The Nomination Is In: The Secretariat and the Beverly D and the R 9-10-11 Pick 3

Million Preview Day July 2009

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action.  That's Little Turk and I hanging out on Million Preview Day 2009.  AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat.  There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.

In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.

What am I looking for in Turf racers?  I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class.  I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with.  When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.

Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.

Let's get after this!

Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D.


The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie






New York Stakes G2 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf



Jenn Wily G1 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf KEE




Belmont Oaks Invitational G1 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Athena (Ire)






2017 Beverly D Stakes G1 1 3/16 Mile Firm Turf




In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs 

Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)




Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain.  The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.







Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)




You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link:  Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.

You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn here.




The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot.  In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1.  Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet.  I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80.  I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and  Almanaar.  I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.

Have fun Friends!

Turk Out!

Little Turk: Million Day 34th Edition 2016

Post Race Recap with Video of Woodbine Pick 3 Race 3-4-5 30 August 2017

It started with good intentions. A handicapper, time on his hands.  A night time card with >$100,000 stakes.  What could go wrong?

Welcome friends to The Turk.  I'll leave Little Turk out of this tonight as he wasn't dumb enough to bet a Pick 3, win the sequence and find a way to post a negative ROI but that's what I did.

In race 3, I covered two horses after the early scratch of Eminent Force/6.  I thought Melmich would win as the very heavy chalk and he did.

In Race 4, I thought Miss Sea would win as the chalk but I covered Sweater Weather who went to post at $3.30-1 and the second choice among bettors.  Onto the last leg alive.

In Race 5, I covered four (4) Two Year Old's primarily on Trainer/Jock stats.  The heavy chalk won and the $29.30-1 horse I covered, Loopety Loo/9 was Place, 4 lengths back.

Three races, two heavy chalks and a negative ROI.   It was just for fun, I bet the $0.20 version and kept my loss to $2.91.

I'll live to fight again.

Gave a good night friends, Turk Out!

Race 3




Race 4



Race 5

The Nomination Is In: The Woodbine Race 3-4-5 Pick 3

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk mid week edition.  I was traveling quite a bit this week and thought I'd take a shot at mid-week Woodbine as I start playing the track quite regularly leading up to Woodbine Mile Day.    I've always like the way the fake dirt plays fair here and I find the races interesting usually, especially the restricted to Canada or Ontario races.

I'm not going to ramble too much pre-race.  Keep an eye on the toteboard as well as scratches and changes,

Have fun friends!  Turk Out.

Post Race Review with Video of Travers Stake Day

Drefong/Taylor Ejdys/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga didn't disappoint anymore than McGregor/Mayweather did. While I love the brash Irishman, I could never root for the foreign invader over the American.  You have to sort of hold your nose about both of their transgressions in life, but for my money, boxing, when its done right, is every bit the best sport on the planet next to horse racing.  How far outside of conventional thinking am I?  I know....

One thing I've always loved about the horses is they have no transgressions.  These athletes live to perform, give us all they have, and hopefully someone with ethics cares for them until they pass, giving them as best a life as they can have after the track.

I choose Drefong for my picture today as my misjudgment of him was my biggest error in a very successful betting day where I turned a 42% profit on my investment capital.  I respected the champion sprinter very much but I didn't like the gate position and severely underestimated his ability to fly out of that gate and strike the lead before the first turn.  I thought Diving Rod's positioning would deliver the upset but it wasn't to be.  Luckily I covered him in the horizontals.  I didn't play it but Drefong was my only miss in my theoretical Pick 6 that would have paid $7,967.  It was right there for the taking but if you play Pick 6 enough you learn you just have to move on from the misses.

The Twin Spires results tell the tale of my day that started slow and really turned with Races 9-10-11 and 12.

Race 6: The Personal Ensign Grade 1




Race 7: The Ballerina Stakes Grade 1




Race 8: The H. Allen Jerkens Grade 1




Race 9: The Forego Grade 1




Race 10: The Sword Dancer Grade 1




Race 11: Travers Stakes Grade 1




Race 12: The Ballston Spa Grade 2




Final Takeaways:

• Songbird was wildly overplayed. She's a great champion, but the Delaware Handicap was a so-so race Forever Unbridled is better than anyone that was in that race,   I started the day with a defensive $10 win bet on Forever Unbridled, the odds on Songbird were too low.  
• I really underestimated Highway Star.  I had a boxed exacta that his game Place obliterated. She's been training well, and had a sloppy track 96 Beyer at Belmont but I just don't see it on paper.  I was fooled.  My first indication was she was 9-2 just before Post, an 18% win percentage, where I had her at 1%.  Ugh.  
• I liked Takaful more than I liked Practical Joke, but I thought they'd both have a chance to win and the close finish didn't disappoint or surprise. I rightly shaded down American Anthem but over estimated Coal Front.  I won an exacta that lost money-a gambling mistake I should not have made.  
• I've already explained my Drefong mishap in The Forego.  
• I had Sadler's Joy prerace to win The Sword Dancer.  This race seemed so obvious.  I placed my only Trifecta bet of the day and won vertically $34 dollars on a Tri and Exacta.  Wished I'd played more!  I didn't buy the Idaho(Ire) hype. 
• I had West Coast as my co-favorite to win the Travers with Irap.  I had Gunnevera at the bottom of my group that could Place, seven deep, but I can't say I was that high on him.  
• I went into Race 12 with a Will Pay if Roco Rojo (Ire) won of $536 in the Pick 3.  That said, I thought Antonoe would finally upset her older rival, but it wasn't to be.
• I finished with two pick 3 wins and an entertaining afternoon.  

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 at Saratoga

Takaful: Robert Mauhar/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.

Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me.  I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor.  I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.

I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life:  North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do.  I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races.  I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it.  I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.

I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets.  The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s.  I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?

The Friday/Saturday weather looks dry.  Keep your eye on the Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes prior to betting always.

I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week.  it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays.  I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage.  Why is the morning Line >100%?  Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track).  I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).

Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky.  With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of  the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.



Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8).  Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).



I don't know yet what I'm doing.  I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6.  This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches.  I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.

Have fun friends- Turk out!

Post Race Video and Analysis of Monmouth Park on Haskell Day with Late Graded Stakes P3

Money'soncharlotte-DRF

Welcome Friends to the Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Wrap Up of The Haskell and the Late Graded Stakes Pick 3 At Monmouth Park on 30 July 2017.

The Turk had a good day, and while not bragging, I have no qualms with pointing out that this free blog brings consistent handicapping and tees up positive ROI Bet constructions.

That handsome gal went off at 9-1 and the Turk was all over her placing her atop my base handicap.  Video and visual handicapping left me very unimpressed with Carrumba, who I expected and was the chalk.   Moneys'oncharlotte came into Molly Pitcher with two straight improving wins for Trainer Kelly Breen.  I really liked how Eskenformoney gamely came up for Place in final furlong.

Carumba was Carumba, good but not good enough.  She's now 13 of 15 in the money (4 wins with last win April of 2016, and she was the chalk?)  the classy Bernadini 5 YO.

I don't think The Matchmaker was hard to figure out.  The Turk did not hop on Miss Temple City like most, I liked War Flag to win.  I don't like the returning from Ascot angle any more than I like returning from Dubai, it takes a lot out of the horse and I want to see a good race effort before I hop on that.  I thought Wekeela(Fr) would be good but what a easy trip Castellano gave her.  I'm still high on War Flag and that should keep her next race price reasonable.

Alive in the Pick 3, I died in The Haskell (I didn't technically die- I didn't play my handicaps, I don't always feel like gambling.  Do I need to give my degenerate card back?)  I have really liked Girvin since The Louisiana Derby  and he finished very strong along with McCracken, who I haven't warmed to yet and I should.

Timeline and Irish War Cry were the losers here, failing to advance themselves, but I still like Timeline's class an awful lot.  If I were the connections I'd stay the course, maybe look for Grade 2 competition in the Conditions Book. Practical Joke showed consistency, Battle of Midway was the betting public's 4th choice, I didn't think too much of him, 7th on my list.

The Haskell G1

The Matchmaker G3

The Molly Pitcher G3

Are you playing Saratoga?  I was hesitant this weekend because I want to see another week or so how the surface is playing.  Talk about a golden live rail!  It's there to be exploited but I'm still leery.  I'll be watching the results for another few days before I decide where to invest next weekends racing capital.

Have fun friends, thanks for reading, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Monmouth inc. Haskell

Irish War Cry- Horse Racing Nation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  My horse racing engagement was cut short this weekend with the Little Turk's U-19 Soccer team playing in a tournament.  With the team laying a rare egg, I was free to spend sometime looking at the Haskell and the two Grade 3's late on the Monmouth Card, the Molly Pitcher and the Matchmaker.

I'm very impressed by this year's Triple Crown crop of runners.  The runners exiting the Kentucky Derby this year have been competitive and are a fun group.  I don't really care where they rank in terms of past years and I don't care.  That's the sort of stupid discussion that takes place on Twitter that I couldn't be bothered with.  I'm sure it's the same with every sport, you get these elitists, either insiders or on the periphery of the inside, who feel like someone put them in charge of moderating all horse racing conversations.  I'd rather no one ever read this Blog than kiss some of these "expert's" asses to get mentioned.  They do nothing to help  market or grow this sport, they seem only content to let other's know they are serious horse racing observers (fan would be beneath them).  The new way to denigrate a blog like mine is to label it "tout".  Tout is a four letter word and that's what these serious people think of anyone who writes about handicapping or gambling, unless it's their friend who's the tout.

Yes, the Turk doesn't give a hoot about these experts.

Let's get it on!




These are some pretty interesting fields.  The Molly Pitcher is a complete mystery to me.  None of these fillies and mares seems to want to win when I watch on video.

I'm really looking forward to how Miss Temple City and War Flag hook up in The Matchmaker.  I like what I see from War Flag.

In the Haskell, we have a very deep field and I'm backing Timeline and Irish War Cry as the class of the bunch.

I doubt I make a $36 bet, but it will be some variation of what I have there in my handicap.  Keep your eye on conditions and scratches and changes.  The dirt is fast and the turf is good.


Race 12: The Haskell Grade 1:  1 1/8 Miles on Dirt

Iowa Derby G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



Ohio Derby G3: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Wood Memorial G2:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Affirmed G3 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt- four horse, paceless




Pegasus G3:  1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt




Dwyer G3:  1 Mile on Fast Dirt.




Race 11:  The Matchmaker G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

OC 50K  1 1/16 Turf 18 June 2017 Mth:  War Flag



The 2016 Matriarch G1: 1 Mile on Turf



Race 10:  Molly Pitcher G3 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt

Fleur De Lis G2:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt- Carrumba



Lady's Secret Stakes 76K:  1 Mile 70 yards on Fast Dirt



DuPont Distaff G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt



Have fun friends,

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Delaware Handicap and Race 7-9 Pick Three

Songbird at Santa Anita: Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Blog, a handicapping and horse racing blog established in 2008 on the premise of offering no BS handicapping to people who never asked for it.  It's free and it stacks up well with anything you will pay for.

Mr Rick Porter and Fox Hill Farms are the type of horse campaigners this sport needs more of.  A true sportsman in every sense of the word, Mr, Porter has brought to this game some of The Turk's favorite runners over the past 10+ years:   Harve de Grace, Hard Spun, Eight Belles, Rockport Harbor, Old Fashioned, Kodiak Kowboy and now Songbird.

How many of you rank 2011's Delaware Handicap as one of the greatest races of this decade so far:



We wish Mr. Porter the best as his long battle with cancer continues.  How many losses of true horsemen can this sport survive?  That's what the Turk worries about, but that's a deeper question for bloggers more worthy than I.

Today's edition of the Delaware Handicap doesn't contain a Blind Luck or even a Life at Ten (The Life at Ten Breeders' Cup Distaff debacle to me is still one of the great horse racing black eyes of the past decade).

I'm going to think horizontally today with a Pick 3.  I can take the contrarian position that the enormous favorite Songbird will be beaten or I can single her and try and find value in the first two legs.

Let's get after it!




The Dirt and Turf are listed as GOOD and there are no scratches  as of this morning.  The weather doesn't look to be a problem so expect upgrading in the track as the day goes on.

Race 7 is a $50,000 Stakes Race, The Hockessin, a one turn 6 furlong affair for 3 YOs and Up on the dirt.  Eighty Three is 8 of 9 on fast dirt in the money and 8 of 9 in the money at this distance.  Last raced April 13, Trainer David Jocobsen is only 9% off the 61-180 day break.  Expect the 6 YO gelded son of Harlan's Holiday out of Life's a Dance to be chalk.  The two I have my eye on are Never Gone South and Debt Ceiling.

Never Gone South enters off a 6f driving win in late June and is 6 of 7 in the money on fast dirt while Trainer Cathal Lynch is 23% stakes winner over past year on 39 tries.  Debt Ceiling, a recent claim of Kieth Nations has been working really well over past month and makes 2017 debut here.  Nations is 18% with new claims, 12% off 180 Day layoff.  Expect good price. I'm not that high on some that will be high on tote board: Always Sunshine and Chief Lion.  You have to pick your poison sometimes.

In Race 8 we have the The Kent, a Grade 3 1 1/8 mile route over grass for 3 YOs.  Trainer Christophe Clement, a 19% Turf winner on 634 starts in past year, brings in Frostmourne, the Grade 2 Penn Mile winner last time out.  This colt is rapidly improving.

Master Plan is an $850,000 March 16 OBS purchase trained by Todd Pletcher.  Classy Twirling Candy from Sage Mist (Henry Hughes).  Winner of the Delaware Park $50K Stanton, his second race back after a well beaten Show to Thunder Snow in UAE Derby and a very well beaten hand ride in his first effort back, the G3 Peter Pan in May.  Will be bet heavily and he's really a coin toss which way he goes.

I like The Tortoise: Two bullets coming into the race and a 1 Mile Allowance win on from turf here at Delaware last time out.  Lunaire shouldn't be ignored but again, you can't cover everyone.  A Malibu Moon colt, conditioned by Trainer Thomas Albertrani with Mike Smith up.     Adonis Creed beaten by Master Plan in the Stanton is a Brilliant Speed colt.  Brilliant Speed died yesterday in a freak lightning strike at Three Chimneys Farm.  Rest in Peace Brilliant Speed!



In Race 9, the Delaware Handicap it's Songbird's to lose.  Trainer Kieth Nation's has Martini Glass training well and enters off a game Place in a 100K stakes. Weep No More goes with blinkers today for Trainer George Arnold.  Winless since a Grade 1 Ashland win in 2016 from last at the top of the stretch to first at the wire.  Field size is the same and the pace maybe the same.  Songbird is better than this.



So what to do? First of all, have fun and do your own handicapping.  When it comes to bet construction, you have several ways to approach this.





I think there are 5 contenders in Race 7, 4 Contenders in Race 8 and One Contender in Race 9.  Top to bottom in base handicap is how I count those out.

A $2 PICK THREE with 5 Horses OVER 4 Horses OVER Single would cost $40. That's not value and isn't a bet worth betting.

Two basic approaches, maybe three:

1. Single Songbird and look for value in first two legs
2. Look for Songbird upset, but if that happens you MUST win first two legs
3. Keep bet cost <$20 bucks and enjoy the action.

For low cost betting on this three race sequence I've settled on  either a $16 bet that envisions Songbird's Defeat or an $18 that gives me three chances in the first two legs and Songbird singled.  

I'll be watching the toteboard and won't be that emotional about which 2 or 3 I cover in Race 7 and 8. I'll use my base handicap and the tote board to find value.   

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Park Black Tie Affair Handicap Day Late Pick 3

The Pizza Man: Photo by Benoit

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I've reached the point in the racing season where I want to handicap the older horses, mostly over turf or routes over dirt.  I like the older horses, and the information that flows from their past performances.

Today I'm focusing on Arlington Park, a backwater in horse racing because of Local/State politics and the inability to field quality races with meaningful purses. It's a beautiful track, and the lush blue-green grass is everything that's right with the game.  Even it's fake dirt plays very fair.

The rhythm of Arlington isn't complicated.  You can work backwards from The Arlington Million in mid August, to Arlington Million Preview Day in Mid July and finally to Saturdays like this in June.  I like to handicap these $50,000 minor stakes in June because it gives me a feel for the horses that will round out those fields of Euro invaders and top turf horses that will ship in for the big days.  I'm not saying you need to play these days to have good handicapping days when Grade 1 racing returns but I'm saying it helps me get a feel for the track and the locals.

I'm only a bit interested in these races. I'd like to see the fields a bit bigger and the class a bit more even.  My goal is again to get a feel for the local trainers, these local horses, and to make some intelligent handicap/bet combos.  I'm a good Pick 3 handicapper, but I tend to cover too many horses in the bet selection, taking value away.  I typically only play Pick 3's if I feel like I can find value with 2 legs of the race boasting my chalk that are 3rd or lower on the tote board.  I sense this series will be chalky but let's get after it anyways!




The first two races are over turf at 1 1/16 miles.  Today the Turf was upgraded to good.  With more rain in the forecast, it's hard to say right now what the track condition will be at post time.

The Mike Spellman Memorial Handicap is for F&M, 3 YO and Up.  I have three horses that I think can take the wire:  Lovely Loyree/5, last year's winner Stormin Elle/4 and Prado's Sweet Ride/2. The class of the race without a doubt is Lovely Loyree: 10 of 10 at the distance in the money and 14 of 14 in the money over turf, as well as 5 of 5 in the money at AP.  Trainer Michele Boyce is 16% with horses off a 180+ day break and that's what she's facing here.  I question if the goal is to win this race or have a good workout.  I'd feel comfortable backing any of the three but when forced to choose I may just take the 4-2 into the Pick 3.


In race 8, the Black Tie Affair Handicap, we have the season debut of handicap division star The Pizza Man/3.  I'm going to assume he p;icks up where he left off, a mid to upper 90+ Beyer and the soft grass won't bother him at all.  Trainer Chris Block's Cammack/1 will be a strong competitor as well coming late.  3 straight wins and low 90+ Beyers.  Super Soldier/2 comes in off a OC 35K win at 1 Mile at AP on a troubled trip where he closed rapidly in last 1/16.

In race 9, an OC 50K/N2X, I'm high on Cash Bonus/7 and Western Elegance/6. Both are steady performers.

I don't plan on overthinking this too much.  I'll be watching the tote and the weather conditions as well as scratches and changes from the Arlington Park website.  I'll be assembling a Pick 3 bet that I suspect will be a bit chalky.  I intend to cover 2-4 OVER 1-2 OVER 7-6-1-3.  A $2 bet would cost $32.  Going to 2-4 OVER 1-2 OVER 7-6 on a $2 bet would cost $16.  That's the sort of risk/reward bet that offers value.  Covering Lovely Loyree and Pizza Man may feel good as a race fan, but I suspect they will be heavily bet and I'm suspicious of the trainer expectations tomorrow.

Have fun with it.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Day Late Pick 3

Paynter last year (insert sad emoticon)

 Welcome friends the the Labor Day Weekend edition of The Turk and the Little Turk.  Traditionally I like to be at the Spa on Woodward Day but it just didn't work out this year.  My family and I did get to spend a very lovely and low key day at the track on Thursday where Little Turk took home the Turk Clan handicapping challenge, parlaying consistent win and show bets into positive ROI.  It makes this big, bald idiot handicapper proud to know I have raised the next generation of horse players, that I've done my part to keep horse racing alive and well. 

Little Turk is growing up in an era where racing is just out of sight of most kids who aren't growing up in a racing town or the bluegrass. 

When I was his age, pre internet, I looked forward to my Sports Illustrated Magazine subscription every week, and during the Triple Crown season and during the summer there was a horse racing article every week. 



 

Paynter Now!

The children of this generation are barely exposed to the beauty of the race track.  Race tracks to me are like safe harbors, calm water where you get out of the daily rat race, forget the cell phone, forget the worries, and just relax.  I've exposed Little Turk enough to the sport where he's developed a love for it, and while it rates below Soccer, Football and Hockey, at least its above bowling and curling in the landscape of entertainment options for him.

Ahh Paynter.  I worried so about this proud and beautiful Haskell winner, son of Awesome Again  with Tizamazing as a Dam, as he recovered from serious medical problems, and I watched in awe at how he decimated an Allowance Field at Hollywood Park early this year in his comeback.  I love stories like this and its what makes me stay a horseplayer, the horsefan in me.  Thanks by the way for Casey Phillips for the use of that lovely photo of Paynter.  The one of Paynter being cared for I believe was Justin Zayat, but whoever took it, thanks as well.

I am a horseplayer first and foremost when it comes to my money.  I have no problem whatsoever with how anybody bets, and we all know people who bet sentimental favorites.  The Turk doesn't pretend to be anything other than I handicapper who brings a consistent approach to his handicaps and bets, winning more than losing, but I am not the type of handicapper, the type I avoid and don't particularly enjoy spending time around, who believe they alone understand the Rosetta stone of racing. If you want to bet Paynter because you are inspired by him, go right ahead!  The horse racing fan is thrilled to see him at the Spa today, I give Baffert credit for shipping him here when there were races at Del Mar that he could have done well with too. He will draw betting action no doubt, which will leave me my Pick Three single, Successful Dan, at a better price.  horseplayer and horsefan can coexist-  I'm assembling a pretty low risk Pick 3 and if Paynter wins, I'll be happy too. 

Let's get after this!



I like the field in the Bernard Baruch quite a bit: Turallure, down lately, Tetradrachm, Za Approval and Silver Max are all fine quality, and So Long George, a shipper from Woodbine, must be respected too. 

I like those five in some combination for a Superfecta;  The base handicap has Silver Max on top and I like the :58 3/5ths bullet he dropped at SAR on the 18th of August and I think he'll be OK even if the turf isn't firm.

It's a good time to bring that up.  Track Conditions are hard to say for later.  Keep your eye on those and the scratches and changes.

Going in his second off a layoff is Tetradrachm, a horse quite frankly I had never heard of before (and i can't say that too often in the Stakes Races).  The 4 YO gelding won at 1 1/16 on firm SAR turf this meet and Bill Mott and Johnny V are clipping away at 27% together.

I'm a Clement fan and Za Approval is a classic late turn of foot turf runner.  6 wins in 12 turf tries, 9 of 12 in the money on turf, 2 wins in 3 starts at the distance and a SAR victory in his resume. 

Turallure has gone a VERY long time between wins but lost by a head over turf listed as good at SAR this meet and can't discount him for Show or Exotic.   I may have So Long George too low but I typically don't back Woodbine shippers into SAR to win so I won't cover in the P3 to my peril.  His Nijinsky Grade 2 win was really well done and can't be discounted from hitting the board as high as Place. 

The Grade 1 Forego at first blush seems a Zayat Stable slam dunk, and are they plotting a Forego-Woodward sweep?  D. Wayne Lukas revival continues to go well as Fast Bullet comes to his barn, along with all the promise that 4 wins in 5 starts brings for a lightly raced 5 YO.  His game for this 7 furlong affair seems pretty simple: go fast and hold on.  He's won on an off track and he may get loose on the lead and fly across sealed dirt.  Fast Bullet is Coupled with Justin Phillip, no slouch either and the winner of 4 starts on off tracks. 

I like either Lea or Sage Valley to throw the upset.  Lea is going on dirt for only the second time but does have a win on slop. Al Stall picks his marks well and B. Hernandez is up and the two win 26% of the time together. There is no Wise Dan in this race to thwart the 4 YO First Samuri runner.  Sage Valley has been training very well for Rudy Rodriguez and this winner of the James Marvin looks very capable.  I like this as a betting race very much and we'll be playing supers with the base handicap.  Is Jackson Bend really six?  I'm feeling old!  Not a bad $3,000 Hear No Evil son. 

In the main event the scratch of Fort Larned takes some of the sizzle out of the betting but we'll manage with what's left.   Put your hand up in the air if you've bet Flat Out away from BEL and got your teeth kicked in?  2 wins on off tracks and two sizzling works for Bill Mott's runner and recent Suburban G2 winner but zero of three wins at SAR.  Ron the Greek, another Mott I've consistently screwed up since the Lecompte (is Ron the Greek really six years old?  Now I do feel old!) doesn't seem to be at his best right now.  I'll most likely flip flop him and Paynter depending on the track conditions, as I know Ron the Greek doesn't mind slop but I don't know about mighty Paynter.

Successful Dan does seem to be in good form but he'd be going on the off track for the first time in his career.  Paynter would be for the second time since the slop of the Derby Trials at CD last year.

I've only got one betting option right now, an $18 dollar 3 by 3 by 1, with my single being Sucessful Dan.  I doubt this wins quite frankly and sometimes the process of typing out my handicap sways me.  I'm more likely to single Silver Max, go three deep with the coupled entry in the Forego, and maybe 4 deep in the Woodward, pushing the bet out to $24. 

I'll be watching the weather and track conditions before I have to make my P3 bet at around 4:30 ET.  have fun with it friends, we shift towards Belmont and Santa Anita next as we start to gear up for my favorite betting weekend of the year, Breeders' Cup. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Colonial Turf Cup Pick 3 (Race 6-7-8)

Edward P. Evans loved his horses.  Rich beyond the comprehension of most horse players, Edward P. Evans was an everyman around his horses, enthusiastic and deeply involved.  His Quality Road was my last thoroughbred obsession, and with his death on New Years Eve 2010, there is a void left in the owner/breeder/sportsman ranks that has yet to be filled.  Barbara Livingston assembled a photo essay as a memorial to the late Mr. Evans for the Daily Race Form that is worth taking a look at on this special day in Virginia horse racing, a state that honored Mr. Evans 9 times as Breeder of the Year.

As a horse fan and a horse gambler, I was pretty disappointed today.  I planned to play Belmont's late Pick 4 but I was very turned off by a 5 horse Mother Goose Stakes.  I flipped over to Hollywood only to find a 5 horse Hollywood Oaks and a bunch of 2 YO races.  I don't want to sound like a crabby ol' Turk but I can't do anything much with a 5 horse field, it doesn't play to my strengths and it isn't even that compelling.  Colonial Downs wasn't my last choice, it was my first choice for turf today, but only seven horses in the Grade 3 All Around and 8 horses in the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup still bugs me, but its adequate enough to handicap and assemble some small bets.

I'm still in a bit of shock over last week's Stephen Foster Handicap;  I didn't see the break out/return to form of Breeders' Cup Classic Champ Fort Larned.  Shame on me, but I don't think I would have predicted those results ever.  As handicappers we have to have short memories and put the missteps aside: The horses don't read my blog, they don't get the memo, get over it Ye' Ole crabby Turk.

Let's get after this!



The two key races of this Pick 3, the graded stakes, have smallish fields for turf races, but a core of quality horses in each.  Race 6 at 7:10 Eastern Time is the Edward P. Evans All Along.  The turf should be firm come race time.  Channel Lady, a 4 YO English Channel daughter trained by Pletcher with Castellano up, should be a money magnet and will go off at even or less than even odds.  6 of 8 in the money on turf, 6 of 9 lifetime in the money with 4 wins, loser at 1 mile on good turf last time out.  On paper she has the class and the connections.  Fairly dull morning work.  I can't help but tip my hat to her as the best horse in the field but I'm going to bet against her. 

So who then? Appealing Cat, an Augustin Stable runner for Trainer Motion, with Prado up, is the sort of sucker horse I've lost plenty of races with.  The 4 YO Successful Appeal runner bred by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge seems to be going well right now with an N3X win and a warm up effort Grade 3 at Pimlico last month on Preakness Day.  I also like Adjacent, a 7 YO Boundary Mare for trainer McGaughey and Lezcano up.  Cutting back in distance off her last effort at Belmont, 8 of 10 in the money lifetime. 

Embarr and Welcome Dance round out my possibles.  Welcome Dance is intriguing: Sharp work in prep of first race since October She may push the pace.  My thought is that Channel Lady and Adjacent will chase the pace and Appealing Cat will fire late off of that pace.  Do they read the blog?

The Colonial Turf Cup field is also well balanced, with only Roadhog and London Lane being tossed.  I like Atigun to win.  The 4 YO Istan runner,  cutting back in distance, is 4 of 5 in the money in 2013 with a clunker in Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and decent efforts all round. 

Air Support will get alot of play but only one win in last nine starts, but a few big efforts to Place, including last year's edition of this race, losing to Turbo Compressor by 1 1/4 lengths.

Hyper is interesting;  Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf races, 21% of Graded Stakes and 33% off this sort of layoff.  4 of 4 in the money in 2013, the 6 YO Victory Gallup runner for the Ramsey's may still have a new level to achieve in his career and today could do that.

General Logan should come late off the pace.  Swift Warrior has a good chance to upset the applecart too.  That's as deep as I'm going.

I'm going to build some reasonable Trifectas and Superfectas for both Race 6 and 7;  Both bets for both races will be the same with the superfecta 3 over 5 over 5 over 4 for a $6 dollar ten cent bet and the Trifectas  3 over 5 over 5 for an $18 50 cent bet. 

The Pick 3 I'm toying with either 3 horses over 3 horses over 3 horses for a $27 dollar 1 buck bet OR a 2 horse over 2 horse over 7 horse $14 dollar 50 cent bet. 

The Turk's Rolex fund is growing with my winnings but today seems like a pretty chalky affair so I'm more interested in having fun than losing big.  Always bet responsibly and get help if you need it.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 24, 2012: The Late Pick Three at Turfway Park on Spiral Day

Funny things happen when a prep race launches a Kentucky Derby Winner, all of the sudden you are the place to be. Like Mine That Bird putting the Sunland Derby on the map, so has Animal Kingdom placed the Spiral Stakes back on the map.

For those of you who get sucked into this Triple Crown Derby Trail madness, this is a mellow weekend, the calm before the Florida Derby storm next weekend.

The latest edition of the insightful Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll came out last week and the focus has really narrowed to some of the seriously hyped superstars at the top, which at least, they have backed up the hype with solid performances. With today's Spiral Stakes and tomorrow's Sunland Derby, some minor players will have a chance to impress and give the handicappers on Derby morning something interesting to think about.



The Wireplayer Poll was all over Animal Kingdom last year, so pay close attention to them as well as the folks at The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers. For those of you new to this sport, I know the lingo and the past performances can seem a little daunting. Check out Hello Race Fans!, a wonderful site for the beginner and expert alike. When all else fails and you need some real iron pipe locks, check out my secret handicapping weapon.

Today's affair is on the fake dirt of Turfway Park. Weather isn't much of an issue with the fake stuff, but there are thunderstorms in the area, so pay attention to the weather, the scratches and the changes.

I'm going to assemble a pick three out of my base handicap, using an assortment of horses coded Blue or Yellow. I'm planning on staying pretty close to what I have here in my base handicap:



As always, watch the tote board and strike a balance between the base handicap choices and value. An example of this can be found in the Spiral Stakes: Ill Conceived lost by a head to State of Play in the prep for the Spiral, the Battaglia Memorial. Shippers with plenty of hype like Heavy Breathing will garner lots of betting action and you'd be wise to place the Pletcher trained son of Giant's Causeway at the top of your base handicap, but are we here to win $2.10 or $10 bucks on a $2 win bet flyer? Straight on that friends!

Have fun with it, enjoy this weekend's racing. If you pay attention, this year's wiseguy favorite for the Kentucky Derby might be right in front of you.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 3, 2012; The All Grade One Late Pick Three at Santa Anita on Big Cap Day

Hello friends, I'm writing this from the wind tunnel known as Western New York today. I can't remember in my lifetime such a mild winter, punctuated my oddities like multiple wind storms and snow lightning. It's felt like spring since, well, fall ended, and I'm not complaining. I will start with saying a quiet prayer for the people in the mid west who are dealing with just hellish tornadoes, the aftermath is what is rolling through my area now. I know what 70 miles per hour feels like, I can't even begin to imagine what it must be like to go to sleep and be awakened by nature's killer. Anyway, I know like many of you I turn towards the horses and the track as an escape from the ugliness and the pain of the outside world, but it's hard not to ignore such a tragedy tearing through horse country.

With the season turning towards spring very soon, horse racing season does pick up a notch for me. Older horses running at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter over dirt is my idea of ultimate racing. The Big Cap, The Santa Anita Handicap, is celebrating its 75th running. The race is a treasure of imagination to me: Seabiscuit winning in 1940, Shoemaker up on Round Table and Ack Ack, four straight legends with Affirmed in 79', Spectacular Bid in '80 and John Henry in '81 and '82 with more recent memories the back to back wins of Milwaukee Brew and Lava Man, as well as my favorite older horse Einstein in 2009.

Before we go to far let's look at the track record setting 1979 Affirmed in 1:58.6. How soon till that falls? I don't think today but the way the Arcadian speedway is playing, its only a matter of time.



I'd also be remiss in not mentioning, ah what the hell, showing 2001 Tiznow by special request.



I'm not sure yet how I'm going to play the races, horizontally or vertically, but I've built my base handicaps and they are a bit chalky in the first two legs.

Santa Anita Races 9-10-11



There's no chance of rain and the track should be fast. In Race 9, The Las Virgenes, I sure like Reneeesgotzip; training very sharply and enters fro Trainer Miller (18% last start winners) off a crushing win in Santa Ynez Grade 2. The only thing I don't like is Trainer Miller's Soul patch (just kidding!)



Eden's Moon comes in for Trainer Baffert looking very impressive. Training very sharply with :46 1/5th at 4 furlongs and 1:12 2/5ths at 5 furlongs, as well as an 11 length win in a MSW 56K in January. Stepping up, maybe ready to step out. I'll most likely sit on the sidelines on this race but I will look for value with Willa B Awesome who I'll want >6-1.

The Frank Kilroe Mile is Race 10 and it's hard not to like heavy chalk Mr. Commons, the 4 year old son of Artie Shiller who seems to have come into his own after returning to California following last year's Preakness. Two straight 1 Mile turf wins in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes and The Arcadia. Trainer Shirreffs and Mike Smith winning 24%of races together at SA.

Jeranimo and Willyconker (Ire) will be close: Willyconker (Ire) came late in the Arcadia and should still be value as a 40K claimer in a Grade 1. I'm thinking top four for Trainer Doug O'Neill.

Jeranimo is 8 of 11 in the money over turf and 5 of 6 in the money over Santa Anita turf and at 6 YO, is the race's career earner at $840,000.

Jeranimo got the better of Mr. Commons in the Oak Tree Mile.



I'm curious about how Jimmy Simms runs and Compari will be in the mix. Jimmy Simms is firing bullets of 1:10 4/5ths and 1:11 3/5ths at 6 furlongs, good stuff, and Asmussen and Nakatani are clipping away at 23% together at SA. Compari dropped back in class and string two wins together, beating Willyconker in an 80K OC in January and is a Grade 2 winner.

In the Big Cap a field of 13 compete and there is an awful lot of quality in this race.

Trainer Mott ships into Santa Anita with Ron the Greek. Why is he here? To win obviously, or Mott would not have picked the spot. he's got the only classic distance win of this group and has gone a mile and a quaretr twice while the rest of the field combined has tried 5 times. I'm looking for value and I think he represents that at >6-1.

As a horse racing fan, I love Ultimate Eagle; Let's watch him crush the Strub field in early February.

Strub G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA



That was his first dirt win and he really throttled Jaycito and Prayers for Relief.

Setsuko and Norvsky have my attention; Dick Mandella in a bit of symmetry trains the gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect. He prepped in an N1X in February and then fired off a 1:12 even at 6 furlongs and a smokin' 1:23 4/5ths at 7 furlongs. He lost by a nose to Game On Dude in the fastest edition of the race last year in 15 years. Norvsky is looking for his first dirt win as a 6 YO, but he is full of class on turf and 13 of 15 in the money over grass. Trainer Warren wins 55% of his Graded Stakes on 11 tries and 20% of his Turf/Dirt Switches, although he's a 25 winner on Dirt and 6% at SA overall.

Uh Oh Bango will draw some attention. Here he is in the San Antonio

The San Antonio G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA



I'm more apt to try Holladay Road or Gladding; Holladay Road is a Cal State bred for Trainer Canani with Bejarano up. A nice 1:11 4/5ths 6f signals good form and Canani is 33% off the 31-60 day layoff. Sadler's Gladding has been freshened since the Ack Ack in November and while training well, Sadler is just 13% off 61-180 day break.

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Late Pick Three including the Grade 1 La Brea

The Great Race Place has always held a special place in my heart, a romance that went astray for a few years because of the fumbled dalliance with fake dirt and the number of race days lost to wash outs. I don't have a complete bias against fake dirt: I play it at Hollywood, Woodbine,Keeneland, Presque Island and Arlington, but Santa Anita and Del Mar felt wrong and the material doesn't seem right for the ambient conditions at either location. I exercised my right as a horse player to take my handle elsewhere and I found myself shying away from Santa Anita before the expensive gamble was ended and dirt reinstalled, and my boycott of Del Mar continues, sans the Turf track. The Santa Anita main track is hard and fast and you have to take into account that they play with it often and the track plays differently over time. With that knowledge, I find the best way to have success at Santa Anita is to play Santa Anita, which brings me to today, the last Grade 1 of the year, the La Brea.

Opening Day at Santa Anita was a huge success; Turf Blogger Teresa Genaro writing in Forbes highlighted the renewal in attendance for the opening day card, the biggest crowd since 1994, but correctly identified the importance of Santa Anita on the overall American racing scene.

I'm an oddity: I'm an East Coast horse guy who loves California racing. I don't get hung up on West versus East, I just prefer Santa Anita to inner track racing at Aqueduct (my New York credentials are about to be revoked)and I don't pay much attention to Gulfstream until the Donn Handicap, so Santa Anita gets the drop on everyone for me.

Let's get after it!

Santa Anita Race 7-8-9 Late Pick Three



Race 7 may be the only two year old race I've written about all year, and it may be only the third or fourth I've handicapped. Yes, I have age bias. I'm just not that into the youngsters and the biggest reason is I like to see lots of information on the past performances. I'm not a pedigree expert, nor do I spend much time studying the physical animal, I like numbers and 2 YO's lack numbers. That said, those 2 YOs are 3 YOs tomorrow, ready or not, and I'll be paying attention to them now. I know from keeping my own statistics on my handicapping/betting that I struggle with three year old racing before June. I'm not tragic, just not as sharp as I'd like to be. Last year's screwy "different 3 YO every prep race" winners didn't do much to help my stats. My bread and butter is the handicap division, especially turf horses. Know thyself.

I always come off as a kill joy when I make this point but you don't have to bet every race you handicap. I handicap often just to stay abreast of the talent as well as to see how the tracks playing. I'll pick winners with no money on the table and I use the exercise to give myself a feeling for where I'm at. The idea of action betting that has been in many horse racing betting books is something I rejected and I hope some of my readers will push away from the betting window when they aren't fully prepared to make a strong stab at winning.

The Eddie Logan is a special race, as I've already said it takes alot for me to bet the 2 YOs. Eddie was a Santa Anita institution, and I had the honor of interacting with him just a few years ago. I hope he rests in peace and i have no doubt that if there is a thing such as ghosts, that Eddie's would be a friendly one wandering the hallways near his old shoeshine location.

The son of Scat Daddy, Daddy Nose Best is my chalk in this spot. The Assmussen trainee comes off the pace nicely and is 4 of 5 in the money over the grass already, with the biggest turf Tomlinson of the field.

Stoney Fleece makes the switch from Dirt/Tur, something Trainer Sadler pulls off 25% of the time. A nice Grade 3 1 mile turf effort two back, setting his best Beyer at 83, confirms his ability to compete.

Chips All In is 4 of 4 in the money but goes over the turf for the first time, something Trainer Mullins pulls off 19% of the time, but he's also only 11% going from Fake Dirt to Grass.

The Black is my superfecta wildcard.

In the La Brea I'll be singling Turbulent Descent with a quartet of horses that I think could upset her. She's giving 5 pounds to everyone but I don't place much stock in that. Training sharply and the girl to beat.

My quartet is May Day Rose, Sarah's Secret, Home Sweet Aspen and Great Hot (Brz). Baffert's May Day Rose is a two time Grade 3 winner who came up just short in her last out, a Grade 2 during Breeders' Cup undercard racing. Sarah's Secret has no dirt, no distance, no Santa Anita efforts. She is a Grade 2 winner and a daughter of Leroidesanimaux (Brz). Home Sweet Aspen is perfect in the money over dirt and at Santa Anita. Toss the last effort and hope for a return to form. Great Hot (Brz), with Sutherland up, is a Santa Anita winner and very game.

Race 9 is a pretty good Optional Claimer/N2X; Baffert's Capital Account is off a long layoff, something Baffert does well 35% of the time, and has been training quite well. I also like Carla Gaines's Shrug: Blinkers off (17% angle) and training very sharply at Santa Anita.

Lunada Bay is a Baffert/Mike Smith joint, 30% winners at Santa Anita. Another long layoff horse.

Ron Ellis's 5 YO gelding Believe in Hope is winless in 2011 but had a very good last race out at 6F at Santa Anita. The son of Thunder Gulch has one win in last 8, way back in April 2010.

Carl O'Callaghan is a trainer I think is going places. His Leaving New York has been on the shelf since April and breaks from the 1 spot but has an awful lot of talent.

I'll build a very reasonable Pick 3 that echos my base handicap, with Turbulent Descent singled and a bit of value if I can find it. If i can't string a Pick Three together that has enough value I'll save the betting capital and invest in the superfectas I'm preparing.

Have fun with this nice card. We'll be playing Santa Anita All weekend and before next week I'll put up my track stats that I'm keeping.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: 1 October 2010: The Lady's Secret/Goodwood Stakes Pick 3 and the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita

The worst case scenario; With five weeks to go until the Breeders' Cup, this weekend's fantastic slate of Graded Stakes was for me the start of my Breeders' Cup handicapping. With the rains impacting Belmont's surfaces, but really, smallish fields in the Kelso and Beldame, I'm going to just be a horse racing fan today for Super Saturday and instead be a bettor at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita. Sure I can still gleen something from Belmont today, but it won't apply the first weekend in November, the weather is going to be beautiful and the track fast and turf firm (dear God, please give me this :-) )

It's not every weekend you get the lineup of stars we have today: Stay Thirsty, Jersey Town, Jackson Bend, Uncle Mo,Royal Delta, Life at Ten, Havre de Grace, Euroears, Blind Luck, Zazu, Coil, Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Cambina(pictured above), Malibu Pier and Harmonious to name my favorites today.

Some would argue (including this idiot Internet hack at times) that the sport doesn't have stars. I'd argue we have plenty of stars, it's the trainers(who in my equally dubious and most likely ill informed opinion) don't do enough to market the sport by not running them more frequently. Before I go off ranting about the state of horse racing and the black hole of a discussion on how to fix it, let me just stop and say that there is alot of good in horse racing, evidenced last night at Charles Town, where race one was named after a good friend, and one of the sports great grass roots ambassadors, Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds. I put a You Tube video up of Tim handicapping the Derby just to give you a flavor for the wit and intellect, as well as the race educated passion. Tim will be missed and his loss sits like a great void, as he often was the catalyst that got many a great race conversation going. As us humans are known to do, after we lose someone we pick ourselves up and we keep going, one foot in front of the other, never forgetting our dead, but life must be lived.

Speaking of the Tim Memorial race, The Little Turk does it again, hoping on one of my toss outs, J.J. Devil to win the race at $42.60. The Little Turk is about to test for his black belt and yes I am afraid; He's got ice in his veins as a 'capper and feet of steel. Pretty soon this will be the Little Turk and the Turk blog.

If you're still reading and haven't bailed out of my blathering yet, let's get after today's work!



In typical fashion on the West Coast, and most likely in search of the almighty simulcast bucks, the races don't unfold on the card like they would on the East Coast. You can whine about it or just embrace it, and I'm long past whining about it. I didn't see a Pick 4 option and I don't waste time on Pick 6, so I assembled a Pick 3 out of The Lady's Secret, The Goodwood, and a nice N1X on the turf, and then I'll take a a few races off to eat the lamb shanks I'm preparing for dinner and come back for the 10 furlong Grade I Yellow Ribbon. This is a good day's worth of horse racing but if I could digress just a bit, it seems to me horse racing misses an opportunity by not having a Super Saturday and a Super Sunday 5 weeks before Breeders' Cup and I don't see why Belmont couldn't have put even a better card together today and then had Santa Anita bring it home tomorrow with stacked lineup of Grade 1 action. Anyway....

In full disclosure, I handicapped late into the night last night and with the week I've had, I'm not sure I'm at the top of my game. I've learned as a handicapper, but really as a bettor, that what works for me is repetition and discipline to my techniques and methods. While I may feel a bit "emotional" still about the loss of Tim, or feel a bit stressed by my job which is very demanding, I've done my handicapping and followed my usual approach so I will push aside any anxiety I may have and follow through on the betting. How many of you had your best days when you thought you were going to suck? Do your business, bet consistently and over the course of time the results will become consistent.

The Lady's Secret is delectable field of seven and I think five of them legitimately could hit the board. When I'm faced with parity I'll often step back and ask myself what I think the trainers ultimate goal is with his mount:Is he there to win this race or is he looking to sharpen the knife for the next effort. Of course you can do both, but when you're stumped never forget to ask yourself as you review each horse on the PP's "Why is he/she here?"

Why is Blind Luck here? Is it to win the The Lady's Secret or is it to be sharp next month; unraced since she nosed out Harve de Grace in mid July, working strongly, but Hollendorfer is 10% off the 60-180 day break, clearly his mindset in general is to sharpen for the real prize. Now usually I'll ramble like this and Blind Luck will go out and win by 7 lengths, and that could happen, but I think today she'll hit the board and really be tuning up more than anything. Another oddity, Hollendorfer and Go Go have yet to win at SA after 10 races in past year.

I love Blind Luck and its like a holiday to me anytime my favorites are running.

I'm backing Ask the Moon tentatively. I'm a layer handicapper and I'm not that hung up on the exact finish, but I am a value bettor and I'm thinking Ask the Moon would provide good value to the P3 and the Superfecta I'll assemble if she finishes on top. She comes in off a 10 furlong effort at SAR at the end of the meet, coming off a very impressive Ruffian Grade 1 win at the beginning of the Saratoga festivities. The six year old has really responded to Trainer Wolfson since coming to his barn and for a horse that was claimed for $75K not five months ago, what a return she's made for her new connections that believed in her. Maybe she steps back after those exerting efforts, again "Why is she here and where is she in her form cycle?" We'll find out.

Zazu seems primed for the second half of the race year: 3 of 3 in the money at SA, 3 of 4 in the money at the distance, 3 of 4 on fast dirt and 6 of 6 in the money in 2011. She's working bullets at 6f in 1:11 2/5ths.

Ultra Blend? Nothing fancy, just reliable. She is an incredible 12 of 12 in the money from 2010 through 2011. No reason to believe she won't fire into the top four today.

The Goodwood Stakes is always a race the Turk looks forward to, except when it was run on the fake dirt and i just didn't care much about it, but its back on dirt and I'm thrilled. I expected to see more wins for trainer Baffert in the Goodwood but unless I miscounted he has two, including last years at Hollywood with Richard's Kid. He had a little horse called Silver Charm that did pretty good in this race too! I like his chances to make it three wins with both Coil and Game On Dude in the gate.

The Haskell winner Coil was abysmal in the Travers. I just have to let that go and I'm expecting a bounce back but as a three year old I'll defer to his older stable mate, Game On Dude: The Big Cap winner is 5 of 6 in the money in 2011, his only out the money finish being his last effort, the Pacific Classic at Del Mar where he stalked and couldn't finish. That was a deeper and more classy group than is running here and I think he looks pretty good in this spot.

With Acclimation defecting off the dirt, a wise choice in my opinion, I like the combo of Miss Match, the fields lone lady, and the veteran Awesome Gem to press for the top four. Miss Match won at the distance on this surface, or at least what was this surface before it was tinkered with again, back in March, a big upset of Switch. The Little Turk is on Awesome Gem today, so be warned. I'm curious about Mandella's Preamble. the distance may be an issue but 3 wins in 3 starts on dirt and 3 of 4 at Santa Anita who has Espinoza up. Mandella/Espinoza combine for 26% winners at SA on 27 starts over past year.

I'll keep the P3 reasonably covered without going overboard. After handicapping it appears that these are more fan races than betting opportunities, but that said, we've set the table, we will serve dinner!

The allowance race, an N1X, is a bettors black hole often. I'm a big fan of Allowance racing though, its like the gateway between graded stakes, my typical domain, and the lower depths. You have a greater mix of classes, rising and falling, and you really have to ask the question "why are they here" when you handicap these races. The "Super Trainers" and the "Super Jocks" padded those gaudy stats against lesser foes in these events, but if you can hop off of "bad money magnets" and find value, these races can offer just beautiful payouts. I like Carla Gaines Irish Art and Make Me Believe. I have no idea how the bettors will respond to these runners so I've built my base handicap but my betting will be influenced by the tote board.

The Yellow Ribbon is like hair of the dog, in case you haven't had enough, dive in again. Cambina (Ire) seems primed by Trainer Jeff Bonde. a very strong late run by the 3 YO in the 9 furlong Del Mar Oaks, up against older ladies here, she's trained sharply and I like the 10 panel win two efforts back in the American Oaks at HOL.

Speaking of Carla Gaines runners, Malibu Pier is a Turk favorite. a two time Grade 2 winner, 2 wins at 10 furlongs, 7 of 9 in the money on turf and a stalker that will at least be in the action the last few hops to the wire.

Cozi Rosie comes in for trainer Sadler who is 22% of 30-60 day breaks. Distance may be a concern here, winless in two tries, (but two Places) for the the four year old daughter of Pleasantly Perfect (now that was a horse!) 7 of 8 in the money on turf.

This is a fun race! You got Harmonious, Turning Top (Ire) , City to City and Dubawi Heights (GB) all ready to pounce if any ofthe above falter. Really good stuff here.

Have fun friends. Turk Out!