Post Race Review with Video of Travers Stake Day

Drefong/Taylor Ejdys/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga didn't disappoint anymore than McGregor/Mayweather did. While I love the brash Irishman, I could never root for the foreign invader over the American.  You have to sort of hold your nose about both of their transgressions in life, but for my money, boxing, when its done right, is every bit the best sport on the planet next to horse racing.  How far outside of conventional thinking am I?  I know....

One thing I've always loved about the horses is they have no transgressions.  These athletes live to perform, give us all they have, and hopefully someone with ethics cares for them until they pass, giving them as best a life as they can have after the track.

I choose Drefong for my picture today as my misjudgment of him was my biggest error in a very successful betting day where I turned a 42% profit on my investment capital.  I respected the champion sprinter very much but I didn't like the gate position and severely underestimated his ability to fly out of that gate and strike the lead before the first turn.  I thought Diving Rod's positioning would deliver the upset but it wasn't to be.  Luckily I covered him in the horizontals.  I didn't play it but Drefong was my only miss in my theoretical Pick 6 that would have paid $7,967.  It was right there for the taking but if you play Pick 6 enough you learn you just have to move on from the misses.

The Twin Spires results tell the tale of my day that started slow and really turned with Races 9-10-11 and 12.

Race 6: The Personal Ensign Grade 1




Race 7: The Ballerina Stakes Grade 1




Race 8: The H. Allen Jerkens Grade 1




Race 9: The Forego Grade 1




Race 10: The Sword Dancer Grade 1




Race 11: Travers Stakes Grade 1




Race 12: The Ballston Spa Grade 2




Final Takeaways:

• Songbird was wildly overplayed. She's a great champion, but the Delaware Handicap was a so-so race Forever Unbridled is better than anyone that was in that race,   I started the day with a defensive $10 win bet on Forever Unbridled, the odds on Songbird were too low.  
• I really underestimated Highway Star.  I had a boxed exacta that his game Place obliterated. She's been training well, and had a sloppy track 96 Beyer at Belmont but I just don't see it on paper.  I was fooled.  My first indication was she was 9-2 just before Post, an 18% win percentage, where I had her at 1%.  Ugh.  
• I liked Takaful more than I liked Practical Joke, but I thought they'd both have a chance to win and the close finish didn't disappoint or surprise. I rightly shaded down American Anthem but over estimated Coal Front.  I won an exacta that lost money-a gambling mistake I should not have made.  
• I've already explained my Drefong mishap in The Forego.  
• I had Sadler's Joy prerace to win The Sword Dancer.  This race seemed so obvious.  I placed my only Trifecta bet of the day and won vertically $34 dollars on a Tri and Exacta.  Wished I'd played more!  I didn't buy the Idaho(Ire) hype. 
• I had West Coast as my co-favorite to win the Travers with Irap.  I had Gunnevera at the bottom of my group that could Place, seven deep, but I can't say I was that high on him.  
• I went into Race 12 with a Will Pay if Roco Rojo (Ire) won of $536 in the Pick 3.  That said, I thought Antonoe would finally upset her older rival, but it wasn't to be.
• I finished with two pick 3 wins and an entertaining afternoon.  

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination In In: Travers Day Grand Slam Race 9-10-11-12

Mind Your Biscuits/NYRA

Welcome Friends to the Second Edition of the Turk and the Little Turk on Travers Day 2017.  The first post of the day focused on Races 6-8-8 while this post is the Grand Slam of races 9-10-11 and 12.

The Turk isn't a big on historical context. I'm a handicapper, a race fan, but I'm not one of the self important  horse racing elites who feel the need to give you  share with you their opinion of which historical runner was better than the other.

I will go out on a limb and say that Mind Your Biscuits is the second most successful NY State Bred of the past 15 years since Funny Cide.  I don't think that will be too controversial.

Race 9 starts a Pick 4 Grand Slam and concludes the card for me.

Let's Get After it!



Race 9 also starts a P3 (9-10-11) as well as the Grand Slam (9-10-11-12) while Race 10 Starts a P3 (10-11-12) as well and I'll be playing horizontally as well as vertically.  I'm going to end my blogging for the day with just a quick preview of the P4/Grand Slam Horizontal that starts off Race 9.




I'll be focused on something similar to these base handicap/bet constructions.  It's time for the Ol' Turk to put down the blog and settle into racing.  We'll talk about the races and the racers themselves more in detail with video in the post race posts.

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 September 2011: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Saratoga

Do you remember where you were on August 22, 2006? When the news of Horse of the Year Saint Liam dying in a paddock accident broke I was in an airport flying West on business. I couldn't shake from my mind the fuchsia and teal silks, Jerry Bailey up. There is a sadness that comes with this sport you just have to accept. Rest in Peace Saint Liam. Thanks to Tiznow Tim for use of the photo.

Havre de Grace, the four year old daughter of Saint Liam , made it look too easy yesterday. It was a confident run against a good field and she had more in the tank at the end than anyone else. It reaffirmed by feeling that our American fillies and mares are the best runners we have, the most exciting, and right now, the most gutty. It makes me appreciate Blind Luck a whole lot too as she wins yesterday if she was the won entered.

let's get after it!





Yesterday was a thrilling day as a horse fan, the type of day that doesn't come along very often. I was happy for Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms, a team that gave me one of my happiest Saratoga memories in the past decade, Hard Spun's Kings Bishop win.

I whiffed on the Pick Three; I didn't want to believe a horse that was claimed in June for $75,000 could win back to back Grade 1 wins but that's exactly what Ask the Moon did winning the Personal Ensign after taking the Ruffian Handicap. Ask the Moon, whose name is now associated forever with Ruffian and Personal Ensign. That would make a good movie script!

The Forego made me sad for Sidney's Candy. Previously trained by John Sadler before being sold to WinStar, the four year old Candy Ride is a turf runner but with Trainer Pletcher at the helm he was switched to the dirt here. i don't mind seeing a horse given an opportunity to take down $750,000, but I wasn't thrilled with how Quality Road's career was managed and I don't see a real campaign being charted for Sidney's Candy either. I respected Sidney's Candy enough to cover him but I wasn't shocked at the dull effort and i was shocked that he was the chalk. I hit the Superfecta and I almost didn't without my late insertion of Aikenite into both Show and 4th. He was really closing at the end.

The betting public had The Woodward cold. The order of finish by ranking on the toteboard? 1,2,3,5,4,6,7,8. I hit a $125 Superfecta on a $54 dollar ticket. Pedestrian, not sexy, but cash is cash. The day I start getting disappointed that I only netted $470 for 3 hours work is the day I'll toss my red gel pens in the river.

With Saratoga and Del Mar ending many casual horse racing fans turn their attention to the NFL, baseball playoffs, college football, etc. I'd urge the new readers I've picked up here at the Turk over the past two months to give the sport a chance to keep you hooked. The Stakes Schedule is full of great races and betting opportunities. Even if you only focus on Saturday racing, which most of the time its all the Turk has time for anyhow, you can continue your handicapping skills and stay engaged with the game. I'm expecting Breeders' Cup 2011 to offer some incredible betting opportunities. Stay sharp friends.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!