The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and Grade 1 Triple Bend at Hollywood Park

Who doesn't love a rematch? That's Smiling Tiger, with Rosario up, taking last year's Hollywood Park Triple Bend by 2 plus lengths over Camp Victory, these two, with The Factor tossed in, should make for a speedy seven panels in today's edition.

Is California racing in a bad state of affairs? It may not be at its peak of health, but cards like today's that include the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, with Little Mike, Mr. Commons, Jeranimo, and Turk favorite, Liberian Freighter, make me forget the troubles our sport faces, at least for one day.

The Turk's going to have to wax poetic in my second blog post of the day. I'll be returning for a Pick 3 of Iowa's Festival of Horse Racing, including the Grade 3 Cornhusker, Iowa Oaks and Derby. Favorites struggled last night at Prairie Meadows and we're coming for bear later. For now, Little Turk goes for soccer glory in the Fort Niagara Soccer Tournament and I'm off soon.

I've been really enjoying this meet at Hollywood. I think the fake stuff plays fair, and while I love the atmosphere of Del Mar, I hate that fake surface and will miss Inglewood in a few weeks.

Let's get after it!



I'll be building something out of this following these base handicaps.

More later, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: Graded Stakes Grab Bag: 5 Races, 3 Tracks and 1 Fat Cigar on Standby

Life is full of complications, dichotomies, and at times, confusion. One day you wake up and you're told that red wine is bad for you, the next day it's good for you. More protein, less fat, more fat, eat carbohydrates, don't eat carbohydrates, reading in the dark is bad, no it's OK, to this, not that, blah blah blah. Our poor society seems to be stuck developmentally as well. Why can't we tear eyes away from the trial of a sad figure who failed her child on so many levels? Why do we spend taxpayer money building overpriced stadiums for professional sports that print dollars, only to have these billionaires lock out the millionaires and deny the minimum wage employees their own incomes? Why do we spend more than any sane country should on education only to not see tangible results? The Turk is troubled by the world, and I have no answers for any of the questions that leave me thinking, but what I do have is a game I turn to, a collection athletes that never go on strike, that want nothing more than to please and be cared for. A game that allows me to analyze, compare, wager if I choose. A game that is far from perfect but does offer up slices of heaven.

If you're a horseplayer you are most likely a hedonist at heart. I'm not talking about scantily clad folks lounging around a poolside bar in the Caribbean thinking about who next to introduce themselves too (although there is nothing wrong with that!) I'm talking a more pure pleasure seeker, one who looks at the horses, sees beauty, looks at the game and sees opportunity. Risk and Reward: I handicap, I bet, I win, I lose, but at the end of the day I have calmness and the belief that of all that is bad in the world, I still have the horses, I still have my family, and I still have my health, not in that particular order.

I have a Romeo Y Julieta waiting for me today no matter how I handicap. Inside my humidor, amongst the 100 or so sticks of pleasure is a special cigar, an aging piece of old Havana. I hold it in reserve for a magical day at the windows, without any definition of what a magical day would mean. I can't predict when that day will come, and I'm not even sure how to predict the possibility of its arrival, but I keep playing the races, and I win my share, and I know it isn't far away...like the rapture (maybe I'm off by a few months too?.

Anyhow, I don't often to burden my readers with the ramblings of a middle aged handicapper but I guess today was just one of those days. I'm feeling a bit blue because I missed an opportunity to see old friends last night as duty called. As therapy I've assembled a series of races, like I would if i was marketing the sport to grow the game not just the objectives of certain people, organizations or track conglomerates. If I were the czar I would bundle 2 hours each Saturday night of graded stakes action from multiple tracks and go bam...bam...bam...across the TV screen until the two hours was up, and I'd do it again the following week. I would stop trotting C list celebrities out on the screen and I would instead enlist the best communicators of the game we have and let them sell it. I liked my idea last week too: I'd target sports columnists at all the major papers and start bringing them to the track, because the track sells itself. Slowly but surely these folks, either on the radio, or in the opinion pieces, will start to talk horse racing.

You poor folks, let's just get after it!

Five Races, 3 Tracks, all Graded Stakes over 172 Minutes stating at 5:16 ET




I'm not sure where I come out today. While The Ol' Turk is mostly a Pick Four player, sometimes I just want to be fan and watch the races without much concern over the tote board and my ADW account. I've built handicaps I can play and have some fun with, and I'll most likely go no deeper than exactas an tri's, but we'll see. I started at Belmont, jumped to Monmouth and ended at Hollywood, with a little break near the last race to char grill some good eats.

The Dwyer at Belmont leads us off at 5:16. 7 horses, 1 turn for this grade 2 event with the 3 year olds. Adios Charlie will attract heavy coin, perhaps serious show pool money, but I'm looking for Tech Fall to take a step forward. A quick peek at the morning lines after I handicapped showed he was 10-1. I'll be happy with anything >6-1. Anthony Dutrow's runner makes only his 5th start, with R. Dominguez up for the first time. The son of Birdstone has steadily improved and is working in the morning very well. He'll come just off the pace. A pace set by who? Harlan's Hello will press the pace before fading, and Dominus should be there as well, but I would expect Adios Charlie and Tech Fall to duel in the stretch, with perhaps a bid by an Angel Pena trained Cool Blue Red Hot or Dick Dutrow's Rocking Out. Adios Charlie has been training very nice at Saratoga but Trainer Hough only wins 7% of his 31-60 day layoffs. We'll be expecting him to run good at the Spa.

The Suburban is next up, sans Haynesfield this year, the race that made him a real player. It's a solid six horse field, but its still six horses that would be so much better with 8 or 9. I like Rodman to win. I think he is the pick but just behind him are some real quality runners which makes this quite interesting. Colizeo will need a good trip and look for a setup to run against. Convocation has had mixed results since placing in this race last year. Hymn Book came off the grass last time out and ran good over a sealed big sandy but I'd put him behind Icabad Crane and Flat Out. This is gambling folks, I have no idea how this one will unfold.

Monmouth offers up one the the great Grade I turf events of the year, the United Nations. If you're a fan of the grass, you'll love this 1 3/8 classic. My chalk is Bourbon Bay; 3 of 4 in the money this year and 5 of 5 in the money in 2010, as well as 13 of 17 in the money on grass. Alan Garcia is up, 16% winner, hmmmm. He ships in from the left coast where he has trained steady for Trainer Drysdale. Sucker for the name too.

It's a coin toss with Chinchon and Stacelita, two Euros that can really stay. Stacelita, 5 YO mare, with Joe Bravo up, has $1.5 MM in earnings in 14 starts with 8 wins while Chinchon, the 6 YO horse has $1.9MM in 23 tries with 5 wins.

Teaks North and Sleepless Knight, the Breen trained George and Lori Hall runner, seem to be logical Show and Exotic contenders, with Eldaafer somewhere in the exotic mix possibly, while everyone else is getting tossed for better or worse. Teaks North may be peaking and is 3 of 3 over Monmouth turf. He seems to represent some real value. Watch the tote board!

The grilled will get started around this time but while it's heating up I jump to Hollywood about 1/2 hour later for the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. I may be a bit giddy from my earlier blog ranting but I'm backing Liberian Freighter over most likely higher ranking and superior animals, Caracortado and Courageous Cat. Martin Garcia is up and I expect the 5 time Hollywood Turf winner will bounce back from his last 1 mile effort in the Grade 2 American.

Courageous Cat comes in off a huge last race winning Grade 3 effort on good turf at Belmont. The Mott trainer tries Hollywood for the first time. Caracortado needs no introduction but does need a win, as he's had some dull efforts lately. Victor's Cry makes his first try back after going to Dubai but once this last year on long odds. Blue Chagall is background noise.

With a 90 minute break to eat I'll end with the Grade I Triple Bend Handicap. I'm intrigued byu a class challenged Color of Courage, a 4 YO gelding who has 2 wins at HOL on the fake dirt and two straight 100 + Beyers in the process. Mike Smith left him for Amazombie, as he would of course do, but don't discount.

Amazombie and Smiling Tiger are the two heavy hitters here, with M One Rifle in the next pack back. Camp Victory might not be buying that conventional thinking and with Talamo up, the Forest Camp claimer may be ready to turn the tables.

So there you have it, good stuff all the way around. I don't think weather will be a concern today, but check the track conditions, scratches and changes and the tote board for value. Do your own handicapping and don't let morning lines, TV talking heads or bald handicappers like me influence your thinking in any way.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day December 26, 2010; The Santa Anita Pick Three and the Malibu Grade I

This Turk loves this time of the year; from Thanksgiving until New Years Day I just feel at peace with the world, in tune with my friends and family, and renewed to start the grind of another year. Life's grind does get me down, as this Turk works his arse off, and just before Christmas I invoked the time honored tradition of retail therapy and I bought myself a Mac Mini.

I liked the idea of a small computer attached to my audio-visual gear for a long time, a perfect place for streaming and storing. The lure of a full sized HDMI plug that would connect right into my TV was too much to pass up. With that, I took my HRTV Subscription and I had graduated from watching the races on my laptop to having it on the big screen with fantastic sound. I'm not a tech guy but I love when I add some modernity to my life and it just fits in with me and not the other way around.

This Turk could barely contain himself on Sunday when I settled in with the Santa Anita opening day Past Performances. I had the all Graded Stakes Pick Three targeted for handicapping, which I did, but I had two serious problems; the surfaces and the competition. The dirt track not only is brand new, but it was sealed and I had no idea what it would be like at show time. The turf Sir Beaufort I suspected would end up in the dirt, and then the real killer was my handicap, it was very very chalky. Sidney's Candy, Twirling Candy, Switch, was there really any doubt? Just a little, not much.

So what to do? Without much fanfare I dumped the Pick Three idea after seeing the scratches flow in and the turf races moved the main track. In response I spent my budgeted $24 on The Malibu Superfecta and I was locked in solid, dropping Noble's Promise to 5th and nailing the other four for a cool $445.70.

Santa Anita December 26, 2010; Race 6-7-8



The track was incredibly fast, and Trainer Baffert thought it was a full second fast. Regardless, Switch was very impressive and took Spectacular Bid's name down off the track record. Sidney's Candy continues to impress and is the perfect example of why you shouldn't just judge three year olds based solely on the Triple Crown races. Sidney's Candy also reminds us of why sound three year olds that get retired aren't getting a fair shake to become the best they can be.

I took my $24 and boxed my base handicap for the Malibu. I had Twirling Candy/Alcindor at the top and Alcindor had the lead at the 1/2 only to have to dig in and finish exotically. Noble's Promise, the bettors top choice, lacked a kick when a kick was required. Smiling Tiger continues to impress and Twirling Candy was very game. The sprinters are well represented heading into 2011.

The bet was only possible because of the handicap. I believe, and say here regularly, that if you do your homework and build your handicaps, you'll be prepared to be nimble when it's time to actually hand money over at the window. It takes discipline, but handicap the races in advance and not the 30 minutes in between races and you will add crispness to your betting and be a clear headed gambling fool like the hard core players that read the Turk.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 21, 2010: Opening Day at Hollywood Park- The Harry Henson Stakes

Returning readers of the Turk don't come here for cutting edge commentary or breaking news. There are several wonderful aggregate news sources such as the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Home Page where you can find that sort of writing. What you do get here is a middle aged man, referring to himself in the third person, who occasionally rants that the World is turning upside down. The idea of the horse racing world losing a beloved track, an institution like Hollywood Park in the name of some retail development turns my stomach and is a signal to this lone Turk crying out in the wilderness that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalyspe are about to ride. I intend to visit several times this meet for no other reason then to savor the place as it was and hope that what's planned to come never happens. I feel like how my distant Roman turk cousin must have felt in early September, 476 AD when the City was about to fall for the last time. Ok, I digress, but I hope it doesn't take a major track falling in Southern California to wake up the forces who oppose more mindless California development to stop this now. These idiots are giddy that they can rip down venerable Hollywood Park to put up more big box crap. Have you been to California in the last two years? Yeah, they need this! Same idiots that tell me I can't smoke my cigar in the city park.

The Turk took a mid week vacation day and had some time to handicap Opening Day at Hollywood Park. Let's get it on!

Race 7 Hollywood Park-Post Time 7:05 ET; The Harry Henson Stakes 60K; 6 furlongs on Turf for 3 YOs.



Always gather your information, like weather and track conditons and scratches/changes.

At first blush we have a collection of ten runners who collectively have 13 Turf starts and 2 wins and 1 show.

Handicapping without morning lines, I have Face and an Ace on top to win, owner of the only 2 turf wins in the field, and a last race win on turf at SA in late March. Trainer P. Gonzalez has some real WOW stats: 26% turf wins on 31 starts, 29% sprint wins, and his combination with Jock R. Bejarano is productive with 38% wins on a slim 8 starts.

The world's most interesting man, Trainer Julio Canani saddles Big Man has a Sign . Dropping back in distance from 1 1/16 on poly in March and training sharply. Canani has some very impressive stats as well; 30% sprint wins, 25% 1st Turf, 22% Turf. Teamed with M. Pedroza they win 33% of the timw on 48 starts.

Smiling Tiger seemed like a tiger when he was running Show to Make Music for Me and Looking at Lucky in Grade 1 and Grade II events late last summer. Training strongly since early March, I think he'll need a race or two to get his hoofs under him.

It's way too early to have a bet strategy. I'll be sitting around an airport in Boston by the time this goes to Post so if I have time on my hands I'll string a Superfecta together using a matrix of my base handicap. Watch the tote and look for some value if it presents itself.

Have Fun, Save Hollywood Park, Go Sabres, Turk Out!