Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 31, 2009

The Turk had a very forgettable weekend of handicapping, with the Donn, the Holy Bull and the Santa Monica all giving him no joy. My fellow horse racing aficionado at amateurcapper.blogspot.com tells me quite correctly that the bias was too great to overcome at Gulfstream Park. While I don't disagree completely, I think that bias is relative to the horse, especially at 1 1/8 miles, and that a quality horse can overcome the bias. My mistake, especially in Holy Bull, was throwing the bias out completely.

The Holy Bull G3, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs



The Donn Handicap G1, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up.





Even when you're not correct you should try to learn/decipher/grasp/rationalize what happened, good and bad.

In the Holy Bull I discounted Saratoga Sinner, as much as I loved the name. The horse had worked very fast before its last race in early January. Leading up to the Holy Bull, the horse's work was dull. I'll be watching Saratoga Sinner, but I don't see how you pick this horse to win from the PP. I guess that's why I'm engaging in "loser talk". Steve Byk spoke highly of Reade Baker's Bear's Rocket, and the horse had worked good, but nothing breath-taking, plus the horse is mostly a synthetic runner. Mrs. Turk nailed this pick in full disclosure.

In the Donn, I was on the hunt for a horse that I thought would bring me good value with a legitimate chance. Anak Nakal went off at $11.50, the bettors 6th favorite choice. He had a great run line, "...was outrun...." Really? Did they have a team of monkeys on that? I was surprised how well Finallymadeit ran. Two races in two weeks. Break up the Yankees!

And in the Santa Monica, I picked Ventura, liked Jibbom, and thought Baronness Thatcher would make the top three. Baroness Thatcher was very strong to the top of the stretch and then dropped like a stone.

Back after it next weekend. If you ain't in it, how you gonna win it!

The Nomination is In: January 31, 2009

The Santa Monica Handicap, G1 at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita in beautiful Arcadia, CA. 7 Furlongs on what is called "Pro Ride", fake dirt that maybe is better for the horses, maybe isn't, depending on if you are a Euro who likes to win "dirt" races in the United States or not. For Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.

The Turk apologizes for posting three times for three seperate races. Generally he likes to combine them into one post, but today's been a rather odd flowing day for him, and quite honestly I didn't expect to have the time to handicap all three graded stakes that had my attention.

Today is January 31st. Monday is Groundhog Day. I am a rather hearty Northern Climate guy, but this has been one brutal winter. I'm in the green energy business, so I love global warming because it is making my company lots and lots of money, but you couldn't convince me that the orb is heating up. The two images I present of winter show the joy and sadness of living in the north.

That's the Little Turk, doing what he does best, love life.

And that is Kay, The Turk Clan foundation Weimaraner. She does not like to do her business in the snow. I digress.



It's really a coin toss between Indian Blessing and Ventura. I went with Indian Blessing today because I'm thinking she has better current form. As a live long shot, I like Baroness Thatcher. I like the work, I like the first time blinkers, and it seems to me that she could be there with the best Beyer of her career today.

I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. I don't really see a betting opportunity I like right now, but as always watch the board and look for value against your scorecard.