The Nomination Is In: The Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and Recapping Shoemaker Mile

Delahaye-Barbara D. Livingston

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in handicapping older horses running over routes of grass, and I typically formulate exact bets around them. 

 Last week I talked about the struggles I've had this year with my work, and how it was affecting my handicapping. I've taken some time over the last few weeks to really concentrate on rediscovering a balance in my work-life balance. It will never be 50-50, that's just not how I approach my profession, but I've learned I can only sustain 90-10 for so long, and for me I've been clipping along at that rate for seven months, dating back to November 2023. I realized if I didn't take steps to clear my head and take balance back (the job won't give, only takes) I would burnout and be broken. Handicapping is a part of the balance. It doesn't seem like much, but hours go into one of these blog posts. I watch video, I update my databases, I pour over paste performances and race charts. A gambler can't do this, it's too much time. A track handicapper can't do this, it takes too much time. It gives me an edge, but low volume. Regardless, the mental escape it gives me is worth every second and takes nothing away from work. 

There was a time when I was wildly high volume, banging out whole cards at a time.  I respect that, but it wasn't for me.  I like to engage on one isolated segment of the sport, in this case, Turf racing older horses, primarily routes, because it allows a few things I enjoy:  larger fields, less focus than dirt which allows greater overlay potential, and just as important, identifying underlays, and then finally, really good older horses I can spend several years following.  I still think one of the greatest problems in our sport is the premature retirement to the breeding shed, denying casual fans a chance to get excited about known quantities.   I generally leave the "state of horse racing" stuff to people much more knowledgeable than me, but that's the Turk's two cents.  

So recapping, I'm placing an effort on handicapping each weekend a turf route that interests me.  Lets get after today's focus, the grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs.  The weather should be dry and warm.  Pay attention to track conditions and scratches and changes here. 

The Mint Julep G3; 1 1/16 Mile Firm Turf; Santa Anita  

   

The Turk never looks at Morning Lines as a tool for handicapping when I'm blogging.  I only look at the morning line after the handicap is complete and I'm building my fair odds assessment.  I had the top three exactly as Daily Race Form did.  Always pay attention to the tote board to get a feel for where the action is headed as post time approaches.  Remember, handicapping and bet construction are two very different things.  I'm not interested in building an exacta with a 2-1 over a 9-2 and neither should you.  Winning battles and losing wars is where that approach will get you.  When I first starting writing my blog, I struggled with the perception that if I wasn't "right" in my handicap, I'd lose credibility.  No, nailing $3 dollar will pays is not something to aspire for.  I'd rather lose six out of 10 races to make those four wins meaningful.  It doesn't often work out like that, but you get the idea.  I don't encourage normal fans to bet beyond what they are prepared to lose. The game is stacked against you.  The morning line odds added up to 129%.  I've routinely seen them up to 135%.  That's the track take, parimutuel at work, getting bigger and bigger as the handle slips and overhead and inflation rising.  Adjusting back to fair line odds is your best chance to identify those gems.  Sadly, I don't think I did here today.

So what to do with all of this?  The best two horses in my opinion are early speed, Delahaye and Heavenly Sunday.  Chad Brown's (23% turf winner, 20% graded stakes) Delahaye is 3 for 3 at the distance, 4 of 5 Turf races has hit the exacta.  Adding a 1/16 of a mile.  $550,000 price tag at Auction, by far the class of the race.  Expect this 2-1 to be bet down, maybe even to 6-5.  In this case I want that.  I have to make a choice:  Who is the best late speed?  my identified choices are:  Excellent Question (Walsh saddles I. Ortiz-21% at CD) but isn't very classy; Fuente Ovejuna (GB) with Walsh/Dettori Up, 1 win in 9 starts at this distance; Henrietta Topham, 6 YO, modest connections but training sharp, first race back since October 2023; Immensitude (Fr) with conditioner Bill Mott, and Prat up, goes in second start of career in North America.  Remember, all of these options have fur on them, if they didn't they would be overvalued as well.

I'm going to put Immensitude/6 OVER Heavenly Sunday/8 and Excellent Question/5.  Delahaye will get added to the ticket depending on the tote board.

This is a $2 bet for either $4 or $6.  

Finally, last week's handicap (I didn't bet) was the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.  I needed to get my handicapping chops working again. 

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 27May 2024 Santa Anita Park; 1 mile Firm Turf

The Nomination Is In: The Shoemaker Mile G1 at Santa Anita

 

Bill and Wilt

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  I'm taking the opportunity on Memorial Day to do what has been rare for me this year, write.  The Turk doesn't like to talk about work too much, but I've been very busy.  On December 31st one of facilities suffered an operational error, a spill of hazardous liquid.  It should have never happened, but it did.  Every process and procedure we had in place failed us.  When you face failure you can recoil from it or go at it head on.  It's a thought that is on my mind this Memorial Day, the idea of the bravest soldiers running towards gunfire and not away from it.  What I do isn't life or death like those brave souls who lost their lives and whom we remember today,  but it still affects me.  It's almost 5 full months since the event, things are mostly under control now, and the Turk who has worked almost every day for five months straight, is taking the opportunity today to enjoy his favorite sport, run over grass, and to forget, even if just for a little while, the real world at the door.

Another person who had to face the real world almost from the time he was born is Bill Shoemaker, whom today's Shoemaker Mile G1 is named after. Born so small, there was serious fear he would survive.  Kept warm in a shoebox, Bill used the tools that God gave him to amass 8,833 wins.  Think about that another way: Santa Anita has 11 races today.  If the Great Race Place ran everyday, for 803 days straight, he would win every race every day to equal that mark.  That just floors me.  11 Triple Crown Wins and a Breeders' Cup Classic.  Hall of Fame 1958!  Paralyzed from the neck down in a car crash, he continued his life, training horses and writing pulp fiction with Dick Francis.  I think we have seen the apex of horse racing within our cultural horizon.  It's a sport that just doesn't appeal to the youth of America, not even recent Triple Crown's could reverse the damage done.  It's too bad really, but each generation chooses what it cares about and the days of a jock like Willie Shoemaker being at the same cultural relevance as other celebrities of our day is over.  Enjoy it while it still exists.  

Let's Get After this!

The weather looks gorgeousweather looks gorgeous in Arcadia today so expect a firm turf course.  As of right now there are no scratches or changes but you can keep your eyes herehere.  

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

I'm not going to prattle on too much about this one.  Let's look at De Jour last time out.  Also keep your eye on Easter and Goliad.  

The Kilroe Mile G1;  3 March 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf.  

Now Johannes, War At Sea, Irideo and Air Force Red (easier company in the G3)

The American G3; 4 April 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf 

Baffert saddles De Jour, not someone I think of on turf, has Prat up and they are 25% winners in 20 tries at SA.  Baffert himself is a 10% winner on turf.  

Lots of early speed in this one.  I'm just going to be watching as I get back into the swing of my handicapping.  I've been handicapping for nearly 40 years, yet I still have to dust off and get into a rhythm, which I know I'm not currently in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Eddie Reed Grade 2

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on older horses running over a route of grass, with exacta bet constructions.  I choose not to play a rather soggy day our East, and while I was interested in The Bowling Green at Saratoga, my concern for the turf conditions made up my mind for me.  Del Mar's Eddie Reed G2 is an interesting nine horse field.  My first time through the PP's and I didn't have a single horse that I thought deserved chalk or even a Turk rating of A.  700 plus handicaps blogged over 15 years and I don't remember a Grade 2  I was this torn on.  It's not that the field is bereft of good horses, and in fact Turk favorites Masteroffoxhounds and Dicey Mo Chara are in the field, just little excited me about current form of any of the runners.  We'll get to that.  I also don't want to sound like I'm complaining in any way, this is what I like: Big Field, Light Chalk, Chaos.  All those things can equal big rewards.  

Experience helps.  I approach every race with the same general mindset and I handicap in a very consistent manner.  A review of Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Recency, J/T stats, Track, Surface and Pace.  My red ink squiggles mean something to me, may not mean anything to you, but that's fine.  I never look at Morning Lines before settling on my handicap.  I found that they biased me, especially in my published handicaps.  I've matured as a handicapper to never let someone else's opinion to influence me.  I've been handicapping for over 35 years, I'm at the peak of my game, and it's this mindset that helps me identify underlays and overlays.  The problem with bet construction this far in advance of the race is the lack of live odds to fine tune my thinking.  I do that, I'm just sensitive to changing my bets radically from what I blog.  A bald, middle aged nerd is nothing without credibility.  

Speaking of Saratoga, Turk will be in the (club)house next Saturday.  It's been a loonnng time.   Let's get after it.

The Eddie Reed G2; 1 1/8 Miles over Turf for 3 YO and Up.

Many runners here enter off The G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita 2 months earlier.  

Mackinnon last time out a beaten 4th at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf OC $80K 3 BEL 4 July.

Dicey Mo Chara, Masterofforhounds and Gold Phoenix ran in a pace slog Charles Whittingham G2  at 1 1./4 Miles at Santa Anita 8 April 2023.  Gold Phoenix came back 29 May in the Shoemaker Mile and ran poorly cutting back two panels.  Dicey Mo Chara has run back twice, running three graded stakes in a 6 week period.  Masteroffoxhounds took a break to freshen and has been working sharply for D'Amato since late June.  

There was a time last year when I thought Count Again at 7 YO was the best Turf Miler in the US. First race since last year's Shoemaker Mile.  What form?  Who knows what the 8 YO has left.  Trainer D'Amato has taken 100 horses over the past year back from a +180 day layoff and has won 21 times. 

D'Amato has four going in this race. Does anyone think that's healthy for racing?  

So what top do with this?

I'm going to $2 Exacta wheel Mackinnon OVER Dicey Mo Chara, Masteroffoxhounds, Cabo Spirit, Count Again and possibly Handy Dandy or Balnikhov, either a $10 or $12 dollar bet that should pop a good payout.  It's far from an iron pipe lock, but this is gambling.  I like Doug O'Neill running the 4 YO son of American Pharoah back in under four weeks for his 2nd off a long layoff.  I like his early speed and I think returning to firm turf may expose a new level of top speed at the end.  Speculative. 

A $2 Win bet on Handy Dandy isn't out the question either.  5 of 6 Win/Place at Del Mar, 8 of 13 W/P over Turf.  Running back 3 weeks after a solid Allowance Mile win. Value.  

Turk Out!

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park and a Post Race Analysis of Graded Stakes Grab Bag

The Turk likes to take time to celebrate the little steps along the long road of life and The Turk and Little Turk have reached a milestone, 400 Blog Posts.

In the big picture those 400 Blog Posts didn't add anything to society but they did do wonderful things for me personally: I've met some truly interesting people and I have acquaintances and friends I can meet at all the major tracks around the country when I'm looking to enjoy a social moment and not just a hard core degenerate betting experience. Before the blog, before Facebook, Twitter, the web, I was alone in the horse racing experience, buying the form and placing my bets. The world spilled wide open and it was satori to realize that like minded people all over the country existed. The Turk and the Little Turk started as a simple outlet to post the 3H's: Horses, handicapping and our personal hijinks's. We've kept our simple approach and we have no intention of being anything other than what we currently are.

Thank you all for reading!

I enjoyed the smorgasbord of racing I handicapped yesterday, even if after I handicapped I felt that it was a pretty uninspiring collection of betting races, as the fields were a bit small and, quite honestly, I had no feel for a few of them. The best handicap and potentially the best bet I would have made was the Superfecta on the United Nations, powered by Teaks North finishing on top.

I'm in full blown 4th of July weekend relaxation mode; I always thought this would be the best weekend for the Millions preview at Arlington but the folks there think differently. As much as I love to handicap the grass at Arlington, I pretty much have had extremely mixed results handicapping the fake dirt there over the past two years. Today I take a swing at The Chicago Handicap, a seven furlong affair for Fillies and Mares, with my only real objective being to play the card and get a feel for the surface again.

Let's recap yesterday briefly and get to today's Chicago Handicap.



The Dwyer



The Suburban Handicap



The Shoemaker Mile



The Triple Bend Handicap



Everyone should have their own style of handicapping and betting; mine is to handicap, without morning lines or any pre race hype news articles, and then build a bet strategy after that. One downside is I often handicap races that have little to offer as betting opportunities to make cash at, but if you study the Past Performances, the Race Chart and the video, the effort is seldom wasted. Dominus was allowed to go through easy fractions in a yawner of a Dwyer. We wondered aloud where the pace would come from pre race and it never really came. With the scratch of Rocking Out the field dropped to six, the super option went away and this became a race to watch and keep the wallet in the pocket. We did have Adios Charlie finishing in Place. I keep stats for myself, which I don't bore you folks with, of my base handicaps that are contrarian to heavy chalk. Even without betting I take something away from this race and we move along.

In Race 10, The Suburban Handicap, I must admit that this field left me perplexed. In the history of my 400 blog postings I'm not sure I ever put up a handicap where I didn't toss someone, anyone. I had no intention of betting this race and I didn't and I'm glad as I would have never bet Flat Out. I was impressed by Hymn Book, who I discounted, but the bettors didn't, off the strong last race off the turf effort beating I Want Revenge (which use to mean something, but I am confused by what distance Rodman is best suited for because I dunno.

There is no bragging, ever, from the Turk. I keep to a strong code and bragging is prohibited. The closest I may ever come to bragging will be to describe what i do well as a handicapper. The United Nations is the text book superfecta win I assemble pretty regularly. A nice 10 horse field with a very clear line between who will be in the top 5 and who wouldn't be. Teaks North past performance had a bullet handride 4f :47 effort and a Grade 3 96 Beyer win effort at Monmouth on June 12th. I disliked the lack of wins at the distance but I made note of the 3 of 3 on Monmouth turf and 4 wins in nine tries on Turf. Nice win but I expected a top four finish, not exactly a win spot. The others just slotted in and the super paid $377. I call those workmanlike, not sexy.

The two Hollywood Park races I passed on as well and we'll just leave it to the video to tell those stories.

I handicap many more races than I could possibly blog. I'll handicap the whole Arlington card today and I'll start handicapping Arlington more over the next several weeks as I target Millions Preview Day and Millions Day. A fairly even collection of fillies and mares will contest today's Chicago Handicap. Florida Bred Hooh Why is is lifetime money winner as well as the high Beyer on fake dirt. The 5 Yo mare comes in off an N3X win at 7f on the AP fake stuff in mid June, but some 25 Beyer points lower than her lifetime best. Tidal Pool brings some name recognition and a 0-60 Graded Stakes streak in for D. Wayne Lukas. Dr. Zic competes almost exclusively in graded stakes action but doesn't win much; a nice Grade I at KEE in April 2010 seems along time ago now. Devil By Design is coming off a very long layoff, something Bill Mott wins 16% of the time. The 5 YO Medeglia d'Oro daughter hasn't done much in 11 months. La Rocca is with trainer Michael Stidham for the first time, a 22% win angle but he puts Martinez and his 10% win rate instead of Napravnik and her 21% win clip, whom he has up on his other entrant, Lookn Even Finer, who switches from turf/synth at a 24% clip and 23% winner off the fillies last race win. the former claimer is starting to grow on me.

Who did I miss? Illinois Bred Home's the Best ran a nice 93 Beyer at 1 1/8 miles over the fake AP dirt in late May and Hot Hot Mama doesn't have much but her name to excite me.

I handicapped and I'll watch to see how it all flops out. Have a good holiday weekend.

Turk Out!