The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park

Mr. Speaker

I'm not sure about you friends, but to The Turk, the chase for the Triple Crown starts for me after the Holy Bull, today's handicap. I am so "dumb" right now on the 3 year olds, after paying absolutely no attention to the 2 YO fall racing, that I actually feel pretty good. I got too caught up in Uncle Mo, Union Rags, Shanghai Bobby hype over the past few years and it threw me off.

 The fan in me loves the idea of a monster arriving on the scene as a 2 YO and dominating his way to a Triple Crown, but c'mon, in this day and age, is that really possible? As the bar goes lower on American racing, yes there may be the next Count Fleet, but will there be the next Secretariat, and if there were, would the connections campaign him aggressively? I leave those deep thoughts to bloggers deeper than I.  

 As a simple internet handicapping hack (with a solidly black ROI but why quibble?) I'll stick to throwing darts at these baby racers and learn a bit about them, not for what I'll earn on races like this, but for me its all about the Super High Five on Kentucky Derby and Preakness Day. The Super High Five, my Holy Grail, I've won with low four figure results, but I want the big payout one day and that comes from knowing the runners inside and out and a bit of luck. 


Let's get after it!



I don't have much differentiation between the layers of quality I see in this race;  My top layer all seem capable of winning this race and at a minimum striking Top 4.  Mr. Speaker tries dirt for the first time, something McGaughey wins 14% of the time.  Nice efforts on turf.  Dam as had only 3 dirt route starters, 1 win and an 85 Beyer.

Coup de Grace (God I miss Havre de Grace by I digress) is a Fox Hill Farms product.  Going for 2 turns for the first time, a winner at 1 mile here at GP.  Brown/Johnny V getting together for first time here.  Brown is 32% off the layoff and 29% dirt winner, as well as a 17% Graded Stakes winner.  Dam had 5 dirt route winners and averaged an 86 Beyer, which this runner has already achieved.

Cairo Prince:  His sire, Pioneerof the Nile I watched win the Santa Anita Derby in one of the biggest disappointment racing trips I ever had- the Saturday morning scratch of The Pamplemousse, a speedy but fragile beast, which killed what looked like a major showdown just before the Kentucky Derby that year.  I digress again.  Cairo Prince, a grade 2 winner already and Place in the Nashua by a nose to Honor Code, looks to be a good runner for Trainer Kiran McLaughlin, a Turk favorite.  Training very well, McLaughlin is 27% off a break and $272,000 of earnings here already.  siblings have one 2 of 9 dirt routes for $65K and a 85 Beyer, so he's already above the cut for Dam Holy Bubbette.  Lots to like.

My next group seem capable of winning as well but I'm knocking them back just a little bit, rationally or not.  Intense Holiday, the obligatory Pletcher entry, goes from post 11.  Flat in the Remsen although last 1/16th was in :11 and change.  Dam produced no winners.

Wicked Strong also ran a quick last 1/16 in the Remsen for Show money. Dam produced no dirt route winners.  Honest horse who seems like it can rate already, at good price not an unreasonable win bet flyer.

Financial Mogul's dam Trav n' Kris has dropped some accomplished runners over dirt with a sibling best 106 Beyer and a 95 best Dirt Route. Nice rally at 13.7 to 1 for Place in the G2 Nashua.  Violette no wins in 7 stakes races past year and only 7% off a break that goes back to 3 November.  I'm thinking toss.

Almost Famous and Conquest Titan will be the two that screw me up;  Byrne/Borel race Almost Famous off a 75K OC at Churchill where he dominated after hopping out of gate.  No wins off layoff 61-180 days and no Won Last Starts.  At better than 8-1, real value in Exotic mix I reckon.  Conquest Titan goes for Trainer Mark Casse who I respect quite a bit. Dam Miner's Secret has no raced offspring. Son of Birdstone.  Working nice and comes in off 30 November $75K OC at CD at 8 panels.

I tossed three at my own peril.

I'll be honest, I don't like to bet on such lightly raced horses as I'm an information handicapper and there just isn't much here.  If forced to wager I'll go with something along these lines:

$1 Super:  1-6-7 OVER 1-6-7 OVER 1,4,6,7,8,11 OVER 1,4,8, 11 for $60  I stay true to base handicap for win/place, mix in Almost Famous, Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong into Show and Exotic and shade down Coup de Grace across all four spots and assume Mr. Speaker and Cairo Prince are top three.  10 cent version is $6 and you'll make Ok money if it wins.

Whatever you do, bet responsibly and make your own decisions. Don't let hype or some hack internet idiot who talks in the 3rd person influence your investment decisions.


Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Handicapper Homework for Gulfstream Park: The Holy Bull Stakes and the Donn Handicap

Mr. James Donn (pictured on the right), purchased Gulfstream Park in 1944 after it sat dormant for 5 years following its construction. For the next sixty years, a Donn, first James Donn Jr. and then his son, Douglas, led the track by the sea towards being the top destination for east coast trainers and horses during the winter months. The Donn Handicap's inaugural run was in 1959 and the Florida Derby started 1952, The Fountain of Youth 1945, The Gulfstream Park Handicap in 1946, and this weekend's target for me, The Holy Bull Stakes in 1972.

Today is the Sunshine Millions, and while the $500,000 Sunshine Millions Classic can often be compelling, the whole affair of six races between newly dirted Santa Anita and Gulfstream contested over two hours isn't enough for me to stop hunting my real targets. I'm going to keep my focus on studying the track report, reviewing the statistics on the jocks, the trainers, analyzing the results at distance and surface and between today and tomorrow The Turk will do his handicapper homework in preparation for the first important older horse race of the year, The Grade I Donn Handicap next Saturday as well as the Grade III The Holy Bull tomorrow.

The ol' Turk is flying to Calgary and Vancouver this week on business, and homework time will be tight for me as the week goes on. By the time I land in Toronto next Saturday morning after taking a red eye back I'll have little time, on top of little sleep, to just sit down and start handicapping. If you want your ROI to go up, you have to focus on the less sexy aspects of handicapping, leg work. Everybody wants to go to the party, nobody wants to stick around and clean up. Push yourself to be disciplined friends.

When I think about what horse racing was, and possibly what it is missing today, I can't resist my belief that tracks belong in the ownership of custodians of the sport and not corporations. While the Gulfstream of memory from my 1988 visit was more fond than my visit recently, it is hard to argue that the seating is right sized, it's part of a destination, and that the business model is better positioned for 2011 than 1951. It doesn't mean we have to like it but numbers always drive good business and the numbers on horse racing are appalling: A recent Harris Poll showed a 4% drop from 1985 to 2010 the popularity of horse racing with the American public. The sport now ranks 13th overall in popularity, below track and field, bowling and tied with swimming. 1% of Americans claim that horse racing is their favorite sport. That's only about 250,000 people over the age of 18. Ugh, but I digress.

An Equibase Track Bias Report ($3 per report at Equibase.com) will give you the last four days of racing in a very detailed, but not always intuitive, analysis of running style and post positions of the top four finishers as well as information for the previous 12 months. It will take some time if you have never used these reports to "decode" but the effort is worth it and it's something you can't be doing with little time moments before the windows close. If you play a track regularly, a report of this type is less critical, but rain and track maintenance can change a track profile from week to week so ignore information at your own peril. Not surprising, I'm slightly favoring middle post, stalkers and front runners and I want to see my selections between 2-5 lengths back of the leaders at first call in the PPs.

Weather.com is a handicappers good friend. You can get 10 day forcasts,go backward several days and get hour by hour forecasts when inclement weather threatens. Gulfstream appears to be dry for this weekend but it looks like the track may see rain leading up to next Saturday.

For Jockey and Trainer statistics my method is to mix printed materials and current information usually available at the track websites. American Turf Monthly magazine (americanturf.com) generally prints a Betting Guide for the major tracks just before they open a meet. The January 2011 issue contains the Gulfstream Park Betting Guide. I treat the article as background information that must be built upon. An interesting figure from this years guide is that in 2009 358 different trainers started a horse and only 17 had 10 or more winners. In a respectful way they point out which trainers are running well and which ones are doing poorly. Dirt, turf, sprints, routes, you will find the statistics and you will generally find a disclaimer as well; past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Take the statistics and then compare them to what you find at the Gulfstream Park website. It's intersting to look at the data from the current meet and compare them to the previous meet of the betting guide and you will spot anolmalies.


Nine runners are entered for the Holy Bull which starts from the shoot and is contested at 1 mile with one turn. The Donn starts and stops in the same spot around two turns for 1 1/8 miles. The Grade II Forward Gal goes off tomorrow as the 8th Raceat 7f for 3 YO fillies. These two graded stakes with an allowance race in between will be the Pick Three I'll handicap and blog about tomorrow. Today I will study the race charts of races contested on dirt at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfsream this meet and I'll watch video on any horses potentially in the Donn.

Leg work, not sexy, but winning is and its not a bad price to pay.

From last week at Fairgounds.



Race 8 and 9 went as I expected: Bouquet Booth won the Silverbulletday and the only surprise to me was how well bet down she was by the betting public, something I didn't expect. I reckon the 1% of American's who love horse racing have good betting sense too. Can we get some of the dumb money back somehow? I was not at all high on Seans Silverdancer who was the bettors third choice and finished last and expected a better showing by Aide. I did box my top four for $48 on a $2 Tri Ticket that returned $214 powered by Daisy Devine in place who I was bullish on and the betting public, not as much.

Race 9 was the Grade III Bradley Handicap on the turf and my chalk, Gran Estreno (Arg), the 8 YO, didn't disappoint. Dubious Miss getting up for Place was the surprise for me in this one. $10 bucks worth of exactas were blown on that and I was alive in the Pick Three after 2 and up $156 net as well.



In the Lecompte, Wilkinson's rail skimming late move to the wire over Pants on Fire with just a few hops to go was the most impressive 3 YO action I've seen so far in 2011. I liked the guts Wilkinson and Gomez showed going into a tight hole and taking the wire by a neck. Pants on Fire should be watched closely coming back too. My chalk, Action Ready, was a distant Show. I boxed my top four (in a five horse race) and got lucky that Wilkinson as the bettors third choice was in and Justin Phillips, bet WAY to heavy and the chalk, was last. I lost the Pick Three but exited the three race sequence up $162.80.

The Turk is still struggling a bit, but leg work will help me break through. Have fun with the Sunshine Millions, I'll be back tomorrow with the Holy Bull and the Pick Three. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 31, 2009

The Turk had a very forgettable weekend of handicapping, with the Donn, the Holy Bull and the Santa Monica all giving him no joy. My fellow horse racing aficionado at amateurcapper.blogspot.com tells me quite correctly that the bias was too great to overcome at Gulfstream Park. While I don't disagree completely, I think that bias is relative to the horse, especially at 1 1/8 miles, and that a quality horse can overcome the bias. My mistake, especially in Holy Bull, was throwing the bias out completely.

The Holy Bull G3, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs



The Donn Handicap G1, Gulfstream Park. 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up.





Even when you're not correct you should try to learn/decipher/grasp/rationalize what happened, good and bad.

In the Holy Bull I discounted Saratoga Sinner, as much as I loved the name. The horse had worked very fast before its last race in early January. Leading up to the Holy Bull, the horse's work was dull. I'll be watching Saratoga Sinner, but I don't see how you pick this horse to win from the PP. I guess that's why I'm engaging in "loser talk". Steve Byk spoke highly of Reade Baker's Bear's Rocket, and the horse had worked good, but nothing breath-taking, plus the horse is mostly a synthetic runner. Mrs. Turk nailed this pick in full disclosure.

In the Donn, I was on the hunt for a horse that I thought would bring me good value with a legitimate chance. Anak Nakal went off at $11.50, the bettors 6th favorite choice. He had a great run line, "...was outrun...." Really? Did they have a team of monkeys on that? I was surprised how well Finallymadeit ran. Two races in two weeks. Break up the Yankees!

And in the Santa Monica, I picked Ventura, liked Jibbom, and thought Baronness Thatcher would make the top three. Baroness Thatcher was very strong to the top of the stretch and then dropped like a stone.

Back after it next weekend. If you ain't in it, how you gonna win it!

The Nomination is In: January 31, 2009

The Holy Bull, G3 at Gulfstream. 1 1/8 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



Interesting race to handicap. I see four real quality horses who should be solid graded stakes contenders, some mediocrity, and some quirky post positioning as well. It's hard not to like the expected chalk, Grade 3 winner West Side Bernie. He's been brought along slowly, but his work is sizzling and his speed is building each race out. Money will flow to him, and while a win bet isn't worth it, as a player in boxed exotics seems without question.

In the 9 and 11 post sandwiching West Side Bernie is Nowhere to Hide and Beethoven. Nowhere to Hide is similar to West Side Bernie, as he's at a new distance, but does he sizzle in works. Trainer Zito is 32% winner off last win starts. Garcia is up.

Beethoven, a Grade 2 winner, will have Borel up and will need a good trip from the far outside.

I can picture Danger to Society being there in the last few hops to the wire. Idol Maker needs to show me something and I'm not even sure I'm not ranking him too high as it is.

Little Turk's karate dojo (AKA Turk's Saturday handicapping safe harbor)was madness today for whatever reason. I have no real bet strategy right now except that I like the separation between what I see as the quality stakes contenders and the good allowance winners. With that type of separation I'm thinking exotic right now. As always, watch the board and judge your scorecard against value (unless you like to win Show money- Bless Mama Turk's heart).