Post Race Review with Video of Travers Stake Day

Drefong/Taylor Ejdys/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga didn't disappoint anymore than McGregor/Mayweather did. While I love the brash Irishman, I could never root for the foreign invader over the American.  You have to sort of hold your nose about both of their transgressions in life, but for my money, boxing, when its done right, is every bit the best sport on the planet next to horse racing.  How far outside of conventional thinking am I?  I know....

One thing I've always loved about the horses is they have no transgressions.  These athletes live to perform, give us all they have, and hopefully someone with ethics cares for them until they pass, giving them as best a life as they can have after the track.

I choose Drefong for my picture today as my misjudgment of him was my biggest error in a very successful betting day where I turned a 42% profit on my investment capital.  I respected the champion sprinter very much but I didn't like the gate position and severely underestimated his ability to fly out of that gate and strike the lead before the first turn.  I thought Diving Rod's positioning would deliver the upset but it wasn't to be.  Luckily I covered him in the horizontals.  I didn't play it but Drefong was my only miss in my theoretical Pick 6 that would have paid $7,967.  It was right there for the taking but if you play Pick 6 enough you learn you just have to move on from the misses.

The Twin Spires results tell the tale of my day that started slow and really turned with Races 9-10-11 and 12.

Race 6: The Personal Ensign Grade 1




Race 7: The Ballerina Stakes Grade 1




Race 8: The H. Allen Jerkens Grade 1




Race 9: The Forego Grade 1




Race 10: The Sword Dancer Grade 1




Race 11: Travers Stakes Grade 1




Race 12: The Ballston Spa Grade 2




Final Takeaways:

• Songbird was wildly overplayed. She's a great champion, but the Delaware Handicap was a so-so race Forever Unbridled is better than anyone that was in that race,   I started the day with a defensive $10 win bet on Forever Unbridled, the odds on Songbird were too low.  
• I really underestimated Highway Star.  I had a boxed exacta that his game Place obliterated. She's been training well, and had a sloppy track 96 Beyer at Belmont but I just don't see it on paper.  I was fooled.  My first indication was she was 9-2 just before Post, an 18% win percentage, where I had her at 1%.  Ugh.  
• I liked Takaful more than I liked Practical Joke, but I thought they'd both have a chance to win and the close finish didn't disappoint or surprise. I rightly shaded down American Anthem but over estimated Coal Front.  I won an exacta that lost money-a gambling mistake I should not have made.  
• I've already explained my Drefong mishap in The Forego.  
• I had Sadler's Joy prerace to win The Sword Dancer.  This race seemed so obvious.  I placed my only Trifecta bet of the day and won vertically $34 dollars on a Tri and Exacta.  Wished I'd played more!  I didn't buy the Idaho(Ire) hype. 
• I had West Coast as my co-favorite to win the Travers with Irap.  I had Gunnevera at the bottom of my group that could Place, seven deep, but I can't say I was that high on him.  
• I went into Race 12 with a Will Pay if Roco Rojo (Ire) won of $536 in the Pick 3.  That said, I thought Antonoe would finally upset her older rival, but it wasn't to be.
• I finished with two pick 3 wins and an entertaining afternoon.  

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination In In: Travers Day Grand Slam Race 9-10-11-12

Mind Your Biscuits/NYRA

Welcome Friends to the Second Edition of the Turk and the Little Turk on Travers Day 2017.  The first post of the day focused on Races 6-8-8 while this post is the Grand Slam of races 9-10-11 and 12.

The Turk isn't a big on historical context. I'm a handicapper, a race fan, but I'm not one of the self important  horse racing elites who feel the need to give you  share with you their opinion of which historical runner was better than the other.

I will go out on a limb and say that Mind Your Biscuits is the second most successful NY State Bred of the past 15 years since Funny Cide.  I don't think that will be too controversial.

Race 9 starts a Pick 4 Grand Slam and concludes the card for me.

Let's Get After it!



Race 9 also starts a P3 (9-10-11) as well as the Grand Slam (9-10-11-12) while Race 10 Starts a P3 (10-11-12) as well and I'll be playing horizontally as well as vertically.  I'm going to end my blogging for the day with just a quick preview of the P4/Grand Slam Horizontal that starts off Race 9.




I'll be focused on something similar to these base handicap/bet constructions.  It's time for the Ol' Turk to put down the blog and settle into racing.  We'll talk about the races and the racers themselves more in detail with video in the post race posts.

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis of Eddie Reed at Del Mar and Diana at Saratoga

Lady Eli up to win The Diana

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Analysis.

Handicapping for these two races was not complicated and in many ways very similar.  Both had what should have been overwhelming favorites taking on slightly lesser competition.  The Chalks went into the gate at $0.95 to $1 for Lady Eli and $0.70 to $1 for Ashleyluvssugar.  It was tee'd up for the classic single the heavy chalk and find value in Place and Show -OR- Beat the favorite and watch the payouts go big (See Arrogate in the San Diego).  Speaking of Arrogate, The Turk said pre-race he really hates the returning from Dubai first race back angle.  I find it's almost as bad (with smaller sample size) than the first race back after Breeder's Cup.  These big events take a toll.

I said Lady Eli would win that race 90 out of 100 times.  I still believe that.  I said Lady Eli, Antonoe, Dickerson and Quidora would be 1-4 on the tote board and they were.  My handicap could have easily netted a $22.20 exacta and $66.50 Trifecta.

It's so rare to see a horse break through the gate and then run well.  Lady Eli really impressed me today.  I'll be curious where Antonoe is pointed next as I'm still high on the physically big filly.

In the Eddie Reed, my real coup was where I rated Mr. Roary.  I thought he'd be Place or Show and he was, while the betting public had her sixth out of 7th.  It's that sort of edge that separates you from the public and gives you an opportunity to make money in this game.   My handicap would have given you the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.  The $2 Superfecta paid $485.60.

Ashleyluvssugar is an inconsistent runner who Stevens usually gets the most out of.  Overbet, but the field didn't exactly lend itself to confidence in the other runners.  Hunt (Ire) and Mr. Roary should be added to virtual stables and kept tabs of.







Have fun with the races friends.  I'll be back with Tuesday's $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes from Fort Erie.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Diana Grade 1 at Saratoga

Lady Eli- Equisport Photos

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today about The Diana, a Grade 1 affair run over 1 1/8 miles of the Mellon turf course at Saratoga.

Keep your eye on the scratches, changes and track condition.  With a six horse field, one scratch would be one too many.  Weather doesn't seem to be an issue at the Spa until maybe Sunday.

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At Saratoga, when analyzing your Past Performances, a T in a circle represents a race run on the Mellon or outer turf course.

A T in a square box represents an inner turf event.

As with any two turf course configuration, inner turf races have very tight corners and its different racing dynamics.  Take that into account when judging cross over horses from one track to the other.  You'll also note visually why you won't see many shorter sprints on this turf course, as it's hard to configure without placing the starting gate right on the 1st corner.

Are you a Saratoga watcher, a Del Mar watcher or both or some other combination over the summer meets?  I love Saratoga even if my ROI's are lower at Saratoga than most other courses.  I lived in Saratoga during the 1986 race season and I walked to the track from my house on Jumel Place.  I could have bought the little house for $70,000 from my landlord, and it recently sold for $450,000. My ROI off the racetrack in Saratoga isn't any better!

As far as Del Mar,  I was very turned off by the former artificial surface.  It played horribly and I have yet to really come back.  It's not an East Coast/West Coast thing with me, in fact, as an East Coast Handicapper I use to play Santa Anita, Del Mar and Hollywood exclusively.   For me, I'm going to focus on Arlington Turf and Saratoga Turf and Dirt Routes, that's my summer plan.

Today's Diana is a six horse field with the mighty Lady Eli leading the way.  At $2.4 MM lifetime earnings, she towers over the rest of the field with 11 starts and 11 times in the money.  She's not unbeatable, and she will be bet hard and heavy on opening weekend,  Let's see if we can make a case against her.





Lady Eli has finished in the Win or Place spot in every race in her 11 race career.  That's multiple Grade 1 competition.  When you watch her a beaten nose in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita last year, how do you take anything away from her.





She followed that race up with a long break, a Place by a head in the Jenn Wiley  and then set a career high best Beyer of 104 in Gamely.  I think if this race is run 100 times she wins 90 of the 100 races.

Gamely Stakes Grade 1:  1 1/8 Mile Hillside start on Santa Anita Firm Turf




I look at the field and I wonder where pace pressure will come from.  I'm not sure it will and she may have the lead early and hold it.  I think that's the most likely scenario and from an overlay perspective, I'd have a hard time taking a position a against her, but the tote board will make that decision for me.  There are at least two legitimate candidates to beat her in this field.

Let's take a look at Antonoe and Dickerson:

Just a Game Stakes Grade 1:  1 Mile Firm Turf at Belmont



Great trip and ride by Castellano, taking the rail when the rail opened late.  This was not some paceless fake Grade 1.  Watch the stride, watch the power.  Impressive win for Antonoe.  Trainer Chad Brown has a very impressive stable this year, and with Antonoe and Ladi Eli, he has an embarrassment of riches.  I would expect Antonoe will take one run at Lady Eli but lets not expect that sort of gift trip every race.  You have to respect the speed she showed on that late run.  I'm really floored watching that.  

Dickerson is a flawed but very talented 5 YO Medaglia d'Oro mare.  5 wins in 7 career turf starts. Three straight wins this spring, all graded stakes over routes of grass.  Not a great trip in the Just A Game, sent outside late, willingly up for Show and one more hop away from Place.  If I get 9/2 or 5-1 I'll be happy.

Jenny Wiley Grade 1:  1 1/16 Miles on Firm Turf at Keeneland



Quidora (GB) has class, but her class won't win this.  She had a nice stalking trip in the Grade 2 New York but I didn't think she really got rolling until 1 3/16ths.

New York Stakes Grade 2: 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf at Belmont




She's cutting back 1/8 of a mile.  Watch her here over soft turf at 1 1/16 miles in a big field at Keeneland, the Grade 3 Valley View.



My Impression hasn't really made an impression on me, and I'm more impressed with her connections than anything she's done on the track.   Training nicely and coming in off an effort at PARX on July 4th,  winless in 4 starts in 2017 for Trainer McGaughey, with Ortiz up for owner Stuart Janney III.  The trainer/jockey were 21% together last SAR meet.  5 Wins in 13 turf starts. Unless things go really upside down its hard to imagine anything but a minor Exotic prize.

I've tossed 4 Year Old Harmonize.  You can't cover everyone, but Bill Mott is a hard one to just discount.  While today's field is small, this is a classy group, including this daughter of Scat Daddy.  It's hard to believe the Florida Derby and excellent sire Scat Daddy is gone, may he rest in peace.

Antonoe-NYRA Susie Raisher

So what do we do with this?  As I write this on Thursday night, I take stock of what I know:

The Turf should be firm.

The Course should be in good shape.

A six horse field with Harmonize and My Impression long shots and not very live.

I'd expect the tote board ranking will be Lady Eli, Antonoe, Dickerson, Quidora in that order.

I'm not sure where pace will come from.  This is a pretty similar group of running style horses.  Is it as simple as Lady Eli going gate to wire?  I think that's a strong possibility.  Who will take late run and who has best late turn of foot?  I like what I've seen in a limited body of work from Antonoe.  

I'm not sure what I'm going to bet yet, but whatever I do, I'm going to keep the risk/reward quotient realistic.

Have fun friends.  Do your own handicapping and bypass the tip sheets.

Turk Out!