Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 25, 2009: The Withers and The Derby Trials

The lovely Dita Von Teese lights a cigar to celebrate the Turk's minor victories in the Grade III Withers at Aqueduct and Grade III Derby Trials at Churchill Downs. Out of respect to the equally gorgeous Mrs. Turk, we kept it to one cigar, two fingers of celebratory bourbon, and warm regards for each others, ummm, work. I digress.

In today's Grade III Withers, it seemed apparent to me that This Ones for Phil would be the overwhelming chalk. The Turk thought that he was a beatable chalk and approached his handicap with the idea that This Ones for Phil would be no better then second. I would have liked a bigger field to pump up the odds a bit, but some handy dandy math before the race made me think I could make a decent enough score if my handicap came through, so I exercised some discipline, worked my handicap as I always preach, and was rewarded with $92.30 on several bets that totaled $10.

Race 9 AQU; The Withers Grade III



I don't get hung up on betting strategy or rambling about my ROI. What I do well as a horse player is betting discipline. This race is a good example of what I talk about with working the handicap. Pre race, I had Everyday Heroes in the show spot on the ticket. I thought it was a stretch and if the horse hadn't scratched, I would have spent anywhere between $4 and $6 dollars building the tri tickets with other options. When he scratched, I worked my handicap and slid Gone Astray up and when he finished third, I had predicted the trifecta cleanly. With a five horse field I wasn't thrilled betting at all, but I felt strongly that I had this one nailed with the top two, so I almost stopped with the exacta bet, but I spent a reasonable amount and was rewarded. I worked my handicap, I put my eggs in Mr. Fantasy's basket and let it ride.

Race 9: AQU; The Withers Grade III



And the second race of the day was at Churchill Downs, where this Kentucky gentleman's thoughts are currently centered. The Derby Trials was a race I thought the heavy favorite would win, and Silver City didn't seem to get the memo. I'm concerned for the horse that was freshened and allowed to race a one turn event, and after leading at 4 furlongs, fell apart. Pre Race I expressed an admiration for Hull, and he rewarded me with $8.80 to win, but my handicap fell apart with Silver City.

Race 10 CD: The Derby Trials Grade III





All in all, a pretty good day on a day when no one in the race world is thinking about the last Saturday in April.

The Nomination is In: April 25, 2009; The Withers GIII and The Derby Trial GIII

With most race fans getting Derby fever, Keeneland closing, Churchill Downs opening, there is quite a bit to get excited about. The Turk prefers to get excited by honing his handicapping mind on some horses this week that at one time were considered Triple Crown Nominees, some of which could emerge in the shorter Preakness, but will most definitely not be racing for the roses. The first race is a 4:50 ET post at Aqueduct, The Withers Grade III. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that handsome grey is Ontario bred, hero of Fort Erie and the 2008 Prince of Wales Stakes and Withers Champion Harlem Rocker, with Coa Up.

Race 9 AQU: The Withers GIII; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YOs



This Ones for Phil will go to the post a huge favorite, with odds pushed to 3-2 or worse. With a 7 horse field as of right now, if this race is worth betting it will take the heavy chalk finishing no better then 2nd. I'm going to key my hopes on Mr. Fantasy and then look for value adders like Everyday Heroes, most likely going to post >12-1, and Gone Astray, most likely a >7-1 starter, to fill in some spots on my tickets. That's my strategy after one cup of coffee and I'm sticking to it. As always, watch the tote and work your handicap.

The next race I'm noodling with is at Churchill Downs, The Derby Trials Grade III. This race which goes to post at 5:17 ET, features Turk Favorite Silver City. Another handsome gr/ro. is last year's winner Macho Again, with Leparoux up, today's Silver City rider.




Race 10 CD: The Derby Trials Grade III; 7 1/2 furlongs on KY Dirt(!) for 3 YOs.



I like Silver City, especially after being freshened up and given more realistic expectations. This is an opposite situation then the Withers where I will be betting against the chalk. Here I will look to supplement an expected chalk with others in some low cost, OK reward prospects. Instead of hunting for 20 dollar exactas today I may try to swing for the fences with some straight Tri's and Super's and have some fun. I like Hull's work and Santana Six is interesting to me as well. The rest of the field is sorta ho-hum. Ho-Hum can be a bettors best friend as it creates unexpected results.

Enjoy. It's 70 degrees in Buffalo, Turk is Out!