The Nomination Is In: The United Nations G2 at Monmouth Park

2024 United Nations at the wire: Get Smokin. 

                                                                                                                               Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where I handicap turf racing and build exacta bets.  I've been handicapping for 39 years and I've been a fan of the ponies since Seattle Slew when I was 11 years old.

If you are new to my blog, welcome.  I've never made much of an effort to distribute this blog widely, but I have created a new Facebook Page and a X/Twitter Account, so if you found me there, I am grateful.  

Today is one of the marquee days in horse racing, Haskell Day at Monmouth Park.  The United Nations G2 just before the Haskell is today's turf racing mystery to solve.

Let's get after it!

Just a reference point

20 July 2024 Mth;  The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf

19 April 2025 Kee; The Elkhorn G2: 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

14 June 2025 Mth; The Monmouth Stakes $150K; 1 1/8 miles on good Turf

 

14 June 2025 DEL; The Cape Henlopen Stakes $200K; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

 The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Turf

Interesting field with no heavy chalk but clearly a line between Graded Stakes class and Allowance/Minor stakes. The potential for a freaky finish and a higher payout is what attracts me to these sort of fields and races, although I find it some of the hardest handicapping I do.  

Redistricting (GB) and Limited Liability seem like the cream of the crop. 

Redistricting (GB) is a 5 YO, lightly raced making 10th career start, 5 of 9 in the exacta.  Last win was here at Monmouth in the Monmouth Stakes, winning as the heavy chalk.  Stepping up bigly in class, but a close Place in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap in November 2024 gives me promise.  Prat/Chad Brown are 26% together over past year in 291 starts.  

Limited Liability comes in off a layoff since b19 April at KEE Elkhorn G2, a beaten head.  0 of 3 at this distance, 8 of 20 exacta finishes over turf.  On a run of six straight in the money finishes.  

Rebel Red (GB) and Grand Sonata are in my next layer of quality. 

Rebel Red  (GB) is a 5 YO son of Frankel (GB) with huge closing speed, the best late Timeform US Pace of the field.  Winner last time out in $170K stake at Churchill Downs, setting a career best 100 Beyer at 1 3/8ths, today's distance. A race best Tomlinson at the distance and the 3rd best Tomlinson over grass.  

Grand Sonata was a beaten nose at this race in 2024 to Get Smokin, the 10 horse.  Also a solid closer.  Walked off after Belmont Gold Cup in June, the 6 YO wanted nothing to do with the dirt slop when race moved off grass.  G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup winner in 2024 and a beaten head at Gulfstream Park in a G2 in March.  

Major Dude, Tawny Port and Get Smokin are where I cut off the contenders for the Exacta.  

Trainer Todd Pletcher's Major Dude is a 5YO making 20th Turf Start.  9 of 19 in the exacta over grass, first time at this distance and first time at Monmouth.  Last time out was at 1 Mile.  Hasn't gone past 9f in 5 races, the Pegasus Turf G1 where he was in a position to close but didn't.  

Tawny Port also wanted nothing to do with the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup and eased to be 81 lengths back (I'd called that eased).  Two Show finishes in two tries at Monmouth, but both gutty efforts.  Miguel Clement saddles him, the Turk still isn't ready to memorialize his favorite trainer, Christophe Clement, but rest in peace.  No wins in four tries at this distance.  1 win in 12 turf starts.  

8 YO Get Smokin must be respected  for his game win here last year.  

Starting Over and Vote No could have been considered, but I don't see it, although the 4 YO Vote No has 3 wins in 6 turf stars , closes well and is a last race winner.  

I think I'd be foolish to not cover Redistricting and Limited Liability in the top two spots.  Rebel Red and Grand Sonata,  Vote No and Tawny Port are my contenders.  

Rebel Red OVER Redistricting, Limited Liability, Grand Sonata, and Tawny Port, a $2 Exacta for $8.  

A dart throw really.  I think Rebel Red will be no better than 3rd on the Tote Board and I'm looking for value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

7 OVER 3-4-2

The Nomination Is In: Haskell Day Jersey Shore Pick 6 Races 8-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 Molly Pitcher, The G1T United Nations and the G1 Haskell.  There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor.  It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed.   As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world.  That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day, 

    Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now.  I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day.  If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12  or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14. 

Let's get after it!

 

Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6

In race 8, I have Late Speed with Proxy/6 and Early Speed with Whelen Springs/7.   I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance. 

If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single.  In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling Fore Harp/9 with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up.  slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.

I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 Molly Pitcher I'm singling Search Results/4.  Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form.  

In the Grade 1 United Nations,  it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2.  Was a bit fractious in the gate in the Manhattan last time out.  I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, Catnip/3 and Planetario (Brz)/6.  Catnip is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 Monmouth last time out.  

In the Haskell I'm not looking towards the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage.  Next time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back.  I really like Salute the Stars/3; Winner last time out here, improving and value.  Geaux Rocket Ride/1, Tapit Trice/5, Extra Anejo/7 and Arabian Knight/8 are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest.  Great betting races in this Pick 6.  I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!

Finally, in Race 13, Boston Princess/2, Cecile/7 and Fortineno (Ire)/9 are my choices as best of the field.  

Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping.  I'll unwind it tomorrow.

Have fun friends

Turk Out

Post Race Video and Analysis of Monmouth Park on Haskell Day with Late Graded Stakes P3

Money'soncharlotte-DRF

Welcome Friends to the Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Wrap Up of The Haskell and the Late Graded Stakes Pick 3 At Monmouth Park on 30 July 2017.

The Turk had a good day, and while not bragging, I have no qualms with pointing out that this free blog brings consistent handicapping and tees up positive ROI Bet constructions.

That handsome gal went off at 9-1 and the Turk was all over her placing her atop my base handicap.  Video and visual handicapping left me very unimpressed with Carrumba, who I expected and was the chalk.   Moneys'oncharlotte came into Molly Pitcher with two straight improving wins for Trainer Kelly Breen.  I really liked how Eskenformoney gamely came up for Place in final furlong.

Carumba was Carumba, good but not good enough.  She's now 13 of 15 in the money (4 wins with last win April of 2016, and she was the chalk?)  the classy Bernadini 5 YO.

I don't think The Matchmaker was hard to figure out.  The Turk did not hop on Miss Temple City like most, I liked War Flag to win.  I don't like the returning from Ascot angle any more than I like returning from Dubai, it takes a lot out of the horse and I want to see a good race effort before I hop on that.  I thought Wekeela(Fr) would be good but what a easy trip Castellano gave her.  I'm still high on War Flag and that should keep her next race price reasonable.

Alive in the Pick 3, I died in The Haskell (I didn't technically die- I didn't play my handicaps, I don't always feel like gambling.  Do I need to give my degenerate card back?)  I have really liked Girvin since The Louisiana Derby  and he finished very strong along with McCracken, who I haven't warmed to yet and I should.

Timeline and Irish War Cry were the losers here, failing to advance themselves, but I still like Timeline's class an awful lot.  If I were the connections I'd stay the course, maybe look for Grade 2 competition in the Conditions Book. Practical Joke showed consistency, Battle of Midway was the betting public's 4th choice, I didn't think too much of him, 7th on my list.

The Haskell G1

The Matchmaker G3

The Molly Pitcher G3

Are you playing Saratoga?  I was hesitant this weekend because I want to see another week or so how the surface is playing.  Talk about a golden live rail!  It's there to be exploited but I'm still leery.  I'll be watching the results for another few days before I decide where to invest next weekends racing capital.

Have fun friends, thanks for reading, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Monmouth inc. Haskell

Irish War Cry- Horse Racing Nation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  My horse racing engagement was cut short this weekend with the Little Turk's U-19 Soccer team playing in a tournament.  With the team laying a rare egg, I was free to spend sometime looking at the Haskell and the two Grade 3's late on the Monmouth Card, the Molly Pitcher and the Matchmaker.

I'm very impressed by this year's Triple Crown crop of runners.  The runners exiting the Kentucky Derby this year have been competitive and are a fun group.  I don't really care where they rank in terms of past years and I don't care.  That's the sort of stupid discussion that takes place on Twitter that I couldn't be bothered with.  I'm sure it's the same with every sport, you get these elitists, either insiders or on the periphery of the inside, who feel like someone put them in charge of moderating all horse racing conversations.  I'd rather no one ever read this Blog than kiss some of these "expert's" asses to get mentioned.  They do nothing to help  market or grow this sport, they seem only content to let other's know they are serious horse racing observers (fan would be beneath them).  The new way to denigrate a blog like mine is to label it "tout".  Tout is a four letter word and that's what these serious people think of anyone who writes about handicapping or gambling, unless it's their friend who's the tout.

Yes, the Turk doesn't give a hoot about these experts.

Let's get it on!




These are some pretty interesting fields.  The Molly Pitcher is a complete mystery to me.  None of these fillies and mares seems to want to win when I watch on video.

I'm really looking forward to how Miss Temple City and War Flag hook up in The Matchmaker.  I like what I see from War Flag.

In the Haskell, we have a very deep field and I'm backing Timeline and Irish War Cry as the class of the bunch.

I doubt I make a $36 bet, but it will be some variation of what I have there in my handicap.  Keep your eye on conditions and scratches and changes.  The dirt is fast and the turf is good.


Race 12: The Haskell Grade 1:  1 1/8 Miles on Dirt

Iowa Derby G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



Ohio Derby G3: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Wood Memorial G2:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Affirmed G3 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt- four horse, paceless




Pegasus G3:  1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt




Dwyer G3:  1 Mile on Fast Dirt.




Race 11:  The Matchmaker G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

OC 50K  1 1/16 Turf 18 June 2017 Mth:  War Flag



The 2016 Matriarch G1: 1 Mile on Turf



Race 10:  Molly Pitcher G3 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt

Fleur De Lis G2:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt- Carrumba



Lady's Secret Stakes 76K:  1 Mile 70 yards on Fast Dirt



DuPont Distaff G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt



Have fun friends,

Turk Out!

Post Race Results: The United Nations at Monmouth

The Turk don't brag or self promote.  I've been handicapping for well over 25 years and I can pick winners. The first step before you even try to assemble the exotic bets that I do is learn to place horses in expected ranges of finish.  In a nine horse field, can you get the horses into a Top, Middle and Bottom three to start?  Can you identify solid singles?

The Turk looked at post time 10/1 Bigger Picture (4-1 ML) and saw real value.  Joe Bravo up, big plus.  Trainer Maker 20% on 887 turf races, big plus.  Solid training and a cut back in distance.  A value pick, and contrarian to post time 7/5 Beach Patrol who I like, but hey, this isn't Curlin or even the Lemon Drop Kid. 

Value pick.  No pink sheets.  No fees.  Handicapping and Bet analysis for people who never asked for it!




The Turk cashed tickets on the exacta and trifecta.  Good way to start the second half of the race season.




Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations at Monmouth

Beach Patrol: Photo Lane's End

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk blog.

The Turk loves a good head scratcher.  That's what today' United Nations over the grass is to me:  A quality nine horse field, with the turf listed as firm but heavy rains predicted over the next several hours.  The field is still intact but keep your eyes on the track conditions and scratches and changes.


I picked Beach Patrol for my highlighted equine today, but I'm betting against him.  His last win was a gutty effort six races back at Arlington and he's the only Grade 1 winner here, but I'm expecting he'll be heavily bet so I'm thinking contrarian and will fit him into Place and Show.

I'll save my crazy, rapid readers a rambling diatribe and just get after it.




Chad Brown's barn is 23% over the turf, 24% routes and 20% graded stakes, all race highs.  Beach Patrol is 10 of 13 in the money over turf.  I'm shading out of the Win Spot to my own peril.

I'm considering any of three for Win.  Bigger Picture, trained by Michael Maker, with Bravo Up, has two wins at the distance.  The gelded six year old should be in the top 5.

Messi (Ger) has been training sharply for Graham Motion and the seven year old will have a nice price.  Better suited in Show-Exotic spot.

Can'thebelieving (Ire) it's Motion's other entry.  The six year old gelding put a good effort up over Monmouth turf in June and is also training sharp.  Better suited in Place-Exotic.

Itsinthepost (Fr) is 4 of 5 in the money in 2017 and he should put up a solid effort regardless of turf condition.  I like him to Win through Exotic, top 4.

Oscar Nominated is a four year old Kitten's Joy colt running for Michael Maker.  He's a bit slower than the rest of the field but is my only remaining candidate for the top 4.

That's six horses being considered for top four slots.  I'm not going to overthink this one too much.

Beach Patrol should set the pace.  I'm looking for Itsinthepost to rally for the Win as most likely scenario.  My base handicap is a rare deviation for me and I didn't base handicap and instead built a possible exotic bet structure.  I may keep it simple and put 3-5-7 OVER 2-1, a $2 bet for $12.

My trifecta may be 2 OVER 1-3-5-7 OVER 1-3-5-7-8, a $2 bet for $32.   Whatever I do today, I'm not over covering and I'm prepared to lose for a reasonable chance at least double the return if I win.


What ever you do, handicap yourself and bet responsibly.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 1, 2010: The Oceanport and Haskell Daily Double at Monmouth Park

This Turk took the month of July off from blogging. My five readers wondered what I was up to, at least I like to think one of them did, and what started as just a break to recharge the batteries turned into deconstruction of my handicapping and bet construction tendencies. Self analysis has always been something I believed made me better and I have always been a big fan of quality handicapping and post race analysis trumping quantity.

As any handicapper can attest, the race is always easier to predict after its raced. OK Turk, WTF do you mean? I mean, post race I take the race chart, watch a replay if I can find one, and let the race unfold backwards from the finish to the starting gate. I study the race within the race to spot horses with strong quarters that had bad trips along the way and I study my pre race handicap and see where I got it right and where I got it wrong. There are some races you just throw out and don't lose sleep over. Two weeks ago I stood at the rail and watched Golden Moka beat a very talented Big Red Mike and another strong runner Hotep in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie. This horse hadn't been past 5.5 furlongs and went out and shocked these route runners. Hard to fathom from the past performances.

Most of the time, most of the time, when I look at the race chart and then look at my handicap, I can see clearly what I did or what I should have seen pre race. That's what I mean, if you are going to be successful, you have to be able to look post race and make sense of it from the past performances. I digress.

I was successful this weekend because I built a good base handicap, I worked my base handicap, and my bet construction stayed true to my base handicap and I didn't over spend and under produce.

Also digressing, the above picture is Looking at Lucky meeting Cocco Puff. Very cute! Alright, let's get after it.



I wasn't that emotionally wrapped up with the results of either of these races, another good key that I sometimes struggle with. In both races I identified what I thought was the best two horses, Looking at Lucky and Get Serious, discounted them into second place and chalked the two horses I thought were at a good point in their training form and poised to strike mild upsets, Trappe Shot and Violon Sacre. It didn't happen but it doesn't mean the thought process was flawed and if I don't mind saying so myself, the bet construction addressed it perfectly.

The Daily Double bet was a simple 2 picks by 2 picks valued at $2 for an $8 total bet. It would have been a much better payout had the order been flipped, but not enough to retire on.

I had the exactas in both races as well, boxing my base handicap top two entries. My boss is a CPA who also holds an MBA. He taught me to never negotiate against myself when dealing with a counterparty. The concept is pretty simple; I offer you $5,000 for your used car, we talk for awhile and you tell me how good the stereo is and before you counter offer me I'm telling you I'll pay $6,000 for it. In this case, I have a base handicap I believe in, so why place too many contradictory bets; If I have a horse fifth in the bas handicap he shouldn't be part of my bet matrix in the superfecta in the Win or Place spots.

This thinking paid off with the Haskell bet and almost hit in the Oceanport. Taking my base handicap, I boxed the Win and Place horses, and then for horses 3-5 I boxed them for Show and 4th. Both bets were constructed identically for a five horse matrix that cost $24 dollars for a $2 super ticket. I cashed nicely on the Haskell and overall I did well for 1 hours work.

I had a line in my pre race analysis that I ultimately erased. It said that Looking at Lucky was the best three year old in the United States right now. I believed that before the race but I was hesitant to say it so boldly. I am most impressed by the way he trains on poly and then ships and looks great on dirt. If he races as a four year old I'd love to see him on turf, and the son of Smart Strike has a decent enough Tomlinson number you would think this horse could win a Grade I on all three surfaces. We could use more of that in the gene pool. I don't want to praise Lucky by knocking the rest of the class of 2010, what some may call mediocrity may just be parity. I'm leaning toward mediocrity but that doesn't mean Looking at Lucky isn't a very good, short of great, horse. The pairing with M. Garcia is unfortunate for Go-Go, but Gomez is a wildly good rider who didn't really give Baffert much of a choice.

Sister Turk and I had a wonderful day at the Spa on Saturday, taking in the Jim Dandy and the Diana. I bet A Little Warm, a horse I liked all spring, who I think can give Looking at Lucky a good run at the Travers. The thing about this group of three year olds is that I'm not sure all of them don't need just the right pace scenario and then just the right trip to win. Nobody is going out there four wide at the top of the stretch and winning on overwhelming talent. Don't be surprised to see Golden Moka crash the Travers party this year and who the hell knows what a win by him would mean for this crazy Eclipse Award category.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 1, 2010: The Monmouth Park Late Daily Double including the Oceanport and the Haskell

That fine looking gentleman to the left is none other then Super Saver, the reigning Kentucky Derby champion. He's brought his beach blanket to the New Jersey shoreline to take on a nice field of 3 YO's freshened up after the grueling Triple Crown season, as well as a member of their generation who skipped the springtime silliness and is the Turk's chalk today to upset the more recognizable names, Trappe Shot.

The Turk's just back from Saratoga where he watched the Jim Dandy Stakes yesterday, allegedly the traditional Travers Stakes prep race; this one sure seems like the prep with the bigger prize to me. Ok, let's go!

Monmouth Park Race 11/12 Late Daily Double: The Grade 3 Oceanport and the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, post time 5:04 ET.


The first thing you note when looking over the past performances is the quality of the fields in these two races. Starting with the Oceanport, it's always nice to see a returning champion as we have with Get Serious, but it's also nice to see a fixture of a man back with him, Trainer John Forbes. We wish him well and he has a legitimate chance to return to a winners circle he has known well for over 4 decades.

Trainer Biancone brings two runners into the race and I'm partial to Violon Sacre with J. Lezcano up. A sharp 1 mile effort on firm Monmouth turf in early July with a nice late turn of foot, 9 of 11 lifetime in the money on turf for the 5 YO. Far from heavy chalk but very capable.

Get Serious has had two nice Monmouth firm turf efforts already since late May, both low 100 BSF's, before running out of steam after leading the 2.5 furlong longer Grade I United Nations. Six wins in last nine starts, the six year old NYS bred gelding will go to the post as the bettors top choice and he'll be on all my tickets in one of the top two spots.

R. Dominguez is up for Trainer Motion on Cherokee Artist. An uneven runner, I'm looking at his past performances and I'm keying on some solid turf efforts in 2010 and ignoring the ones I don't like (the fickle red pen of the Turk). I'm looking at this last three race progression that ended with a 103 BSF and a strong second at GP at 1 mile on turf. The 5 YO comes in off a 99 BSF 100K optional Claimer win on firm turf at 1 1/16 miles. Not hard to see the results are possible at a decent price.

Strike a Deal is the best of my middle tier of challengers which includes Nownownow and Whatsthescript.

In the headlining event, a top shelf collection of three year olds competes for $1 Million Dollars in what has become the early Mid Summer Derby, the Grade I Haskell. Many of these horses are making their return to the track after being freshened up after the Triple Crown races; In the field only one horse has run in July and only one horse enters with two straight 100+ BSF, Trappe Shot, the Turk's choice to again reiterate that no one three year old has done much to establish himself as the best of the best since Eskendereya imploded months ago.

This would be a big step up for Trappe Shot who began his current two race string on Belmont Stakes day in an N1X Allowance affair. Trainer McLaughlin, with A. Garcia up, have clipped away at 57% winners at Monmouth and the sone of Tapit will have to stretch out another 1/16 of a mile to a distance his Tomlinson rating (416, second to Afleet Again's 430) tells us he should be comfortable with. He ran steady fractions last time out and finished with a strong :30.36 for the last 5/16's. 4 wins in 4 starts in 2010. Hmmmmm.

Looking at Lucky is a darn good horse who has had some bad trips in his 3 YO campaign and he's been a very good 2 for 2 on fast dirt including the Grade 1 Preakness. He's been training very sharply for Baffert at Del Mar with a smokin' :58 3/5ths at 5 furlongs in his last work before shipping. M. Garcia keeps the mount and wouldn't be surprised to see a strong performance which would help clear up the 3 YO picture.

Ice Box and Super Saver are pretty darn good too and should be placed forward within the tickets. First Dude and wild card Our Dark Knight will be on the edge of the exotic plays.

As always check the weather and the scratches/changes and track condition as you approach post time. The hour by hour forecast shows that there could be significant precipitation an hour or so before race 11 goes to post at 5:04 ET. It creates problems for any handicapper, but that's why this is considered gambling. Trappe Shot has run very well in slop and has a race best 438 Wet Track Tomlinson but Super Saver could advance higher on the ticket if the track gets downgraded.

I'll be hunting for the Daily Double with no more than a 2 X 3 selection matrix and more than likely 2 X 2. 10 cent supers are in fashion and we'll be looking to have some fun after ending our self imposed blogging break in July when I handicapped my arse off in private to sharpen up for the back half of the season.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 3, 2010: The Monmouth Park Late Pick Three including United Nations and Salvatore Mile

The Turk hasn't played Monmouth Park too much over the years. It hasn't nothing to do with the fine citizens of New Jersey, I just always had other options. I've been watching the brave experiment underway this meet at Monmouth and I can't help but think it's the model that many other tracks should be trying to follow. Today's choice was predicated by the quality of racing. I had printed the Belmont Park Late Pick Three Races and while I liked the Grade II Suburban, I wanted nothing to do with betting money on I Want Revenge or Regal Ransom and I may just take a $2WP bet on Haynesfield who is at a nice ML 5-1. Races 10 and 11 didn't interest me much either (N1X 38K 7f on turf and N2L 26K 1 1/16 on turf)so I guess I'm at the shore.

That fine looking Gr./Ro. is Take The Points. I saw Take The Points in the Santa Anita Derby last year and like his stride, but his last six races have been a relevation and he makes his second start off a long trip to Dubai and earns Turk Chalk in today's Grade I United Nations. Munnings and the Duke of Mischief headline a nice but smallish field Salvatore Mile. Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington. Let's Go!



As always, start your handicapping with a review of the websites where you will get the key information you need before you wager. The weather looks good today and I expect the Turf will be Firm and Dirt Fast. It's a bit early for scratches and changes but the first race isn't until 5:23 Eastern so check back in.

Race 10 is the Grade I United Nations. It's a very nice 9 horse field with three pace pushers and lead takers (Get Serious/2 & Straight Story/4 & Acclimation/3 and some hard late closers in Winchester and a strong off the pace runner in Take the Points, as well as a wildcard in Chinchon (Ire) , freshly arrived from Graded Stakes action in France.

As I am looking for value in a Pick Three I'm less excited after my handicap then I was before. I see some chalk or close to chalk runners winning legs 1 and 2 and value may come in a big field N3L at 1 1/16 mile on Turf. If this was easy, children would do it (OK, possibly they do with respect to The Little Turk, but you get the idea).

I actually like this as a betting race for a reasonable price Superfecta so I will take no more then the top two for the Pick Three and most likely single this race and the next (just for a low risk, decent reward value bet) but I will build the Superfecta as I laid out above. I'm backing Take the Points or Winchester to win, and I'm really indifferent to which one does win. Winchester, a Clement runner and a son of Theatrical has solid Tomlinsons for both distance and turf and comes in off a very nice firm turf Grade I win at Belmont at 1 1/4 over Gio Ponti. Pretty good credentials for a resume that was second tier before that race. I'm betting he's on the rise and that's why we call this gambling! Take The Points drops back a 1/16 of a mile after finishing fourth in the above mentioned race to Winchester. A very sharp 4f bullet on Turf in :47 confirms he's rounding into form after a taxing trip to Dubai for Trainer Pletcher and jock E. Prado, up again and sporting a 20% win rate with the conditioner.

Of all the front running speed burners, I like Acclimation the best: Running at regular intervals with a G2/G1 and now G1 effort spread across almost equal 5 week rests. 3 wins in last 16 starts but 11 of 16 in the money over the same period and 8 of 12 in the money on turf with 33% win rate. I think it's a bridge too far but never under estimate the loose on the lead angle which I don't see happening with the others here to contest.

I'm only going to go down to my "yellow" rated and that includes a big wildcard in Chinchon (IRE) with Gomez up and Get Serious who I'm thinking will be dropping back instead of going forward by the wire. I might be wrong not backing Jeune-Truc (Brz) for 4th and I'll have to live with that mistake if it happens.

A five horse field greets us in the second leg, the Grade III Salvatore Mile. Munnings is a serious tease: A fireball who fires sometimes and at others seems content for place and show. He ran a real clunker in the slop at Churchill and is now winless on wet dirt, which makes you shake your head at his gaudy 480 Tomlinson for wet surfaces. He's 7 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and you ignore him at your own peril. Gomez gets the mount from usual rider J. Velazquez. Gomez's fortunes seem to fall and rise like the waves on the shore of New Jersey but I digress. A horse I'm VERY guilty of underestimating is the Duke of Mischief. 5 wins in his last 12 starts and his BSF's are anywhere from solid Allowance runner to Grade II star. Only won once in 13starts as the chalk at post time. Trainer Hawkes and E. Coa, up, win 26% of their races together.

Le Gran Cru is a solid runner that is saddled by the Pletcher barn for the first time today. 50% winner over 6 races at 1 mile. He'll go to gate >4-1 and might be a nice defensive win bet.

I'm again thinking I'll single a horse in this leg and I may single Munnings, contrary to what I have in my spreadsheet. I'm fickle when it comes to his regal horseflesh.

Race 12 is intriguing, a 12 horse field running 1 1/16 miles for horses stuck at two wins or less with claiming prices ranging from $25 to $20K. I have a whopping six horses in my top group, far too many but I may just go ahead and bet them all if I single the first two legs which is today's Truck Nutz (c) Iron Pipe Lock of the Week Play. OK, Truck Nutz don't really sponsor me with money, but friends of the Turk know how he respects the entrepreneurial spirit of America. Yeah, it's a holiday weekend and I'm having fun.

So that's my basic plays I'm I'm sticking with it. If i deviate I'll take 2 X 2 in the first two legs and drop down to three picks in race 12, most likely 6-10-12.

Have fun everyone. I'll be back for some Fourth of July hijinks. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 2, 2009; The FourStarDave and Haskell Invitational

When things aren't going your way in this game, and dry patches do happen, there's only one thing you can do: Work harder. Everyone need a process. Everyone needs a way to get back to basics. The Turk took a two week holiday break in early July and then struggled for two weeks afterwards to break out of a funk. While I couldn't take credit for it, yesterday I handicapped both the Jim Dandy and West Virginia Derby and I nailed both cold, Trifecta payouts. I felt relieved, but it wasn't enough, I needed a race I could blog and be proud of. I keep to my basics; I stuck to the information in the Deluxe Past Performances from Daily Racing Form, applied my red pen in search of current form, current work, class, distance and surface and the intangibles of Jock/Trainer stats and the horses In the Money percentage. It was this effort, and as always, educated luck, that lead me from the darkness and into the light.

Race 7 SAR: The FourStarDave Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



The Turk bet multiple $2 Superfectas using my base handicap. I choose not to box because I didn't like Cosmonaut or Mambo Meister to finish on top of the ticket. Luckily for me, I built several tickets without Cowboy Cal on top. I was impressed by Justenuffhumor's PP. Again, educated luck. Build a handicap and work the handicap. I think the biggest stroke of luck was I trusted my gut and tossed Kip Deville.

The $2 Superfecta paid $1,639. The $2 Trifecta paid $345. Nothing sexy, just workmanlike.

Race 13 MTH: The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy and sealed dirt surface for 3 YOs.



Quick math told me I was on the hunt for small potatoes. I figured if I hit the Trifecta I'd return may 18 bucks. It ended up returning $12 dollars and change. I declined to bet but I did have the Trifecta nailed down. I was impressed by Munnings but he should stick to one mile or less and one corner, and Rachel Alexandra, wow! What a horse, she should have/could have been the Triple Crown winner.

The Little Turk is sitting here with me. He gets life better then most folks his age. He knows the difference between bragging and being proud of what you do. Dry spells happen to all horseplayers. Good days come to. Enjoy them without bragging.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 2, 2009; The Haskell Grade I

It's hard to believe that one year ago that monster colt to the left, Big Brown, was stepping onto the last racetrack he'd ever menace, Monmouth Park, the scene of his last major victory in The Haskell Invitational. He was only the second Kentucky Derby winner to win the Haskell Invitational, the other being War Emblem in 2002.

Today's edition of the 42nd running of the Haskell Invitational, named for the former President and Chairman of the Board of Monmouth Park, Mr. Armory Haskell, features another feared runner who will go off at ridiculously low odds, the Preakness and three time Grade I stakes winner, Rachel Alexandra. She is challenged primarily by the Belmont Stakes Winner, Summer Bird, Grade II winners Papa Clem and Munnings, and the classy and now royal, Atomic Rain.

Race 13 Monmouth Park; Post Time 6:15 ET; The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



This is a handicap you'll have to tie to the weather very closely. The hour by hour forecast for Oceanport, NJ today shows some very severe weather around 3 to 4 PM with 40-60% precipitation most of the afternoon. You can find the track condition updated regularly at the Monmouth Park website.

I don't know how you don't support Rachel Alexandra to win if based solely on the numbers, trips and body of work. The filly has posted 6 straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figs and has trained very fast since her 19 length victory in the Mother Goose in late June. She also has the highest lifetime speed fig on an off track at 103. I'm hunting for exotics, so I will wheel, key or build a matrix around Rachel Alexandra winning and if she doesn't, someone other then this Turk will be happy.

The pace scenario for this race is hard to figure, but most likely Rachel Alexandra will go to the front or just outside and back of the pace setter. The seven furlong flash Munnings, coming in with back to back wins and 2 straight 110+ BSFs looks to strike the front early and bring some heat. Another who may press the pace is the unlikely top four finisher Duke of Mischief. It's a stretch but I'm leaning towards the speed sustaining 2 extra furlongs for Munnings and carrying him anywhere from second to fourth.

A strong collection of horses compete in this race, a notch below Rachel Alexandra, but fine Grade II challengers. Papa Clem I have fifth but could easily find the top 4. Atomic Rain and Summer Bird could easily flip flop around with Munnings.

Whats it all mean? Build a base handicap and then work your handicap. For me that means keeping Rachel Alexandra on top and inserting in combinations for the Exacta, Tri and Super. The overwhelming favorite that I think Rachel Alexandra will be with the betting public will make the needle on the risk/reward meter lean heavy towards risk. I'll take no more then 10-12 dollars and see if we can't make it into 50 or 60 dollars.

Good Luck and Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth

There were a bountiful of good races yesterday, a little bit for everyone and suitable for any one's particular taste. There was also hotdogs, grilled vegetables, and assorted other distractions to limit my handicapping to just a few races. The race I keyed on with my time limitations was the Salvator Mile at Monmouth. I thought it was a race ripe for an exotic payout, and there is nothing more American then hitting the easy score when it presents itself. That good looking colt in the Vanessa Ng photo is the winner of the 2009 Salvator Mile, Coal Play.

Race 9 Mth: The Salvator Mile Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



In my pre-race handicap I identified a dividing line in talent that I thought separated the top four from the rest of the field. The line turned out to be a head, as Two Step Salsa's head beating Kiss the Kid, whose neck beat The Roundhouse, kept my simple but effective handicap viable.

Coal Play struck to the front by the first call point of the race and never surrendered the lead. Smooth Air, my expected winner, drifted very wide in the stretch but had enough left to finish strong.

I went with one bet: I boxed a $1 Superfecta Bet on my base handicap. I think my restraint was partially because of the limited time I had to think about betting. It's something I should do more often, place a decisive bet and move along. My $24 investment returned $227.90. To anyone who'll say all I did was box the top four of the tote board my answer is no: I handicapped the race. That's what I do. My analysis placed those four at the top of my handicap hours before the tote board placed them there. My quick math told me the superfecta was worth somewhere between 180 and 250 dollars. If that's chalk chasing, I'll do it everyday!

Have Fun. There are some good races today and I may try one on for size later. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 4, 2009: The Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park

United Nations Day at Monmouth as our country celebrates Independence Day. The fine looking animal to the left in the Vanessa Ng photo is the 2008 winner of the Salvator Mile, Notional, with J. Bravo up.

I haven't handicapped Monmouth much since October 2007 and the Breeder's Cup. I was enjoying a phenomenal handicapping day when the emotional high came tumbling down with the breakdown and death of George Washington following the Breeder's Cup Classic. On as patriotic a day as we celebrate every year, I'd like to take just a moment and remember the horse named after the father of our country. It's important to me to remember that this game we play sometimes ends tragically and just as I honor the human dead, I hope all horseplayers retain enough compassion to remember our dead runners.

It's suppose to be a good weather day at Monmouth. For anyone concerned about track condition and current weather, you'll find the Monmouth Park website very useful.

Race 9 Mth Post Time 4:50 ET: The Salvator Mile GIII; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm backing Smooth Air to win right now and if that changes as the day goes on I'll update. I don't generally like first time with a new trainer horses, something Trainer Brown has done 59 times and won 17% of. It's Smooth Air's first time at Mth as well. He is 9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance and 13 of 15 lifetime starts in the money. The Grade II winner gave Bribon all he could handle at the Met Mile on Memorial Day. He may be the post time chalk, so if he doesn't look good in the paddock or post parade I may jump off of him quickly and look for win bets where there is more value.

Two Step Salsa, campaigning under the royal blue silks of Godolphin, is a Grade II winner and is making his 2nd North American start since wintering in Dubai and doing very well there to boot. G. "home is where the heart is" Gomez leaves his California home and is up today. Trainer of record bin Suroor has good stats on 2nd off 45-180, winning 37% of the time and 20% of Graded Stakes. 7 out of 11 of Two Step Salsa's lifetime starts are on turf or synth.

Solar Flare interests me greatly. His current form indicates he may be running as good as he was in June 2008 before he had a late season swoon. Trainer Jones has super stats so I won't run down the list, but 26% in 31-60 day layoffs and 33% Graded Stakes pop out. Solar Flare won at Monmouth in late May. Lots to like and will force me to either box my exotics or place him at the top on multiple tickets.

Trainer Zito and last year's winning jock Bravo are here with Coal Play, a head scratcher of a runner. 4 of 4 in the money at Monmouth, 2 of 3 at this distance and coming off a 105 BSF performance at BEL at this distance on June 10th. Coal Play gave Big Brown all he could handle in last year's Haskel. The son of Mineshaft could win, but is talented enough to be in the top four. Zito's WON LAST START stat is 33% on 100 races.

Happy 4th of July. The Turk will be celebrating with the Turk Clan on Poppa Turk's deck, a few short steps from the sat TV feed of the races. For the record, Mrs. Turk likes The Roundhouse here, a good win bet at 6-1 for the talented but erratic Pletcher trainee and Little Turk is backing Solar Flare.

10 Cent supers are in fashion here. I'll be exotic hunting.

Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington.