Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 2, 2009: The 135th Kentucky Derby Grade I

The ol' Turk is a horse fan first and a bettor second. The bettor in me is disappointed because of the work I put into preparing for this race, months and months of work, and I could stare at the PPs for the next 10 years and I'd never figure Mine That Bird for anything other then middle to back of the pack. I have handicapped Mine That Bird twice before yesterday: The Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the Sunland Derby, where I wanted to see Kelly Leak run. I was intrigued at the Breeder's Cup only because the horse spent so much time at Woodbine, the nearest major track to the Turk, and that Dick Mandella was his trainer, albeit for a cup of coffee. I still don't see it, but that's why they run on dirt and not paper.

Mine That Bird won by 6 3/4 lengths, a greater margin of victory then mighty Barbaro. For more then 2 furlongs out Mine That Bird drove to the finish. He didn't win in a DQ, he didn't win by a nose, he won in decimating fashion. Was there a rail bias? Sure, but so what. Did pace make the race? Who cares, Mine That Bird made the race.

Yesterday, I placed Calvin Borel's picture on my blog. I choose Calvin because his ride on Street Sense was one of the most exciting trips I have ever seen. How he not only duplicated, but in many ways exceeded that effort, is amazing to me. It was hard not to love the emotion that spilled out of King Carl and Calvin two years ago, but again, a cowboy trainer, a jock who seemingly wasn't getting premier mounts, and owners that are everyday folks ruled the day.

The final two furlongs ran off at :25.17 and the final 3 furlongs clipped away at :40.57. The pace at the front once Join the Dance burned out tightened, as I think the big riders had sized up the competition and were prepared for a last few hops to the wire duel, which it was for Place. Mine That Bird had other ideas and thrilled the racing world in the process.

Race 11 CD: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles of sloppy Ky dirt for 3 YOs.



In color I tried to show that my handicap had three zones; green, yellow and red. Mine That Bird blew up every ticket that I had fashioned, which will bring my inflated ROI back down to reality, which I knew had to happen eventually. All in all, my handicap wasn't bad, but this isn't horseshoes, it's horse racing. No crying over the PP. As I told someone today, I'd rather lose a bet and be thrilled by a horse that people can be excited by.



It's hard to believe the Preakness is 13 days away. The madness that must be descending on Team Mine That Bird must be overwhelming. Who goes from here, who joins this group, what type of betting situation sets up around a horse that before yesterday had a hard time getting a 80 BSF is what makes this game exciting. The race world gets a WHOLE lot more buzz by Mine That Bird winning then just about any other horse except General Quarters winning yesterday. Good Stuff. I am very happy for Trainer Woolley. He's obviously a proud man who does things his way. The Turk has an affinity for trainers like him, a man who channels Frank Whitely Jr. without even trying. I'm very happy as well for the owners who had a May foal and had so much early sucess with him as a two year old, and didn't quit on the horse. I'm unhappy that we don't have a national works clocking standard and horses like Mine That Bird are allowed to sit in NM, most likely working much faster then the midling numbers on the PP show. The team knew what they had. I thought the Peppers Pride story was isolated, but New Mexico has arrived.

The Little Turk made his first communion yesterday. He stuck with Musket Man all day long as was rewarded with a $12 Show bet.

The Nomination Is In: May 2, 2009: The 135th Kentucky Derby Grade I

There comes a time when you are in school that you just can't study anymore for a big test. I use to be impressed by the kids who didn't cram the night before; they worked hard all semester, knew the information, and got a good night of relaxing sleep.

After handicapping every major prep race on these 3 YOs since last October, I'm at a point where I'm past the need to study and I just have to finish the test, and a tough test it is. If this was the Backwater Derby, as a handicapper, I'd walk away. You have a 20 horse field running a distance not a single one of them has ever tried to run. It's the Kentucky Derby though, the biggest stage of the year for the sport I love, and while my bettors mind is telling me to walk away, hey it's the Derby. Let's have some fun, pick some horses, and see how we do. To fans of passion and good guys finishing first, that horse and jock pictured of course is the winner of the 133rd Kentucky Derby, Street Sense, with Mr. Calvin Bo-Rail up.

Race 11 Churchill Downs: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



This one is a race you must watch the weather and the tote board on. There are only two wet dirt winners in this race, Friesen Fire and Desert Party. I'm giving the edge to the LA Derby winner, Friesen Fire. As much as I like Friesen Fire, the betting angle has to be about fashioning tickets out of your handicap and hoping for the best. I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile will get some tickets with me on top, and then I have a 4 horse group (15, 12,7 and 19) that I will use to make up exactas and even a few stright Trifectas, and 10 cent Supers. I'm going keep doing the same things that have made me sucessful over the past few months; Work my handicap, establish my bet limit before I bet, fashion my tickets sans emotion, and pray.

Speaking of praying, Little Turk makes his First Communion today. The Turk is sacrificing his Derby Day rituals for the love of my favorite little handicapper. Little Turk likes two horses, I Want Revenge and Musket Man. . Mrs. Turk took longer then her usual 20 seconds to pick a horse, and she has chosen Hold Me Back.

The Nomination Is In: March 18, 2009 - Kempton, UK: Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes

Wednesday afternoon, 3:50 Eastern Time, a race will go to post in Kempton, UK, about eighteen miles southwest of Central London. On the line is a chance for the 3 year old winner to compete in the Kentucky Derby, earning $100,000 just for showing up.

Sound like the Breeders Cup "Win and Your In" race series? I reckon it is, except those races are contested by horses with legitimate Breeders Cup credentials. This group, I can't tell. I can say that the 14 horses that will compete have earned a cumulative $21,000 in earnings in 2009. The Turk was bemused by quotes attributed to Tom Aronson of Churchill Downs Inc while in England promoting the race. Mr. Aronson said, presumably with a straight face, that "The excitement provided by Bold Arrangement, Arazi and Johannesburg when they ran in the Derby was palpable." Palpable? Mr. Aronson went on to explain that this race was leveling the field for European horses who can't get enough graded stakes earnings to win a spot in the Derby. Why is it OK that one of these horses will take the place of some fine colt who did earn the 21st highest earnings but was bumped so we could feel good about leveling the playing field for our European cousins?

Isn't that the role of the Breeders Cup, to be inclusive? I'm all for a Euro coming to the States in November with a 2 year old and then running in the grade III and II grinds in December, January and February like all the other Derby contenders in order to accumulate earnings. The Kentucky Derby is here; our rules, our dirt. This just smells like marketing folks who instead of getting slapped down, got AIG style bonuses.

All that said, I like the idea of a European series of events, and granting a spot in the Kentucky Derby to a horse that has won the right after excelling in a European Derby Trail and winning at least one American prep.

Anyways, I never hold it against the horses. It's the humans that have screwed up our fine sport, who come up with these lunacies. Whatever horse wins has the right, not the obligation, to enter the race on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. I will take a look at the runners because maybe one of them will be among the deep class of 2009.

I broke out Alan Shuback's excellent DRF Press Global Racing tome tonight to read up about Kempton. The course is a level, right handed polytrack oval, 1 1/4 miles in length. Kempton Park opened for business in July 1878.

The stalls (gates) will be in front of the stands close to the first turn, making ground loss significant for those who start from a wide draw. (On right-handed tracks in the UK, the highest-numbered stall is next to the inside rail.)

Race 3: Kempton Park- The Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes (Class 2): 1 1/8 miles on poly for 3 YOs.



It was a goal of mine to handicap more European Racing. I want to spot this year's Spirit One before I get to Arlington in July. I guess this race is as good a place to start as any.

Thanks to Kate in Japan www.keiblog.net for her feedback on the concept of the Derby play in race. I tempered my negative initial reaction after I took a walk in her shoes and thought about it from an overseas race fan perspective.

Past 10 Kentucky Derby Winners: When Did They Start Their 3YO Campaigns?

I was curious as to when the past ten Kentucky Derby winners started their 3 YO racing campaigns.



Interestingly enough, 70% of the past ten winners did race in January. What didn't surprise me is that over the past five years, only two eventual winners ran in January; Barbaro who raced on New Year's Day and Smarty Jones who raced at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. The last two winners did not start working until March.

Like most things in sports, copycat approaches are common. This Turk hopes to see a reversal that would afford the racing world an opportunity to see the three year old contenders race in four preps before the Kentucky Derby.

Happy New Year's to everyone. My horse related New Year Resolutions are (in no particular order):

1. Attend the Santa Anita Derby
2. Attend the Arlington Mile
3. Turn two people into legitimate horse racing fans
4. Improve the quality of my blog
5. Pay much more attention to the Euros
6. Another great Travers trip with the Turk Clan.

Again, Happy New Year.

Road to the Past 10 Kentucky Derby's: More Random Prep Race Analysis

My second analysis of the past ten Kentucky Derby winners focuses on the last two prep races, where they ran, the distance, the class of competition and then how many days remained before they ran the for the roses.



The sample size is small, but with everything about these ten horses, some trends, mostly obvious to fans of the game, are apparent.


1. They don't run as much: While Street Sense was a bit of an anomaly trained by old school trainer Carl Nafzger, Barbaro and Big Brown contested 5 and 3 races respectively, and both had close to 5 weeks of rest leading before the Derby while the other horses averaged closer to three weeks.

Over the last ten years, Derby winners have raced 6.6 times pre-derby. Excluding Barbaro and Big Brown, that number is 7.25 and taking the heavily raced Charismatic out of the stats drops the number of starts in their pre-derby careers to 6.25. Barbaro and Big Brown averaged 4 starts.

2. No one prep race seemed to be the pathway. The Wood Memorial and The Florida Derby each hosted three Derby winners, while the the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby each hosted two winners.

Two of the horses ran an Allowance Race as one of their final two preps and three of the horses had no Grade One races in their final two preps.


3. They Win. Of the 20 last two prep races, 13 wins were registered by eventual Derby winners (65%), 4 horses placed, 1 took show and only 2 horses finished out of the money (10%).


In a vacuum, none of these random bits of information mean much. Taken together, a picture forms of the tracks where the next Triple Crown winner will run, the preps he will be in, the percentage of those preps he will finish in the top three, etc. I wish there was a divining rod for Derby winners, but this is more fun.

The Ghosts of Christmas Past: The Derby Winners and the Trail They Blazed

While the Turk is taking no real pleasure in holiday season horse racing, it's not to say he isn't having some fun. I spent some time over the past few weeks at Equibase, and in my cub reporter's notebook I've assembled a snapshot of how the last ten Kentucky Derby winners arrived at the first Saturday in May.

I guess the thesis statement is: Does a horse's preparation to increasing distance, surface, changes in venue, competition against class, and experience point towards a potential Derby winner?

As a horse player, I dislike hype. It's inevitable. Modern trainer with more horses then he should have has one of them win a graded stakes race=reporter asks him for quote=Modern trainer starts off aw shucks but declares the horse a freak with unlimited potential=Horse joins a list of 20 "on the trail". I hate hype. The horse did win, but against who? In what pace? Did his trip unfold like the Red Sea to Moses?

While I'll never go media dark and I'll read all the articles about this year's super horses, this Derby season I'm going to do my Turk best to develop a top ten Derby contender list based on nothing but what I see on the track, in the PP, and in the works. My list is like a brand new etch-a-sketch right now, blank. I'm setting aside hype and I'm spending January and February studying the 3YO's. I'm going to post my list every month, but it will be a work in progress right up to Mid-April.

Before I look forward, I will spend some time looking back.

It's hard to believe how long ago Charismatic was. My follicle count was much higher, The Patriots were still an NFL doormat, and the idea of a horse racing blog filled with video and pictures wasn't imaginable to me. About the only thing that was the same was my 401k balance, but that's another rant.



I'm going to throw up several more spreadsheets about these ten horses from the angle of earliest race, progression of distance, speed against distance. Maybe something will stick to the wall, or maybe it will just be noise.......

Happy Holidays.