The Nomination Is In: The G1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs under the lights

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  The Turk has taken a handicappers holiday for most of 2018 while he was finishing up a Master's Degree in Finance.  The course work has mostly been used to analyze my poor betting capital allocations, but I'm back, and happily this first blog post back is for The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner.  Good People, Good Organization and hopefully good returns on investment.

The Turk has been a horse racing fan since Seattle Slew's Triple Crown run of 1977 when I was eleven years old.  Like many boy's my age, Sports Illustrated and ABC's Wide World of Sports were my windows into the sporting world, and horse racing was still a high profile major sport.  It's been great to see the excitement Justify and American Pharoah have brought to the sport, a sport that desperately needs more good marketing.  Churchill Downs night time racing is something I enjoy very much and while I know this 51 year old isn't exactly a demographic priority, I appreciate Saturday night racing and wagering and wish there was more quality nights like this in the summer.  

Let's get after this!

The weather on Friday and Saturday looks pretty dry, so let's assume a fast dry track.

Backyard Heaven, a lightly raced 4 YO Tizway colt, trained by Chad Brown, looked awfully impressive in dispatching Always Dreaming and a good field in the Grade 2 Alysheba here at CD on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's got excellent tactical speed and I'm singling him, keying all my thoughts on his continued brilliance.  You have to wonder what this win would mean and how Trainer Brown would point him afterwards, with the Breeders' Cup looming at Churchill Downs in five months. 

He is facing a deep and talented field: Churchill local Honorable Duty breaks from the 1 gate and will need his early speed to gain position.  The 6 YO gelded son of Distorted Humor is 6 of 8 in the money at CD and 9 of 11 in the money over fast dirt.  Trainer Brendan Walsh and rider Lanerie are clipping along at a 30% win rate with 46 mounts this year.   Place in last years edition of this race.

Irish War Cry, 4 YO Curlin, comes in off a driving win in the Pimlico Special in the slop where he has a 421 Tomlinson. It was his first win six starts after his Wood Memorial.   I'm not sold.  

Pavel, the 4 YO enigmatic Creative Cause, campaigned by the Reddam Team of Doug O'Neill with Gutierrez up, is too talented to overlook.  A well beaten fourth in Dubai in March followed by a well beaten fourth in the Gold Cup G1 at Santa Anita three weeks ago, breaking at the top of the stretch under the pressure of fast fractions.  The distance and class cutback won't hurt but I need to see more consistency before considering him to win races.  

Looking at Lee, who's arguable best performance was a lagging Place to Always Dreaming in last year's Kentucky Derby, comes in off his first win, a 62K OC N2X class drop.  I grouped him with a couple of 8 YO geldings, Hawaakom and Matrooh.  They are both hard knocking veterans who can easily be in the money, especially Hawaakom with his very late speed.  

Pletcher's uncoupled Uncle Mojo and fan favorite Patch round out the field and I've tossed them both from contention at my own risk.  

So what to do with this?  As I said, I see Backyard Heaven as a heavy favorite and I'm singling him on all my tickets.

Exacta:  $2 Bet 6 OVER 1-3-5  for $6.   I'd expect the 1-3-5 will all be >6-1 and should easily return my opportunity cost.  

Trifecta:  $2 Bet  6 OVER 1-3-8-9 OVER 1-3-5-7-8-9 for $40.  Dropping the 7 altogether takes the bet to $32.

Good news:  The handicapping holiday refreshed both me and my love of the game.  The bad news:  I'm a bit rusty, so no betting the mortgage on my ramblings.

Good luck, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Hal's Hope Grade 3 at Gulfstream Park

Out of the Handicapper Hibernation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our tenth year of providing free handicapping to people who never asked for it.  Before I start to blather, I'd like to thank the good folks at The Thorofan and the The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for welcoming me today as guest handicapper.

What's with the bear?  I like to take a siesta from handicapping every year, usually just after the Clark Handicap when Churchill's late year season is wrapping up.  This past year I shut it down right after the Breeders' Cup.  I have always found these extended handicapper holiday's helpful to me to clear my mind and reset.  I haven't a clue who's on the Kentucky Derby trail, didn't pay any attention to the Pegasus World Cup, nothing, no racing, no handicapping, no blogging.  I do indeed feel fresh and ready to get back after it.  I'm not much of a young 3 YO gambler, I prefer the handicap division with older horses and today's Hal's Hope, 1 Mile over Dirt for 4 Year Olds and Up fills the bill.

Let's get after it!

This is obviously not peak racing season. This is a time of the year where trainers are just shaking the farm rest out of the their handicap division, while others, the journeyman horses, are just running and can only dream about a long romp in a pasture.  My ROI in early season is so-so, especially when I try to get fancy.  I will not be getting fancy here.

The weather may be wet Saturday and it bears watching.  You can find the scratches and changes and track conditions by following this link.  The Gulfstream website was clearly not set up for horseplayers, it is a messy jumble.

I don't see this race as very complex:  There is a clear line of quality runners that are on the outskirts, but in the Grade 1 conversation, and then a few that barely belong in graded stakes competition.  

As my chart shows, I think you can throw a blanket over the likelihood that Malagacy, Send It In or Economic Model can win.  While the odds are similar, I do however like them in the order I listed.

Malagacy had a long break after leaving the Derby Trail in April last year. This is his second off the long break, something Pletcher wins 17% of the time. He'll be very early speed and it's just a question if he can carry.  

Send It In is off a break since last April and this is his first start, something Pletcher is actually 33% good at  in 87 tries.  The six year old Big Brown New York Bred is 14 of 15 on Fast Dirt in the money.  Expect him on the ticket.

Trainer Chad Brown brings the inconsistent 5 YO Economic Model in off a long layoff since October, something Brown wins 28% of the time on 160 tries.  It's really staggering Brown's stat's by the way:  30% winner on 202 tries Won Last Start, 26% of Routes on 652 tries.  

Just below that top group is Irish War Cry, Derby Trail darling on the shelf since a dull PA Derby in September.  Motion is a deliberate trainer, but this is his backyard and I think this is just a tune up with low expectations other than a good run. I need to see something first, but class alone makes him dangerous from Place down.  

Trainer Donna Green has no wins in 4 tries at Graded Stakes in past year and her runner Conquest Big E will be big early pace but should falter to better runners late.  Should.  Show or 4th not unreasonable if hunting value.

The gelded Street Sense 5 YO, Tower of Texas goes on a Turf to Dirt switch for Roger Attfield which feels like an unsure test.  Where he finishes, your guess is as good as mine.

As I said, nothing fancy for me this time of year.  I'll be looking at Exacta's built off my base handicap and I'll use the Tote Board to help me build a bet worth betting.  I'm thinking no more than 5 separate $2 combinations for $10 total and all of them with a 4-1 or better Tote Board Post Time odds on top.  

Have fun with the races friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Monmouth inc. Haskell

Irish War Cry- Horse Racing Nation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  My horse racing engagement was cut short this weekend with the Little Turk's U-19 Soccer team playing in a tournament.  With the team laying a rare egg, I was free to spend sometime looking at the Haskell and the two Grade 3's late on the Monmouth Card, the Molly Pitcher and the Matchmaker.

I'm very impressed by this year's Triple Crown crop of runners.  The runners exiting the Kentucky Derby this year have been competitive and are a fun group.  I don't really care where they rank in terms of past years and I don't care.  That's the sort of stupid discussion that takes place on Twitter that I couldn't be bothered with.  I'm sure it's the same with every sport, you get these elitists, either insiders or on the periphery of the inside, who feel like someone put them in charge of moderating all horse racing conversations.  I'd rather no one ever read this Blog than kiss some of these "expert's" asses to get mentioned.  They do nothing to help  market or grow this sport, they seem only content to let other's know they are serious horse racing observers (fan would be beneath them).  The new way to denigrate a blog like mine is to label it "tout".  Tout is a four letter word and that's what these serious people think of anyone who writes about handicapping or gambling, unless it's their friend who's the tout.

Yes, the Turk doesn't give a hoot about these experts.

Let's get it on!




These are some pretty interesting fields.  The Molly Pitcher is a complete mystery to me.  None of these fillies and mares seems to want to win when I watch on video.

I'm really looking forward to how Miss Temple City and War Flag hook up in The Matchmaker.  I like what I see from War Flag.

In the Haskell, we have a very deep field and I'm backing Timeline and Irish War Cry as the class of the bunch.

I doubt I make a $36 bet, but it will be some variation of what I have there in my handicap.  Keep your eye on conditions and scratches and changes.  The dirt is fast and the turf is good.


Race 12: The Haskell Grade 1:  1 1/8 Miles on Dirt

Iowa Derby G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



Ohio Derby G3: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Wood Memorial G2:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt



Affirmed G3 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt- four horse, paceless




Pegasus G3:  1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt




Dwyer G3:  1 Mile on Fast Dirt.




Race 11:  The Matchmaker G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

OC 50K  1 1/16 Turf 18 June 2017 Mth:  War Flag



The 2016 Matriarch G1: 1 Mile on Turf



Race 10:  Molly Pitcher G3 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt

Fleur De Lis G2:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt- Carrumba



Lady's Secret Stakes 76K:  1 Mile 70 yards on Fast Dirt



DuPont Distaff G3:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt



Have fun friends,

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Grade 1 Pick 3 (race 9-10-11) at Belmont Park

Spectacular, Spectacular!  Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year.  We specialize in old school handicapping based on a derivative of the style Tom Ainsile, Brad Free and Steve Davidowitz.  Old School: Class, Pace, Conditions, Tactical Speed.

I love the big days.  I get excited at seeing the best in the sport race on the same day, and in our declining sport, these days are fewer and fewer and less and less spectacular.  This isn't the blog that analyzes ways to improve the sport.  If you unfortunately wandered into this blog all you can expect is no BS, no bravado, free opinions that will reward you  the opportunity to turn big piles of cash into slightly smaller piles of cash more often then not.  That's the game, its stacked mostly against players.  Be diligent, be smart, bet and handicap with consistency and with time, skill and luck, you'll scratch out a break even or positive ROI, return on investment.  It's very cool if you just like to drop a few bets every year with friends.  In that case, ignore me, and my picks are in the chart below.  If you're a horse player more than a few times a year, work at your craft, study the losses as much as you study the wins, bet responsibly and have fun.

The Belmont isn't a race I particularly like to handicap, with it's extra quarter mile and long straight, it's been a bit of a graveyard for me.  When I stepped back after handicapping, I thought I'd share my all Grade 1 Pick 3 (Race 9-10-11) with you instead of trying to read the tea leaves on a race 11 exotic.

Multi Race betting is a great way to think about the card horizontally , with less of a focus on single race vertical slotting.  As an exotic player, I can typically roll through a card pretty quickly if I'm just identifying exacta possibilities, and that's how I approach multi race horizontal bets, just as a series of exacta's.  How many you cover, taking a strong view and singling,  and how much value you can find, is always the key.

Let's get after this!

Race 9-10-11;  First Post 4:41 ET






In Race 9 we have the Grade 1 Met Mile.  I'm still not sure I'm happy the race moved from Memorial Day, but again, this isn't the sort of blog that has much credibility with such topics, you can find all sorts of haughty, elitist opinions if you try harder.

I have 5 horses in my Exacta possibles, with two covers for the Pick 3.  I don't think I'm really offering value as I suspect both Sharp Azteca and Mor Spirit will both be bet hard.  Rally Cry, a Pletcher/Velazquez Up  combo, is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and BEL and the 4 YO Uncle Mo colt will be 3rd or 4th on the Tote Board.  Economic Model/7 goes Blinkers off, something Trainer Chad Brown has mixed sucess with at 17%, but its his second effort off a long layoff and Brown is 28% on that angle and he's a hot 30% on dirt.  Mark Casse's Awesome Slew will also be 4-6 on the tote board and has a fantastic late burst, on display in his last two races at 7f.

In Race 10, we have one of the premier turf races of the year, The G1 Manhattan. I also am covering horses here that should be bet heavily.  Beach Patrol, winner of G1 Secretariat on Arlington Million Day 2016, is a front runner less of a late turn of footer and I typically prefer the latter to the former over a route of grass.  Time Test (GB) has monster numbers and Chad Brown's Juddmonte invader may be setting up for a big summer.  This may be the race he steps forward and joins his barn's plans.  Leparoux's choice of mounts, World Approval, a beauty of a 5 YO Northern Afleet, must be respected.  Three horses I think represent opportunity and value: Potemkin (Ger), on Lasix for first time, and Divisidero, both have great late moves.  I'm not covering and may regret it, Sadler's Joy from the 9 spot.

In Race 11, The G1 Belmont Stakes, The Turk looks at Tapwrit and can't help but think, why not? He came late in the Kentucky Derby, Late in the Blue Grass, Late in Tampa Bay Derby and SF Davis.  He'll have a long straight and targets to aim for.  Pletcher's Graded Stakes over past year down to 17%.  Looking at Lee and Irish War Cry are obvious choices but not very wiseguy of me.  Solid is still solid, don't buy into that feeling you have have to be wiseguy-ish.  This is the sort of race where there are a lot of similar runners so don't be shocked by the winner, no matter what the price.

So what to do?  Have fun with it.  Find some value on the toteboard with what I suggested here or with your own handicapping.  I'm not sure what I'll do:  I may try to single one of these races  and cover a few more Belmont Stakes runners.  I'll pay a few exactas working off my base handicap and the toteboard, not getting sentimental about the names or the human connections but thinking of value propositions only.  I'd rather gamble $20 with a 10% chance of winning >$100 then gamble $36 with a 45% chance of winning $50.  The numbers may be skewed but you get the idea.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby G1 plus Video Review of Prep Races

Classic Empire: Photo by Rick Samuels with appreciation for its use

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Kentucky Derby is such a big, fun, and inclusive day on the race calendar.  Friends and family that never talk horse racing suddenly stop their lives each first Saturday in May for a chance at picking the winner in the fastest two minutes in sports.  Little do they realize how many other great racing days their are in the calendar year, but I don't blame them: The sport is not really run by anyone.  In my own home stake, political appointed hacks make most of the decisions.  The sport is at the mercy of track owners who only care about their small slice of life, the mostly 1% 'ers who own the horses for their own reasons, and that leaves the fans a sport that is poorly promoted, contracted and not grown, and feel good moments squandered. If your looking for answers, you are reading the wrong blog!  This horse racing fan has no magic dust or great ideas other than to repeat over and over again that a single central body should be in charge and make decisions for the best of the sport.

For my readers, you know how little I pay attention to three year old prep races.  To me, it creates an opportunity that comes with some downside.  The opportunity is I am free of the hype.  I didn't even watch the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race that closely, as I dislike 2 YO racing more than I like 3 YO racing.  The names mean almost nothing to me.  When I sat down with the DRF Formulator Past Performances (which I set up to grey out horses not within 1 length of the lead at first call and times given in fractions at the different calls) I had a true beginners min in Zen terms.

Twenty horses: sensory overload.  I miss the days when these Triple Crown babies had 10+ starts by this time.  The more ink the better.  The downside of my stance is you can miss stuff when you pay no attention to media reports.  Little things, important things, like Girvin's quarter crack issues.  So, one qualifier on my position is I will try to read clocker reports (I won't pay for the service even though the best ones are at a premium and deserve to be paid), I'll pay attention to some serious horse player twitter feeds, and I'll avoid Bloodhorse, DRF and ESPN fluff pieces about the connections, a sick kid, etc. etc. etc.  I love sick kids, would give anything to help them, but I'm a sucker for sentimental things like that and sentimentality and handicapping should never mix.

Anyway's, I don't plan on rambling too much today.  I'll get 1000X my normal hits today and all anyone wants to see is if this idiot has the same picks as they do.  Let's start with watching all the major prep races just to get a feel.  The track is expected to be sloppy and the weather not very good. My base handicap downplays the track conditions a bit but its a wildcard.


Arkansas Derby





Florida Derby




UAE Derby




Spiral Stakes




Wood Memorial




Louisiana Derby




Sunland Derby





Bluegrass Stakes







Another thing this handicapper does his best to avoid until he makes his own decisions are Morning Lines.  It's just another handicappers bias.  When you handicap as much as I do, you start to gain an appreciation for the people you think are really good, and the people you wonder what game are they watching.  Out of respect, I don't talk about the good or the bad ones.  The overriding point is make your own morning line based on your own handicapping.  Use the toteboard as a way to see what the betting public thinks.  On a day like today, a lot of dumb money plays the track.  Be smart, place your bets near post time, watch the moves on the tote after the post parade, and be smart:  Why chase favorites on a Win bet, or worse, a Show bet (that was for you Mother Turk).

I cam away picking a group of horses that I will be playing in the Super High Five, my favorite handicapper challenge.  I have 10 horses who have a shot at the Top 5 spots.  If you boxed 10 horses for the Super Hi-Five it would cost for a $2 bet more money than most luxury SUVs.  You have to build a matrix and hope for the best.  Someone outside of this top 10 will screw up the works, but again, that's why its called gambling.

In layers I like Classic Empire, Hence and Irap   followed by Always Dreaming and McCraken, followed by Sonneteer, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Thundersnow and Girvin.

In my expected to screw me up group are the C+ horses led by Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Patch.

I won't bore you too much with the why's and why not's, just a few thoughts:

• Pioneerof the Nile's son, Classic Empire, was a beast in my favorite prep, the Arkansas Derby.  Trainer Mark Casse has been building towards the pinnacle of racing for sometime. Not sure I like Leparoux up but I'll defer to smarter minds. 
• I love how the O'Neill/Reddam team were flat at Sunland Derby and came right back in the Blue Grass, so much more relevant again on dirt.  Irap, a Tiznow son, could surprise.  
• Calumet Farms is finally relevant again.  I wish they still had the devil red silks, but you can't have everything.  I loved Hence at the Sunland Derby and I like him here.
• Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming is a serious contender.  Don't take my positioning the wrong way.  He could easily win, but I'm contrarian by nature. 
• Sonneteer is a long shot I like to be moving forward at the 1/8 pole instead of backwards.  He may bring some real value in 5th or 4th spot.  
• Gunnevera will eat a lot of dirt in his face today with his running style.  My making a gamble that he doesn't have the will to finish strong by the end but the downside risk he makes the top 5.  

There's 20 horses; You can't pick everyone in your exotics, you can't cover and box the field, well you can, it just wouldn't be reasonably financially.  Have fun picking horses.  Just like we say at our Catholic Church, we hope you enjoy it enough to come more than Christmas and Easter, and I hope to see you reading the Turk more often than Derby Day.  

So what is the Turk going to do?  

Have fun

Bet responsibly

I'm going to bet the Pick 3 (Race 10-11-12).  If your new to the sport, these multi-race bets are a fun way to enjoy the track experience and quite frankly you can be pretty successful even as a novice if you cover the favorites and throw a value horse in as well.  Don't waste too much money chasing the big exotics like a Super Hi-5.  The Trifecta and Exacta bets will pay well, especially if a value horse sneaks in .  

If I was betting, here is two versions of a Super High 5 and  Exacta bet.  I'm partial to the $48 exacta and the $134 Super High Five (a power ball ticket with a much smaller pot). 

Turk Out!