Post Race Results for the Marshua's River Stakes and a Week 2 Update on the 52 Bets for the 52 Weeks of 2020 Series

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  Whenever I see images like the one here, I think of the emotions of the horse player.  When I use to be a more frequent, albeit never irresponsible,  gambler, I would ride that roller coaster of emotion race to race, the highs, the lows, the incredulity, the shame, the guilt, the euphoria, wash, rinse repeat.  That's the game.

I'm not going to tell you people don't make a living a professional gamblers, I know a few, but I am going to tell you, that's no way to live.  It's straining, it's stressful, its downright soul crushing to ride that wave and risk it all, easier when its just you, harder when a little one depends on you for everything.  The Turk took money out of the game years ago.  I have a pot, but my race track investments are limited.  I love to handicap, but it's been many years since I gambled with any materiality.    I work a job that requires seriousness and professionalism, and above all else, fiduciary integrity.  Nothing shouts louder "don't tryst me with money" than being the office horse player.  The real reason I went cold turkey is I found I just enjoyed the game more without the stress of money, and I kept statistics.  Stats, that dirty little word that gives quantifiable data to you about how the game is really treating you.  Sometimes people will ask The 'Ol Turk why the Morning Line odds don't add up to 100%.  These aren't horse players mind you, just normal people.  The easiest and most honest answer for me is that the 30% or so above 100% those odds add up to is the the difference between the game making a living or you making a living.  The takeout is just too damn high and it leaves very little room for error in gambling.  With the takeout, and Stats, I realized I was skilled enough as a handicapper to carve out a positive ROI, but I had to play and play alot.  Not for me.  So I used the stats to hone in on where my best ROI came from.  It was obvious to me, the low hanging fruit, wasn't what I was good at, but what I was taking a killing on.  I was downright atrocious on the Triple Crown prep races and even worse on 2 YOs.  I cut those races out of my betting palate.  Next, I realized I was really bad on 1 1/2 mile distances any surface as well as 6.5F or less any surfaces.  I cut those out.  I was really poor at a few tracks and eliminated those.  The exercise showed me what I was good at handicapping, but the corollary was I found it also showed me what about horse racing I liked the most: 4 YO and Up, primarily Turf racing.  My ROI is pretty good, good enough to bet consistently, not good enough to bet Little Turk's tuition.

I conceived this year's blog theme to be 52 Bets in 52 Weeks, a small sample size of what a handicapper with over 35 years experience can do and document it, good bad or ugly.  So far so good as both week's Base Handicaps produced winning results.  While I did not place an actual bet in Week 1, I did yesterday.  Why?  I thought the race was an honest to goodness no brainer.  7 horse field, no scratches, three horse were given no chance by me nor did they get a chance on the tote board.  The only downside? The top four were all bet down pretty hard, especially the winner. With a little luck the Win-Place are reversed and the 4-1 finishes over the 2-1, but that's OK.  I bet and bet big when I see no brainer's, $10 exacta for $120.  Now, my eye after 35 years doing this will or may be different than yours, so in the words of Han Solo, don't get cocky kid and start to see no brainer's everywhere.

Through two Weeks, The Turk has won $71.20 net of my total investment of $152 with a return on investment of 136%.  Don't get use to it.  I'm still predicting that I'll take a big pile of twenty's and turn it into a smaller pile of twenty's when 2020 is concluded, but also remember the sample size of  52 is pretty small.  Actual bets will always be supported by records and when I don't make actual bets we will use the theoretical ones made in the Blog Post as well a  $2 Exacta based on my Base Handicap described in the footnotes of my chart below.

The 'Ol Turk's Twin Spire Account

I'll be back this week with more Turf running from the handicap division.  Turk out!

Post Race Results: The Dr. James Penny G3 at Parx

Dr. Penny G3 at PARX

Boom goes the dynamite. The Turk doesn't brag, there is no bravado in my tweets or posts. The Turk doesn't profit in anyway from the blog. I do this because I'm a long time handicapper who works a high pressure job and this is my golf, my Suduko, my Farmville, my "...whatever get's you through the night."

I had no expectations for today's race. I handicapped it, I bet it and wow: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta. Check Check Check. I almost didn't bet it with two scratches, but I was all dressed up and ready to go and I did it.

The Turk is off for a well earned cigar.  Thanks for reading!

The Nomination Is In: The 145th Belmont Stakes Grade 1

The Belmont: A Cecil B. Demile production

Who is going to win the Belmont Turk?  I don't know!  I handicap.  Handicapping is controlling variables and assigning percentages to the horses  and hoping they run on the track as they appear on paper.  Throw all that crap out the window today:  a very wet racetrack, a big field, and a crazy distance where the pace through the first mile or so very well will decide who will be in contention in the last 1/8 of a mile. 

It is unfortunate that the weather has been so bad, as the race on paper, the analysis of the past performances, is compelling stuff.  The rain should be gone, but the damage is done with the track listed as muddy currently. The track drains well and they will work it quite a bit, so I'm not going to worry too much about it and just build the bets the way I see them.

Which leads me to my next problem:  The way I see it is murky.  A gentleman I work with will often refer to overstaffed efforts as a "Cecil B. Demile" production, think a cast of thousands, epic in scope.  14 tired horses at 10 panels can often make for shear madness at 12 panels. 

I started my handicapping today with trying to identify some toss horses.  My preconceived Superfecta bet strategy is to single a winner and have a cast of thousands beneath, but I'd like to toss at least four out of the boat. 

Frac Daddy/1: Low Wet Track Tominson and never won past 1 1/16 miles.  have to go back to November 2012 for last win.

Giant Finish/4:  Low on the Class Scale, slow on the Beyer Scale, two wins in NYS restricted races.

Midnight Taboo/8: Lightly raced Repole/Pletcher combination, seems to be vanity entry.

Vyjack/11:  I like this horse, but this is gambling not Facebook Horse "Like" personality contests.  Very poor Kentucky Derby effort off a pretty good Wood Memorial.  Tough call, but I need to make some tough calls. 

Let's get it on!



My view of the field is that Orb is the best horse in the gate.  You have never, ever, read the Turk whining after a race about the trip, I don't indulge in such loser talk, but Orb didn't have a great ground saving run, or better put, ground saving but slowed.



I'm going to build some sensible sized Superfecta and Exacta bets around Orb singled on top and use the Cecil B. Demile cast of thousands wheeled underneath him in the Superfecta.  In the Exacta I'm only interested in value so my $14 bet may be adjust slightly depending on tote board odds at 6:40 ET. 

Have fun friends.  The Turk isn't that into the Belmont quite frankly, I'm not sure why, but I won't fake horse fan excitement.  The turf races are what I really enjoy on Belmont day but I'll pass because of the conditions.  Hollywood Park has a few nice turf races today and hopefully I have profits waiting out West. 

Mrs. Turk is betting Golden Soul and Little Turk thinks a "Filly in the Belmont" is worth taking. 

Turk Out!