The Nomination Is In: The Gamely Grade 1 at Santa Anita

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) Four year old's and Up over (generally) Routes of Grass up to the Classic Distance.  How is that for a niche blog POV writing about a niche sport in decline?  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

19 Seasons of Blogging.  I'm not sure if that is an accomplishment or a sad indictment on my life's choices.  I thought Horse Racing was in decline culturally in 2007, and in hindsight the loss of racetracks and the drop in handle should have made it obvious what was coming.  

The statistics are sobering.  There are years when I wonder why I do what I do, but the fact is, I love the animals.  The people, some I like, most I don't, but these equine athletes are who I am loyal to and who I love.   They were bred to run, and while I mourn the race track deaths, without racing, these animals wouldn't be bred at all.  

Where are we now? Total handle on US Thoroughbred racing in 2025 was $11 billion — a sobering number when you put it next to when I started in 2007. 

Here's the big picture:

• 2003 peak: $15.2 billion
• 2007: $14.7 billion
• 2025: $11.0 billion

When factoring in inflation, betting handle has fallen about 57% over the last 22 years. 2025 marked the sixth time in the last seven years that handle has fallen. 

The number of US races fell below 30,000 for the first time since the mid-1950s.

There are many reasons for this, with Computer Assisted Wagering near the top of my list as a player, plus shortsighted and foolish human leadership.  

The one bright spot: bettors wagered more per race than any year in history besides the Covid year of 2020 — so the people still playing are betting more, there are just far fewer of them.

To me, the bigger issue is the loss of racetracks.  While we still have most of the major tracks, they are supported by smaller tracks all over the country, and those are disappearing.  No fewer than 49 racetracks have closed since 2000, and at least a dozen of those closures have come since Covid in 2020 alone. I never thought in my lifetime we'd see Aqueduct, Arlington Park, Hialeah, Hollywood Park and Golden Gate Fields all gone, and that's just to name a few.  

Arlington Park in Illinois after 94 years, Golden Gate Fields in California after 83 years, and Freehold Raceway in New Jersey after 171 years. On the West Coast, Hollywood Park closed in 2013 after 75 years and Bay Meadows closed in 2008 after 74 years.

Since 2000, 41 racetracks permanently closed, with 26 of those within the last 10 years. In contrast, only 2 new racetracks with casinos opened. 

The blunt bottom line: the industry has lost roughly one track every five months for 25 years straight, with almost nothing opening to replace them. Kentucky is essentially the last island of health in the sport, propped up by casino and Historical Horse Racing money, while the rest of the country contracts. 

Combined with the handle data — $15.2 billion in 2003 down to $11 billion in 2025 — it paints a picture of an industry that has lost nearly half its infrastructure and about 30% of its wagering base in a single generation.

When I was growing up in the late 1970's and early 1980's, Formula One, Horse Racing and Heavy Weight Boxing were my favorite sports.  I read the sports page of the newspaper and I was a Sports Illustrated subscription holder and I watched ABC Wide World of Sports.  All three of those sports were headed for the dustbin of irrelevancy, but Formula One figured it out and it's booming, while Boxing is a shell of itself and horse racing infighting and lack of real leadership is killing the sport before our eyes.  

F1 Values (USD)

But I digress, you came to maybe read about 3 year old and up Fillies and Mares in the Grade 1 Comely and I'm writing the obituary of horse racing.  It may die, but not today! Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I'll come back and update the chart at my blog when they publish the Morning Lines.  I don't use Morning Lines for handicapping but I like them for reference against my fair odds.  

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure he shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving him out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding him to Place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Frank E. Kilroe Mile G1 at Santa Anita

Mi Hermano Ramon: Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog where I write about turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I've been a horse racing fan most of my life, but didn't seriously start to handicap until 1986, and I've been doing it ever since.  The blog started in 2008 and continues on as a labor of love.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for offering me a chance to share my thoughts on this race with you today.  

The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is a prestigious Grade 1 turf race held annually at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Named in honor of Frank Kilroe, a longtime racing secretary and influential figure in California horse racing, the race is contested at 8 furlongs over grass and is open to horses aged four years and older. It was raced at about the classic distance of 10 furlongs until 1987 before becoming a mile event. The event is held on Big Cap Day, Santa Anita Handicap, one of the biggest and most prestigious cards of the year at the great race place.  

First run in 1960, the race was originally known as the Arcadia Handicap before being renamed in 2001 to recognize Kilroe’s contributions to the sport. Over the decades, it has attracted some of the finest turf milers in horse racing history, including champions such as Lure, Wise Dan, and Gio Ponti and the filly, Proviso. 

The Frank Kilroe Mile remains a key race on turf racing calendar. It  serves as an important early-season test for elite turf horses. Santa Anita’s scenic backdrop and fast turf course makes the Kilroe Mile an early season turf racing kick off for this handicapper as the pickings over grass are pretty slim this time of the year, and its a good handle day with the Big Cap bettors.

You'll find scratches and changes here.  The weather should be good with no rain expected until Sunday.  I'm going to assume we are on the turf track and the turf is firm.  

Let's Get after It!

1 Feb 2025 The Thunder Road G3: 1 Mile on Firm Turf SA.  Air Force Red (Show), El Potente (W), Zio Jo (4th), Cabo Spirit (5th/9th)

26 December 2024 The San Gabriel G2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SA.  Mi Hermano Ramon (Place)

So what to do with all of this?  My instincts at the track would be to pass.  I really think as I handicapped there is ~ 66% chance the top two bet horses finish Win/Place.  The play for me here is to hope one of them finishes third.

1, 3 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 a $2 Exacta for $16.  If "winning" is important to you, not a bad bet selection.  If you want a long term ROI, tighten it up and take a stand:  Drop Mi Hermano Ramon to Show and single El Portente and now you have 3 over 5-6-7, a $2 Exacta for $6.  As your handicapping gets better, your hit rate will get better.   Why 5-6-7, lower morning odds horses?  Forget the Morning Line, build your own and look for horses that will be bet less on the tote board that have not so different odds than others, especially name recognition horses (Air Force Red, Cabo Spirit, Formidable Man). 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and Recapping Shoemaker Mile

Delahaye-Barbara D. Livingston

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in handicapping older horses running over routes of grass, and I typically formulate exact bets around them. 

 Last week I talked about the struggles I've had this year with my work, and how it was affecting my handicapping. I've taken some time over the last few weeks to really concentrate on rediscovering a balance in my work-life balance. It will never be 50-50, that's just not how I approach my profession, but I've learned I can only sustain 90-10 for so long, and for me I've been clipping along at that rate for seven months, dating back to November 2023. I realized if I didn't take steps to clear my head and take balance back (the job won't give, only takes) I would burnout and be broken. Handicapping is a part of the balance. It doesn't seem like much, but hours go into one of these blog posts. I watch video, I update my databases, I pour over paste performances and race charts. A gambler can't do this, it's too much time. A track handicapper can't do this, it takes too much time. It gives me an edge, but low volume. Regardless, the mental escape it gives me is worth every second and takes nothing away from work. 

There was a time when I was wildly high volume, banging out whole cards at a time.  I respect that, but it wasn't for me.  I like to engage on one isolated segment of the sport, in this case, Turf racing older horses, primarily routes, because it allows a few things I enjoy:  larger fields, less focus than dirt which allows greater overlay potential, and just as important, identifying underlays, and then finally, really good older horses I can spend several years following.  I still think one of the greatest problems in our sport is the premature retirement to the breeding shed, denying casual fans a chance to get excited about known quantities.   I generally leave the "state of horse racing" stuff to people much more knowledgeable than me, but that's the Turk's two cents.  

So recapping, I'm placing an effort on handicapping each weekend a turf route that interests me.  Lets get after today's focus, the grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs.  The weather should be dry and warm.  Pay attention to track conditions and scratches and changes here. 

The Mint Julep G3; 1 1/16 Mile Firm Turf; Santa Anita  

   

The Turk never looks at Morning Lines as a tool for handicapping when I'm blogging.  I only look at the morning line after the handicap is complete and I'm building my fair odds assessment.  I had the top three exactly as Daily Race Form did.  Always pay attention to the tote board to get a feel for where the action is headed as post time approaches.  Remember, handicapping and bet construction are two very different things.  I'm not interested in building an exacta with a 2-1 over a 9-2 and neither should you.  Winning battles and losing wars is where that approach will get you.  When I first starting writing my blog, I struggled with the perception that if I wasn't "right" in my handicap, I'd lose credibility.  No, nailing $3 dollar will pays is not something to aspire for.  I'd rather lose six out of 10 races to make those four wins meaningful.  It doesn't often work out like that, but you get the idea.  I don't encourage normal fans to bet beyond what they are prepared to lose. The game is stacked against you.  The morning line odds added up to 129%.  I've routinely seen them up to 135%.  That's the track take, parimutuel at work, getting bigger and bigger as the handle slips and overhead and inflation rising.  Adjusting back to fair line odds is your best chance to identify those gems.  Sadly, I don't think I did here today.

So what to do with all of this?  The best two horses in my opinion are early speed, Delahaye and Heavenly Sunday.  Chad Brown's (23% turf winner, 20% graded stakes) Delahaye is 3 for 3 at the distance, 4 of 5 Turf races has hit the exacta.  Adding a 1/16 of a mile.  $550,000 price tag at Auction, by far the class of the race.  Expect this 2-1 to be bet down, maybe even to 6-5.  In this case I want that.  I have to make a choice:  Who is the best late speed?  my identified choices are:  Excellent Question (Walsh saddles I. Ortiz-21% at CD) but isn't very classy; Fuente Ovejuna (GB) with Walsh/Dettori Up, 1 win in 9 starts at this distance; Henrietta Topham, 6 YO, modest connections but training sharp, first race back since October 2023; Immensitude (Fr) with conditioner Bill Mott, and Prat up, goes in second start of career in North America.  Remember, all of these options have fur on them, if they didn't they would be overvalued as well.

I'm going to put Immensitude/6 OVER Heavenly Sunday/8 and Excellent Question/5.  Delahaye will get added to the ticket depending on the tote board.

This is a $2 bet for either $4 or $6.  

Finally, last week's handicap (I didn't bet) was the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.  I needed to get my handicapping chops working again. 

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 27May 2024 Santa Anita Park; 1 mile Firm Turf

The Nomination Is In: The Shoemaker Mile G1 at Santa Anita

 

Bill and Wilt

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  I'm taking the opportunity on Memorial Day to do what has been rare for me this year, write.  The Turk doesn't like to talk about work too much, but I've been very busy.  On December 31st one of facilities suffered an operational error, a spill of hazardous liquid.  It should have never happened, but it did.  Every process and procedure we had in place failed us.  When you face failure you can recoil from it or go at it head on.  It's a thought that is on my mind this Memorial Day, the idea of the bravest soldiers running towards gunfire and not away from it.  What I do isn't life or death like those brave souls who lost their lives and whom we remember today,  but it still affects me.  It's almost 5 full months since the event, things are mostly under control now, and the Turk who has worked almost every day for five months straight, is taking the opportunity today to enjoy his favorite sport, run over grass, and to forget, even if just for a little while, the real world at the door.

Another person who had to face the real world almost from the time he was born is Bill Shoemaker, whom today's Shoemaker Mile G1 is named after. Born so small, there was serious fear he would survive.  Kept warm in a shoebox, Bill used the tools that God gave him to amass 8,833 wins.  Think about that another way: Santa Anita has 11 races today.  If the Great Race Place ran everyday, for 803 days straight, he would win every race every day to equal that mark.  That just floors me.  11 Triple Crown Wins and a Breeders' Cup Classic.  Hall of Fame 1958!  Paralyzed from the neck down in a car crash, he continued his life, training horses and writing pulp fiction with Dick Francis.  I think we have seen the apex of horse racing within our cultural horizon.  It's a sport that just doesn't appeal to the youth of America, not even recent Triple Crown's could reverse the damage done.  It's too bad really, but each generation chooses what it cares about and the days of a jock like Willie Shoemaker being at the same cultural relevance as other celebrities of our day is over.  Enjoy it while it still exists.  

Let's Get After this!

The weather looks gorgeousweather looks gorgeous in Arcadia today so expect a firm turf course.  As of right now there are no scratches or changes but you can keep your eyes herehere.  

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

I'm not going to prattle on too much about this one.  Let's look at De Jour last time out.  Also keep your eye on Easter and Goliad.  

The Kilroe Mile G1;  3 March 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf.  

Now Johannes, War At Sea, Irideo and Air Force Red (easier company in the G3)

The American G3; 4 April 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf 

Baffert saddles De Jour, not someone I think of on turf, has Prat up and they are 25% winners in 20 tries at SA.  Baffert himself is a 10% winner on turf.  

Lots of early speed in this one.  I'm just going to be watching as I get back into the swing of my handicapping.  I've been handicapping for nearly 40 years, yet I still have to dust off and get into a rhythm, which I know I'm not currently in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap G1

 

Newgrange: Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets.    While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed.  Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who asked me to write for this week's Handicappers Corner, I'm writing about the Santa Anita Handicap this week.  

If you haven't seen, the race has been moved to Sunday due to rain concerns Saturday.  I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.  

I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one.  I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos.  I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites.  To me, that makes things simpler.  I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off.  I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter.  I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. 

Let's Get After It!

Santa Anita Handicap aka The Big Cap:  1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

  

17 November 2023 CD; ALW $125,000 N1X 1 1/16 Fast Dirt 

Highland Falls (2 back) win as chalk.

13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt San Pasqual G2;  Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto

4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2; Salesman (Ire) 

I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity;  Watch the San Pasqual and tell me if you see any kinks in Newgrange armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question.  Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less.  I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there.  

Highland Falls ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company.  He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the Curlin in him bodes well.  

I only see Newgate and Salesman (Ire)  as the only other possible winners.  

Salesman has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since Breeders' Cup Saturday.  26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt.  His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire.  Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.

Baffert has two in the race with Reincarnate and Newgate.  I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like Newgrange, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January.  

I don't think much of Reincarnate.  Mixto has 1 win in 9 dirt starts.  Sadler's Subsanador (Arg) is a wild card and a value add to exacta.  

So what to do with all this?  I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of Highland Farms OVER Salesman/Subsanador and Newgrange, a $2 bet for $6.  

I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid.  I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on Salesman and Subsanador for $4 doesn't bother me.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Gamely G1 at Santa Anita

 

Queen Goddess- Benoit (Thank you)

Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and place exacta bets.  

Happy Memorial Day.  We honor our war dead and those who gave the greatest sacrifice in the name of serving their country.  This blog is written by a war veteran.  My Dad, and my Grandfather, were both war veterans.  I can only speak for myself, but war rhetoric has no place in modern American politics.   A disproportionate amount of middle class and lower income men and women, whose parents are not politicians will die needlessly in the chess game of elites who have big mouths but lack guts.  This blog is apolitical, but fiercely anti-war.  Stop the rhetoric, Democrat and Republican, and defuse global tensions before its too late.

Today let's take a look at the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita.  I would have liked a slightly bigger field, but there is some real quality runners in this field.  Let's get after it!

 

 Royal Heroine G2; 1 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf

 

The Wilshire G3; 30 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf  

  Buena Vista Stakes G2; March 4 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Good Turf  

  RJ Frankel G3; 31 December 2022 SA 1 1/8 Miles on Good Turf  

  Allowance $99K; 21 April 2023 KEE 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf

As I've said many times, I don't handicap with the Morning Lines.  I don't look at the Morning Lines before I prepare my Fair Odds, and by then I have already handicapped.  I was shocked to see  5-2 on Viareggio (Ire).  I posted the Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) 4 YO last race, a $99K Allowance at Keeneland in Mid April.  Solid late close.  A really good ride by Gaffalione who isn't up today for Trainer Brendan Walsh.  First time at Santa Anita.  4 of 12 in exacta on Turf, all wins.  1 Win in 1 start at distance.  Seemed a bit rich at this point in her career.  

Queen Goddess to me is the top choice.  I'm choosing to look past her Jenny Wiley, which the Turk picked her third in and rightly so, as she was in deep like the rest of the field that day against a very sharp In Italian (GB).   Cutting back, the 5 YO purchased for a whopping $1.5 MM and career earnings of $770,000 (sounds like my bankroll to winnings ratio!) is 7 of 10 in turf exactas, 3 of 3 in SA exactas, and last outing at SA a win on New Years Eve in the RJ Frankel. 

I think any of Macadamia (Brz) (slight edge) or Viareggio (Ire) and Quattroelle (Ire) could hit the exacta.  Macadamia ran April 30 at 1 Mile at SA in The Wilshire and ran exceptionally well.  The 5 YO seems to have found a new level this year.  Quattroelle beat Macadamia two back in the G2 Buena Vista, also 1 Mile at SA.  9 of 16 in Turf exactas, 7 of 11 in SA Turf exactas, 1 win in 4 tries at 1 Mile.  Viareggio is a flyer, but I'm not a big fan of taking a flyer on an overhyped, over bet, 2nd time NA start horse.  

If I'm looking for bigger value, Trainer Carla Gaines  Closing Remarks: A win two back in the Royal Heroine at 1 Mile at SA  in early April before faltering late as the chalk in The Wilshire.  Same early and Late Timeform Pace Figs as Quattroelle.  The 5 YO is off to a good 2023 but is 7 of 13 in the exacta at SA, 4 of 5 in the exacta at the distance and 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf.  

School Dance isn't my choice to back in the exacta but not out of question for Tri or Exotics.  I tossed Bellamore who does have a good late turn of foot.

$2 Bet, Queen Goddess/Macadamia OVER Closing Remarks and Quatroelle for $8 and my alternative is Closing Remarks OVER Quattroelle, Viareggio, Macadamia and Queeen Goddess , a $2 Bet for $8.  I think I like my alternative better for value.  

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap

Defunded: Benoit 

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today.  My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.  I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus.  I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.

Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows.  Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower.  That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?.  Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface.  If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.  

Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics:  Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good?  Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun?  I'm no gambling whale.  I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person.  All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun.  I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.

Let's get after it!

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP

I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.

The San  Pasqual Grade 2:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023

Pegasus World Cup G1:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023

 

 The San Antonio Grade 2:  1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA:  26 December 2022

So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.  

Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class.  Good mix of early tactical and late speed.  Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January.  J Hernandez is up and  26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners.   5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.  

Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30  May 2022

A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking.  Different race, different field, different point in horse form.

Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year.  Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level.  Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot.  First SA start.  Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire.    Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.  

Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping.  Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2.  Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here.  4 YO and already $750K earnings.  5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt.  Pay attention to tote board. 

Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money.  Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone.  Dangerous.  Fast early/solid late speed.  Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper.  1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.

There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win  last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February.  Sharp work on 18 February.  2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes.  6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes.  Solid, not spectacular. 

Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner.  Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA.  Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%.  Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth.  9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.  

And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here.  Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run.    A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?  

6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late.  Really comes down to how this one plays out.  

I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy.  I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later.  Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.  

I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta.  I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.

If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet.  I'll be clear and place the $10 bet. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The San Marcos Grade 3 at Santa Anita

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where we focus on handicapping and exacta betting of Turf Horse Races.  

Every year, when I'm mentally engaged, and that engagement has returned for me, I enjoy the progression of races , and the horse athletes.  It helps your handicapping tremendously to follow the flow of the Conditions Book  and where the Trainers bring their runners next.  Getting second and third looks at these horses really allows you to project ahead and find those overlays that every horse player needs to make up for the inevitable misses.  One I've been tracking is that beautiful Grey/Roan pictured, The Grey Wizard (Ire).  Motion and Velazquez have a lot of horse, only 2 races into the geldings 4 YO campaign, and already the resume is impressive:  A Place in a G3 and G2 and a very impressive  1 1/4 Turf Allowance win last time out here at Santa Anita (video below).  If you play the horses long enough you get to watch 3-4 year careers at best, and that's one reason I like turf racing as they tend to race longer.  My favorite part of the sport is watching horses like Dicey Mo Chara succeed, and horses like The Grey Wizard to emerge.  Each race is an opportunity for that, and the progression these horses will take through the calendar, across the meets, just adds to it.  It's a great sport if it can ever be managed in a more unified fashion.  Anyways, I leave those sorts of topics for more professional writers, and I stick to my thing.  Let's get after it!

The San Marcos Grade 3: 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill Turf Course for 4 YO and Up

 

I've added a new column to my analysis beginning with this race.  As I've always done, I adjust the Morning Line to percentage which includes track takeout, the ever increasing tack takeout, and from there I adjust the ML to 100% by lowering each horse by the 33% takeout that the ML's add to the win odds.  I'm trying to find apples and apples with the fair line, and while this method isn't perfect, it's helpful to me to make this conversion and look for the inconsistencies. Expect the Turf to be firm and the weather good.  I don't see any threat to turf conditions degrading. 

Let's take a look at some relevant recent video.

John Henry Turf Cup G2:  SA 1 1/14 Miles Firm;  1 Oct 2022

San Gabriel G2; SA  1 1/8 Firm; 26 December 2022

Allowance $73K N1X;  SA 1 1/4 Miles good turf;  20 January 23

Hollywood Turf Cup G2;  Del Mar 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf; 25 November 2022

Masteroffoxhounds is my chalk, albeit light.  The win on this course at this distance in the John Henry Turf Cup gives him credentials.  Conditioner D'Mato and Rispoli, Up combine for 31% win rate at SA and Risoli was up for the John Henry.  2 wins last 13 starts.  7 of 7 in the money at SA, 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.

Dicey Mo Chara (GB) is one of the Turk's favorite runners in training currently.  $6,800  price tag with $430,000 in career earnings.  5 of 8 in the money at SA.   Powell and Hernandez, up, win 39% of the time together at SA. Hernandez is a 29% winner in 94 mounts this meet. Loved his last out San Gabriel which I broke down in this blog post.  

I already fan boy'd The Grey Wizard (Ire).  At 4 YO we could be looking at a star, but I'm not ready to crown him yet.  I think he's a legitimate win candidate here and will legitimately be overlooked by betting public in the top two spots.  That's a value proposition that I like to take a swing at when I see it.  Compare his allowance time (2:01 3/5s) over good turf to Masteroffoxhounds sub 2 min classic distance on firm turf and that equates to multiple lengths back.  

Avenue, Say the Word and Cash Equity (Fr) round out my potential Exacta players. 

 I'm shading down Prince Abama (Ire) at my own peril.  0 wins in 6 SA starts, no starts at the distance, but training sharper lately. I just don't put alot of stock in the Hollywood (why do they do this?) Turf Cup at marathon distance. One thing to note is the D'Amato/Prat 25% wins in 53 starts at SA but also Prat's current meet 7%.  

What to do with this:

I'm leaning towards not overthinking this  and going with $2 Exact with 4 OVER 7-9-10-8-6 for $10.

I think that's a mid probable, high reward value proposition especially if someone can shock for Place.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

Post Race Analysis: The Unusual Heat Turf Classic at Santa Anita 1/7/2023

 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. 

This past weekend we had our first blog of the year, and our first exacta win of the year.  For new readers, this blog's main purpose is to handicap turf runners and then to develop bet strategies for exactas.    That's all I do.  I use to be a Superfecta bettor, Pick 4 and 6 guy, but I've limited myself intentionally to really refine my eye for runners over a route of grass.  

I'm a bit of an oddball with strong opinions.  As much as I love the writing of turf writers, I won't read anything about the races I'm handicapping before they are run.  I won't look at Morning Lines.  I absolutely won't listen to Fan Duel TV talking heads before I've decided my bet.  Bias creeps in everywhere and I just try to limit the amount of bias I have to deal with.  

So now that you know that The Turk is a weirdo (I refer to myself in the third person just to accentuate this), you should also know that I'm not the horse player I once was.  My day job requires the appearance of fiduciary responsibility at all times, and I gave up being a degenerate gambler some time ago.  I enjoy tearing down the past performances of older horses running over 1 1/8 miles over firm (preference) grass like others may like crossword puzzles or Sudoku.  I love the mental exercise of ranking the horses, which you'll see in my Base Handicap.  From my Base Handicap, I form m y bet construction.  Always exacta's, always hunting for value.  I like the pool sizes and I like studying larger fields and finding the the overlays as well as identifying underlay's and taking advantage of the betting public's mistakes. 

The Turf Classic $200K: 1 1/8 Miles on good turf.

There was no real science on this one.  Pre-race I said "...What might I do? $2 5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to $2 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $8".   The $8 limited bet returned a net $17.60.  It's a win by a neck, take it and move along.  

I'll be back this weekend with the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $200,000 Turf Classic at Santa Anita

Unusual Heat

 Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 16th calendar year.  That handsome fella is Unusual Heat, the most accomplished sire in the State of California at the time of his death in 2017.  While he sired the Acclamation, he also sired many others including one I always enjoyed, the Unusual Q.T. You've been handicapping a long time when you see the names of their grandsires and remember betting them.  Such is life.                                                                                                                                                                                     Today we are handicapping the $200,000 CA State Restricted  Unusual Heat Turf Classic, run at 1 1/8 miles over the grass.  Santa Anita kept the races off the turf Friday to keep the track good for today.  I'm not sure what the turf conditions will be, but I'm expecting no worse than good but we'll see.  

The Morning line field of 9 was reduced to 8, with what most likely would have been the post time favorite, The Chosen Vron, defecting to Race 1's Cal Cup Sprint.  That leaves a wonky group that isn't quite much better than $75K allowance Class.  That's OK, we don't handicap who isn't here, just who's running.  Let's get it on!

This will be a race I may not bet, it really depends on where the action goes pre race as I just don't see much overlay potential.  I have my top two with 67% chance of winning.  I'm an exacta player, so someone other than those two winning would make the payout spicier, and if both finished no higher than Show, I'd be onto something.  Aligato has late race speed and class, winning this event one year previously.  Along layoff had the 6 YO gelded Kitten's Joy return in late October and again in late November.   Third time back, and with a very sharp :59 3/5s at 5f  last workout, I'm thinking Glatt/Prat (35% winners at SA/ 26 starts) have a live one.  I really like the consistency of Carmelita's Man.  Also a late runner, 6 of 8 in the money in 2022 with 3 wins, a Place at this distance on this track in March. Hernandez, up, 27% winner at SA currently.  

Those two I think are the top two, so who could upset them?  Well, that's where it gets a bit dicey. Royal n' Rando is making a class jump, never won at the distance, only 1 turf win in 4 starts, no wins at SA, BUT 10 of 13 in the money in 2022 with 6 wins.  Won't be much better than 4 or 5 on tote board I reckon.  Coalinga Road, a 6 year old Quality Road (Turk's favorite horse all time) goes for Carla Gaines, winless in stakes in past year, 4% sprint to turf BUT 27% dirt to turf. J. Velazquez up for second straight race.  Distance shouldn't be an issue but like Royal n' Rando, should be in the 3-5 spot on tote board.  

After those two, Kings River Knight maybe the best option.  Taking a big class jump up, the 5 YO is 3 of 3 over turf. Distance shouldn't be an issue, synth to turf shouldn't be an issue, having Dettori up isn't a negative.  The gelded son of Acclamation is training sharp and ships in ready.  A late toss for me is Doc Adams.  He'll be bet but not by me for better or worse.  C+ is my kiss of death, be warned.

What might I do?  5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

   

Post Race Analysis for the Grade 2 San Gabriel at Santa Anita

Dicey Mo Chara:  Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  As I said, pre race, I didn't see this as a betting opportunity race because I believed the public would see this race as I did, some combination of Masterof- foxhounds, 

Prince Abama and Dicey Mo Chara in the exacta.  

While the the handicap was good, the bet construction lacked vision.  It's important to always remember that bet construction has to realize your opportunity cost for the risk involved.  Speaking English, If I'm going to bet money, I need to get my money back plus a minimum 3X multiplier, or a $12 bet has to return $48.  It doesn't always work out like this, but you get the idea.  That's not to mean  I won't sometimes go after low hanging fruit, but in general I need my expected return to justify the bet. 

I use a simple formula pre race:  Horse 1 Odds X (Horse 2 Odds +1)= Return on exacta.  It's not to the penny, but its quicker and easier than looking at the will pay chart as it rotates through the field.

Let's come back to this is a second, but first speaking of English, lets watch the race con un picante sabor español.

The San Gabriel Grade 2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up.

From the DRF Formulator Race Charts (unpaid and unsolicited plug- I'm comfortable with the DRF tool, it's that simple)

So Pre race I was thinking $3.80 * ($1.20+1) = $8.36 for a $1 Exacta and $16.72 for a $2 Exacta. Those numbers are generally a bit overstated and I typically use 80% of the value I calculate.  I would have won the battle and lost the war.  

What I should have done is consider and give more credit to Flashiest and his 7 Santa Anita Starts, his 3 Place Finishes at the Distance and his excellent late speed.  Added to that is the public's opinion of him at post time:  $21.90 to 1,  Let's plug that into the calculator with Dicey Mo Chara on top:

$3.80 * ($21.90+1)=  $87.02  The $1 Exacta paid $71.40.  For my simplicity I used 80% of my estimate to account for takeout= .80*87.02=$69.62.  You get the idea. 

If I was building bets off the handicap, this one was obvious.  Now in hindsight it's super obvious.  As I start to handicap more and more, I'll get sharper, a fact I've learned many times over the years when I take some time away.  This wasn't a race worth betting under my base handicap, it needed value.  That value actually has to have a chance.  Late speed and a record of Place finishes was starting me in the face.

Anyways, better luck next time.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The American Oaks G1 at Santa Anita

 

Skims

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, which remarkably is about to begin our 15th providing horse racing handicaps. The blog's focus is turf racing, generally 4 YO and up. For 14 years the title of my blog was The Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks, but we've dropped the Hijinks and added Hockey. Why hockey? It's my 1A sports love, along with horse racing. My point of view will be to write about my favorite team, The Buffalo Sabres, as they continue to build the organization from the lows they reached (longest playoff drought in league history). Anyways, lets get back to horse racing, opening day Santa Anita, and the marquee race of the day, The American Oaks G1.

As I said earlier, I like older horses, primarily because I like more information to work with for handicapping.  That said, these top flight 3 YO Fillies have plenty of experience on their past performances to work with.   I like to follow the 4 YOs through their season, watching the progression that the trainers take through the conditions book. Journeymen are Journeymen, but the special runners get treated special.  You never really know what the ceiling of a horse is until it reaches Grade 1 company.  Some fold and wither under the pressure, and some relish it.  I like the bigger fields that turf racing usually affords me, as the opportunity to find the underlay is omnipresent. Let's get after it!

15 Oct 2022 Aqueduct:  Sands Point Stakes G2: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf

 

 Hard not to like Skims there, last time out.  3 Wins in 9 Turf Starts, 5 of 7 in the money in 2022.  Strong late turn of foot.  Checks the Class box.  Same race you also saw Pizza Bianca.  Not sure what to make of this 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner.  Most of her efforts at 1 Mile.  I'm not sure her own connections have decoded her yet.  Talented enough, but a real wild card and with the stretch out, I'm not expecting much.

13 November 22 Aqueduct:  The Winter Memories $135K; 1 1/16 on Yielding Turf

The Chad Brown runner Salimah (Ire) looked like she really took to the yielding turf of Big A.  She does have two firm turf wins in her very limited racing sample size.  Prat up, and Brown/Prat are 30% winners overall with 200 races over a one rolling year.  

24 Nov 22 Del Mar:  The Red Carpet G3; 1 3/8 Mile Firm Turf.  

Bellstreet Bridie (GB) comes in fresh off an extra furlong  effort at Del Mar, drawing off easily.  9 of 10 in the money over grass, 5 of 6 in the money at this distance, and 9 of 10 in the money in 2022, with most of her efforts except the Red Carpet in UK.  Lots to like but small sample size in US.

I have a trio of runners rounding out my potentials.  Mise En Scene (GB) has very good early tactical speed.  Last out in the Breeders' Cup F&M Turf,  this is only second North American effort. Winless since August 2021.  Will draw betting capital, just not sure how wisely yet.  The three are rounded out by two honest runners, Rhea Moon (Ire) and Sparkle Blue.  Similar speed, similar Class jump, 3 turf wins each, slight advantage to D'Amato's Rhea Moon for 4 for 4 in the money Santa Anita.   

So what to do with this?  Bet it first of all, you want chaos and lots of betting interests to make the return worthwhile.  $2 Bet 7 OVER-9-5-8-1-2-6 for $12.  That's just my first thought, I'll be interested to see how the public views before placing bet.  I may even sign up for 9 Over 7-5-1-6 for $8. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The San Gabriel G2 at Santa Anita

 

Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, coming to you from the blizzard that is Western New York. I'm 56 years old, and the Blizzard of '77 to me was the worst storm I ever personally lived through. The Blizzard of '22 I think will end up being worse. The storm is massive, the winds are scary and loud, and I'm just praying my power stays on and that my neighbors, friends and family are all safe. The facilities I care for at work are being whacked, and I'm praying for my staff that they are safe in these terrible conditions.  

I work long hours, something I've discussed here before.  My job is all consuming and has decimated any semblance of work-life balance.  That said, I signed up for this and I know what I need to do to make it get better, and that's simply training my staff into a top flight group.  I've done it before and I'll do it again, but it takes time and patience.  It's not dissimilar to handicapping.  The skills to decipher the past performances and find winners takes time and patience.  Over time your mind will spot patterns.  Over time, archetypes will form around the distance, the surface, the trainers, class, and a series of other inputs into your handicapping model.  While my job is really interfering with the time I need to work on my other passion, car restoration, I'm making time to handicap more.  It's stress relieving, it keeps my mind fresh and clear, and it's something I can do while I bide my time and await the opportunity to pound on sheet metal again.  I have no illusions that many people read these.  Before Twitter, horse racing blogs had quite a bit of popularity.  In the age of Twitter, and micro-blogging on social media, the long form blog, especially one that doesn't do a great job of attracting new fans, is tough sledding. That said, I do this for myself, I do it for my own enjoyment, and if anyone is reading this and enjoys it, I'm glad.

Let's get after it!

A seven horse field on the turf course is always a good way to jump back into Santa Anita Racing for me on opening day, and the San Gabriel G2 is a Boxing Day tradition for me.  A bit later on the card is the Grade 1 American Oaks, always a premier kick off for the fillies who will be competing in this meet as 4 year old and Up.  

The weather looks beautiful.  I'd expect the track to be firm, but you can find the conditions here on race day.  

Trainer Phillip D'Amato brings two solid contenders to this race, Masteroffoxhounds/2 and Prince Abama (Ire)/6.  This is sixth straight Graded Stake for Masteroffoxhounds.  D'Amato is looking for the right distance, winning at 1 1/4 Miles two back by a neck and nailed late at 1 1/16 last out.  6 of 6 in the money at SA, 11 of 20 in the money over turf, and off the board in two starts at the distance.  Early speed should allow good tactical placement by Mike Smith, up.  My tepid chalk. 

Dicey Mo Chara (GB)/3 is an interesting gelded 4 YO for Trainer Powell who places J. Hernandez (31% together at SA) up.  Also a regular Graded Stakes contestant, cutting back from a marathon distance last time out.  Last win at this distance/on this track back in February, only win in 8 starts this year.  Strong effort two back finishing with a Place to Masteroffoxhounds in G2 John Henry Turf at Santa Anita.  Going to stay closer to the pace this time out and make Masteroffoxhounds work harder than he did there.  

1 Oct 2022; John Henry Turf Championship G2; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf at SA

Prince Abama (IRE)/6 gets the nod here but its close to me with Bob and Jackie/5 and Rip City/1. I have them in that order, as Prince Abama, while winless in 5 starts at Santa Anita, winless at the distance, is 8 of 10 in the money over turf.  A last time out winner at marathon distance.  D'Amato/Prat have won 34% of time at SA over 1 rolling year in 87 starts.  Could easily win this and I'll like a lot if 3rd best on Tote Board.  

Bob and Jackie is stepping up in class and coming off a +180 Day Layoff, something Trainer Papaprodromou wins 19% of time.  It's also first time going for the trainer, something he wins 19% of time as well.  1 win in last 10.  10 of 17 Win/Place over turf.  Won by a nose in the 2021 edition of this race.  

Perhaps the best pre-race value is Zip City, ML 10-1.  4 Wins in 9 SA starts and 7 of 9 in the money.  11 of 17 in the money over turf with 6 wins.  

I feel pretty good (famous last words) tossing Go On/4 from my exact although the 4 YO Nyquist son has had some success at  SA at shorter distances.  I feel pretty good tossing Flashiest/7:  winless in 7 starts in 2022, winless in 7 tries at distance.  One win in 7 tries at SA.  

That leaves 5 for the exacta.  I think the tote board the the betting public will see this race like I'm seeing it.  I would expect this to be a difficult race to recover my capital and make my ROI.  If I end up playing it, it will be a straight $2 bet, 6 over 3.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!