The Nomination Is In: The Dowager G3 over Turf at Keeneland

Photo by: Keeneland

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

I've wanted to play Keeneland for the past few weeks but work was busy, I was traveling quite a bit, and I just ran out of time.  With few graded stakes left in the meet, I think Sunday's Dowager is my last opportunity for 2018.

I don't play Keeneland very much.  Like, Del Mar, I gave up on the track during the fake dirt years.  The 19.5% takeout on Exactas (NYRA currently 18.5%, Arlington on Million Day 20.5%) is high but that's not a cross I carry around like many social media whales, my investing volumes are too low to get hung up on that.  I think I just have other options usually and it's not a track that I'm quick to play.  That said, I love the grounds, the tradition and the turf course especially.

I'm taking a bit of a handicapper's holiday over past few weeks as I gear up for Breeders' Cup Weekend.  I did however blog, and win, The Laurel Park Maryland Million Classic Exacta, providing a $1 dollar bet for $24 that returned $82.10.  Low risk, good reward.

Anyway, lets get after this 1 1/2 mile Turf affair at Keeneland.  Expect cold but dry conditions.  The turf was yielding today but you can find the latest here, part of Keeneland's player friendly website.  Laurel Park: You need to step up your web services!




I like the betting potential of this race that is lacking serious chalk.  I identified Daring Duchess and Savannah Belle as my top two. 

Daring Duchess is 6 of 9 in the money at this distance and 13 of 26 in the money over grass.  The 6 YO mare from Arch is winless in 5 KEE starts with only 1 Place to show for those trips.  Added 6 pounds from last time out.  A flat runner, I'll expect her on or near the pace the whole way.  If the turf is Yielding or Soft I'll like her less although she had a nice outing over good turf at this distance two races back.

4 YO Savannah Belle is trained by Brian Lynch, a 22% stakes winner but also only 1 win in 7 starts at KEE over past rolling year.  295 Tomlinson at the distance with an asterisk for sample size, she does have a Place at this distance, making her the only other to hit the board at this distance besides Daring Duchess.  Late runner. 

Vexatious was winless in six starts as a 3 YO last year and has only 2  wins in 12 starts lifetime.  1  win in 4 turf starts and last time out her running line was "...passed tiring foes" as she finished 6 1/4 lengths back at today's distance. A winner at 1 3/8 miles at Del Mar in August in a minor stake.  7 dirt starts.  Classy and ready for a breakout possibly.  Late runner.

Amboseli hasn't done much lately.  The 6 YO has only 3 Show finishes to show for her last 10 starts over past two seasons.  13 of 22 in the money lifetime with 8 Shows in 22 starts.  Late runner.

Res Ipsa is a 5 YO English Channel with a great closing turn of foot.  Winless in 6 starts in 2018, 12 of 21 lifetime in the money over grass.  First time at the distance but ran well at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16 miles.  Last win past 1 mile?  October 2017 at KEE in a $70K Alw at 1 1/16.

My three wildcards are:

 English Affair who is coupled to Trainer Arnold and Pilot B. Hernandez, a combo that wins 23% of the time at KEE. Winless in 4 starts in 2018 and first time at this distance.  First KEE start.  6 of 9 in the money over grass lifetime.  Bullet work, 1st of 54 at 4f at CD over dirt this month. 

Viva Vegas also makes first start at distance.  The 4 YO The Factor daughter as you would expect has a 315 Tomlinson with an asterisk.  Placed in G3 Violet at Monmouth. Early speed.

Shezaprado is slow out of gate but has 111 Timeform US Pace fig late.  226 Tomlinson at the distance which the 4 YO Filly has tried once.  5 wins in 17 turf starts.  Last win two races back on 6 Sept at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16.  She ran back 7 days later and made a mild bid and then followed that up with a work at KEE earlier this month.

I'm tossing 3 YO Rahway and  main track specialist Beach Flower from my exactas, maybe foolishly at least with Rahway.  Sired by Eskendereya, has a KEE win aand a bullet work over turf earlier this month.  I'm a bit intrigued at what should be a big price. 

What to do with all this?  I'll be assembling an exacta but I want to see the toteboard odds before I lock in. a $1  5-3 OVER 10-6-8-1-2-4-9 for $16 is my initial thought.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: Kentucky Downs Race 7: The One Dreamer $250K

On Leave:  Photo by Christie DeBernardis

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'm back this weekend with another very good betting race, the $250,000 One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs.  I've already posted wide open G1 Woodward Stakes and the race after this, the Tourist Mile $750,000.  Light chalks in all with big fields and I'm on the hunt for big payout exactas in each.

I just love Kentucky Downs.  I love the sort of horse it attracts too: hard knocking, veteran, geldings, fringe stakes runners, gutty and under performers alike.  I could watch video on these races for prep all day, and what a better way for the Turk to unwind this Labor day weekend.  I work hard, I travel constantly and quite frankly, I'm often tired and on the edge of mental exhaustion.  What keeps me plugging along at a high level is taking time before bed and on the weekends to dedicate time to my passion of horse racing.  You have to have an outlet.  I tell my staff constantly, what we do is a marathon, not a sprint.  It's mostly true, very often like any race, there are sprints within the marathon.  The Turk was raised by Momma and Papa Turk to work hard, work the pants off of everyone and advance through your merits.  I'm in the final furlongs of a career and its this horse racing blog that gives me my outlet and pleasure.  I hope my crazy and wild readers enjoy it as well.  It's now September 2018.  I started doing this in September 2008.  Time flies....

You'll find information here from what's available for the Equibase Kentucky Downs profile for Scratches/Changes etc.  The weather?  Looks drier than I expected.  I'm waiting to see what the condition of the turf is but I can't imagine its worse than Good.

Let's go!

Ellis Park:  1 1/16 Miles:  Last Race Effort on July 8th for Dubara (GB)/2, I Remember Mama/4 Youngest Daughter/5,  Burma Road/6 and Also Eligible Red Dane (Ity)





Arlington Park Race 6: Modesty G3; 1 3/16th on Firm Turf on July 7th with Celestial Insight/1 (#4), Con Te Partiro/7 (#11) and Prado's Sweet Ride/9 (#8)

Finish G3 Modesty: Twin Spires TV

I'm not sure what to takeaway from this:  Prado's Sweet Ride at 11.9-1 has one big run, Con Te Partiro at 9.3-1 comes late but well beaten and Celestial Insight at 3.3-1 buckles when the pace quickened.  One race back of this in the Grade 3 Mint Julep the 5 YO mare out of Scat Daddy (rest in peace) took the lead at the 1/16th pole only to lose by a neck, while the #8 horse in that race, Youngest Daughter cracks under pressure.

Mint Julep G3 1/16th to Go: Twin Spires TV

Youngest Daughter with no excuses, last few running lines;  "...faltered late, weakened, Bobbled Start, weakened, faltered, belated".  That's not good.  She was a vet scratch August 5th.   Her adjusted 1/4 time in Thorograph race shape is third fastest at :24.92 but if she can't finish better it won't help.  Celestrial Insight gets pilot Rocco back up and I think has a chance to finish top 4.

English Affair is intriguing to me.  The 4 YO English Channel filly is 6 of 8 in the money on turf, with 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 starts.  In the next video, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Preview held at Ellis Park on August 5th breaking with odds of 8.3-1 she closed fast.  Same for second race back with a running line of "gaining".  Post 10 and an opening 1/4 from Thorograph race shape of :25.62 means she may get hung up wide into first turn.



On Leave, Conditioned by McGaughey with Geroux up for Stuart Janney (White/Cherry Belt/Cherry Sleeves) a 5 YO War Front Mare, has $918K in earnings in 18 starts with 7 wins.  4 of 5 in the money at the distance, 14 of 18 in the money over grass and a race third best adjusted quarter time of :24.97 that should allow him to move over out of the gate from post 11.  Blinkers On.

Two back for On Leave is a game Distaff Mile on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs.  At 4.1-1 the mare lost in last few hops to the classy Proctor's Ledge.



Last Promise Kept breaks from post 12 and has little tactical speed but a big closing run with a late turn of foot Timeform late race pace fig of 103.  This is two races back in June in Delaware an OC 25K N2x.



UPDATE 2:46 PM:  Scratch 1 Celestial Insight and 7 Con Te Parito




Another very good betting race this weekend.  I'll be assembling some sort of Exacta that will look something along these lines:

$1 exacta 11-1-9 OVER 11-1-9-4-7-12-10-8 for $21.  I'll be watching the Will Pays prior to the start of this race to exclude anything that doesn't seem value driven,

Have fun!

Turk out