Post Race Analysis of The Arlington Million Pick 5

I dreamed last night that my losing tickets were shredded and used as confetti on my "loser parade". Yeah, I had a bad day. As a handicapper you know it will happen, but it's been some time since I had such a spectacularly bad day.

The Turk has rules, rules I take seriously, but being human I sometimes break my rules. The key rule broken yesterday is to bet easier marks than an all turf, all Stake races, Pick 5 with Past Performances littered with Europeans and the turf less than firm. If there is any analysis to be performed, that is it. I knew these would be hard races but I didn't anticipate how much blood would be shed.

I've been a Little Mike fan for two years now but I would have never picked him to win a Million. As a horse fan, I'm happy for the connections of this Florida bred. It reminds me how these animals have brains and instincts and guts and those intangibles can't be ignored.

My thoughts are with the Live Oak connections today as Zo Impressive was vanned off after the Alabama in Saratoga. This Hard Spun daughter and Grade 1 winner didnt seem comfortable and still had the guts to finish fourth. Hard Spun and Little Mike remind me alot of each other.

Speaking of Hard Spun, his British born daughter, Questing is turning into quite the freak, winning her second Grade 1 on the track her father won the Kings Bishop on in 2007.

Whenever I have a day like yesterday my confidence as a bettor can be shaken. Confidence is a key component in what I do, and when I feel a lack of confidence I find myself betting timidly. I find the best medicine is to just back after it, picking winners and exactas. I'll head to Fort Erie Tuesday night and take in the early evening post times to get the mojo going again.

Not much reason to break these races down too much. I'll follow some of the horses out of these races and see what I can do with them next time out.









2012 Arlington Million Grade 1






2012 Beverly D. Grade 1



2012 Alabama Grade 1



2007 King's Bishop Grade 1



The Turk's red pen will rest today. Even horses get sent to the farm to recover now and then, I think I will retreat to the back 40 for a cigar.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis of the Mother Goose and Hollywood Oaks

Zo Impressive, the NY bred daughter of Hard Spun, nips Disposablepleasure at the wire of the Grade 1 Mother Goose. Prerace I settled on a bet strategy of putting Disposablepleasure on top of an exacta with Contested and Believe You Can in the Place Spot. I actually dropped Contested based her toteboard ranking but bet Disposablepleasure over Believe You Can and Zo Impressive for two $2 exacta tickets. I'm not a big fan of five horse races, but it was obvious there were four quality fillies in this race and the top two were not the ones I expected, but again, I am even now looking forward to The Alabama more than I was.

In hindsight the pace profile I expected from Contested and Believe You Can held up; :23/:46.47 / 1:11.28, it was the runners that cracked.

The Hollywood Oaks was another nip at the wire by Potesta over Eden's Moon.



This is the race I would normally have bet, but I just couldn't get my hands around the middle layer of horses: Via Villaggio, Starlight Magic and Eden's Moon, who I was less high on than the betting public that put her atop the tote board. My base handicap was good enough to string together a Superfecta, but I doubt I would have went six deep so this is a case of winning money by not losing money.

Willa B Awesome checked pretty hard in along the rail. I'll be happy to come back to her again. I wanted to see more from Killer Graces than we did. Eden's Moon bounced back nicely after the Kentucky Oaks flop and Potesta, in only her third start looks special.



2012 Mother Goose G1


2012 Hollywood Oaks G2


Have a good Sunday, Turk Out!