Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 26th, 2009: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II at Turfway Park

"...because the house always wins.

Play long enough, the house takes you.

Unless, when that perfect hand comes,
you bet big. Then you take the house."

Daniel Ocean, noted gambler.

The Turk doesn't gloat. The Turk is a horseplayer who knows better then to do anything except cash the tickets quietly and hope to cash another. No promises in this game. The Turk had several people today ask me why I picked the Kentucky Classic Cup to handicap and not some of the more high profile races at Laurel or Belmont. Easy question, because I thought I could win this one.

Turfway Park Race 13: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



As I said pre-race, there was a stratification between the top 6 and the bottom 3. They could run this race 10 times and I don't think that bottom 3 changes order. It's that kind of conviction that sets up one of my favorite angles "The large field with one heavy chalk and some obvious dogs" angle. Doesn't exactly roll off the tounge but it describes it perfectly, even if it didn't work as I expected.

It was clear to me that the bettors would fawn over Hold Me Back and why not. As a bettor I use the heavy chalk to help me fill one spot in an exotic ticket even though I understand it will reduce the payout. I pointed out that Hold Me Back was a tepid chalk in my book so I boxed him in both the Tri and the Super's. My base handicap was pretty darn accurate with the big difference being the flip flop of Hold Me Back and essentially Furthest Land. The Turk slotted the 2nd place, 3rd place, 5th,
7th, 8th and 9th place finishers in exacting order. You can make some hay like that.

Quality, not quantity. Know when not to bet, and that is much more often then when you should bet. When you see something set up before your eyes, and you been doing it long enough to see the repetitive patterns, bet as big as your budget will allow and never a cent more. I was rewarded today.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 26, 2009; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II at Turfway Park and Remembering El Prado and Kona Gold

That fine looking colt is none other then the only winner of the Grade II Lane's End and Kentucky Cup Classic, Hard Spun. Why is it relevant? The Turk's pre race chalk in today's Kentucky Cup Classic is Hold Me Back, the 2009 winner of the Grade II Lane's End.

We could start with the weather in Florence, or the track condition, but don't bother, the polytrack fake stuff is always listed as fast. I do dig the Turfway Park website very much, and I love Kentucky horse racing no matter if their own elected representatives are unprepared to level the playing field and allow race casino's. I digress and I'll surrender this type of dialog to serious media types who don't refer to themselves in the third person.

Turfway Park Race 13, Post Time 6:21 ET; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on neither turf nor dirt for 3 YOs and up.



It's an interesting field and as I built my handicap it occurred to me that their is a stratification of quality horses here and then some field fillers that should start running 2 seconds earlier. With 10 cent super's available, my goal shifted to building my handicap to identify the layer, slot the horses as best as possible to avoid too many boxed combinations, and then roll the dice. Let's get after it.

Hold Me Back, and the effort he is coming in off of on sloppy dirt at Saratoga cannot be ignored. A Grade II winner at Turfway Park as I previously mentioned, a nice 5f at BEL in 1:00 flat signals current form hasn't regressed. The 3 YO is 4 of 4 in the money on synthetic. Trainer Mott and Jock Leparoux hit at 24% for the year. An iron pipe lock? Nope, but a good 40% chance to win and he'll headline most of the exotic combo's I'll assemble.

After Hold Me Back, I love the parity of the next four runners and I only see subtle shading between them. Dubious Miss has C. Borel up, and that horse/jock combo has been unbeatable. Coming in off a solid 2nd in a Grade II at Arlington at 1 3/16, expect to see the 5 YO gelding come off the pace instead of a run from the far back. 3 Of 4 in the money on Synthetic and owner of the race's best lifetime BSF on synth at 105, should be in the top 4 (I'll say that at least 4 more times).

Sligovitz, a Woodbine invader for trainer Attfield, is 8 of 8 on synthetic tracks and 13 of 17 lifetime in the money. Why is this horse here? Because a smart horseman looking at the conditions book thought he could win. I expect a top four finish.

Wicked Style and Furthest Land are in this repetitive "I think a top four finish" mix. Wicked Style will be more favored by the bettors then me, and it's not that I'm down on the 4 YO son of Macho Uno I just believe handicappers should take a firm opinion even when explaining uncertainty. Lots to like including a :48 sec 4f work this week at KEE. 5 of 6 lifteime in the money on synthetic and 5 of 6 overall in the money in 2009. If his running style holds, he'll strike to just off the leaders early on and his fortunes will be decided by the trip of others as much as his abilities. R. Albarado is up for Trainer Arnold today. Expect a mid 90's BSF and bottom of the top 4 or 5th.

Furthest Land is coming off a long layoff and has Garret Gomez up (It sorta worked on in the Woodbine Mile last week). Trainer Maker has supertrainer stats: 28% routes, 31% synthetics, 27% 61-180 day layoffs, and an ugh with graded stakes at 5% in 19 tries. Big fish, small tanks? Not an insult at all, just an observation. Nice training pattern punctuated with :59 5f efforts

I'm still mulling where Timeless Fashion plays with my handicap today. 6 of 6 on synth, 6 of 6 at TP, a capable ungraded stakes runner who will provide much of the pace and you never know where a horse like this will land when the blanket drops across the wire. Distance could be the issue.

I'd be remiss in not remembering two more fallen stars, El Prado and Kona Gold.

El Prado(Ire) in a John Kaiser photo.



Kona Gold in a James Shambhu photo.



Rest in Peace and your humans will see you at the Rainbow Bridge.

I'd also be remiss in not reminding readers of The Turk that there is some fantastic writing taking place in a build up towards the Breeders' Cup. Members of the Thorougbred Bloggers Alliance have divvied up the various racing divisions to bring the readers individual analysis of each of the Breeders' Cup races. This is an exciting development for the Thorughbred Bloggers Allance, of which the Turk is a proud member of, so if you are passionate about horse racing, and I know you are because you're reading this, check out this link for the TBA Blogs at the NTRA website building towards the Breeders' Cup.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 11, 2009: The Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby

The Little Turk strikes. Pre race, I talked about the work that General Quarters was putting in at Churchill Downs, including a 5f in :58 work. I was impressed and made a note that if he started the Derby, that type of speed on that surface would bode well. I like General Quarters, but not enough to bet him to win, but the beauty of being a 9 year old handicapper is no fear. The Little Turk was rewarded with a $30.60 win bet, which to him meant more Star Wars Legos. Hold Me Back had a good effort. Mafaaz broke in the air and showed his abilities as well as his inexperience all in the span of 2 minutes. Nothing about this race changed my mind from my pre-race comments; There were some nice horses here, lots of parity, but few world beating Grade I types. I credit consistency with my exacta win, which paid a cool $117.60. I made my handicap, I worked my handicap, I followed my rules about when to bet or not bet Trifectas and Superfectas, and I cashed a workman-like ticket. I said pre-race that if I won money at this race I wouldn't gloat, and I'm not. Little Turk guessed and his guess negated 2 hours of handicapping analysis on my part. The 2 hours of work allowed me to make educated bets and the one I expected the least, hit. Consistency. Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Mechanics teaches much about the pursuit of quality in life. I like to think I apply the metaphysics of quality to my 'capping. A Turk has to have standards. I'm proud of the Little Turk. He listens to me talk about the horses, he watches the replays when I blog, and he has a fantastic memory for what impresses him. He seized on General Quarters not because of the name, but because of what he saw with his eyes. Trip handicappers everywhere, rejoice.

Race 9: Keeneland; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 on fake dirt for 3 YOs.





Race 11: Oaklawn: The Arkansas Derby Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.

I wasn't surprised to see Papa Clem take this one. As I said pre race, Papa Clem is battle tested and has consistently raced against the best in the 3 YO class and has acquitted himself well. Old Fashioned has an effort that Larry Jones can build on. You'd like to see more desire to finish, but this is still a fine colt. I think it was a weak field, or more appropriately as i said pre race, a field of parity outside of the top two. My exotics were mostly blown up by the presence of Summer Bird, a horse that Mrs. Turk identified as live and long. The exacta payout was a result of the consistency I have been preaching; Build your handicap, work your handicap, bet no more then you feel comfortable losing.





Little Turk, Mrs. Turk, and The Turk himself colored Easter Eggs tonight. Not satisfied with his domination of the handicapping world, Little Turk left his stamp on the symbol of the secular holiday as well. I thank the higher power who brought this little boy to me from half a world away. He's someting special!

The Nomination Is In: April 11, 2009: The Blue Grass Stakes GI

As a handicapper, I'm OK. I'm not big bettor and my livelihood isn't tied to cashing IRS tickets. If I was a shrewd whale bettor, I imagine I'd walk in the other direction of today's final two prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Why? Unpredictability supreme. The P word, parity. In the first race I'm looking at, The Blue Grass Stakes, we are presented with lots of moving parts: A synthetic surface, some long layoff's, some falling stars, some rising stars, and just a bunch of parity. One thing of importance to remember is we aren't handicapping the Kentucky Derby, but the Blue Grass Stakes. The horses don't know this is a prep race. Some of them will go on to be successful dirt runners, competitive in graded stakes races. That dirt affinity won't help them here. Some of them will go on to get crushed at Churchill Downs in a few weeks, yet will have fine careers on fake dirt or turf. You have to handicap what's in front of you and you have to shut out the hype machine. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that's none other then culturally relevant 2006 Blue Grass Stakes Champ Sinister Minister with G. Gomez, up. Gomez is up today with another long shot, Massone.

Race 9 KEE: The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt of some variation that I can't keep straight, for 3 YOs.



Bet strategy in a race like this to me will be about tying my hopes to one horse, and then fashioning multiple straight bets, exacta or trifecta, around him. With the size of the field, and the parity, horses filling out the exotic tickets will add lots of value. That's what I'm looking for if I bet a crap shoot like this. I've chosen Hold Me Back, most likely the chalk, to build around. The Turk likes to break the field into A, B and C horses, reserving D for non factors. "A" will generally contain the chalk and could-be chalks, and "B" group contains a contrarian bunch that could easily find the exotic tickets, and my "C" group I reserve for live but long horses, most likely no better then Show. I feel like 9 of the 11 here could have a blanket thrown over them and lumped into one group. Slight and subtle clues in my mind point the way to who has the best probability of success. I have Mafaaz (GB) pretty high, and he could flop and the Ol' Turk could look silly, but this isn't a beauty contest, I'm trying to cash good tickets for minimal investment and you ain't going to do that without consistency and occasionally trusting your instincts. Trainer Gosden is a cocky bloke that the Turk loves. While I have mixed feelings about how a race in Kempton earns anyone a place in the Kentucky Derby, the horse is a scrapper.

This will be a tote board watcher and an exercise in bettor restraint. I should pass, but I won't, I'll place some reasonable bets and hope for the best. If I win, I won't gloat, not that I ever do, because these are educated and reasoned guesses, nothing more.

Little Turk is feeling General Quarters today. Mrs. Turk has a soft spot for Cliffy's Future. Both spent 20 seconds on their selection and I'd give them even money with me to be right. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 21, 2009

The Turk took his time before writing this post. I'd like to tell you it is because these races, the Lane's End Stakes in particular, were such important races with such great implications to the Derby Trail that I had to make sure I analyzed it completely.

Well, that would be a lie. I feel like a broken record, as after most Derby preps I'm asking the same question: Is this parity and the signs of a very deep 3 YO class OR mediocrity where people would prefer to place hopes with Dunkirk then on the colts that have actually been competing in graded stake races?

I won't try to answer that question. The past performances, and not written hype, should be the basis of Derby contender lists. I'll take raw video on YOUTUBE any day to help me analyze the 401 Triple Crown nominees instead of talking heads on SAT TV. The Turk's red flair pen is working overtime, but as any honest handicapper will attest, some results just fly in the face of logic, and that's why they race on dirt (or that stuff that masquerades as dirt and contributes to soft tissue injuries) and not paper.

Race 10 at Turfway Park: The Lane's End Stakes Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on synthetic for 3 YOs.

I could have handicapped this race ten times and I wouldn't have picked Hold Me Back. Post Race on ESPN, they prattled about him posting bullets (true, but with small numbers of horses and not eye popping times) and Mott's stats with horses off of long layoffs (20% out of 95 races which is good except compared to Trainer Kiran Mclaughlin's gaudy 25% after 257 races). About the only thing the Turk saw that made sense was the second grouping of Proceed Bee/Parade Clown and Jack Spratt being bunched up in the second tier. West Side Bernie and Bittel Road join many other Triple Crown nominees who haven't stepped up when the moment was theirs to seize. Dynamite Bob was one of the only horses that got the memo and finished where he should have.






Race 7 at Santa Anita Park: The San Luis Handicap Grade II; 1 1/2 miles on Turf for 4 YO and up.

I was worried prerace that if a few horses scratched, that this smallish field would equal a ho-hum race to handicap and watch. I wasn't wrong. I did feel good about Spring House and I hope he is OK after being vanned off (I sometimes hesitate to find out...but I will). I wasn't surprised by Frankel's trainee, the only 4YO and the horse seemingly with the freshest legs going into the race.






Luckily in horse racing, if you have a dud weekend, there is always another opportunity soon. We'll be back next weekend with some more compelling races.