Anatomy of a Bet: The Sand Spring Stakes at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk blog, in our 11th year of handicapping and bet construction here on the interwebs and in our 33rd year of being a degenerate horse player.

I had no particular rooting interest in yesterday's Sand Spring Stakes, the tenth race on the Gulfstream Park card on Florida Derby Day.  I picked a race to blog about with one one criteria other than my main criteria of being a turf race and that was field size, which the race had nine entered and eight went to post.

My early season, and to me I'm only in full blown handicapper mode between May-October, is just about getting my handicapping techniques engaged and working again after a handicappers holiday that I take every winter to refresh my mind and love of the game.  I've blogged three times in 2019 and given you three winners cold and some good exactas to boot.  Am I bragging?  Not at all, just pointing out that I honed in on the things that I do best, namely handicapping turf races, one mile and up, over firm turf primarily, and that I'm really confident in my abilities to size up the field (handicapping) and generate positive ROI consistently (bet construction).  It's not bragging, I'm actually humble, humbled by years of highs and lows.  Yesterday's exacta and trifecta win on the Sand Springs Stakes was because I ignored the mantra of Han Solo.  I noticed my second choice, Proctor's Ledge bet down to 1-1 odds, a mare with one win at the distance should not be bet down to 50-50 odds without at least challenging the possibility, which is what I did to my benefit.

Handicap Pre Race




And my pre-race thinking was:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.

You'll notice I put Fire Key #2 over Vendita #1 in my bet construction, which was just an educated hunch. 

I was leaning pre-race to single Proctor's Ledge if the post time odds mirrored the morning line odds, 4-1.  When they didn't, without a shred of emotion went with my original thought and put Valedictorian on top for an easy $9.50 exacta on a $2 bet.

I plunked down $6 to win $23.90 Trifecta betting 5-9 OVER 6-8-4  

Smartest guy in the room?  Far from it.  Consistent handicapping and not over thinking the bet construction, relying on the work I've done and using the tote board eyes to make sure I don't overlook value.  

Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The $100,000 Sand Springs Stakes at Gulfstream

Gulfstream Park: Photo Mason Kelley

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 11th season of providing questionable handicapping and atrocious bet construction to people who never asked for it.  Actually, the handicapping and bet construction is not too shabby, and I focus on what I do well, and more importantly enjoy more, and that's older horses running over grass.  Everyone is about to be sucked into Kentucky Derby fever, and that's very cool, but 2 and 3 YO horses have never been my strong suit and I'll leave that sort of thing to people who are better at it and care more about it than I do.  At Gulfstream today, Florida Derby fever is kicking in with Race 14 going off at 6:36 ET, but for me, I'm "practicing" today on Race 10 about two hours earlier, Sand Springs $100K for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up, one mile with the temp rail set at zero (alternates 0 to 60 feet).

Why do I practice?  Why does anyone practice anything, to improve and get better at a skill, and my craft is handicapping and bet construction.  I've been handicapping for 33 years, which alone is hard to believe, but true.  I still learn and my skills need need sharpening.  I often will handicap a dozen races and build bets, and not bet them, just for a mental exercise, just for practice.  I think all of us have some mental exercise we perform to stay sharp.  I work very long hours and I travel a lot for my job.  An hour or so here and there handicapping is the perfect mind relaxer that makes me better at my job as well.

For a turf guy, you don't have a lot of great options early in the calendar year.  I should have played Santa Anita which has some graded stakes over grass today, or even Japan, but the handicapper in me likes predicable situations with few variables and quite frankly I don't want any part of the craziness at Santa Anita until that situation calms down some.  I very much hope it does, horse racing can't afford to lose Hollywood Park and Santa Anita in Southern California.

Lets get after this handicap!




The Track was listed as Good as of March 29, you'll find an update to track conditions as well as scratches and changes here.  The #3 filly, Mrs. Ramona G is unfortunately scratched.  The weather looks like it should be dry up to and after post time.


The race looks chalky to me.  Carrying the most weight at 124 pounds is Trainer Breen's Valedictorian.  Two straight strong GP performances, 7 of 10 in the money over GP grass, a class drop for the Mare  who has a big early Timeform and will look to wire the field.  She should break and be at the front with Too Charming and Andina Del Sur through 4f.

Proctor's Ledge intrigues me here.  A grade 1/2 contender, the Mare is making first 2019 start, a layoff of 61-180 days that Trainer Walsh wins 15% of the time in 60 tries over past year.  An excellent :46 3/5ths 4f work 2 weeks ago makes me think she's ready.  4 pounds less than Valedictorian, she should be just off the pace and we'll have to consider if the speed that is in front will crack.  I'd like it better if turf was a bit softer but I'm not discounting. 

Too Charming and Andina Del Sur are more or less similar horses, both going for Trainer Albertrani.  Both will come out fast.  Both lack high end speed that carries.  Both have excellent pilots.  both in the mix for Place-Show-4th.

Best of the rest is Quebec.  A morning line 3-1, with Ortiz Jr Up for Trainer Robert "Bobby" Dibona who is looking for first stakes win and has two Grade 3 wins over a long time training.  I don't see it but at 118 pounds the horse has run well, has 90+ Beyers  and decent early speed that carries late. 

I'm keeping the betting simple:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.


Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out!