The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 15th year of providing racing handicaps and warm hearted banter to people who never asked for it and most definitely didn't pay for it. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for indulging me.
Belmont at the Big A. That's the silliest thing I've heard in a long time. Today's race is at Aqueduct, I'm not sure why they just couldn't say that. I'm not sure why Belmont construction couldn't avoid the fall racing season, but that's over my pay grade. The Woodward. When I first got into horse racing as an adult this race was at Belmont, but it wasn't until the move to Saratoga did I form lifelong memories of this race. Usually on the Saturday before Labor Day, it was a perfect opportunity to spend a last bit of summer at Saratoga, away from the stress of the day job: Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Mine That Bird (a shadow of himself) and Harve de Grace. The race hasn't been so good at the end of Saratoga meet and I'm glad it came back to Belmont where it can be positioned as a Breeders' Cup prep, but this edition? Life is Good and four also rans. This isn't horse racings='s finest to offer.
What do do with something like this race? Don't play it. You're either a horseplayer or you are a fan. If you are purely fan, do what you like, enjoy the most dominant colt in training currently. If you're a horse player, box the other four in an exacta or put the four in the win and the field in the place box and hope for something whacky.
I wish I had more to offer you, but I can't make gold from straw. If you really want some action, don't bet Life is Good at all. Perhaps he has a bad step or doesn't seem right, I'm sure the Jockey instructions will be clear to protect the horse regardless of today's race. Now you got some value. The reality is longshots most likely Place, not Win. There isn't much to be gained except an Exacta with Life is Good to Win and Informative or Thomas Shelby to Place, the two horses I think most likely to be lowest odds on the board. If you must be right, regardless of the betting philosophies against this, single Life Is Good Over Keepmeinmind and/or Law Professor.
The wonderfully talented Sarah K. Andrew's portait of Quality Road is one of my favorite horse head shots of all time. This magnificent animal I am told is friendly and gentle, and on the track there is no better four year in training anywhere in the world. the Turk owns tickets to this coming Breeders' Cup and I tingle at the idea of seeing the greats that will line up against Quality Road on the biggest stage, no longer able to not enter races where he is, no longer able to run against inferior fields. The rubber will meet the road in the Breeders' Cup Classic and my money is on this beautiful monster of a horse.
Before I get all misty and blubbering, we have a Late Pick 4 at Saratoga that i'll take a run at hitting with a thin ticket and a single on Quality Road. Let's go!
Saratoga Late Pick 4 Race 8-11; First Post Time 4:42
I'll wax a bit more poetic in my post race analysis and I'll leave my spreadsheet to speak for itself right now.
While not my Chalk, The Turk is enamored with the pretty mare to the left in the wonderful Charles Pravata photo, Zenyatta. We wish her well and hopes she proves us wrong.
Race 9 at Santa Anita Post Time 6:45 ET; The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on very fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.
I'm not thrilled to be presenting one Euro after another to win but they seem to be better right now on Turf and that form seems to be playing the best on the polytrack. Adian O'Brien has not had success on the American Stage yet but brings a solid runner in Rip Van Winkle with his rider Murtagh up today. Coming in with two straight Grade I wins after getting away in the conditions book from See the Stars, a theme it would seem today and another horse we are giving credit to for running only one beaten length to the superstar. Hedging down and I think he's a very vunerable chalk.
I'm going to give Hall of Famer Baffert's Richard's Kid another chance to show me he's for real. A decent Goodwood followed up his Pacific Classic win. Proven on poly but a big stretch here. Working very well.
Either Gio Ponti or Einstein I expect to step up and possibly surprise for the win and both are capable of being in the top four. How easy it is to overlook these two titans as a knowledgeable horsewoman named Cathy reminded me of today.
Summer Bird has as many wins on an off track (2) as he has on fast dirt, but no starts on turf or poly. In my mind he's done enough to be the 3 YO of the year and if he can find the top three here today, he'll cement his status, but I'm not banking on it.
Mighty Zenyatta is a very very very good horse, a great F&M runner, and a poly monster. I think she should have tried the Classic last year, not this year. I truely hope I am wrong but I think she's wearing down not speeding up and a 98 BSF won't win today.
I have great respect for the little gelding that could, Mine That Bird. I look forward to his 4 YO season and I haven't written him off here, I'm just being realistic. More then talented, but the Goodwood was so-so and last year's BC was abysmal, so this particular form of fake dirt may not be his cup of tea.
That VERY good looking fella looking calm and inquisitive is none other then the Kentucky Derby Champion Mine That Bird, making his return to the racetrack after an eventful few months. We wish him good luck today, as the Turk is a big fan of his, and he'll need it with the crowd he is going against.
Race 7 Santa Anita Post Time 6:30 ET; The Goodwood Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.
I had to go back and re watch the trip that Richard's Kid had in the Pacific Classic. It was a Mine That Bird-esque run that left most handicappers baffled in a similar fashion, not as shocking, as Mine That Bird's rise to Grade I prominence.
The day after the Pacific Classic I went back over the materials and tried to glean something from it. I came to the conclusion that Hall of Fame trainer Baffert is back on the very top of his game. Looking at the way Richard's Kid is training, I would say his current form is sharp and he is ready for a very stiff test today. A bullet at :46 4/5ths in 4f and a nice 1:12 2/5ths at 6f make me give him the tentative chalk mark on his hip. If he wins here, or acquits himself with a strong duel, it will establish the 4 YO Lemon Drop Kid son and one of the surprise older colts of 2009.
Mine That Bird is the kind of plucky little gelding that the Turk has a deep affinity for. Those cowboy connections of his are again in the bright lights after their summer plans went astray when Mine That Bird needed throat surgery and went on the shelf for a bit. We watched as Summer Bird became the "bird" everyone was talking about, but the Kentucky Derby win, the Preakness run at Rachel, the gutty but troubled trip of the Belmont can not be dismissed. Could win or could finish last? A test of faith but I believe in Mine That Bird and I'm hedging he finds the exotic ticket.
Tiago has been a Turk favorite since his three year old campaign. Tiago won the Goodwood as a 3 YO and lost by a length to Well Armed last year. This is a test of faith as well, as current form must be questioned. Hedging more down then up.
Colonel John is 7 of 10 in the money on fake dirt and has won three times on the fake stuff at Santa Anita.
A stretch is Monzante, the 5 YO gelding from Maria's Mon. Only the second race of 2009, his form of 2008 was very impressive and he is training well.
There are lots of possible exotic ticket crashers in this lineup so build your tickets wisely. I plan on using my base handicap and then inserting multiple horses boxed in the 3 and 4 spot. We'll see what we can do.
The Adam Coglianese photo is of Stormin Normandy, winner of the 2008 High Rock Spring Stakes at Saratoga.
Today's edition contains a couple of long time Turk favorites, Naughty New Yorker and Stud Muffin (Two names the Turk has tried to emulate to no avail.) While I think Naughty New Yorker is on the tail end of a 47 race career, Stud Muffin at 5 YO is still a threat and will figure in the tickets today.
SAR Race 7 Post Time 5:48 ET; The High Rock Spring Stakes $86,000; 1 1/8 miles on NYS Dirt raced by 3 YO and Up NYS breds.
I like Trainer Maker's Future Prospect. the 5 Yo gelded son of Freud is coming of back to back 100+ BSF races at BEL at 1 mile and 1 1/16. With Leparoux up today , he's 7 of his last 16 starts and 9 of 12 in the money on fast dirt.
I'm placing a claimer, South Fourth Street, in my top four. Winner of his last outing, an N2X on July 17th, I like the quick return to the track for him. He's six of his last 15 starts and has 6 wins in 19 starts on fast dirt. he seems to favor an off track, but I'm looking for a value horse to place in my top three and top four and Trainer Contessa clips along with wins 24% of the time after a claim.
Stud Muffin will be in the top four, maybe even the win spot. My placement is more of an acknowledgement from me I won't win this without some time of wheel, key or box.
Tommassi is coming off a place at 1 1/8 on dirt and is 6 of 23 on fast dirt. Tr. Bond/jock Maragh win at a 32% clip.
The rest of the field is legitimate and no real sure toss candidates in the bunch. I'll keep to just a few bets and we'll see what happens.
The Turk visited Saratoga on opening day. It was a real treat for me to meet some of my horse racing blogging heroes, real talented and pioneering horse racing blogger folks. While our sport may be in a decline, you could not tell from the crowd at the SPA. I shuffled down to the paddock before race three and got a good look at the horses I handicapped for Race 3, the James Marvin Stakes.
That's my chalk, Finallymadeit, who lead most of the race only to fade badly the last few hops. Congrats to Gold Trippi, who the Turk tossed of course. As there were two scratches, I declined to bet and just enjoyed.
Race 3 SAR July 29, 2009: The James Marvin Stakes: 7F on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.
Again I find myself scratching my head over Riley Tucker. It was an exciting race and it was nice to just enjoy it as a fan.
There is some great writing to be found at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Not only will you find Alliance Blogs, but a feed and a link selection to the best voices in horse racing all over the world.
Enjoy this weekend's races. Mine That Bird returns to action, along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. All good stuff. Turk out!
Race 6 BEL: The True North Handicap Grade II; 6f on NYS Dirt for 3 YO and Up.
It's always good to start your betting day off strong. Prerace, I wasn't thrilled with the six horse field, and I didn't see anyway that Benny the Bull and Fabulous Strike would not finish one-two. I picked Benny the Bull because I wanted a better payoff, but I thought that was an easy Exacta bet, and it was , returning $12.40 on a boxed bet.
Where I think this old Turk did well and what got me excited was I was much higher on Silver Edition then the betting public was. I had him third in my pre race analysis while the bettors had him last. Silver Edition did indeed take third and i was rewarded with $177.00 in Trifecta, for a race take of $189 bucks on $12 investment.
Race 9 BEL: The Acorn Grade I: 1 Mile on NYS Dirt for 3YO Fillies.
As a handicapper, you really can't beat yourself up after you just miss one. I like to make the analogy of a cornerback who just gave up a deep ball and has to go back out there the next play. One needs a short memory as there will be time for analysis later.
I wouldn't have picked Gabby's Golden Girl if I had 10 more chances. I just didn't see it coming. I accurately had the chalk, Justwhistledixie in the Place spot but not much else went right.
Race 10 BEL: The Manhattan Handicap Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up.
Another race, same results. I tied my handicap to Cowboy Cal who took the lead at the top of the stretch and then faded. So we moved along to the main event.
Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I; 1 1/2 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YO.
The Turk tried to make a good bet for the Appleton Turk, two $10 win bets on Dunkirk and Charitable Man. I should have added her money to the Superfecta bet that I made and we would have made some serious hay!
All in all it was a good day of handicapping for the Turk. I hope my fellow bloggers who were there had a great time.
As I got myself excited for the Belmont Stakes, I watched the video of 2007 Belmont Stakes Winner Rags to Riches several times and skipped the 2008 video of Big Brown's belly flop. Let's hope for an exciting and safe trip for all the horses today.
After handicapping several Belmont Stakes Day races, I finally turned my attention to the main event and I realized I didn't need to do much study. Right or wrong, for better or worse, these horses are a know quantity. What thier current form is, sometimes that's the hard thing to nail down, but what the are capable of I think is crystal clear. They do run on sandy NYS dirt instead of paper, so the horse that brings guts and heart, along with ability and current form, should win this test of champions.
Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I: 1 1/2 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
At this stage, I think you have to let your base handicap ride. I'm playing with 20 bucks of the newest member of the Turk clan, a lady we'll refer to as The Appleton Turk, so we're just going to run the traps.
I like The Trifecta of Mine That Bird, Dunkirk and Charitable Man, and I like them in any order. I will go Super Hunting as well and I'll build a few 10 cent boxed tickets together with Flying Private, Summer Bird, Miner's Escape, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the four hole.
It's been a great time blogging the Triple Crown prep races and then the races themselves. Enjoy. Turk out!
Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 Miles on MD Dirt for 3 YOs.
As the horses were loading into the gate, the SAT TV signal at Papa Turk's house disappeared. The 1930's descended upon us. Luckily, an upsurge in horse racing popularity put the race back on the local AM sports radio station for the first time in years, and I had the radio on and the station tuned in just as the gate broke open. Any disappointment I had quickly went away, as listening to the race call on the feed from the Horse Racing Radio Network was very exciting. Not once until the final furlong was the name Mine That Bird spoken on the radio waves, and Musket Man breaking free and chasing was something that was easy to visualize. I enjoyed listening to the Preakness on the radio very much and it created quite a memorable moment for all the Turk clan gathered together. It was a moment right out of Transistor Times as our friend at Equispace would say.
I think I had a pretty good handicap. I was disappointed to see Friesen Fire not show up again, but I was not surprised by the belly flop of Pioneerof the Nile. I thought Calvin Borel did the only thing he could with Rachel Alexandra, which was take her fast out the gate and try to be near the rail and near the front by the first turn. It was an athletic but tiring move and two more hops to the wire and I think Mine That Bird is shocking the race world again. Mike Smith had to do it the hard way, and that little gelding proved beyond any doubt that he has speed and guts. I'm already getting excited about The Travers, we could see a real showdown of horses coming off the mend and horses from this Triple Crown run.
I worked my handicap. It was a methodical bet I built off of what I laid out as the likely order of finish. I hedged Friesen Fire dropping and that paid off. I placed a premium on current form, and that allowed me to not seriously consider Big Drama. The Belmont is three weeks away and that is already setting up to be an exciting showdown. You have to wonder how many will enter, as 1 1/2 miles is a taxing race and any horseman takes pause about the toll his horse will pay just for competing in that race. For more up to the minute analysis and discussion of the Belmont Stakes, read the excellent blogs at the official website as well as take a look at the revamped and very professional looking Throughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage. Don't forget to take advantage of the TBA coupon for cheap PPs at the Daily Race Form. You'll find the coupon code at our home page in the banner on the left.
And while I'm providing you the video of the race, I must thank the Horse Racing Radio Network carried locally on WGR-550 AM Buffalo for saving my sanity yesterday by not denying me real time access to the event.
The Turk enjoys his work. For two weeks now I've been studying the past performances and video on today's contenders. It's a ritual I perform on almost all graded stakes races. The Turk likes to get a bit preachy about consistancy as a handicapper and I'm not wavering from that position. I saw lots of pictures after the Derby of people with the eight horse on win tickets. Great, enjoy your money, I wish I had one, but I didn't. Over the long haul, handicapping horses based on what the past performances reveal, what the morning work reveals, and what your eyes tell you when looking at past trips will bring you results. You have to have thick skin as a handicapper who publishes his picks as you don't get the luxury of recanting after the last hoof crosses the line. These Triple Crown races are hard races to predict, as the quality of the horses is top shelf and for the most part only intangibles seperate the best from the rest. If they weren't so darn complelling I'd only watch, but I'm OK with screwing up the winning results for days like today!
I do like my work. I can't tell you right now where the 3 YO Class of 2009 ranks compared to previous years. If I had to say now, I'd say mediocre. It's not a critism of the horses, more a reaction to so many good horses who fell off the Derby trail and the parity that was left behind. But then again, Mine That Bird pumped real interest into the proceedings and Rachel Alexandra has a chance today to blow the roof off of public interest. These are good things for horse racing, and horse racing can use some new fans.
Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 miles on Maryland dirt for 3 YOs.
I'm working up my bet strategy right now, but I have a pool of horses, 8 out of the 13 starters, that I think could be in the top four. I'll narrow it down a bit and then start to fashion some logical exacta and trifecta bets. I like Musket Man and placed him in my top spot, but the reality is I might have put four different horses in the Win spot over the past two days. I'm going to listen to the handicapping rules I've learned the old fashioned way and work my handicap.
The Little Turk is feelin' General Quarters and Mrs. Turk digs Rachel Alexandra. This handicapper doesn't mind spending long hours only to lose to people who pick a number or name, I'm just glad to get to spend time around the animals I love.
The ol' Turk is a horse fan first and a bettor second. The bettor in me is disappointed because of the work I put into preparing for this race, months and months of work, and I could stare at the PPs for the next 10 years and I'd never figure Mine That Bird for anything other then middle to back of the pack. I have handicapped Mine That Bird twice before yesterday: The Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the Sunland Derby, where I wanted to see Kelly Leak run. I was intrigued at the Breeder's Cup only because the horse spent so much time at Woodbine, the nearest major track to the Turk, and that Dick Mandella was his trainer, albeit for a cup of coffee. I still don't see it, but that's why they run on dirt and not paper.
Mine That Bird won by 6 3/4 lengths, a greater margin of victory then mighty Barbaro. For more then 2 furlongs out Mine That Bird drove to the finish. He didn't win in a DQ, he didn't win by a nose, he won in decimating fashion. Was there a rail bias? Sure, but so what. Did pace make the race? Who cares, Mine That Bird made the race.
Yesterday, I placed Calvin Borel's picture on my blog. I choose Calvin because his ride on Street Sense was one of the most exciting trips I have ever seen. How he not only duplicated, but in many ways exceeded that effort, is amazing to me. It was hard not to love the emotion that spilled out of King Carl and Calvin two years ago, but again, a cowboy trainer, a jock who seemingly wasn't getting premier mounts, and owners that are everyday folks ruled the day.
The final two furlongs ran off at :25.17 and the final 3 furlongs clipped away at :40.57. The pace at the front once Join the Dance burned out tightened, as I think the big riders had sized up the competition and were prepared for a last few hops to the wire duel, which it was for Place. Mine That Bird had other ideas and thrilled the racing world in the process.
Race 11 CD: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles of sloppy Ky dirt for 3 YOs.
In color I tried to show that my handicap had three zones; green, yellow and red. Mine That Bird blew up every ticket that I had fashioned, which will bring my inflated ROI back down to reality, which I knew had to happen eventually. All in all, my handicap wasn't bad, but this isn't horseshoes, it's horse racing. No crying over the PP. As I told someone today, I'd rather lose a bet and be thrilled by a horse that people can be excited by.
It's hard to believe the Preakness is 13 days away. The madness that must be descending on Team Mine That Bird must be overwhelming. Who goes from here, who joins this group, what type of betting situation sets up around a horse that before yesterday had a hard time getting a 80 BSF is what makes this game exciting. The race world gets a WHOLE lot more buzz by Mine That Bird winning then just about any other horse except General Quarters winning yesterday. Good Stuff. I am very happy for Trainer Woolley. He's obviously a proud man who does things his way. The Turk has an affinity for trainers like him, a man who channels Frank Whitely Jr. without even trying. I'm very happy as well for the owners who had a May foal and had so much early sucess with him as a two year old, and didn't quit on the horse. I'm unhappy that we don't have a national works clocking standard and horses like Mine That Bird are allowed to sit in NM, most likely working much faster then the midling numbers on the PP show. The team knew what they had. I thought the Peppers Pride story was isolated, but New Mexico has arrived.
The Little Turk made his first communion yesterday. He stuck with Musket Man all day long as was rewarded with a $12 Show bet.
