Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I at Churchill Downs

The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.

Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.

The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.


Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.



The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!

The Nomination Is In: June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I Churchill Downs

That very nice Vanessa Ng photo to the left is none other then mighty Curlin, the best dirt runner in the past ten years, winning the 2008 Stephen Foster Handicap. Today's edition of the race features arguably the greatest horse running in North America right now, Einstein. The parallel between these two champions is interesting, as Curlin never found a comfort level on turf or synthetic, and Einstein seems to care less what surface he skims across.

Today's edition features at least 7 horses you could make the argument for winning this race, an impressive field indeed. My initial base handicap looks like this:

Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on beautiful Kentucky dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



With Einstein racing recently and putting up a 106 BSF, I don't question his current overall form. He hasn't won on dirt since taking to this track the day after Thanksgiving last year in the Grade II Clark. he is the superior horse and he has the CD experienced J.R. Leparoux up. He will be in the top three and almost all my tickets will have him Win or Place.

I think that Researcher and Finallymadeit are very similar horses and the same arguments for and against them are relevant. Either is capable of winning, but more likely I think both will reside somewhere in the top four.

The next cluster of horses, Arson Squad (long layoff, not a winning just a ticket dweller, Macho Again (likes the off tracks lately and not much of a place and show horse), Bullsbay (6 wins in last 14 starts, 3 of 3 CD, training well, and Asiatic Boy(McLaughlin/Garcia duet coming off long layoff, with lasix coursing through body for first time, something Kiran wins 25% of the time with) could all find their way on the ticket. I like Bullsbay's current resume the best, and Asiatic Boy is a bit of an unknown but I just don't like the long layoff.

My only toss out was Alphabet Magic..

That leaves me with a dilemma. I have been analyzing my betting practices over the past few months and I did notice a bad habit increasing: I'm working too many combinations of horses and not following my betting rules. I got a little loose with my rules around Kentucky Derby time and it's time to refocus. I'll wager between $12-14 and work my base handicap with exacta and trifectas. I'm keying to Einstein winning with the trifecatas.

The Little Turk is playing in a travel soccer tournament today. I'll have plenty of time between games to finish my bet strategy. Pay attention to the track conditions and the tote board.

Turk Out!