The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Northern Dancer and Woodbine Mile

Glenville Gardens

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Today the Little Turk is running in a cross country race, so this will be an abbreviated look at a fine Woodbine card.

I'm sensing from Twitter that others like myself are going through Kentucky Downs withdrawal this weekend.  I thoroughly loved those six races days as a race fan and as a bettor.  I thought the track played fairly, the fields were deep and interesting, and I love the quirkiness  of the product that is presented, at least through the Twinspires TV feed that I watch.  The track announcers and the rest of the on air commentary is good, not intrusive, and I somehow survived without Trakus or better camera angles.  Of course I'd like to see continued improvements, but a few more race dates would be at the top of my wish list.  Good luck with the politics team Kentucky Downs!

I'm focused on turf running over the past month.  I love the late turn of foot and the big fields that contest these contests.  It brings a bit of special to things when the Euros invade, even if its tier 2 Euro.  I'll be playing more vertically then horizontally today, mostly because of the circumstances of my day and my time constraints.  I do dig the NYRA/Woodbine mixed Pick 5 at the Woodbine entry level price of $0.20 and while you're reading about the bet, read Buffalo News Turf Writer Gene Keshner's take on the days events.   I was listening to HRN this morning and they seem to think these Woodbine turf races are chalky.  I'll get to it, but let's peel back the combatants and I think there may be some interesting value that pops, like Glenville Gardens pictured above.  The gelded 5 YO Street Cry was very game in the Grade 2 Play King, a race he won a year previously at Woodbine.  Let's not sleep on a Street Cry that has won 4 times at the distance and 6 times over this track, with local jock and trainer combo.

Let's Get after it!



I don't anyone beating Hawkbill in the Northern Dancer.  On Lasik, this 4 YO Kitten's Joy has won five of his last 12 and is 5 of 6 in the money at this marathon distance. Has the class and the tactical speed. I'm only tossing two and I could have made a case for multiple scenarios below Hawkbill but I think Noble Thought and Mesi (Ger) will compete for Place and Show with Pumpkin Rumble an interesting candidate for a minor prize. Noble Thought was 10-1 and ran a game Place in the Grade 2 1 1/2 Mile Sky Classic here at Woodbine in late August. 

I'm feeling contrarian in the Woodbine Mile.  I like World Approval but others to like as well and I'm not sure how much I like him on firm turf.  This would be Glenville Gardens biggest score but I think Trainer Attard has the 5 YO peaking.  Deauville is my tepid chalk and a case for 3 YO Lancaster Bomber can be made:This classy War Front was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and has run a demanding campaign from the UAE to the UK.  Hope we see him at 4. My Show/Exotic Group and my Win/Place Groupings could easily flip flop which makes this field very interesting as a gambler and fan. Conquest Panthera and Tower of Texas could surprise and the classy Mondialiste has nothing to prove.

More on this one past race, I'm off to see Little Turk run.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Grade 1 Pick 3 (race 9-10-11) at Belmont Park

Spectacular, Spectacular!  Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year.  We specialize in old school handicapping based on a derivative of the style Tom Ainsile, Brad Free and Steve Davidowitz.  Old School: Class, Pace, Conditions, Tactical Speed.

I love the big days.  I get excited at seeing the best in the sport race on the same day, and in our declining sport, these days are fewer and fewer and less and less spectacular.  This isn't the blog that analyzes ways to improve the sport.  If you unfortunately wandered into this blog all you can expect is no BS, no bravado, free opinions that will reward you  the opportunity to turn big piles of cash into slightly smaller piles of cash more often then not.  That's the game, its stacked mostly against players.  Be diligent, be smart, bet and handicap with consistency and with time, skill and luck, you'll scratch out a break even or positive ROI, return on investment.  It's very cool if you just like to drop a few bets every year with friends.  In that case, ignore me, and my picks are in the chart below.  If you're a horse player more than a few times a year, work at your craft, study the losses as much as you study the wins, bet responsibly and have fun.

The Belmont isn't a race I particularly like to handicap, with it's extra quarter mile and long straight, it's been a bit of a graveyard for me.  When I stepped back after handicapping, I thought I'd share my all Grade 1 Pick 3 (Race 9-10-11) with you instead of trying to read the tea leaves on a race 11 exotic.

Multi Race betting is a great way to think about the card horizontally , with less of a focus on single race vertical slotting.  As an exotic player, I can typically roll through a card pretty quickly if I'm just identifying exacta possibilities, and that's how I approach multi race horizontal bets, just as a series of exacta's.  How many you cover, taking a strong view and singling,  and how much value you can find, is always the key.

Let's get after this!

Race 9-10-11;  First Post 4:41 ET






In Race 9 we have the Grade 1 Met Mile.  I'm still not sure I'm happy the race moved from Memorial Day, but again, this isn't the sort of blog that has much credibility with such topics, you can find all sorts of haughty, elitist opinions if you try harder.

I have 5 horses in my Exacta possibles, with two covers for the Pick 3.  I don't think I'm really offering value as I suspect both Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit will both be bet hard.  Rally Cry, a Pletcher/Velazquez Up  combo, is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and BEL and the 4 YO Uncle Mo colt will be 3rd or 4th on the Tote Board.  Economic Model/7 goes Blinkers off, something Trainer Chad Brown has mixed sucess with at 17%, but its his second effort off a long layoff and Brown is 28% on that angle and he's a hot 30% on dirt.  Mark Casse's Awesome Slew will also be 4-6 on the tote board and has a fantastic late burst, on display in his last two races at 7f.

In Race 10, we have one of the premier turf races of the year, The G1 Manhattan. I also am covering horses here that should be bet heavily.  Beach Patrol, winner of G1 Secretariat on Arlington Million Day 2016, is a front runner less of a late turn of footer and I typically prefer the latter to the former over a route of grass.  Time Test (GB) has monster numbers and Chad Brown's Juddmonte invader may be setting up for a big summer.  This may be the race he steps forward and joins his barn's plans.  Leparoux's choice of mounts, World Approval, a beauty of a 5 YO Northern Afleet, must be respected.  Three horses I think represent opportunity and value: Potemkin (Ger), on Lasix for first time, and Divisidero, both have great late moves.  I'm not covering and may regret it, Sadler's Joy from the 9 spot.

In Race 11, The G1 Belmont Stakes, The Turk looks at Tapwrit and can't help but think, why not? He came late in the Kentucky Derby, Late in the Blue Grass, Late in Tampa Bay Derby and SF Davis.  He'll have a long straight and targets to aim for.  Pletcher's Graded Stakes over past year down to 17%.  Looking at Lee and Irish War Cry are obvious choices but not very wiseguy of me.  Solid is still solid, don't buy into that feeling you have have to be wiseguy-ish.  This is the sort of race where there are a lot of similar runners so don't be shocked by the winner, no matter what the price.

So what to do?  Have fun with it.  Find some value on the toteboard with what I suggested here or with your own handicapping.  I'm not sure what I'll do:  I may try to single one of these races  and cover a few more Belmont Stakes runners.  I'll pay a few exactas working off my base handicap and the toteboard, not getting sentimental about the names or the human connections but thinking of value propositions only.  I'd rather gamble $20 with a 10% chance of winning >$100 then gamble $36 with a 45% chance of winning $50.  The numbers may be skewed but you get the idea.

Turk out!