Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Breeders' Cup Betting Targets and The Mile Grade 1

Is there another figure more synonymous with the Breeders' Cup Mile than Freddie Head? Five times this man stood in the winner's circle, twice as a jockey aboard Miesque and then the last three years as trainer of Goldikova, a mare requiring no introduction in the racing world.

The pre entries are in and the advanced past performances are available for next weekend two day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Where do you start? Well, that's a personal decision, but for me, I start at the betting menu. There are 15 Breeders' Cup races, 10 of which are Grade I events, as well as five juvenile races. That's quite a bit of handicapping to do. Then there is the weather wildcard. Will it rain, will the track be sealed, sloppy or fast? Will the turf be yielding, American style fast, or a bit soft like our Euro cousins like? Some of these questions you just can't answer one week out but what you can do is prepare.

Preparation for the Ol' Turk means identifying which races I intend to handicap, setting my betting budget, and coming up with a betting strategy. It also means doing some mundane things like getting my bet preparation worksheets together. I know that I don't process the tote board information by sight, I have to write it down 25 minutes to post and counting down to 8 minutes. I watch the trending as I jot down onto my pre printed worksheets the odds off the tote and I also have my pre printed slots where I write out my bets and what I expect the bet to cost. This may sound wildly anal, and most likely it is, but I take positive ROI seriously and this is my personal system of preparing my bets. I didn't mention handicapping; that's all done well in advance of planning the bets. I have my base handicap and I seldom stray from it, as the "think long, think wrong" axiom has proven true too many times in my history. I do my homework in the quiet of my kitchen and away from the bustle of the track and when I get to the track I can focus on the post parade and the tote board and not concern myself at all with handicapping.

My betting targets almost any time of the year involves Pick Three and Pick Fours; That said, I don't particularly like juvenile races, and the Juvenile Fillies on Friday and The Juvenile on Saturday are plum in the middle of Pick Fours. Another consideration in Breeders 'Cup races are the field sizes; I may need to go six deep to hit the Superfecta and the bets will be more expensive than I'd prefer. These two thoughts combined together make my decision easy; I'm skipping the horizontal bets next week and I'm going to stick to vertical targets, the Trifecta/Superfecta and the grand daddy of vertical betting, The Super High Five.

The Super High Five; There may only be one thing I daydream more about. It wasn't always this way. Earlier this year it wasn't even on my radar, that is until my Preakness post race analysis when I realized I had it cold. The bet paid almost $50,000, and I didn't place the bet. Ugh. I got some redemption on Arlington Millions Day when I won my first Super High Five Bet, and hitting it on Breeders' Cup weekend would be an accomplishment that I would treasure in my bettors resume.

The Super High Five is being offered for The Distaff (Ladies Classic)and the Classic.

My handicapping will be directed at the following;

The Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), The Filly and Mare Turf (G1), The Distaff (G1), The Dirt Mile (G1), The Turf (G1), The Mile (G1) and The Classic (G1). Seven races, five days of prep time left before I drive the 400 plus miles to Louisville. Let's get after it!

The Mile Grade 1 has thirteen pre-entrants and we'll study them all understanding some may not be in the starting gate next Saturday.

Byword (GB) is a five year old Juddmonte Farms runner trained by Andre Fabre.



3 wins in four ties at the distance and 7 wins in 14 starts over grass, 10 of 14 in the money. Winless in last two Grade 1 efforts, comes here off Grade 2 Qutar Prix Dollar.




Compliance Officer is trained by Bruce Brown for owner Thomas La Marca. The NY Bred 5 Year Old gelded son of Officer is 15 of 20 in the money on turf, 1 win in three starts at the turf mile, and has a career $409,000 earnings. Compliance Officer was claimed in May 2011 and has five straight wins but no graded stakes action.



Goldikova won't be mistaken for a NY State Bred. That said, he's a fine horse but this is a big step up.

Courageous Cat is the five year old son of Storm Cat, trained by Bill Mott. The chalk his last time out in the Woodbine Mile, nipped at the wire by Tullare the colt who's also entered here.



10 of 12 lifetime in the money over turf with six wins, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance with 3 wins and 2 places, 3 of 3 in 2011 in the money.

The Shoemaker Mile G1 July 2011



Trainer Mott wins 15% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layoffs and 20% of his 31-60 day layoffs. The horse appears to be training well.

What does Court Vision need to do to be retired? The Dale Roman's trained horse has had a rough 2011 and has only one win in last ten starts, the 2010 Woodbine Mile.

2 wins in 7 starts at the distance, winless in 4 tries at CD with a place and a show, including yielding turf Place by a neck in 2010 Turf Classic, losing to General Quarters.

I think it would take a reversal of fortune to see this old warrior in the top four.



Get Stormy is the 5 year old son of Stormy Atlantic and trained by Thomas Bush. The Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland includes Sidney's Candy and Gio Ponti.



10 wins in 25 turf starts and 8 wins/places out of 12 starts at the distance. 6 of 7 in the money in 2011 with back to back Grade 1 wins in April and May.

Here's the Baruch (G2) at SAR in August with Turallure over turf rated good. It's an extra furlong and the cut back may be good for him.



Gio Ponti; The six year old Christopher Clement trainee was struggling this year until winning the Shadwell Turf Mile in early October. A Place to Cape Blanco in the Arlington Millions, a Place to Cape Blanco in the Man O War in July at 1 3/8 miles, and a disappointing Show in the Manhattan. He went to Dubai and perhaps it just took him some time to recover. Unfortunately for Cape Blanco, he can't be here, I doubt Gio Ponti minds.

Clement wins 20% of his turf starts and 20% of his routes and Gio Ponti has earned over $6,000,000 lifetime. A real star.

Speaking of stars, Goldikova (Ire). An up and down year but her expectations are so high it's almost impossible for her to live up to them. Six grade one wins in last 10 starts, 14 wins in 19 tries at the distance, 19 of 19 at the distance in the money, 25 of 26 in the money over turf lifetime with 17 wins and $6,900,000 in earnings.

Qutar Prix de la Foret (G1) 2 October 2011; a head bob loss.



Just for fun, not much for homework purposes....



Jeranimo is the five year old son of Congaree. He's coming in for trainer Michael Bender(18% winner on 73 starts) off his career best Beyer in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) where he beat Mr. Commons, a race that I cannot find embeddable video for.

One win in three tries at a turf mile. 3 wins on Turf in 8 starts, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, 1 win in 7 starts in 2011. Most of the year, rather unimpressive. Here in the One Mile Arcadia (G2) he took a big late run to get up for Show.



He never fired in his next start, The Inglewood (G3), but came out of that and a well beaten Place in the G1 Eddie Read at 9 panels. Acclimation ran quite a race and Caracortado hasn't been impressive in this series but I digress.



Out of the Eddie Read, a dismal Pacific Classic (G1)and then the Oak Tree Mile. He's in much deeper waters here with his career $660,000 and six career wins in 22starts.

Mr. Commons would be oddly placed here if he starts; the 3 year old colt biggest win was a in a restricted stakes race, the Oceanside $112K. Was the beaten chalk to Jeranimo in the Oak Tree Mile. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with 2 wins, 1 win in 3 starts at the distance, 6 of 7 in the money in 2011. Started in the Preakness but didn't fire and also started Santa Anita Derby.

Very big step up to go here.

Sidney's Candy will be making his sixth start of 2011 and his fourth with Trainer Pletcher. His last race was the previously discussed Shadwell Turf Mile. Before that was a dud of a 7F race, the Forego, over dirt (great move...wished I was smart).



Just before that a good turf race, the Fourstar Dave (G2); Look for the grey, Turallure. :50 2/5ths opening 1/2 mile, ugh.



No wins in 3 starts at the distance over turf. 2 turf wins in 5 starts. He set the pace in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile before fading. Mixed feelings, liked him more in Sadler's barn, seems like he wasn't managed very dynamically for WinStar.

Strong Suit is trained by Richard Hannon for Qatar Bloodstock Ltd. The three year old son of Rahy campaigns in Europe and comes in off two Grade 2 wins at 7 furlongs, a straight and a right hander, over good turf. Three wins in last four. No left turn courses so far and only one try at 8 panels, the Grade 1 Prix Jean Prat, a show finish.





8 of 9 in the money over turf but winless at the distance and only one try. Are American turf runners that disrespected that its worth the airfare to send Strong Suit over? Well, respect is earned on the track.

Turallure has shown up in many videos here, impressive in almost all. Along with Get Stormy and Goldikova, only wins in the field at Churchill Downs. Training sharply at Keeneland. The 4 year old son of Wando has shown a very wicked late turn of foot for trainer Charles Lopresti. 2 wins at the distance in three starts and 9 of 11 in the money over grass.

And finally, Zoffany (Ire), Aidan O'Brien's 3 year old Dansili colt. No wins in three starts at the distance, with 2 Places. 9 of 12 in the money over turf with 5 wins. Never in contention was the running line in the Shadwell Turf Mile. His last euro effort, Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) in August at 6.5 furlongs he was trounced. Last win was in August 2010, G1 Phoenix Stakes at six panels.

His claim to fame was staying close to Frankel in the St. James Stakes (G1) in June.



My inital thoughts are:

A Group: Turallure, Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Courageous Cat

B Group: Byword (GB) , Jeranimo, Sidney's Candy

C Group: Strong Suit, Zoffany (Ire) , Get Stormy (B?)

D Group: Court Vision, Compliance Officer, Mr. Commons (C?)

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 6, 2010: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile as well as final Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The Turk needed a 600 mile ride and a full day and a half to reflect on the events I witnessed at the Breeders' Cup. I offer my unvarnished opinion on Life at Ten and Workforce after I work through my post race analysis of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile which I handicapped for the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner. For those who pay attention to that stuff, my superfecta bet would have netted $535.20 and grossed $857.20 if bet exactly the way I laid out on my Thursday posting. As my regular readers know, I don't advocate ever betting anyone blind; Handicapping is the fun, don't deny yourself that opportunity.

Anyway, it was an impressive showing for Uncle Mo. I had Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova rated even going into the race but it was pretty clear at this point in their careers Uncle Mo is superior. With power and professional fractions, Uncle Mo struck the lead and gave the most empathic statement of the weekend.

The most disappointing run of the race for me was Jaycito, who I thought was the best of the synthetic runners transitioning to dirt. I also had J.P's Gusto and J.B.'s Thunder reversed in terms of who would do better on the dirt. What I did well was identify that the chalk was the real deal and I didn't oversell Biondetti, Rouge Romance or Jaycito, which seemed to be fashionable contrarian views. Take the time to watch Jaycito: Clearly not liking dirt in his face, Mike Smith took him way wide and at the top of the stretch brought him back to the rail and he was stretching out nice at the end. He's got a lot to prove on dirt but watch him when he returns to the fake stuff.







Handicapping for exotics is all about "slotting" where the horses will end up within the field. In this race it was identifying that there was a talent gap between 1/2 and the rest of the field and that talent gap was on display. You can still make money betting chalk, as my handicap and bet results prove, but it's a dangerous game friends and you really should walk before you run.

Did you watch how powerful Uncle Mo looked as he pulled away in the final 1/16 of a mile. Power. Speed. I wish we'd get a good ol' fashioned 3 YO campaign where he'd race in January, February, March, the Wood Memorial/Arkansas Derby/Santa Anita Derby (suddenly relevant to dirt again) and then the Kentucky Derby. The idea he will only race twice before the Derby is maddening to me but I'm not a "super trainer".

Speaking of the "Super Trainer", I think its a horrible offense played on the bettors to put Life at Ten in the gate only to watch her cantor about with no real attempt to engage the field. I give credit to Workforce's connection's, especially Michael Stoute, for making what was surely the poor financial but right horse advocate position, to not race in the Breeders'Cup Turf. He protected his horse and he protected the $2 punter and for this he was attacked by the establishment as not being "sporting".

I was also happy that Mine That Bird was retired. I might be 110% wrong but I think Trainer Lukas did a horrible job with this horse and the established voices in horse racing are loathe to criticize him.

My Rodney Dangerfield Eclipse award goes to Fly Down: he hangs around and makes you respect him to hit the ticket. Could be a fun four year old. I'm quite frankly tired of this year's 3 YO's. Looking at Lucky may be the best of the bunch but he's flawed too and may be good but doesn't appear to be great. What was Paddy o' Prado doing in the Classic?

Getting back to the Super Trainer, Quality Road had no business in the Classic. Are you telling me he isn't better than Big Drama who won the $2.0 MM Sprint? Anyone remember the Amsterdam? How about the sporting thing to do and take on Goldikova like Gio Ponti did? I love Quality Road and he's been mismanaged for two years in my moronic and humble opinion. The horse won because he was talented and won in spite of his connections. I love Freddie Head and his lifes arc that lead him to this moment with Goldikova. She is so powerful.

The Turk loves Dakota Phone. I saw him for the first time in a sizzling Place to Rail Trip in the Santana Mile on Santa Anita Derby Day 2009. He makes you forget and then, bam! Same goes for Shared Account, who the Little Turk loves and was rewarded for at 46-1. Here Comes Ben disappointed in front of the home crowd. Did you see the betting action on Sidney's Candy? The bettors third choice, a head scratcher to me, again good, not great. Blame was professional and workmanlike. No reason to say goodbye, I wish he ran next year. I was more impressed by Zenyatta's final 1/2 mile than anything else I saw all weekend. She was wonderful and she has my vote for Horse of the Year although no one cares what I vote.


And in the "this never gets old" category, I bring to you Adolph's reaction following Zenyatta's defeat.

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Mile Grade I on Turf

Ahhhh, Goldikova. The 4 YO Filly proved with three Grade I wins in 2009 that her 2008 Breeders' Cup Mile victory was no fluke. She's my heavy chalk again in a field packed with some serious contenders. I should walk away but....

Race 6 at Santa Anita Post Time 4:28 ET; The Breeders' Cup Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Fabulous Arcadian turf for 3 YOs and Up.


8-5 Morning Line favorite Goldikova (Ire) gives you little reason to doubt her but if you need something, go for possible current form. Last race was a clunker at 7F in October that followed up a spectacular Grade I win with a 131 Racing Post Rating at 1 Mile. With the field size, a few defensive win bets with her challengers who go to post at greater then 3-1 will be worth it.

The nest several horses in my handicap are separated by very little. I think Zacinto (GB), a 3 YO shows much promise but few results for a handicapper to hang his hat on. 2 lifetime wins in 5 starts but ran a very solid second to Rip Van Winkle in the GI QEII Stakes in September. Me thinks that's the only reason I have him this high and I will hedge down as far as 5th or 6th on many tickets. Points for Trainer and Connections to not pump the animal full of Lasix as opposed to many other hypocrites who site having to "level the playing field."

I like Gladiatorus and his 10 career turf wins to show up today. Huge in Dubai earlier this year but coming in off a prep in Italy, a Grade I 4 length romp.

Delegator (GB) I'm sure is a fine horse from Godolphin with Dettori up who's best known for almost beating some great horses. 5 of 6 in the money in 2009 with a Grade II and III win and a VERY solid 2nd by a neck to Mastercraftsman in the GI St. James Place Stakes in June and a 2nd by 1 1/2 lengths to See the Stars in May. Pretty even with Zacinto. Hedging up towards Place.

The next layer of talent starts with Ferneley (Ire) and includes Cowboy Cal and Court Vision. I think all three are good enough to take Show or 4th.

What's it all mean? I think in a four horse ticket Goldikova finishes 1st 80% of the time and 20% 2nd. With that opinion, I'm going to swap various horses into and out Zacinto (GB) and Delegator (GB) will be 1-4 80% of the time and I can't imagine a scenario when both of them are outside the top four. Of Cowboy Cal and Gladiatorus and Ferneley (Ire), I think there is a 25% chance one of them will be 3rd and 40% chance one of them will be 4th. In other words, a crapshoot. Build your own handicap and don't let hacks like The Turk influence you too much!

Have fun, Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup 2008 Preview: Filly and Mare Turf

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf, G1. 1 1/4 for 3 yo and up.

8 August 2008, Goodwood (GB): 1 1/4 turf Nassau Stakes, G1. Halfway to Heaven, a 3yo Aidan O'Brien trainee who has battled all the top F&M's in Europe This is her first trip to America, and she last raced and won on October 4, 2008 beating another entrant in this race, Visit.




Another Halfway to Heaven win, this time the Irish 1000 Guineas, G1 on May 25, 2008.
The race just before this one, she was defeated by Zarkava (sigh) and lost place to another entrant, Goldikova, and we'll get to her next!




Goldikova (Ire) is a 3 yo who's last two losses were to Zarkava. This race link was her last race, September 7th, 2008, Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, G1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LPf4qKio2M

A couple of American girls are feautured in this next clip. Forever Together and Precious Kitten battle at KEE in the First Lady, G1 at 1 mile on the truf. Forever Together posted a 104 Beyer to defeat Precious Kitten, who posted a 101 for second.




September 27th, 2008. An interesting race featuring a few entrants in this race. on this day, Dynaforce defeats Mauralakana on yielding turf at Saratoga over 1 1/4 miles. Also in this race was Communique, a 4 yo G3 winner who may be in a bit deep with this group, yet has put up some consistant upper 90 Beyer's.



The Diana on July 26, 2008 was a race that Forever Together beat Dynaforce in. Yes, these horses for the most part, know each other! Wait A While finished 7th in this race as well.




Staying with our theme of the vanquished becoming the conquerer, The Beverly D raced on Arlington firm turf, Mauralakana (105 Beyer-career best) drubs Precious Kitten (99 Beyer) and defeats Communique (102 Beyer-career best).




Staying with the theme further, a G1 winner at Santa Anita, Wait A While has defeated Vacare, which she does in this race, the Yellow Ribbon at 1 1/4. Wait A While has been beaten by Forever Together, Dynaforce and Precious Kitten, and seems to have Vacare's number. Wait A While is unbeaten on Santa Anita turf.

Vacare, the 5 yo, may be fading a bit in 2008. She hasn't broken a 100 Beyer since defeating Precious Kitten in the First Lady Stakes at KEE in October 2007.

I don't know much about Folk Opera, Pure Clan or Sealy Hill, and I'm not expecting much from them anyway.

It's an interesting group that have beat and have been beaten by each other. The Turk is still doing his homework so I won't make a pick I'll regret later, but I will say I like what I saw in many of these clips.