Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 3, 2009

The Turk has a few axioms he lives by as a handicappper. Most of these handicapping rules I stole from other people, men like Brad Free and Andrew Beyer, but that's neither here nor there and luckily personal integrity isn't mandatory to bet the ponies.

The most important thing we do when picking horse races is identifying what horses have a chance to win and which ones don't. I love to state the obvious. Picking potential winners out of a field of twenty or less is where it all begins. The sexy handicapping thing is to talk about exotic plays with matrix charts and wheels. I'll save sexy for other people and I'll stick with simply trying to identify who I think will win, who I think has a chance to win, and who doesn't have a chance in a one horse match race.

In the races I handicapped yesterday, I identified three of the top four horses in each race. Of course I'd prefer four for four, and I strive for that type of perfection, but it is what it is. What we do with the information of who may win is where sexy comes into play. Turk won't be bringing sexy back anytime soon.

In Race 4 at GP, The Spectacular Bid, a 6f shindig on dirt for 3 YOs.



Notonthesamepage had been beaten soundly by some of the best 2 YO's in fall racing, taking on Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, Munnings, Square Eddie and Pioneer of the Nile. He drilled 4f and 5f works since early December and the reduction in distance powered him to an impressive win by 8 1/4 lengths. I missed with Jazzandthemagician, and I never saw Bee Cee Cee, nor did the bettors.

In Race 8 at Aqueduct, The Count Fleet, 1 mile and 70 Yards on NYS dirt, the result was not surprising to anyone. Haynesfield winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a slim 5 horse field propels himself squarely onto my Derby watch. I was disappointed with Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq, and hopefully they will be on a track again within 4-5 weeks.



And at Santa Anita Park, The Great Race Place, Race 8, The Monrovia Handicap G3, About 6 1/2f on the downhill Turf Course, for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.


Jibboom was my only A plus horse, my chalk, going into the race. I liked his works of 4f and 5f going into the race. I was happy with the odds up on the board and cashed $5.40 on the win. I liked Society Hostess, but she never really fired. I never saw Christina's Heat and I had her lumped in as a B minus, top 8 horse. Good for her. Looking at her in hindsight, she's a steady girl, and she gave her usual steady effort yesterday. I'm going to watch her and see where she's entered next.

It was a fun first weekend of the new year.

Breeder's Cup 2008 Filly and Mare Sprint Preview

The Turk plucked down some winnings and purchased the PP's for the Breeder's Cup. I'm a pig in mud, a rooster in the hen house, a cube dweller with his TPS report. Yes, I'm happy.

I'm going to break off the Heavy Hitter previews and move right to the individual races and try to look at the contenders in each race from a trip handicapping perspective right now. As the entrys become final and the post positions set, I'll return to this race and make my selections, but for now, the Turk approaches this with as open a mind and he can muster.

Filly and Mare Sprint. Race 3 October 24, 2008. F&M 3 yo and up. 7f on Santa Anita faux-dirt.

Zaftig and Indian Blessing. The Acorn, G1. June 7, 2008 at BEL. 1 Mile. Indian Blessing has raced on time one last year's version of faux dirt at Santa Anita. They have met one time and Zaftig shocked the Champion Baffert trained Filly. Gomez was shuffled off of Indian Blessing and she's had two jocks since then and her Beyer's have have been a steady 110. Zaftig, with her effort in the Acorn, owns the race's best lifetime Beyer. She hasn't raced since beating Indian Blessing.



Indian Blessing wins the Test Stakes at Saratoga August 2, 2008. 7f G1.



Ventura posting a 104 Beyer in a losing effort in the Woodbine Mile, September 7, 2008. Lots of turf and two synthetic wins in her resume.



Dearest Trickski winning the G3 Rancho Bernardo 6 1/2 f on Delmar faux dirt on August 24, 2008. A game Tiz Elemental and La Tee will also be meeting again, as well as Magnificience who finished 5th this day. This contigent of Turf and Synthetic Runners have the potential for some attractive odds, and all are capable of a solid 100 Beyer on the sythetic. Will that be the fig to beat? Inquiring Turks want to know.



A Turk watcher in 2007, Dream Rush hasn't fired in 2008. This video is Dream Rush at Saratoga tarining track on October 10, 2008 where she posted a bullet breeze of 4f in 47 and 2 fifths (1/25).



I don't know much about Indyanne. Robby Albarado was up in a G3 with a 101 Beyer. This video is from July 12, 2008 at Calder, another G3 at 6f. She has two synthetic wins in her career, and while she's making a huge jump in class, what I'm seeing is interesting.



Intangaroo winning the G1 Ballerina Stakes, 7f on August 24, 2008 at Saratoga. Finishing second was another F&M Sprint entrant, Miraculous Miss.



Jazzy (ARG), Lady Sprinter, Psalm (IRE)have PP's that I don't have my Turk hands around yet. We'll have to work at them.

It's going to be a fun week!