The Nomination Is In: The Beaumont Grade 2 at Kee and Remembering Maram

Readers of the Turk know that one of the key things I preach is not to allow outside influences, horse hype, to interfere with your handicapping. It's a very difficult thing to do, as race fan's, we want to read and follow the sport, but to do so injects bias, other's opinions, into what we think.

Sometimes I like to handicap races where I don't have any preconceived notions of the runners. A 3 year old filly sprint race for example, like the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland, provides me that opportunity.

It's just numbers to me. My handicapping of horses like this has to be, as I've seen very little video of the races these fillies have been in, nor have i seen any in person that I know of. The gals have an average of 5.45 career starts, a mix of dirt, fake dirt and turf, and plenty of work on the work tab. Numbers: as long as I have em', I'll handicap em'.

I have never done well as Keeneland since the switch to the fake stuff. the combination of limited knowledge of the runners, and a track I don't handicap well, doesn't encourage me to invest my betting capital with confidence, so I'll build a handicap, build a bet strategy, but in full disclosure, my not plop down real money.

I keep track of theoretical bets, something I have done for years. My ROI is higher on theory bets than actual bets and I think the reason is pretty obvious: The fear of losing isn't there with theory betting and it makes you a bit more daring, perhaps more reckless, and I know that some of my biggest real strikes in life is when I am a bit reckless.

Anyway, I'm not sure If I'm betting for real, but let's get after it!



Training at Hollywood for weeks now, Ciao Bella Luna returns to fake dirt and cuts back in distance, a 21% angle of Hollendorfer's.

Perhaps two safer top picks, Magical Moon and Judy in Disguise (GB) break in the middle of pack. Judy in Disguise likes to be right on the pace and has strung to very good races together, with Mike Smith up this time, third pilot in three races.

Al Stall's Magical Moon cuts back and switches from turf. As a 2YO, raced at KEE in a Grade 1 and was a game Show.

Chad Brown's Premier Steps (Ire) switches from turf, something Brown has a goose egg with in 11 tries, and Brown's fake dirt record is a goose egg as well. Brown is a wonderful young trainer, and I'd be remiss to not mention Maram, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf champion, who passed away last year, far too young. Rest in Peace Maram.

Irish Presence is one I may have wrong: Gary Stevens up, the Midnight Lute gal had a bullet at Hollywood this past week and is 3 of 4 in the money on fake stuff.

Renee's Titan comes in off a poor dirt effort at 1 mile after winning on the dirt at 6.5 panels. Only 1 win in 5 tries on fake stuff. A closer, will have to navigate traffic too. I'm not sold.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Maram

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Friday Filly and Mare Turf Grade I at Santa Anita

That fine looking 3 YO Juddmonte Farms filly is Grade I winner Midday (GB). A solid second at 1 1/2 miles at the English Oaks and winner of the Grade I Nassau Stakes with a career best 120 Racing Post Rating at 1 1/4 miles. She'll attract much betting attention in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf against many older filly's and mares including last year's champ Forever Together.

Race 6 Santa Anita Post Time 5:23 ET; Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on beautiful Arcadian turf for 3 YOs and Up.


Betting strategy all weekend will focus on exotic Super's with defensive Trifectas, Exactas and Win Bets mixed in. Ye' Ol' Turk has selected 8 of the weekends races and have set a 20 dollar limit on each race and we'll see what we can make out of that.

Forever Together is last year's champion and my tentative chalk in this years edition as well. A Grade I and II winner in 2009 and 11 of 11 lifetime in the money on Turf. Trainer Sheppard won 28% of his Graded Stakes entries this past year and he clips along at 33% when coupled with J. Leparoux, up again today.

I expect Magical Fantasy will slip to 4th best or lower with the betting public and I'm hoping she'll provide some value to the tickets. Solis is up for this Gallagher conditioned filly, the combination has not had overwhelming success and the handicap is more about a belief in current form, ability to handle distance, familiarity with Santa Anita and three straight Grade I wins. Training on turf regularly, will have to find more speed on this big stage, something that the competition and class of the field may bring out.

Midday (GB) is a high class 3 YO racing on Lasix for the first time. 6 of 6 in the money in 2009, second by a head at English Oaks at Epsom in June. 2nd effort off a >45 day layoff, the last time doing that she improved her Racing Post Rating by 10. Firmer turf should be well received.

The next group of runners are closely aligned in ability. Pure Clan, with Gomez up, comes in off of sharp work at Churchill Downs and owns three 1 1/4 mile wins in her career. The Clement trainee Rutherienne is a fairly consistent runner from Pulpit who hasn't proven herself of late past 8 to 8.5 furlongs. I view Visit (GB) and Dynaforce as a push, with a edge to Visit(GB) who raced a career best in last year's edition of this race leading at the top of the stretch, but only 1 win in past 12 starts leaves me feeling kinda ugh. Maram is a favorite of mine but I think is in over her Breeders' Cup head here.

The Little Turk and Mrs. Turk are both backing Forever Together as well.

Forever Together, looking magnificent in the Terence Dulay photo.


Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 12, 2009: The Garden City Handicap Grade I on Turf at Belmont

There was a determined Turk at work today. My process for handicapping is long winded to begin with, and tiring, which often limits me to no more then three quality handicaps per day. I looked at the Belmont card on Wednesday night and took the advanced Past Performances with me on my business trip. I wanted to take a trip back to IRS ticket cashing window in a big way, a handicappers happy place.

The Turk has waxed poetic before about being a humble handicapper. You have to be as horses make fools out of good horseplayers daily. When you are a public handicapper, be it a big media type, or just a small lil' ol' blogger like the Turk, you are going to make handicaps that don't work. Just last week I had a horse dead last who finished first. What humbled me more was he attracted lots of action on the tote board and I just couldn't see it. Like a cornerback burned by a deep bomb to Terrell Owens, I let it go and went back on the field. Now I said, stay humble, but I said nothing about being confident and determined. I don't think you can be a good horse player if you pick scared. You might as well just either stick to show bets or bet the track handicappers selections verbatim.

In today's Garden City Handicap at Belmont I created a handicap based solely on the past performances. I was familiar with just a few of these horses and that helps me to focus on the information in the PPs only. My pre race chalk, Maram scratched early in the day. A reader and fine horseplayer tipped me off that it was being reported in the Form, which I would have gotten to. I get some head scratching for this part of my process when I explain it to people, but I almost never read about the races I am going to bet on before I handicap. I found that I was susceptible to pre race hype. I found myself shading my handicap towards things I read or heard and for me, that just wasn't working. There is a time and place for research, and because I bet mostly Graded Stakes and because I bet so few races per raceday, I do circle back to the media and blog stories, mostly to see if my handicap choices are completely contrary to opinion or right in line with what others think. I like Maram and she'll be back.

It's important to prepare a handicap that becomes a betting tool. When Maram scratched, I didn't panic. I built a bet strategy using the next horse down in my handicap, Miss World. I wasn't shaken when Gomez came off the mount either, I just dealt with it and decided to roll the dice.

I typically never exceed $20 dollars wagered in a race and I limit my losses in any given day to $40. I have rules and those are mine, and you should have yours. You can't spend your way out of a slump, at least it's never worked for Turk.

I took a stand with Miss World, Shared Account and Gozzip Girl. As I said pre race, if certain runners went to post at odds I considered very favorable I would bet Win and Exacta, not typical bets for me. I was rewarded with $231 in a Win and an Exacta Bet.

I swung for the fences though. I generally build my Superfectas in a matrix. I take all the horses that I think can finish in the top four and assign them values. I then eliminate all the combinations that are not likely or low value returns. The risk/reward factor is very important as betting the Tote Board favorites 1-2-3-4 just doesn't return enough for risk. I settled on nine straight Superfecta choices, a small percentage of the combinations my choices would have generated if using box bets. I was rewarded with $2,687 when I realized that I liked Keertana more then Katara and inserted her into a combination.

Race 8 BEL: The Garden City Handicap Grade I; 1 1/8 Miles on Soft Turf for 3YO Fillies.





It was workmanlike and a bit lucky, but luck has a place in a horseplayers arsenal.

Good Stuff, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 12, 2009; The Garden City Handicap Grade I on Turf at Belmont

The Turk just returned from a trip into the Northeast where it was windy, rainy and feeling very much like the Fall. My black eyed Susan's are fading and a few of my trees are shedding leaves. Being a Northern Soul, I embrace the four seasons and don't dread the coming snow but instead I am grateful for life, love and the Autumn Meet at Belmont.

Let's get to it!

The Main Track is a sloppy mess and the Turf Course is already listed as Soft with races 1,5,9, and 10 moved to the Main. You can look at the hour by hour forecast at Belmont, but the damage is done and I wouldn't expect track condition to improve much as the day goes on.

Everything is a handicapping angle. While the Turf being soft is a hard challenge, we will stick to trying to identify a base handicap of current form, class, pace and distance and jockey/trainer success in the race specific situation. With an off turf situation, Turk's looking for late finishing speed to be what rules this race.

Race 8 at BEL; Post Time 4:43 ET (but watch for the card to be compressed because of weather); The Garden City Handicap Grade I; 1 1/8 Miles on inner Turf for Fillies 3 YO.



Trainer Chad Brown, living the dream with a 21% win rate, brings Breeders Cup Champ Maram back for her second race off a very long layoff. Maram has been training very sharply at Saratoga and banged out a bullet 5f in :59 and 2/5ths on the 7th. After her long layoff she won at One Mile on the Turf at Sartoga with a lifetime best 90 BSF. Only her 5th race, shes undefeated and has a yielding turf Grade III win at Belmont under her girth strap already. I like her post and her tactical speed. I like Chad Brown and he's starting to develop supertrainer stats and I hope that is a compliment: 24% on Turf, 22% Graded Stakes, 26% 31-60 day layoffs.

The Clement trainee Miss World is coming off a win on turf listed as good in a N1X at SAR in mid August. This is a big jump in class for the daughter of Bernstein, but it's called gambling for a reason. We like to think of it as educated gambles, and we like the late speed and the guts. A jock change to "no place like his California home" G. Gomez signals intentions. Most likely will go to post >6-1, there is value in her if she finds the top three and that's how I'm approaching it.

There is SO much to like about Gozzip Girl; A Grade III, II and I winner, 5 of 6 on the Turf, a race best 97 BSF lifetime, Desormeaux up, a yielding turf win,and great Jock/Trainer specific stats; 445 win rate together at BEL, 25% wins in Graded Stakes, 25% wins off last start win, 21% on a 61-180 day layoff. And that's my slight rub, freshened since 5 July, breaking from post 1, she's got plenty to win this race but I'm leaning towards a slight fallback to her battle ready competitors. More then good enough to be in top four.

My B Group are a nice collection of runners who will factor in the ticket most likely in the 3 and 4 spot. I'll work some of them in accordingly.

So what's it all mean? I'll be watching the tote and the scratches and the weather leading up to post time. I'll have a superfecta and trifecta strategy based on my base handicap and I'll generate 5-6 variations on that. I'm also leaning towards shifting to some value exactas or even win bets if I get the right price on a few runners here.

Be flexible, but be prepared.

Have fun, Turk Out!

LATE NEWS:
MARAM has indeed scratched.

Gomez is off of Miss World as well.

Breeder's Cup 2008: Juvenile Fillies Turf

The unnoficals are up and Maram is posted as the winner. Great coverage and some good above course shots on the reply.

ESPN is talking to Chad Brown, the trainer. He skipped his grandfather's funeral to be at the Breeder's Cup, and he says the grandfather would have wanted him there. That's great stuff. Chad Brown, you have a big fan in the Turk.

I was very impressed by Heart Shaped. Readers of the Turk know I get a bit misty eyed when I see the Royal Blue, Orange Ball and Orange Striped silks. Aidan O'Brien's horse ran a hell of a race for Place. Prado ran Laragh a bit too agressively me thinks.