt, winless in 2011 with 4 Place finishes and I love the running lines, " gamely...all out inside....detirminedly...up late driving". Desormeaux is up, not exactly my favorite rider but a big fish in this pond. Sweet Lorena is a horse for the course but may not be classy enough to win on a track she generally owns: 15 of 15 in the money at PID, 16 of 18 in the money on fake stuff for the 7 YO NY State bred mare from Langfuhr. Beat the Blues should only be ignored at your own peril.

I'm layer handicapping both races. I will be building exotics and who exactly wins is a bit moot and only matters to drive the value of the bet higher or lower. A nice betting menu is available for the PID Masters;$2 WPS, $2 Exactas, fifty cent Tri's and ten cent Super's.

I'm going to sit back and have a bit of fun with these nice sized fields and beatable chalks (at least I hope).

Have fun friends, Turk Out!