Post Race Analysis for Raceday 5 April 2014: The Wood Memorial, Carter Handicap and Santa Anita Derby

Hold all Tickets

We've all been at the track and torn up our tickets in disgust after our bets went awry. It's such a visceral thing to dispose of the physical evidence of our missteps. Speaking for myself only, I have race track superstitions and I don't like the losing tickets to be in my pockets or even at my feet as they personify failure. That said, there is always something to be learned from your bets as well as the handicaps. Today I'm just focused on how well my base handicap was.

I had a strong Wood Memorial handicap with the exception of Wicked Strong. Yes, that's loser talk, but the fact is I had four of top five and I had Harpoon and Wicked Strong flip flopped. I expected Harpoon to fire and he never did and I'm not sure I would have ever put Wicked Strong in the win spot based on his Past Performances. I should possibly have respected Jerkens more, knowing he would not have put the horse in that spot without a reason. It's a gray area for me, more guessing than handicapping, but I lost and I'll add to my files and look for the pattern to repeat in the future as these trainer tendencies also repeat. I will say I am very excited anytime a Hard Spun does well, and check out the stride over the last 1/16 of a mile. His father was one tough SOB, we'll see what he's made of. Social Inclusion? good horse, but great, I don't think so. I am impressed by Samraat: gutty and tough, perhaps not a classic distance guy but he will win races. Pretty cool to have a few good 3 YO New York Breds right now.

My Carter Handicap was eh: I would not have picked Dads Cap. I was high on Sahara Sky, not all all interested in the chalk, Clearly Now. I loved Sahara Sky's chase but he needed another panel and there were only 7. I expected lots more from Central Banker too. This info gets filed away for next time out thoughts.

The Santa Anita Derby was California Chrome's shining moment. I liked Hoppertunity, still do, and I'm not sure what to make of Candy Boy yet. The rest of the field was pitiful and the bettors knew it.





Wood Memorial G1



Carter Handicap G1




Santa Anita Derby G1



and while not blogged, the Princess returned....

Cat Clay



Anyways, have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Carter Handicap Grade 1 Spectacular

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, I am the Turk and today I offer up a trifecta of Grade One races for you: The Wood Memorial, The Carter Handicap and the Santa Anita Derby. I've been to past editions of these races and I'm here to testify there is nothing more exciting to this horse fan than being at the track for a Grade One showdown. We have showdown galore here with the Three Year old races while the Carter features mostly new entrants into the handicap division squaring off against grey beards like 7 year old Strapping Groom and 6 year old Sahara Sky. I'm a little delayed translating my handicapping thoughts into a blog post as the Little Turk, a second degree black belt, was demonstrating his kick ass form today:  Let's see what sort of form my red pen is in.  Let's get it on!




Where do we start: The tape is always a good idea to get a feel for the size of the animal, how game he was and to help fill in the story you translate from race charts and past performances.


The Gotham G3: Harpoon, Samraat and Uncle Sigh 




GP Alw $61,000 12 March 2014: Social Inclusion and the respected by lightly raced Honor Code.





The Jerome Grade 2: Noble Moon





The San Felipe G2: California Chrome and Schoolofhardrocks





The Rebel G2: Hoppertunity going tough in Arkansas.





RB Lewis Grade 2: Candy Boy





Malibu G1: Central Banker




King's Bishop Grade 1: Central Banker





Gulfstream Park Handicap Grade 2: Golden Ticket




Tom Fool Handicap Grade 3: Strapping Groom, Saturday's Charm and Dads Cap



San Carlos Grade 2: Sahara Sky



That was exhausting, but needed! I  try to do my homework on these stakes runners, and while I fancy myself a good handicapper, you always have to work at the craft.  Lazy handicapping is bad handicapping, and I work to hard earning money to foolishly invest in poor work.

I'm building medium priced superfectas for all three.  I think all three are a bit chalky so as I sit here a few hours before race time, I think I'll let my base handicaps speak for themselves and I'll mull over my bet matrices right up until post parade.  Make sure you pay attention to the track conditions and scratches and changes.  NYRA's website is very good for easy access to info, Santa Anita's website is OK, they make you hunt a bit more for the info.

Follow me on Twitter at @turkandlilturk

Turk Out!

Wire Players Dirty Dozen Poll Now Out and TBA Week Kicks Off

The sixth edition of the Wire Players Dirt-y Dozen Poll is now out. Almost everything and virtually nothing has been revealed by the prep races I've witnessed and handicapped this Kentucky Derby season, so hence I brought the lovely Detective Turk in to help me decipher the evidence and solve this deepening mystery. The top two remain the same from the fifth edition, and while neither raced, both had bloggers a flutter with their choices in where to run next, their last prep races before heading to Churchill Downs. Looking at Lucky, with a dirt win that answered the question of how he would take to the surface secured in The Rebel, heads to The Great Race Place for the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Baffert clearly wants to win the Kentucky Derby and he clearly doesn't think running the Santa Anita Derby will hurt his chances. I won't question him, not my place, and perhaps it helps as bettors may be inclined to not make him such a heavy chalk on race day and instead back the last best dirt effort they see. That very well could be our #2 horse, Eskendereya who will take on a nice field of potential Derby contenders and at a minimum, a solid collection of the current 3 YO crop at the Wood Memorial. If Jackson Bend, Awesome Act or Schoolyard Dreams wildly impresses, as did I Want Revenge's stunning poor gate exit and rousing last year's win proves, the winner could be the morning line favorite in Kentucky over a synth prep horse, as was the case with Pioneerof the Nile last year as well.

Wire Players Dirty Dozen Volume VI



TBA Week kicks off now and its our way of highlighting what a resource we are to horse racing fans.

The Turk is a proud member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, a growing collection of voices in the new media talking about horse racing from various angles. Our home web page contains an agregate of not only TBA blogs but blogs and newsfeeds from all over the horse racing world. We also have our TBA standings, a Past Performance engine and a Daily Race Form PP coupon. All good stuff!

We also have a link to our Twitter page. The TBA has over 1,350 followers and there have been over 7,000 tweets to date! If you are like me and need a race winner sooner then the 45 minutes it takes DRF to post a result, Twitter is great for instantaneous results.

We also have a link to our TBA Facebook Page. We have over 850 fans and it's a great place to meet the folks behind the blogs you read.

We also interact well with Bloodhorse.com and provide articles and stories to thier website and we 've recently begun adding a handicap to the Thorofan website.

The TBA is a vibrant collection of individuals with individual ideas and interests related to all facets of horses and horse racing, not only in North America but all over the world. Please come and see what we have to offer.

The Turk is bemused by the collection of runners in the Dirty Dozen poll and will need to consult with Detective Turk to discuss the intimate details of the information. The next version of this poll is the key one with all the major preps completed. You have to wonder what we can expect this year: Perhaps the 12th Triple Crown winner is in this group, who knows.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Video Analysis for Race Day April 4, 2009: The Santa Anita and Illinois Derby and The Wood Memorial

The Turk is getting ready to fly East after a great day at Santa Anita yesterday. While the Turk loves to analyze races on his 12 inch laptop screen, nothing beats watching the post parade in person, and seeing true Grade 1 horses go to the gate. This type of thing spoils me and makes me appreciate the racing at Fort Erie even more, as if a grand track like Santa Anita can struggle with these economic times and downturn in public interest, it took quite an effort from the folks who saved my base track from extinction. By the way, the bemused looking 9 year old above is none other then The Little Turk. It pained me to not have the brains of this handicapping team with me yesterday.

I was quite impressed by I Want Revenge yesterday. I was very impressed when he shipped and won the Gotham and now, I think that final 1/8 elevates him right next to Quality Road. I think nothing is settled in the West. Pioneerof the Nile beat some good horses to be sure, but I guess you could say I'm just not sold yet. I've liked Musket Man for sometime as well. I think he'll be a fine contender for many Grade Stakes races, but a leading man he's not. Where does this put The Pammplemousse and Old Fashioned? I'm starting to think Old Fashioned may be a big value pick at the Derby with the hype shifting to others, and that would be good drama for the Larry Jones saga.

Days like yesterday are precious race fans. Enjoy them like the Ol' Turk did.

Santa Anita Derby



Wood Memorial





Illinois Derby

2009 Santa Anita Derby Winner Pioneerof the Nile

Pioneerof the Nile off the pace wins the Santa Anita Derby in 1:49:17. The Turk bet only one race today, and he cashes a $17.70 $1 trifecta bet which he bet $10 on. I'm not sure if they get any easier then that.

4-Pioneerof the Nile
1- Chocolate Candy
5 - Mr. Hot Stuff

and icing on the top, I had Take The Points 4th.

Live Update: Santa Anita Derby Day through Race 3

The thermometer may read 67 degrees, but it's chilly in the shade and the mood is a bit depressed in the stands.


With every announcement that The Pamplemousse has scratched, loud moans roll out of the grandstand.

Through three races, the most compelling was the last, with Hameildaeme (GB)winning the downhill turf race.

Race 4 has already turned into a bit of a downer. The Santana Mile Handicap will only start 4 runners after two late scratches. Rail Trip is currently 1/5 which makes 9/5 Dakota Phone a semi value and Cause at 8-1 real big value. Rail Trip comes in winning 4 straight.

And to give you a sense of the crowd, I'll leave you with this picture.

A View From Santa Anita

A view from the Santa Anita Clubhouse Loge Seating, Section B. Drop by, the Turk has three extra seats and these are good seats!

At the Races: The Santa Anita Derby

The Turk works hard. On Wednesday he flew into Southern California and he drove, and he drove and he drove. He's been to Fresno, Santa Barbara, Ontario, Long Beach, Newport Coast, Irvine, San Juan Capistrano, San Marcos and San Diego. The Turk is bushed, but his business isn't finished. The Santa Anita Derby.

I may blog a bit later during the races or I may wait until I get to the San Diego Hilton at Harbor Island where I will shutdown for the night before flying home tomorrow. I'm watching the weather at the Big A as well as Hawthorne, as that will put a real kink in the handicapping. The weather in Arcadia has been so-so all week,overcast and not so warm. Santa Ana winds are dusting up as well.

Gates open at 10 AM and first post is at 12. Where ever you are today, enjoy the races, today should be a really exciting day.

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 21, 2009

Aqueduct Race 3: The Rare Treat 65K, 1 1/8 on inner dirt, for F&M 3 YO and up.


It was hard not to like the chalk, Weathered, and she didn't disappoint, leading from first call on. She won by 7 1/4 lengths and earned a big 45 cents on the dollar.

After Successful Sarah raced the day before, I slid Bourbon Maid up, and while having a good race, was no match for Aristo. Point Me To It finished as predicted fourth.

The Turk each week talks about what his bag is; Grading and ordering the field of finish from Past Performance and Trip Handicapping. Bet strategy is always secondary.

I mentioned Aristo in my prerace writeup as the only speed beside Weathered. Looking at the handicap in hindsight, I really missed on Aristo: She was coming off a win, had worked sharply, and was a 50% winner on the inner track. The six year old Mare had better current form then I credited her with.

While I didn't have a bet down, I would have lost because Aristo would not have been in my top four, as Rap Tale was rated by me still ahead of Aristo.

Aristo was the 5th favorite betting choice in a six horse field. If you had Aristo finishing for Place, good job!

Race 7 at Turf Paradise, The Turf Paradise Derby 100k, 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



Ye' old Turk had a pretty good read on this race as well, but this wasn't geniuses 'capping, just a field with a stratification gradient between classy Grade III and II potential and Allowance and Claimers.

The chalk, Mayor Marv, seemed completely unbeatable by this field to me, and he was. I credit Baffert for finding a dirt race for his Derby contender while at the same time collecting perhaps the easiest $100,000 this horse will ever earn. Hidden Bounty, who I expected to challenge for Show, was clearly the second best horse in this race. In my pre race line-up, I graded both Hidden Bounty and Pauper's Prince as A- horses, and when I grade even it's a toss up that leads me to a boxing bet situation. While I didn't bet on this race, I would have lost as I completely discounted Just Jebicah, who finished third.

Pre-race I said I thought Pauper's Prince, while a Triple Crown nominee, was vulnerable. All the horses here except Mayor Marv were stretching significantly in distance, and that creates chaos at the top of the stretch usually. At the 3/4 call, Pauper's Prince was in third, and in the stretch, the field reordered as expected.

I had three of the four for a boxed superfecta, but really it would have been more guessing the handicapping, so the conservative bettor in me passed.

Next week presents a much more exciting collection of Derby Prep's to preview. The Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park and The Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita will be very good races.

The Turk has already made his plans to attend Santa Anita on Santa Anita Derby day April 4th. I'd love to meet as many folks as I can that day, so drop me a line.

Breeder's Cup Heavy Hitters Preview: Col. John:

The Turk freely admits he doesn't know the California horses or surfaces as well as he does his favorite East Coast runners and tracks. As we begin this week to gear up for Breeder's Cup, the Turk is going to start doing some trip handicapping and getting eyeballs on all the contenders. I'm going to begin with Col. John and tonight we'll take a look at Zenyatta. Some pretty good animals to start with!


2008 Santa Anita Derby



2008 Travers Stakes