The Nomination Is In: The Louisiana Derby

Girvin: Amanda Hodges Weir/Weir Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that has been blissfully bringing handicapping thoughts to a group of hardcore readers since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity today to handicap The Louisiana Derby, a 1 1/8 mile prep race for the Kentucky Derby.

That good looking fella to the left is Girvin, winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star in late February at this racetrack, Fair Grounds.  To my long time readers, you'll know that The Turk doesn't really care at all about two year old racing, and I don't really spend much time thinking about these horses on the Derby trail, like the seven in this field of nine that are Triple Crown eligible.  Am I a  curmudgeon or some anti-social horse racing purist?  Not at all, I'm just a guy who likes a Past Performance sheet to be filled with data, data from 10+ career starts after the age of 3.  I like history, I like video, I'm not that partial to talking about things that I have no clue about, like pedigree analysis.  I also don't care for horse racing journalism about the horses.  Again, nothing against the good writers, but I get sucked into the feel good stories, the underdog stories, the can't miss stories, and that bias throws me off as a handicapper.  This is my Sudoku, my game of Chess, and I try to keep the bias out and the data heavy.

So, where do I start when looking at a Derby prep race?  The same place I always start, with the weather and the track condition and tote board.  Things can change rapidly with the weather here but it appears Friday and Saturday will be mostly rain free and for now we will assume a fast dirt route.

Let's also take a look at last year's LA Derby G2 and Gun Runner.




And this year's Risen Star at 1 1/16 on fast dirt with Local Hero/3, Guest Suite/6, Sorry Erik/7 and Girvin/8 returning in this match.



Trainer Joe Sharp and Brian Hernandez, up, look like they have prepared a very professional Girvin. I also liked Guest Suite who didn't have a great trip but was really coming late wide and I would expect more of the same from Local Hero, lots of speed, but can he carry it? Sorry Erik should be a non factor.

Let's get it on!




When I look at the scant past performance data on Girvin and Guest Suite (9 races between them: 5 wins, 1 place and 2 Shows) I see the Class of the race.  Monaco, a $1.3 Million dollar Uncle Mo purchase at the Spring 2016 sale is very lightly raced, works rather consistently, but hasn't done anything yet, while $0.5 Million dollar purchase Local Hero has enough speed that he will be a factor in his races. Money doesn't buy you happiness or race results, just promise.  It's still very early in the development of these race horses, but The Turk likes horses that have done it before, not just thinking about doing it.

Girvin has been on the shelf and training at Fair Grounds since winning the Risen Star and gamely coming up just short in a 1 Mile Turf race at Fair Grounds in early February.  He appears to have been genetically born to rate.  I could ramble some more but just watch the Risen Star video above, you'll see a nice late turn afoot and a confident ride by Hernandez.  I've always liked the second/third tier Jock Hernandez, the 2004 apprentice jockey of the year.  Maybe his career goes a bit more high profile if he doesn't lose the Rachel Alexandra mount to Calvin Borel.  

Being contrarian in nature, I like Guest Suite in the win spot.  The gelded son of Turk favorite Quality Road, he trains fast, his Beyer's are increasing, and with the extra distance he may be able to collar Girvin.

Patch, a very lightly raced Calumet Farms runner for Todd Pletcher, comes in off a fast one turn affair.  Local Hero, a fast Hard Spun/Liam's Dream creation, will be near the front and the only real question for me is how far does he carry and can he hold on for a minor prize.

Rounding out my contenders for Show and Exotic are Senior Investment and Hollywood Handsome. Senior Investment is a bit slow but rating really well and will be coming late.  Minor prize possible.  Hollywood Handsome has been training very sharply at Fair Grounds and also has shown a late turn of foot.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet.  I think I'll be looking at something like:

a $2 Trifecta of 6/8 OVER 6/8 OVER 1/3/4/2 would cost $16.

Whatever you do, have fun with it and bet responsibly.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: February 19, 2011: Fair Grounds all Graded Stakes Pick Three

The Ol' Turk has been travelin' his arse off the past several weeks and feels like he was taken off the Derby trail himself. One horse he has been excited to see for several months is Santiva, the son of Giant's Causeway, seen above bearing down in a way that has defined his promise so far. Santiva gets Mike Smith up today and Trainer Kenneally gets to take a run with him after both Pletcher and McPeek had him in the barn. Let's get after the all graded stakes Pick Three today at Fair Grounds that features The Mineshaft (with a more compelling field than The Donn) and the Fair Grounds Handicap. Alrighty then.

Fair Grounds Race 8-10; First Post 4:42 ET



As I finish writing my post, I know there will be scratches and changes so please pay attention and I'll modify my spreadsheet as the time comes. The weather shouldn't be a problem and the track is listed as Fast and the turf as good.

I'm backing Apart in race 8. Trainer Stall has the 4 YO making his second start in 2011, something he wins 28% of the time, and has Campbell up, whom he clips along with at 31% win rate. A sharp Grade 3 winner in November and a good finish for Place in January.

Mission Impazible also makes second start of 2011. The winner of the Grade 2 LA Derby last year had a long layoff after a poor Kentucky Derby finish. Love the breeding and the patient approach to bringing him back.

I was about to wax on about the coupled entry, specifically Country Flavor, but they were just scratched. Ugh! A pretty even group sit behined the first two and I expect that Demarcation will run well. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 7 of 12 in the money on fast dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at Fair Grounds and a 20%winner Napravnik up for the 7 YO gelded son of Gulch. Mad Flatter is scratched too and I'll just reorder my handicap as i don't think the race pace will change terribly except Mad Flatter; would have rabbitted.

The Fair Grounds Handicap is the Turk's kinda race, at least it was before the defections, but it's still got me excited. Le Gran Cru, Midnight Mischief and Hidden Glance bail out of this spot where I thought they were a better fit and go in the Mineshaft instead. I built a base handicap I'm comfortable with and if you have your homework done in advance you'll learn to not stress over scratches/changes, you just look to your work and fit the next runner in.

I like the top four quite a bit and in my estimation that is in order Workin for Hops, Loup Breton, Gran Estreno and Telling.

Working for Hops is one of two uncoupled Stidham runners and makes his first start since September, something the trainer does win a 30% win rate. He combines with Napravnik and they clip along together at 33% at Fair Grounds. A very consistant runner that gives an honest effort.

Loup Breton (Ire)goes for Trainer Pletcher after transfering from the world's most interesting man, Julio Canani. The 7 YO is a classy Grade I runner, 5 of 7 in the money at the distance and 12 of 24 in the money on Turf with 2 wins in last 12 goes but over a year since last in winners circle.

Gran Estreno (Arg) is another honest horse for trainer Stidham. Two straight wins and three of four. Telling can only seem to win in the Grade I Sword Dancer, but it's like riding a bike, isn't it? No wins at this distance even with a race best >400 Tomlinson. Joinem and Dubious Miss represent exotic ticket moneky wrenches.

And the latest in tea leaf reading, also known as Kentucky Derby prep race handicapping, we have The Risen Star. Speaking of the Derby possibles, check out the latest poll from The Wire Players crack collection of turf writers and bloggers.



I've been waiting for Santiva for awhile. I loved him in the Kentucky Jockey Club up the stretch and I think the son of Giant's Causeway has guts and a kick.

Also, check out Machen:



Have fun with this. I'm going to be betting each race as well as my reasonably priced Pick Three. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: February 20, 2010; Gulfstream Park Pick 3 with Fountain of Youth as well as Risen Star & Southwest Stakes

Spectacular, Spectacular.
Finally a weekend set of races to get excited about! With last Monday's cancellation of the Southwest Stakes card at Oaklawn Park and a reschedule for today we find ourselves with some very nice three year old action and the races I'm handicapping here contain 35 Triple Crown nominations. I'm skipping a race at Fair Grounds because of time constraints but some Turk favorites General Quarters, Friesan Fire and Giant Oak are going at it and Giant Oak will be taking the main track and scratching from the turf event.. Good Stuff, let's go!

Gulfstream Park Races 8-10; Fair Grounds Race 10; Oaklawn Park Race 10
(spreadsheet attached)



The Fountain of Youth is a thin collection of horses, with the class being Jackson Bend and Buddy's Saint and this Turk is intrigued by the Pletcher trainee Eskendereya who is stepping up in class today. Radiohead (GB)has scratched from the Hutcheson.

Overall, I have no particular bet strategy yet. At Gulfstream Park I plan on betting the Pick Three with a reasonable 2 X 3 X 3 base bet for $18. I'll e looking at exacta's in the individual races. At Oaklawn and Fair Grounds I'm looking for exactas and 10 cent super's.

I'm late to the party today so instead of blathering, I'm going to check out and work out my bets. I'm watching HRTV and the conditions and weather at these tracks looks very good so don't worry about that. Enjoy and I'll be more verbal in the post race.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 7, 2009

The Turk enjoyed today's races, even if they were a bit chalky. As I show, mixing in some longer odd horses with the chalk can still produce a good Trifecta.

Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Whirlaway Stakes 100k, 1 1/16 on dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk felt really good about Haynesfield today, and I also felt and wrote that I expected Mike from Queens to take show. I thought that Peace Town would take the place, and he was there to the top of the stretch before fading and giving way to Cellar Dweller, a horse I had a hunch could make some exotic tickets work today.

I don't think much was reveled today except there aren't many 3 YOs at this meet at the Big A of the quality to take on Haynesfield. His last four races have been won by a collective 19 1/2 lengths. How good is he?

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star Stakes, G3: 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



I'm still shocked that the bettors choice of chalks was Giant Oak. Yes, I liked this colt too, but Friesan Fire in my mind clearly has better current form, and I found it no surprise Larry Jones horse won again.

Post race analysis confirms my pre race opinion that Flying Pegasus was up to the challenge, but I had discounted Uno Mas. It seemed to me the horse had hit a wall and was as good as he would get. While not a great finish, I won't criticize a finish in the money too much. I guess I was most disappointed in Indygo Mountain. He really needs to show something soon, or he just isn't the colt I think he is.

Race 6 at Santa Anita: The Las Vigenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for 3 YO Fillies.



No great surprises here. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. My dearly departed Aunt Rosie would have loved this beautiful grey who showed speed and power today.

I was surprised to see Saucy Evening bet down as low as she was. She ran a gutty race, as did Haka. I discounted African Skies (GB) greatly, but she ran well and we'll look for her again.

Race 8 at Santa Anita: The Robert Lewis Stakes G2: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.



Break out the cigars. Pour the bourbon. The Turk hit himself a nice Trifecta in this race. I liked Papa Clem a lot, for no particular reason and he didn't disappoint. If you can insert a longer odds horse into the Tri with a chalk that will win, if gives you a good shot at payouts like this. I have to count, but I've hit maybe three of these since November. The money I've made just on those three wins easily balances the books on my misses. I have no illusions of beating the races, but I do like to prove that a $2 bettor can break even if he keeps his betting discipline. The tri paid $100.90.

Whew! It was a full day. Thanks to my horse racing friends who motivate me to do my homework and produce the best quality blog I'm capable of.

The Nominations Are In: February 7th, 2009

Spectacular, Spectacular. The Turk would love nothing better then to be at the track today, but which one? If forced to choose, I'd say Santa Anita. If I was picking for the most compelling race to me, it would be Fair Grounds.

The Turk has analyzed five races today: Race 8 at FG, The Risen Star G3, Race 8 at Aqu, The Whirlaway 100K, Race 6 at Santa Anita, The Las Virgenes G1, Race 8 at Santa Anita, The Robert B. Lewis G2 and finally Race 9 at Santa Anita, The Strub G2.

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star G3, 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.


As usual, my analysis is not a betting strategy. I have constructed a matrix of my expected order of finish. As always, I believe strongly in watching the tote board and looking for value, even if that means betting my third favorite to win if his value is just wowza!

I think my two top horses, Fiesan Fire and Giant Oak are far from locks. My second tier of horses, especially Indygo Mountain and It Happened Here could surprise for a solid win payout. I'm intrigued by Flying Pegasus and Giant Oak, as I think their stock could really rise.

Aqueduct Race 8: The Whirlaway 100k: 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



Ho hum field. I expect Haynesfield will continue his dominating streak.

Santa Anita Race 6: The Las Virgenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for Fillies 3 YO.



Another race with a dominating Chalk. Stardom Bound, the beautiful gr/ro hasn't raced since the Breeder's Cup and has a new trainer with Frankel. Work steady.

I'm going to take a 2 buck flyer in the race in the hope that Stardom Bound isn't sharp. My best two candidates are Navigator and Saucey Evening. Like I said, I'd love to see this one live.

Santa Anita Race 8: The Robert B. Lewis: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.



Pioneerof the Nile finds himself all over Derby favorite lists, and rightfully so. He's a synthetic monster and will be a force in California, of that I am sure. Since the Cash Call, he has worked steady and with urgency in his gallop. 6f and 5f work is very, very good.

I Want Revenge gave Pioneerof the Nile everything he could handle in the CashCall. Papa Clem, and a possible live wire, Oil Man, may compete. As I said, I wish I was here today.

Santa Anita Race 9: The Strub G2: 1 1/8 on Pro Ride for 4 YOs.
I'm burned out at this point, so now charts. i'll be watching Gio Ponti, Nownownow, Cowboy Cal, and from the 13 post Slew's Tiznow. I'm taking Nownownow.