The Nomination Is In: The Belmont Stakes G1

American Pharoah: Photo by Mike Sekulic

Hello Friends and Welcome to the Final Triple Crown Edition of 2015.

While I believe in general we use words, adjectives, too liberally when describing the brilliance of horses, winning the first two legs of the Crown earns you respect, winning all three puts you in the Hall of Fame, remembered forever.

As we are an older fan base, for better or worse, most of us, including me,  have fond memories of Seattle Slew and Affirmed's Triple Crown years.  They were larger than life, and it seemed like the Country stopped for a few minutes to watch the race, and then celebrated the achievement like you would today a great Superbowl.  It was an era before the idea of a Hollywood Race Track being torn down could even be imagined and when Hialeah was treasured as the Saratoga of the South.  Today's race will be held in a facility that is not maintained properly and maybe 25% fewer people will be in attendance than would like too because its just not safe to have 130,000 in the building anymore.

I could lament these things about the sport, but the Old Turk isn't a "lamenter" nor do I pretend to have the answers to what ails our sport.  I'll leave that for real journalists and I'll continue to be the hack handicapper that I am.

Let's get it on!

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	American Pharoah/5	A+++
Place	Frosted/6	A---
Show	Materiality/8	B+
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	B
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	B-
	Tale of Verve/2	C
	Keen Ice/7	C
	Frammento/4	C-
	Belmont Park Race 11: Post Time 6:50 ET	The Belmont Stakes G1
	1 1/2 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The field isn't that impressive and a bit small for this handicapper's liking.  On paper and on Big Sandy, American Pharoah has more class and appears poised to achieve true greatness.  As a horse racing fan, that's wonderful and everything, but I'm trying to make ROI here on my betting capital. What do I need?  With American Pharoah going into the gate at 3-5 or even worse, I'd like to see him valiantly fight, rally, and be passed by two longer prices at the wire.  

	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Boxed Trifecta: 5-1-6-8-1-3= $120 $0.50 Version=$30
	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Exacta Box: 5-6-8-1-3=$40
$2 Exacta Box: 6-8-1-3 OVER 5-6-8-1-3-2-7=$48
$2 Exacta Box 6-8-1-3 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-8= $40

I'm pegging American Pharoah winning at 40% and 70% in Win or Place.  

One approach could be to just single American Pharoah and then take the rest of the non-tossed field and fill in Exacta/Tri and Super bets.  A 5 with 1-3-6-8 Over 1-3-6-8 would cost $24.  I really don't see the point.

I think it may be worth a $40 flyer on my NON American Pharoah exacta bet:  6-8-1-3 OVER 6-8-1-3-7-8 for $40 Bucks or you could toss American Pharoah into the Place Spot and spend $48.

Tossing American Pharoah again out of the top two, you could go 6-8-1-3 and then in Place add in Keen Ice and Tale of Verve, leaving only Belmont kill joy, Nick Zito's Frammento, uncovered.  

Have some fun with it and Good Luck to American Pharoah and all of his connections.

Turk Out!

Wire Players Dirty Derby Dozen Volume 5

WTF moments happen to all of us. I would think Team Mo last weekend had a serious WTF moment watching the 2 year old champion fade badly to Show in the Wood Memorial. How could they not see it coming?

We humans are often quick to label things "the next". I've read quotes comparing Uncle Mo to Seattle Slew. Why does he need to be anything other than Uncle Mo? Forget the horse flesh, Seattle Slew's conditioner prepared that horse differently, even on a compact prep schedule. Take a gander at a nice piece of writing at The Knight Sky and then think about Mo's extended spring break: You can be the best athlete in the world but if you aren't properly trained and placed at the top of your form cycle, you won't be successful. Is any of this new? There is no doubt Uncle Mo is talented, but what possessed the Kentucky Derby winning trainer to take such a conservative route? He is sound were told, why treat him like he has Big Brown's hooves?

Anyway, I'm a handicapper, not a trainer, so I'm not going to ramble on any further on this. I'm not sure what Mr. Pletcher will do to sharpen the colt. Regardless, this internet hack has contributed his darts at the dartboard, or I should say, my studied and considered choices for the top 12 Kentucky Derby contenders for this edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen.

I remember vividly that the late Michael Hutchence of INXS didn't like to be photographed in promotional events without his bandmates because it was about the band and not the individual. While the Ol' Turk is neither as handsome or talented as Michael, he always respected that feeling and I partially regret posting my own pathetic Derby Dozen choices up separate from my esteemed group, but I think it illustrates how varied our opinions currently are. I freely admit how apathetic I feel towards this years Triple Crown trail. I loved Premier Pegasus, and I dig The Factor, and Santiva interests me, and when I saw Uncle Mo at the Breeders' Cup I thought I'd be putting another Triple Crown winner picture up on the wall, but who knows.

Anyhow, here you go!