The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Super High Five

"My Trip to Old Hilltop was A-OK"

The Turk Clan, and friends, had a good Black Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico.  Sister Turk got up close and personal in the Infield with a boy named Goo, while we kicked back at the 1/16 pole in the first row of the grandstand.

The day got off to a bit of rocky start, as downtown traffic got snarled up due to the President visiting (his handicapping must be done already).  We were able to finally trek the 7 miles to Pimlico and we found Lot 2, Haywood, only to find a LOT FULL sign.  No matter, a nice older fella, a Navy Vet, pulled the sign back and we settled into our seats.

My experience included a "Black Eyed Susan", a hideous concoction of Vodka and some other bitter tasting stuff and I was left with a mild buzz and a Preakness glass, the real prize.

I didn't do much handicapping for Friday's card, I wanted to just relax and make some small tote board value bets.  I will say that at least twice in the grandstand I almost saw violence erupt as the teller lines were moving at a snails pace and punters were starting to get really agitated with each other.  The whole feel of the racetrack and the staff was very old school, not particularly fan friendly, and in no way very inviting to new fans.  That said, the Nathan Hot Dog fellas were top shelf.

I'm alive in the Pimlico Special/Preakness Double.  Even that was an adventure, as the teller couldn't have been less interested in that bet and had to run it through twice because he wasn't listening very well to me.  I was happy to finally see Richard's Kid again in person, but really, why is the poor fella still running? He's not a claimer, 45 starts, 11 wins, and two plus million in earnings, enough already.

Do you really think I have any plans of trying to get a Super High Five Bet right with that crew?  I'll be placing that on my portable device and not sweating it.  I think we're looking at a several thousand dollar Super High Five (not 10's or 100's of thousands) and I've created a $168 bet that has a better chance than the PowerBall (which I have a $10 spot on with co-workers).  I think I'm going to just enjoy my day at the track and hope my one big bet hits.




Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

Little Turk and I, Grandstand, Pimlico 

Wire Players Kentucky Derby Derby Poll Volume 5 and Video Recap of Key Races

Revolutionary winning The Withers

Friends, we are getting to about that time: With 23 days and 20 hours to go until The Kentucky Derby, we know just about everything we need to know about the runners from their body of work racing, sans the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes combatants, and now it comes down to pedigree analysis, workout tabs and manic clocker reports, and idiot bald bloggers, specifically yours truly, ye' Ol Turk, to wax poetic about the runners and to try and make sense of twenty or less horses running farther than they have ever run before. I'm not sure it gets any better than this!

It's been a few years since I have enjoyed the Derby Trail as much as I have enjoyed this one.  We've lost a few good runners to injury: Violence looked so impressive winning the Futurity at Hollywood, and we lost Shanghai Bobby, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion, who in the new system was forced to run and his form exposed. I think overall we've seen parity, what some may call mediocrity, but not I.  Too often in our society we call things brilliant.  We are quick to label things as great.  We should be more frugal with the term or it becomes watered down.  Those stooges at ESPN that follow the ball sports label something as special or brilliant every day: its thier business to hype things, but at the same time they do that, they dilute the previous things they labeled the same. None of these runners are brilliant, special, or amazing yet.  As one Stephen Patrick Morrissey once said, "...you just haven't earned it yet, baby."

Win the Kentucky Derby, then I'll consider you elite.  Win the Preakness and you will win horse of the year.  Win the Triple Crown, I'll call you brilliant.  I'll label you magnificent.  You'll be the next horse on my wall of fame. 

All that said, Revolutionary has impressed me.  I like the way he has handled traffic and shown a killer instinct.  Oxbow and Goldencents have impressed me for thier guts. Verrazano and Orb have answered the bell when needed.  I like Normandy Invasion with the extra route of dirt in front of him.  As usual, I have no clue who will win the Kentucky Derby, but I am starting to see the race unfold, the pace, and I'm feelin' the Super High Five, my favorite bet just calling my name. 

The Turk is headed to The Preakness this year.  I'm bullish on the rest of the racing season and I'm looking forward to following these horses the rest of the year.

Let's get it on!  I present to you the latest WirePlayers.com Derby Dozen Poll.  Thanks to Steve and the gang, it's a real pleasure working with this group. 




Santa Anita Derby: Goldencents



Wood Memorial: Verrazano



Louisiana Derby: Revolutionary



UAE Derby: Lines of Battle



Florida Derby: Orb



Sunland Derby: Governor Charlie



Spiral Stakes: Black Onyx



Rebel Stakes: Will Take Charge

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and The San Felipe

The Kentucky Derby Point Race should take on some interesting dynamics today, as several presumptive favorites take the dirt in what should be their penultimate prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Fifty points for winning and 20 points for Place makes this must see TV.


There are many ways to the Kentucky Derby: The Tampa Bay Derby is the path that Street Sense took to roses while at Santa Anita, Fusaichi Pegasus used the San Felipe as a springboard to achieve the same result. Winners of the San Felipe read like a Who's Who of The Turk's favorites over the past decade or so: Point Given, Medaglia d'Oro, Pioneerof the Nile, Sidney's Candy, Premier Pegasus and Creative Cause. That's some list!

Let's get it on!



There is plenty of interesting pace factors going on within The Tampa Bay Derby; I'm favoring a closer, Dynamic Sky to charge past Verrazano, who should be coming off the pace himself. Who is leading at the top of the stretch, I dunno. I'd like Falling Sky in that role, but I'm not sure after breaking from the nine slot.

Dynamic Sky doesn't seem like a Kentucky Derby winner in the least; Ontario bred, Mark Casse trained, he seems more like a really solid Woodbine runner than a dirt monster. I can't ignore the Sam Davis at the same distance at this track and I'm looking for more of the same, hopefully better.



Verrazano looks and seems the part; I just prefer to see them do it before I'm ready to anoint them, something Pletcher's runners seem to have happen to them.

Honorable Dillon has four races, four improving Beyers, good work, but needs to really show something as he stretches out 2.5 panels of distance. He seems comfortable stalking at shorter distance, not sure how Lanerie will play it for Trainer Kenneally.

Purple Egg is training exceptionally well, but like Honorable Dillon, is making the jump to route.

I'm looking for value in the Top Four, expecting the two classiest runners to take the top spots. That seems to be my theme here as well as the San Felipe.

The San Felipe's field isn't anywhere near as deep as the Tampa Bay Derby. Goldencents and Flashback should strike the top of the stretch together and take a hard run at each other. I am a huge Goldencents fan already, I think the horse is gutty, but Flashback seems the more talented I think he wins today.

I'm looking for Omega Star and Tiz a Minister to clean up what's left. The gelding son of Candy Ride, Omega Star seems to have some race potential and a step forward here would really keen my future interest. Tiz a Minister should have plenty of speed to target as he makes a deep close. Carving needs to show something today for Baffert's barn.

Have fun with today's races.

Turk Out!

Kentucky Derby Point Race Standings

Like it or not, the 20 spots in the starting gate for the 139th Kentucky Derby will not be based on graded stakes earnings as it has since 1986, but instead points earned in 36 races designated by a completely unbiased (cough) Churchill Downs Incorporated.

I'm on record as liking the concept; I like the idea of a roadmap towards the starting gate. I'm content with watching it happen this year and I think that some really interesting tweaks can be added to the system over the next several years if the men in grey flannel suits can get a bit outside the box. Right off the bat, one of my beefs has been a 2 YO wins a $1.0 Million dollar pot in one of racino races or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the super genius trainers start to conjure up how little they can start their charge before the first Saturday in May. The next tweaks should reward the runners who take part in the most prep races with a weighted ball advantage at the starting gate draw.

Anyhow, before tomorrow's Smarty Jones we are 12 races into the chase, with 7 left in the Prep Season before we reach the more lucrative Championship Series.

It's realistic that a horse will win the Prep Season with as few as 34 points. The first leg of the Championship Series awards 50 points for a win and 20 for Place, which makes the value of the Prep Season fairly poor. The second leg of the Championship Series is worth 100 Points for the win and only 40 points for Place, so you could argue that current prep leaders Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents need only win one more race and they are cemented. I think some tweaks to the number of points per race may be justified as well.

We'll keep making suggestions and then summarize them after the Kentucky Derby is run.






My beloved Buffalo Sabres just kicked the snot out of the Flyers. All is right in the world again. Have fun race fans, Turk Out!

By the way, I have skipped all coverage of the Eclipse Awards on purpose: I think these sort of popularity contests are a joke and I'd rather see the awards based on points just like this. How Frankel can't be Horse of the Year, I'm still waiting for a sane answer on that. Joke, not to be taken seriously.

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Sham Stakes (10 Point Derby Prep) at Santa Anita

Happy New Year from the Turk and his little buddy, the aptly named Little Turk.

New Year's always brings to me renewed purpose. As it relates to horse racing, I wipe away what I thought was a ho-hum race season and hope for better this year. This is always a time of discovery for me as well: I pay almost no attention to 2 YO racing and I like being introduced to the 400 or so horses that will be eventually nominated for the Triple Crown Races. The Turk however doesn't live under a rock and I know a few of the names, like the Delta Jackpot winner Goldencents running today in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, but I really know nothing about this group of horses at all. Honestly, I think it helps me, as I don't really care what these horses did late summer and fall of 2012, I care about how they grew and where they are now in 2013. I used to get all caught up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and some of the other 2 YO races, and while stirring, that form doesn't always translate into the next season. It's a sort of visual bias I can live without.

I'm torn on how to feel about the new point system instituted to determine the 20 slots available in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, which is 119 days away. On one hand I think it makes more sense to add weight and perspective to the road that Triple Crown nominees take, but then again, humans created it, and humans have flaws like picking certain races that are owned by certain racing conglomerates. So a six horse Grade 3 Sham field today gets 10 points, while a Grade 2 race with 8 horses at Aqueduct gets nothing. I don't know why they could not have had more races with points associated. This is considered the "Prep" season with races accounting for 10 points for wins. Races jump to 50 and 100 points in the next legs and while I think 150 would safely get you into the gate, I think the weighting of these prep races will pick up significant value for the fifteen through twenty horse and injustice will be felt at some point. I won't condemn the system yet and it's not like the graded stakes earnings system didn't need a few tweaks, I'm just thinking that instead of tweaking they sledge hammered it.

Anyhow, let's get after the Sham Stakes and see what we have going on. Speaking of Sham, forever linked to Secretariat, he's pictured above to the right of Big Red.



I'm betting against Goldencents for no particular reason. I like his 6f work at Santa Anita an awful lot and he did run a strong Champagne as well as the Delta Jackpot. At some point I think his class gets the better of him, but when, I dunno.

I'm putting Baffert's two entries one and two, with Den's Legacy over Manando. Den's Legacy closed well in the Futurity in December and has a smokin' :46 2/5ths bullet just before the new year. Gomez is up, a 24% at Great Race Place . Manando, with Garcia up, went :46 and 1/5th a week earlier and comes in off a dominant MSW 45K race at Hollywood. Baffert and Garcia clip along at 26% together at Santa Anita.

I like Dirty Swagg too, the sort of horse like Love Theway You Are that Trainer Cho does well with.

I must be getting old as an Any Given Saturday colt, Dry Summer enters the gate. No idea what to expect out of him on a first race back since Breeders' Cup Saturday, a layoff Trainer Mullins wins 24% of the time. He's switching surface as well back to dirt, something he didn't do well on at Santa Anita in late September.

Welcome back race fans. The Turk feels rejuvenated, time to make a stack of bills.

Have fun, Turk Out!