The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile $750K

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 9th Year and 11th month of providing horse handicapping and bet construction to people who neither asked for it nor read it much anymore!

The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more.  I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.

Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs?  The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn.  As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization.  The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar.  Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).   




2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good




I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile.  You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.

You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm.  Let's get after it!

UPDATE 3:00 PM ET:  SCRATCH 2 Master Merion.  Turf FIRM. 




Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee.  This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.

In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation;  72.63% chance my top four wins.  This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.

Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago.  The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.



The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble.  It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.

Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F  good turf race at Ascot to Franklin!  He ran a big race in field of 12.



118 Early US Timeform pace.  Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor.  Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners  on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing.  Watch him explode in the straight.




Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K.  4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display.  I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races




Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class.  He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X.  The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.

Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start.  He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere.  Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.





Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23).  Big early Timeform Pace of 124.  Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.."  The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG.  Eh.

I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one.  I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet.  I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Ellis Park Kentucky Downs Preview Day

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.  

I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing.  The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.  

Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion.  Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th.   Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018). 

I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge.  It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes. 

The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf.  The turf oval is exactly one mile.  For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8  The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate.  In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass.  Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out.  He has the best late turn of foot.  Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38%  winners in 32 starts at EIP.  Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries. 

I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win.  I have a trio listed just below:  Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value.  Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show.  The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham. 

Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well.  Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification.  Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf  is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries.  Minor prize only.  

In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing.  Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo.  Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox.  First start of 2018.

Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124.  He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2).  Beware regression. Seim Reip  is a classy under performer.  Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it.  4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting.  My initial thoughts working backwards is to single  Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position.  In the 6th, the easy button is a $2  7-6-3-2  box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12. 

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!