The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap G2

 

Rated R Superstar:  Thank You Dustin Orona

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2008.  My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today. 

My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers.  Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk.  Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling. Oh, how the times have changed.  For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now.  I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different.  In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale.  What does any of this have to do with horse racing?  I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today.  This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race.  When I started handicapping horses made more starts,  and it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts?  It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.  

Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?  

In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time.  Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure. 

In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other.  Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.  

Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment!  Lets get after it.  

It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.  

The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park

The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023

Recency.  These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies.  Let's put a pin in that for now. 

The Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up

This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like Last Samurai if I'm singling.  Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months.  4 wins in 9 OP starts.  Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt.  He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too.  I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire.  

The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them.  In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to Charge It.  The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the Gulfstream Park Mile.  Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed.  Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race. 

Proxy is a late speed monster.  5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win.  Look at his close in Santa Anita Handicap, his belated late run in Pegasus G1, right down his Past Performances.  Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 Clark last November where he ran on the pace.  I expect he will try something similar.  

The before mentioned Rated R Superstar should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best.  

The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent Santa Anita Handicap with Stilleto Boy who cannot be ignored.  Show in the Pegasus at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.

Finally, Classic Causeway at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now.  

What to do with all this?  Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap.   A $2 Exacta  of Rated R Superstar, Stilleto Boy, Last Samurai and Proxy, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12.   I'd like to see Charge It, who is plenty capable,  have a better effort before I back again.  

 I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!

Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: The Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, a service to the horse racing community that neither needs nor asked for it.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts on the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap with you today.

Instead of focusing on the lack of quality in the handicap division, I'd like to stay positive and thank Oaklawn for trying to grow the sport by increasing the purse in this year's 58th edition of this race to $500,000, up from $350,000.  The idea, even if the current quality isn't there, is to build towards Oaklawn Derby/Arkansas Derby Day in purses and rivalries.

The race was advanced a month as well to better position it as a handicap division pathway.  Oaklawn General Manager Eric Jackson explained  "...We've been so pleased with the way the Southwest Stakes has come up in recent years, we decided to build on that in the older divisions," Jackson said. "Until you get there and do it, you don't really know how it's going to work out, but it certainly looks excellent on paper at this point" (Perkins).  

Oaklawn to me is the place that I think gives the truest test of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown contenders, recent history aside.  I love the way the track plays, wet or dry, and the locals give the invaders all they can handle.  

Up and coming trainer Ron Moquett echoed what we all know in this game, you need the purses to attract the horses (Arlington Park are you listening?).  Moquett said, "...the purses here make for very competitive races," he said. "For the horsemen, it's not easy to win here, but for the fans, look who they get to see here every year. I mean, it's not an accident that Curlin and Rachel Alexandra and Afleet Alex and Summer Bird and Lawyer Ron and Zenyatta and American Pharoah and all these guys come here. They come here because we have the equivalent of Wrigley Field in our backyard. It's just a classic place to watch horse racing" (Perkins).

Anyway, let's get it on!

Again, the division is weak and it shows in these fields.  That said, rain may be the great equalizer. The weather looks like it will be very wet come race time.  It's questionable if Gun Runner, easily the classiest and most accomplished horse in this race, would even run in the slop.  Winchell Thoroughbreds  Manager David Fiske said  if the rains do come that   "There would be some discussion as to scratching him, for sure," Fiske said should the Oaklawn track come up wet for the Razorback. "But...he has to start somewhere. It may come down to that. So we'll see" (Hughes.) Keep your eye on track conditions as well as scratches and changes.  

Gun Runner fired off a :59 4/5ths 5f over the Hot Springs track this week and is showing no signs of his long layoff or his quarantine at Fair Grounds.  Four straight 100+ Beyers, 10 of 12 in the money lifetime, the Candy Ride's only two outings out of the money? Off tracks.  

If the slop does come, I like Blue Tone, shipping in from California.  Trainer Hess has been looking to get the 8 YO gelded Birdstone going since a Grade 3 win in early January at Santa Anita, saying "... I've been watching all the preps and all the horses, Obviously, we were hoping Gun Runner would pass, but we're ready to go. We've been eyeballing races all over, New Orleans, Florida, New York, and Oaklawn as well, for quite a while" (Hughes.)  Hess as well noted the purse as a factor in him coming back to Arkansas.  Hess said he decided on the Razorback because there was nothing for Blue Tone in California and the race is worth a record $500,000 this year, a hefty $150,000 bump from 2016 (Hoyt.) 

Domain's Rap, a 9 year old with 61 career starts, has never gone into 3 digit Beyers, and has only earned $10,300 per race (compared to Gun Runner's $170,000 and $22,400 for Blue Tone) is in my top four for his tenacity at Oaklawn, with 7 starts ending with 5 Wins and a Place.  His current form appears sharp and I project he may be fading at the wire but has more to offer than most of the field.  

I tossed Chief of Staff and D. Wayne Lukas's Goats Town, the son of his late career runner, Dublin.  I just can't strain my brain enough to make a case for either who are collectively 0 of 13 starts at the distance and 0 of 8  at OP and have 5 wins between them in 36 starts.  

Which leads me to my pick em' group of runners: Hawaakom, Smack Smack and Dazzling Gem. Hawaakom is coming in off a slop win at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds where he put up a 98 Beyer.  7 wins in 16 starts at the distance. Smack Smack  is 0 of 6 at OP, 0 of 4 in the slop.  I'll figure out where to slot him based on track conditions.  Dazzling Gem should be better than he is.  Well bred, classy, the 4 YO son of Misremembered out of Dazzler (Vindication) has 3 wins in 9 starts, a 97 best Beyer over the slop, 4 of 5 in the money at the distance and 2 OP wins in 3 starts.  When looking for value, look here.

So what am I thinking:  If the track is not a complete swamp and Gun Runner doesn't scratch I'll stick most likely by my base handicap.  

If it is sealed or very sloppy, and Gun Runner goes, I don't single him but instead place an Exacta Box on 1-3-5-7.  

If Gun Runner Scratches, I build something that focuses on Blue Tone and Dazzling Gem.  

Whatever you do, have fun and bet to make money, not for the thrill or the action.  Look for value and don't over cover your exotics.  

Turk Out!


Works Cited

Hughes, Alicia Wincze.  "Rain could threaten Gun Runner's Razorback hopes." Web.  The Blood Horse.   https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219897/rain-could-threaten-gun-runners-razorback-hopes.  17 February 2017.  Retrieved 19 February 2017.

Hoyt, Jennifer.  "Oaklawn:Blue Tone Brings Hess Back."  Web.  Times Record.    http://www.swtimes.com/sports/20170217/oaklawn-blue-tone-brings-hess-back  17 February 2017. Retrieved 19 February 2017.

Perkins, Pete.  "Elite Oaklawn Races set for President's Day Weekend.  Web.  Arkansas Online.          http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/feb/18/first-set-of-grades-coming-in-20170218/?f=sports  18 February 2017.  Retrieved 19 February 2017.

The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap and the Arkansas Derby

Will Take Charge (Photo Courtesy of Oaklawn Park)

The Derby Trail! One of the most exciting and agonizing things I do as a handicapper is try to sort out young horses without much of a history. I found a secret years ago that if I ignore most of what is written about the runners and just focus on the fundamentals I see on video and past performances and just play em' as I see em'. Most of the time I think I'm seeing them with dirt covered goggles. Today's Oaklawn Handicap is where I traditionally find solace, with older horses, with more established records. I find sanity on the paper, sense of things, order in the universe. I said usually. The Oaklawn Handicap is a bit of a mystery to me, with a heavy stench of chalk and so-so betting prospects. Anyways, I won't get too far ahead of myself, I'll build the base handicap and see what my betting strategy will look like.

Let's get it on!




The weather looks like it will be dry.  You can find the scratches and changes here.

A seven horse field enters the gate in the Oaklawn Handicap. My first two passes tell me there is only one true toss out, the five year old gelded son of Political Force, Right to Vote.

Will Take Charge is very, very hard to ignore. 7 straight 100+ Beyers, a :35 and change 3F work bullet 4 days ago, 10 of 14 in the money on fast dirt, 4 of 4 in the money at the distance, 2 wins in 3 starts at OP. Saez, battery free, is Up for Trainer Lukas.

If Will Take Charge can be bettered, I'm backing Golden Lad. He's got a nice off the pace run style and has Gary Stevens up today, a very capable tactical pilot. The 4 YO Medaglia d' Oro son is undefeated in his 4th season, with a win at both Gulfstream and Oaklawn.

Revolutionary is Pletcher's main threat here but I see him taking a back seat in this one to Golden Lad. Comes in off a very flat Donn Handicap in February. Working regular if not that dynamically.  I like both Carve and Moreno to best the Louisiana Derby winner.

Carve is a very deep closer.  He'll be coming at the wire, not going, and that should put him in the top four.  Moreno is an interesting runner: First start at OP, no wins at distance, only 1 win in 10 fast dirt starts, 2 wins in 15 starts.  That said, he strung 4 straight 100+ Beyers together last season before going to the farm after a dud Breeders' Cup Classic.

Prayers For Relief, a recent transfer out of Asmussen's barn, is a hard knocking 6 YO who could hit the exotics and I'm leaning towards putting him outside the circle of trust today.

I'm not sure if I have a betting interest in this race;  I'll be watching the tote to see what the bettors think of Golden Lad, who I'd like at 6-1 or better.  I'm not sure this race is worth an exotic bet investment.

I can't say I'm excited about betting the Arkansas Derby either.  I hate to do it, but Bayern seems to be the best, although I hate rewarding a lightly race colt with chalk.  I love the consistent work since the foot bruise.
 
Tapiture and Strong Mandate will both attract lots of betting cash. Tapiture looks very strong , and he won the Southwest and dueled gamely to Hoppertunity to Place in the Rebel.  I've liked Conquest Titan, Mark Casse's Birdstone runner all winter, but he needs to put up today or shutdown and head to the Belmont.

I think I'm a horse racing fan for these races and not a race track investment specialist.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011







We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 19, 2011: The Oaklawn Park Pick 4 including the Rebel and the Azeri

Pictured to the left is a scene that never gets old, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace trading strides to the wire. Havre de Grace, in the Fox Hill Farm red and white silks is now trained by one of The Turk's favorite trainers, Larry Jones, and all seems right in the equine world again. Blind Luck has had two unimpressive efforts as the heavy chalk on Santa Anita dirt, but she brings an impressive 17 of 17 in the money record into today's Azeri at Oaklawn Park and these two four year olds most likely will stage another battle, with only a few others that may challenge them.

Let's get after it!

Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11: the Late Pick 4 including the Grade III Azeri and Grade II Rebel



As always, start your day with a quality past performance. My choice is formulator Deluxe from Daily Race Form that allow me to tailor the information I print, like having split times and workouts embedded in the running lines, and delete the things I don't want, like morning lines. Use whatever makes you comfortable: The Turk endorses no particular product (although I was asked, the only real endorsement deal I have is a product that is uniquely classy and artistic) Also check the track website, the scratches and changes and the weather.

In the opening leg of the late Pick Three and Pick Four we have an Optional Claiming Race with a price tag of $40,000 on two of the runners, run at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. While not high on Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, he's clipping along at 19% at this meet and his Glowing Report is my chalk. The filly runs for the fourth time in 2011, in the money in all of them. She'll be challenged by Eve Giselle, unraced in 13 months, Bikini Bella who runs with a price on her head and Bell's Shoes. I may flip Eve Giselle and Bikini Bella but my top four is set.

Race 9 is the Azeri and will be challenged by a field of seven. Blind Luck has run twice since running a solid final quarter to Place as the chalk behind Unrivaled Belle in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She's Placed twice as a heavy chalk at Santa Anita this spring in two Grade II's with small fields and no pace. The last one, The La Canada is worth looking at for her closing kick.

The La Canada Grade II 13 February at 1 1/8 miles



A paceless, four horse graded workout. Yawn. Gomez gets the mount for trainer Hollendorfer. I'm most impressed by 17 of 17 in the money; 4 wins on fast dirt, 4 fake dirt wins, 4 wins at this distance and a win at OP, $2.45 MM in earnings for an $10,000 foal. Awesome. I wish her luck and she could easily win today, but I'm backing Havre de Grace. First time back since the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but training very well. Perhaps its too much too soon but Trainer Jones wins 38% of his first time with trainer runners and 42% of his 61-180 day layoffs and she ran very well off a longer break before. It's a flip of a coin.



Spacy Tracy and Absintheminded seem to have the best chance to send the chalks to the curb. Spacy Tracy is Anthony Dutrow trained and looks to turn the table on his previous charge, Havre de Grace. Two very sharp 4F in :47 and change makes the six year of Mare look attractive. Absintheminded, with Borel up for Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is in very good current form and makes the third start of her current form cycle. She bombed in three graded stakes races in 2010 before bouncing back against softer competition. Consider defensive bets at the right price!

In Race 10 we have the Grade II Rebel. Let's look back first at two key races, The Southwest at OP and The San Vincente at SA.

The Southwest Stakes Grade III 21 February at 1 Mile



6 wide at the top of the stretch, Archarcharch was in good position and drew away but Elite Alex had a lousy trip and was coming on and Picko's Pride had a good final 1/4 mile too, while J.P.'s Gusto was game and needed a few more hops (or an extra 1/16 of a mile).

The San Vincente Grade II 20 February at 7 furlongs



The two races are similar in that I like the losers a bit more than the winners, with no disrespect to Archarcharch or The Factor intended.

My chalk, albeit tepid, is Sway Away. I like the way he grinded through the smoking fast opening fractions and rallied and he wins with 30 more feet. I'm a big fan of The Factor already, and maybe I'm wrong, but he seems more like a dominant one turn sprinter. We'll find out. His sire, War Front was a grade II winning sprinter and its hard, not impossible, to outrun your DNA.

Elite Alex was six wide and was very impressive coming up the lane in the Southwest. J.P's Gusto had a better trip and I reckon should have beaten Archarcharch but didn't. Both are formidable. Picko's Pride took a big run up the lane too but let's keep him in perspective. The Factor and Archarcharch will be competitive and I also expect a good run from a Distorted Humor son, Alternation. Training very sharply and comes in off a nice N3L at 1 1/16 miles at OP. Watch the tote!

If your inclined to such things, the pick four ends with a 6f sprint maiden claimer with a $15,000 price tag with nine runners. I've narrowed it down to four, with the 7-3-6-8 my picks. Semiconductor/7 lost by a length in late February at OP at 6f but ran well. Thundersong/3 is the class of the bunch. Who knows but have some fun with it but keep it real: You can't cover everyone.

I'm looking forward to a good day of watching and reasonable betting. The day seems chalky to me and its going to take someone stretching themselves to make the payouts more than pedestrian. Keep the multirace bets within reason as its never fun to spend $100 bucks to make $50.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nominations Are In: January 17, 2011: The Jimmy Winkfield and The Smarty Jones for 3 YOs

From our friends at Wikipedia, James "Jimmy" Winkfield (April 12, 1882 - March 23, 1974) was a Thoroughbred jockey and horse trainer from Kentucky, best remembered as the last African American to ride a winner in the Kentucky Derby.

Winkfield was born in Chilesburg, Kentucky and began his career as a jockey in 1898 at age sixteen. He was suspended for four years after just one race for his involvement in a four-horse accident at the starting gate. However, he returned in 1900 to ride a horse named Thrive in the Kentucky Derby, finishing third. He rode the race again in 1901 and 1902, winning on His Eminence and Alan-a-Dale respectively - in 1901 alone, he won 220 races. He competed in his final Derby in 1903, finishing second on Early.

Later that year, Winkfield emigrated to Russia where he was greeted as a celebrity and in the name of the Czar Nicholas II competed at racetracks all over Europe. He won the Russian Oaks five times, the Russian Derby four times, the Czar's Prize on three occasions, and the Warsaw Derby twice. The Russian Revolution caused him to leave the country in 1917 and he moved to France where he resumed racing, scoring numerous wins including the Prix du Président de la République, Grand Prix de Deauville, and the Prix Eugène Adam. He retired as a jockey at age fifty having won more than 2,500 races then began a second successful career as a horse trainer.

Winkfield lived on a farm near the Hippodrome de Maisons-Laffitte (racetrack) in Maisons-Laffitte on the outskirts of Paris. He remained there until fleeing the German occupation of France during World War II. After the war, he eventually returned to the farm at Maisons-Laffitte where he lived until his death 1974.



In 1960, Jimmy Winkfield made an appearance at the Kentucky Derby to celebrate 60 years since his historic victories. In 2004 he was inducted posthumously into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. The Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack is run in his honor.

In 2005, the United States House of Representatives passed a resolution honoring Jimmy Winkfield. The full details can be read here at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.

As for Smarty Jones, well Smarty was a darn fine horse that won a couple of races you might have heard of in 2004, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

OK, what do we have here today? A couple of three year old non graded stakes, just to get a feel for the talent pool belong Uncle Mo, which, with just a few exceptions, hasn't lit the house on fire yet, but The Turk's a patient man and it isn't just about the Triple Crown, its a long season and you have to do your homework. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 8: The Jimmy Winkfield and Oaklawn Park Race 8: The Smarty Jones.



I don't know what do do with these short fields and the talent gaps that exist inside of them. I don't want to lament too many racing days and not enough quality horseflesh, but that's what brothers gotta do. That said, I'm keeping my betting action light and I truly believe you have to handicap and analyze constantly to learn who's out there running, so here we are.

At Aqueduct, a six horse field competes in the Jimmy Winkfield. A Rick Dutrow trained horse for Jay Em Ess Stables, Rift, seems to be the class of the group. A son of Not for Love, C. Velasquez is up today. In his previous three starts he's been in the money each time and has one win on the inner dirt.

Royal Currier is a son of Red Bullet, winner of the Preakness and the Gotham. Training nicely and comes in with two straight wins and 6 of 6 lifetime in the money. I like him for a value win bet.

Fort Hughes is a son of Henny Hughes, winner of the King's Bishop, the Vosburgh, The Champagne and Hopeful and a place in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and career earnings totalling $1.124 MM. The Darley Stables Colt, trained by K. Mclaughlin with E. Castro up, starts for the third time and has two solid previous efforts.

Trainer Levine and jock D. Coen have 23% of their races at the Big A. Bambi Bound, coming off a good 6f inner track effort in early December has a chance at minor prize, but pay attention for future restricted NYS bred action.

And at Oaklawn, a Harlan's Holiday son, Grant Jack, comes in off a win for Trainer Bret Calhoun, something he wins with 31% of the time after 212 tries. Harlan's Holiday won over $3.6 MM in his career with big wins in the Donn, Florida Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes and I like this horse as he stretches out further.

Archarcharch is a son of Arch, sire of Blame and a Grade I winner. Comes in off two solid and improving efforts for trainer Fires and jock Court. Fires stats are pedestrian at sprints/routes (7%), won last starts (0%) and just 10% of routes. He also saddles Bluegrass Bull who I don't think much of right now.

Again, I'm watching and learning more that betting. This type of legwork during the season helps you go for the bigger scores as the season rolls on.

And always, study the race charts and deconstruct your handicaps in a post race analysis. The following was two stakes from Santa Anita over the weekend, The Sham and San Fernando.



In the Sham, Tapizar struck the lead at the 1/4 pole and never gave it up. he never had to deal with any sustained pressure from Uncle Sam, the bettors second choice that I wisely discounted. Clubhouse Ride was clearly second best and the rest were an afterthought.

In the San Fernando, pre race I wondered in Mike Smith could make a difference with a horse content to win minor awards and it seemed that he did. Indian Firewater paid $13.00 for the winning effort. I discounted the chalk down, Thisskyhasnolimit and he weakened when he shouldn't have. Tweebster gave a good accounting and I'll look for his run back but I won't not so much with Haimish Hy.

Enjoy the holiday and enjoy the Eclipse Awards as well. I think these types of award shows are a joke, but I want to see if common sense prevails on Horse of the Year or not from curiosity standpoint. Turk out!

Anatomy of a Bet: Oaklawn Park Pick 4, March 13, 2010

There are two distinct and independant parts to the process the Turk employs before placing a bet at either a Window or at YouBet: The Handicap and then the Bet Construction. The Turk is a practical man, borderline boring except for his affinity for cigars and bourbon, two very hip things discussed in paddocks all over the country. I advocate a year or so of handicapping without betting to the bored business travelers I prattle on with over a drink and stale pretzels on the airplanes I ride weekly. Why? Because money is pressure. Losing money is pressure. Why place pressure on yourself when you aren't ready? Take a year I tell people. Handicap a few races a week, just like a crossword puzzle or Suduko, and gain your skills. I doubt anyone listens but that's my advice.

The Turk is comfortable as a handicapper. There was a time when he did whole cards five days a week and it was during that time I worked out the fundamentals of what is important to me. My handicaping isn't sexy. I block and tackle and take the numbers on the paper and try to bring order from chaos. I prefer to handicap without the morning lines and I follow a simple rule: I never read about the race i'm going to handicap before I complete my base handicap. Why? It's not information, it's personal bias reported dutifully. It screws me up to read Trainer X tell me that his horse is ready or the opposite,tell me he's not ready but really mean he is ready and will kick everyone's ass. The time for me to read is after my work is done.

The Turk is a OK gambler and bet constructor. My edict is low risk, medium reward, and readers of the Turk see pre-race analysis from me and a steady supply of post race success. I say I'm OK because my fatal flaw is not the handicap but deciding when and where to put a little bit more skin in the game in order to hit the big payoff.

This past weekend I was penny wise, dollar foolish as I left a $304 Pick Four on the table. Why did I do this? Did I get the handicap wrong? Nope, I was trying to save $18 dollars. Make this a two dollar bet, costing me $108 and you have a $600 winner.

The Anatomy of the Bet: Race 8- Race 9 - Race 10- Race 11 OP March 13, 2010



The Honeybee kicked off the beginning of the Pick 4. Right off the bat I seized on a few horses that seemed better then the rest: No Such Word was in off a win, breaking 1:00 in 5f work and had an OP win. Negatives included a win on Slop, a distance increase and a class increase. Decelerator who I named my chalk, was on nice two race progression and was breezing well. Negatives were losing half a length on the last call of the previous race and rather slow fractions to boot. Beautician seemed the most accomplished but was off a long layoff and a horrible effort the last time out. A three horse boxed exacta cost me $24 but I won a handsome $103 for my troubles. The Pick four was dead though after one race and why? Because I was trying to not over select horses for the races and I deleted the wrong runner. It happens and we'll get back to that!

My analysis of the Honeybee scrawled into the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In race 9 I narrowed down the list to Sea Gaze/2, Grensham/5 and Follow the Leader/7. Follow the Leader, the heavy chalk won easily. I had three selections in the Pick 4 and perhaps that was overkill.

My Analysis of Race 9, a OC/40K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In Race 10, The Rebel, I made no individual race bets as Dublin and Lookin at Lucky were just too poorly placed on the tote board and the bettor's didn't bite at all on this 7 horse field that had three good horses, one OK horse, one so so horse and two that are still running. Lookin at Lucky made me take notice as I don't pay much attention to 2 YOs and he hadn't raced in a long time and never on dirt. Dublin is quickly becoming a journeyman, a Grade I winner early as a 2 YO and mostly likely capable of Grade II and III wins as a 3 YO. I had two Pick Four selections here and was fine.

My Analysis of Race 10, The Rebel, scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

I spent some time on the large field that greeted me in Race 11. Being a confident handicapper (not arrogant, humble but confident) I never expect to be out of the Pick 4 by this point so i take the handicap to the extreme limit. I settled on three runners that I liked so much i boxed them as a trifecta too: Regions Reward/3, Logic/9 and Corralito's Way/10. I had this end of the Pick Four covered as well. The trifecta cost $12 dollars and returned $38 for my troubles.

My Analysis of Race 11, a MDC 15.5K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

So where did it fall apart? Race 8. I went with two instead of three selections. I budgeted a $50 dollar-ish Pick Four but I got a bit foolish and thought better of myself. It happens, but if it happens to often, you leave, yes, money on the table!


Study your winning bets and the losers equally. While its always easier to savor the thrill of newfound money in your pocket, the key to getting more is understanding where your strengths and weaknesses are and improving.

Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: March 13, 2010: The Honeybee, The Rebel and the Oaklawn Park Pick 4

The weeks are ticking by as Winter has but 14 days left before Spring arrives. The Arkansas Derby is five weeks from today and The Rebel being run today at Oaklawn Park should go a long way towards identifying the potential to reach top condition for the Kentucky Derby. Speaking of the Kentucky Derby, that dapper gentleman to left should need no introduction, relevant again after a few lean years, the winner of the Kentucky Derby four times, 13 Triple Crown race victories overall and 18 Breeders' Cup races, Mr. D. Wayne Lukas who saddles Dublin and Decelerator today, the Turk's Chalk in The Rebel and The Honeybee. Let's get after it!

Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four Including the Grade III Honeybee and the Grade II Rebel.



As always check the weather and the scratches and changes before finalizing your bets. Know the track condition and the potential track condition at the time the races go to the gate.

The Pick Four begins with Race 8, The Honeybee, that goes to Post at 5:42 Eastern Time. The field of nine contains some real quality centered around my choice of chalk, Decelerator. Winner of her last race and the loser by a nose before that, two solid back to back OP efforts with near equal 82 BSF. Nice work since the last outing a month ago and a new rider, Nakatani up. Decelerator is carrying 122 pounds, the heaviest of the combatants.

Making her first race in 2010, Beautician returns after an abysmal effort at Hollywood park in late December. Blinkers off today for trainer McPeek and he gives the mount to R. Albarado who has a win and a 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. A great 2 YO campaign, she shares a sire with Decelerator, Dehere.

No Such Word breaks from gate for Trainer Cindy Jones, looking for her first Graded Stakes win, but she sure knows how to find the winners circle and deserves to share some of the credit with her husband Larry for the successful trainer stats he put together over time. Comes in off an N1X win in the slop at OP on Valentines Day and is on the rise but has quite a class jump to hurtle.

For the Pick Four I'm leaning towards only my two two but may stretch to all three with my last toss Tiz Miz Sue.

For the Rebel, as I said I like Dublin to win in this race and I think he needs to win with a bit of conviction as well. About the only thing not to like from the Southwest Stakes was the slow final 1/4 mile and we will see what the extra 1/16 does for him. Two nice bullets since then, the fastest work of 149 other runners on those days combined. Nakatani is up here as well.

The fashionable Kentucky Derby pick for many weeks finally makes his 2010 debut, Looking at Lucky. First time on dirt for the Baffert runner, but the Hall of Fame Trainer does win 25% of his dirt races. Blinkers on today. His work pattern from SA does not show an improving progression but a minor factor for the Smart Strike son is capable of 1 1/16 mile wins, as he has two of the only three in the race. If he were to win, a big arrow will go up on his stock but the reality is he needs to have a solid race, be in the top three and set himself up for his last prep before the Kentucky Derby as his $1.2 MM in earnings will go a long way to securing his inclusion.

An interesting group that I'm torn on sits just below these two horses: Cardiff Giant appears to be no better then a Grade III contender and is winless on dirt but did have a good effort in the Southwest. Noble's Promise makes his first start on dirt and Uh Oh Bango owns the lifetime best BSF of the field lifetime and at this distance. I'm only including my top two in the Pick Four.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day February 20, 2010; The Fountain of Youth and P3 Plus Risen Star and Southwest Stakes

That handsome gentleman to the left, Mr. Red Auerbach, I didn't personally know. What I do know is the look of satisfaction with his cigar and the quiet reflection that comes when smoking one either in solitude or in the company of good men. The Turk had a major win today at the Fountain of Youth and he celebrated with a Rockey Patel Vintage 1999 Churchill. A very good cigar indeed and a handicap and constructed bet I'm quite estatic about.

Readers of the Turk know that he doesn't gloat and holds dear a handicappers creed that reminds him to stay grounded because for every good handicap there are several bad ones.

Without gloating I can say that today's win was about building a good base handicap, taking a stand on a horse to hit the top four that the betting public hated, and taking the time to construct a matrix of superfecta bets instead of relying on expensive boxed bets or 10 cent versions that return only 10% of the joy a person could receive.

Let's go!

Gulfsteam Park Race 8 - Race 9- Race 10

Fair Grounds Race 10

Oaklawn Park Race 10





The Gulfstream Park Pick 3 was an All Stakes Pick Three that ended up being won by two chalks and a bettor's third choice. The payout was pretty pathetic and clearly not worth the risk, but it's always better to win then loose and I strung together a winning pick three.

As I said pre race, I decided to bet the individual races as exactas. The D'funnybone/A Little Warm combo got the day started off on the right foot.

My Race 9 gamble on Rahy's Attorney did not pay off and I was left empty handed on the exacta but was still alive in the Pick 3 with the win by Courageous Cat.

Race 10, the Fountain of Youth, is where I did my good work today. It starts for me with the base handicap, devoid of as much pre race hype as possible. It's not easy to avoid hype of these Derby Trail contenders. This is the time of the year where 20 or so horses are treated/viewed as the next big thing. Some of the horses that lost today are very good runners, and the trainers know that the Derby is won in May and not in February, but being flat is being flat, and after each one of these prep races some stars will rise and some stars will fall. Buddy Saint's star fell and Eskendereya and Jackson Bend's stars rose or stayed high.

The bet was a matrix variety. It's the sort of bet I can construct in the quiet of my den but I could never pull off at the track. I took a stong opinion on the race; I thought that Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend would both be either 1st or 2nd, I thought Aikenite could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th, I then placed Pleasant Prince in the 3rd and 4th spots and I settled on Eskendereya in all four spots. If Buddy's Saint finishes in the top two I'm writing about a nice $100 dollar superfecta and instead I'm writing about a $1400 dollar winner because I looked at the PPs and took a contrarian view on Pleasant Prince; A Wesley Ward trainee who had a nice progression of Beyers's, especially a last race 1 1/8 Mile 88 BSF and then three straight 5 furlong works over a 14 day period culminating in a handride at 1:00 1/5 seconds. I liked Ward's 21% off 31 day layoffs and 31% dirt score. Curent form, current form, current form! Buddy's Saint hasn't raced since November and his work isn't that impressive. Hype? Maybe, I think he's a quality colt and we'll see what he does when he runs back.

I was too giddy to do anymore serious betting and I had a Risen Star handicap that was a complete disaster and a Southwest Stakes handicap that was pretty good with the exception of Dryfly who just didn't feeling like driving for home when he should have been driving for home. Falling star, check.

Thanks to Mr. Tony Bada Bing for pointing out to the Turk the image I had choosen was Mr. Red Auerbach, it didn't occur to this old Celtics fan so shame on me.

Good Stuff! Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: February 20, 2010; Gulfstream Park Pick 3 with Fountain of Youth as well as Risen Star & Southwest Stakes

Spectacular, Spectacular.
Finally a weekend set of races to get excited about! With last Monday's cancellation of the Southwest Stakes card at Oaklawn Park and a reschedule for today we find ourselves with some very nice three year old action and the races I'm handicapping here contain 35 Triple Crown nominations. I'm skipping a race at Fair Grounds because of time constraints but some Turk favorites General Quarters, Friesan Fire and Giant Oak are going at it and Giant Oak will be taking the main track and scratching from the turf event.. Good Stuff, let's go!

Gulfstream Park Races 8-10; Fair Grounds Race 10; Oaklawn Park Race 10
(spreadsheet attached)



The Fountain of Youth is a thin collection of horses, with the class being Jackson Bend and Buddy's Saint and this Turk is intrigued by the Pletcher trainee Eskendereya who is stepping up in class today. Radiohead (GB)has scratched from the Hutcheson.

Overall, I have no particular bet strategy yet. At Gulfstream Park I plan on betting the Pick Three with a reasonable 2 X 3 X 3 base bet for $18. I'll e looking at exacta's in the individual races. At Oaklawn and Fair Grounds I'm looking for exactas and 10 cent super's.

I'm late to the party today so instead of blathering, I'm going to check out and work out my bets. I'm watching HRTV and the conditions and weather at these tracks looks very good so don't worry about that. Enjoy and I'll be more verbal in the post race.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: February 15, 2010; The Southwest Grade III and Oaklawn Pick Four

Friends and readers, please let us remember our fallen stars and as I ponder the races today at Oaklawn Park I think about a Southwest Stakes winner, Lawyer Ron. A Woodward and Whitney Stakes winner, winner of the Rebel Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, The Southwest Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, he died tragically from colic less then a year ago. Rest in Peace Lawyer Ron.

The Turk is enjoying a Padron Family Reserve from the confines of his office in snow covered Western new York. A new year's resolution of mine was to attend this year's Arkansas Derby, but with Rachel and Zenyatta racing a day before, I now wonder how I will gain access to the track for less then the insane prices I'm seeing tickets be offered for. If any of my readers have a suggestion, please let me know.

Today I'm thinking about a sensible Pick Four that centers around the Southwest. These bets can get expensive so never bet more then you are prepared to lose. As I tell my non horse racing fans, compared to the s**t that is offered as entertainment these days, I'm OK with moderately priced gambling activity as my main source of pleasure. We all make our own choices!

Let's get it on! As always, follow procedure: Weather, Scratches/Changes and Tote Board.

Oaklawn Park races 7-10 including the Southwest Grade III



In the featured Southwest I'm backing Conveyance. Trained by Hall of Fame b. Baffert with Go-Go Gomez up, comes to his first dirt race off Grade III San Rafael and the fake dirt. A key race, his second effort off 45-180 layoff for the son of Indian Charlie. I'm not a big fan of taking horses on a new surface and betting them on top but I'm taking a chance on current form and ability and I think he's catching some of the others at a good time in the season.

Dryfly comes in off a pedestrian yet driving win in the Smarty Jones. Borel is up on the gelding for trainer Whiting who has pedestrian trainer stats but a win over the surface and looks very good right now.

I have Pleasant Storm and Dublin rated about equal here but only because of the long layoff and trouble that Dublin has had since his Grade I Hopeful. A very key race for Dublin to show some improvement but a win isn't an overwhelming need. Pleasant Storm is training well and goes over Oaklawn surface for second time in a month.

There is a solid middle tier of runners with Mission Impazible, Cardiff Giant and Kitty's Turn that could all hit the final ticket. Pletcher's Mission Impazible is winless on dirt, beaten by a head at GP and returns with J. Velaquez up. Cardiff Giant is the field leader with 10 starts but his first on dirt for trainer Periban with Santiago Reyes up. I like this gelding but not to win here.

I'm looking at a 2 X 2 X 3 X 2 pick four for a reasonably priced ticket of $24. Some pretty tough races make up the pick four, with a nice field in a Maiden Special Weight in race 7 that contains four Triple Crown nominees. I have two in the race but I really Madrid, running for Tim Ice who could use some good karma and I may insert Madrid later which would increase my bet to $36. That may be outside what I'm willing to lose today so I reserve the right to single Race 10 with Hayn Dawg.

Race 8 is a 5.5 furlong OC40K/N2X that I liked four horses in and I'm excluded Praderoso and Hidden Bay at my peril and Race 10 is a Maiden 15K affair with a 12 horse field and three pretty solid runners with the previously mentioned Hayn Dawg, Kygar and Stormin J D.

OK friends, have fun and Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 11, 2009: The Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby

The Little Turk strikes. Pre race, I talked about the work that General Quarters was putting in at Churchill Downs, including a 5f in :58 work. I was impressed and made a note that if he started the Derby, that type of speed on that surface would bode well. I like General Quarters, but not enough to bet him to win, but the beauty of being a 9 year old handicapper is no fear. The Little Turk was rewarded with a $30.60 win bet, which to him meant more Star Wars Legos. Hold Me Back had a good effort. Mafaaz broke in the air and showed his abilities as well as his inexperience all in the span of 2 minutes. Nothing about this race changed my mind from my pre-race comments; There were some nice horses here, lots of parity, but few world beating Grade I types. I credit consistency with my exacta win, which paid a cool $117.60. I made my handicap, I worked my handicap, I followed my rules about when to bet or not bet Trifectas and Superfectas, and I cashed a workman-like ticket. I said pre-race that if I won money at this race I wouldn't gloat, and I'm not. Little Turk guessed and his guess negated 2 hours of handicapping analysis on my part. The 2 hours of work allowed me to make educated bets and the one I expected the least, hit. Consistency. Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Mechanics teaches much about the pursuit of quality in life. I like to think I apply the metaphysics of quality to my 'capping. A Turk has to have standards. I'm proud of the Little Turk. He listens to me talk about the horses, he watches the replays when I blog, and he has a fantastic memory for what impresses him. He seized on General Quarters not because of the name, but because of what he saw with his eyes. Trip handicappers everywhere, rejoice.

Race 9: Keeneland; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 on fake dirt for 3 YOs.





Race 11: Oaklawn: The Arkansas Derby Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.

I wasn't surprised to see Papa Clem take this one. As I said pre race, Papa Clem is battle tested and has consistently raced against the best in the 3 YO class and has acquitted himself well. Old Fashioned has an effort that Larry Jones can build on. You'd like to see more desire to finish, but this is still a fine colt. I think it was a weak field, or more appropriately as i said pre race, a field of parity outside of the top two. My exotics were mostly blown up by the presence of Summer Bird, a horse that Mrs. Turk identified as live and long. The exacta payout was a result of the consistency I have been preaching; Build your handicap, work your handicap, bet no more then you feel comfortable losing.





Little Turk, Mrs. Turk, and The Turk himself colored Easter Eggs tonight. Not satisfied with his domination of the handicapping world, Little Turk left his stamp on the symbol of the secular holiday as well. I thank the higher power who brought this little boy to me from half a world away. He's someting special!

The Nomination Is In: April 11, 2009: The Arkansas Derby GII

The Turk got on a rolling rant this morning when writing up the Bluegrass Stakes. He'll do his best to avoid that again. This is an interesting race, a Grade II with more Grade I talent then the Grade I Blue Grass. But like that race, a mixed bag of current form and surface switches means a bunch of parity on paper. Where I think this race is different is at the top. Old Fashioned lost the Rebel and you would think the sky fell in. The horse can still flat out run, and run at this distance. He'll be challenged for sure and he's not the dominant force that the hype machine made him out to be, but he'll win more races then most and he's trained by the best. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that's 2007 Arkansas Derby Winner, the mighty Curlin with Albarado up.

Race 11 Oaklawn Park: The Arkansas Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



No condescending rants, I'll limit those to one per day. I will preach consistency, and I will apply that with my bet strategy that will key on Old Fashioned on most tickets to win, but I may make an argument for any of my A's.

Little Turk likes Old Fashioned as well and Mrs. Turk is hunting for ROI nirvana with Summer Bird.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 14, 2009

The Turk had what he likes to call a mental health afternoon. After retrieving Kay from the vet, I had nothing to do except take care of my sick pooch, and watch the ponies. It was a good day, with a mixed bag of handicapping, as well as the biggest one day payout I've had in 2009. I don't want to be a windbag, so let's get right to it!

Race 4 at the Great Race Place, bankrupt Santa Anita Park: The San Felipe (Grade II); 1 1/16 miles on "pro-ride" for 3 YOS.



No big surprises. I was happy to see Pioneerof the Nile win impressively, but would have been more impressed if the field was a bit stronger. I don't see how this race tells us anything more about this horse then we already knew. I placed no bets on this race but would have lost the few exactas I had in mind, as New Bay collapsed after an impressive first 6 furlongs.




Race 9 at Fair Grounds: The Louisiana Derby (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

The Turk felt good about this race. I loved the field and the more I studied the race, the better I felt, which is usually a sign that I will not only lose my bets, but be embarrassed by my choices. Not today! Readers of the Turk know that I'm not about the betting, and that exotic betting strategies don't interest me. I re-do the morning lines for probable finishes and most of the time I'm content with just seeing how it goes. There is one betting situation I like to take advantage of: The chalk who I feel confident will win and several other horses with OK odds of 3-1 or higher that I can fill tickets out with. I generally avoid expensive boxes unless its a 1o cent super. I felt really good about my top six horses, and I liked my one-two combo enough to anchor everything to them. Nearly six hundred dollars on less then 20 dollars in bets. I'd like to say that happens all the time but....






Race 10 at bankrupt Gulfstream Park, The Gulfstream Park Handicap (Grade II); 1 mile for 4 YOs.



I felt as good about Bribon(Fr) as I generally get, so this is more indicative about my skill level then the last race was. I had six dollars on three trifectas that I donated.



And the shocker of the day, Race 10 at Oaklawn Park, The Rebel (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



My cousin Marge asked me on Facebook if I had any good Irish named horses to recommend to her. I told her Win Willy was a huge longshot that would pay over 50 bucks on a 1 dollar bet. Well, I was right and wrong. Win Willy did win but he paid $56.80 on a buck. Wish I would have got a piece of that action.

I don't think this means much. I think Old Fashioned and rider Dominguez thought they had it in the bag and nobody read that memo to Win Willy. Current form for the first Saturday in May starts about 1 weeks from now. Ramp up in a week, have a monster final prep and work fast and strong for 3 weeks, and if Old Fashioned does that, nobody remembers The Rebel in mid March. It is troubling, but not a show stopper. The track was listed as good. No excuses please. I tried to illustrate in the above spreadsheet how wildly wrong the betting public had this one.



And the Turk didn't handicap or watch this race, but the 11th at Tampa Bay Downs, The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I'm going to have to sort this one out. General Quarters has flirted with my interest, and this one is more significant then what happened with Old Fashioned, as he just never fired. I really liked this race though. Musket Man was flyin'

The Nomination is In: March 14, 2009 - The Rebel, Grade II

The race that many people will be watching today is The Rebel, and the colt that people will be watching is none other than Old Fashioned. Trainer Larry Jones marches some fine three year olds towards the first Saturday in May, and he's ramping his charges up slowly, trying to do right by them. I wonder if he ever considered shipping to the Louisiana Derby, but he knows more about his business then I do. The Rebel was a Grade III last year, and pictured is a horse that the Turk isn't too familar with, Sierra Sunset, winner of the 2008 Rebel Stakes, with Christopher Emigh up. Photo by Danny Johnston.

Race 10: Oaklawn Park: The Rebel, Grade II: 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I think Old Fashioned should and will win this race. When I have that type of certainty in my bones I like to build straight tickets from my ratings board that will include some value. I'll be watching the tote as always in the hunt for value, but I'm intrigued by the lightly raced Hamazing Destiny as a possible ticket gate crasher. Wise Kid and Silver City look primed to contend. This is a tough race for Old Fashioned, as he can only satisfy expectations by winning.

The Turk has been typing way too much the past few hours. It's time to watch more ponies prance.