The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons. My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.
The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep. I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985. I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies. Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival. It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million. I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies. I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent: They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan.
I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt? Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me. I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems. They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure. It's symbiotic: How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now. According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001. That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes. How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years? Don't think about it.
That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected. As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis, you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data. Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.
I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today. I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells. The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares. I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses. Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel.
It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race. Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race. Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here.
Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.
Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023. Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time. It's a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO, but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.
Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the 1 3/8ths United Nations G1
Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022. Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.
Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get. My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them. This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.
Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field. Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day. At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred. Have to respect.
Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf 1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July. 1 win in last 8 starts. 10 of 22 in exactas over grass. Solid late speed. Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today.
Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day. In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end. Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one. I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.
Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S. 7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July. The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.
What am I doing with this? A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20. I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril. I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return. That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.
Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting. When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them. I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs. I don't. As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs. I like history, video, consistency. I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors. It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition. While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1. Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!
The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On. Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed. Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it?
I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots. 6 YO versus 4 YO. But will be rolling late. Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.
Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time. First time CD. 2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start. Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago. Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream. I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here. I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.
Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine. 5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing. Bad start in last start. No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022. 2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million. Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park. It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois. Moving on...
Seabiscuit H. G2: 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.
Muniz Memorial G2: 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.
29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.
I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot. Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those. Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril.
I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him. Something like 5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. For those of you who do not know me, I've been writing horse racing handicaps, primarily Turf Racing, since 2008. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
What a challenge: A14 horse field, few if any dominant contenders. I generally like to handicap four year old and Up Turf runners for the reason that three year old turf seasons can be so erratic. Seldom are the horses brought onto the turf first, they generally fail on dirt first before the surface is introduced to them. This race does have some turf bred runners, some potential, and not a lot else. It creates a real handicapping challenge and the reality is that I have a 4 in 5 chance of my favorite not winning and a 1 in 5 chance of my chalk, Public Sector, winning.
Part of my dilemma is Public Sector will be the public betting pool chalk as well, almost undoubtedly at the top of the tote board when they break from the gate. While I always handicap the race without a bias, the bet construction is almost always pure bias. The fundamental question: Do I ignore my opinion that Public Sector is the most accomplished and favorite here when I develop the bet construction or not? Leaving him in the win spot, perhaps even singling him, can be a good bet as there will be confusion in the field and value can fill out the exacta spot. I should have mentioned that also, I'm almost exclusively an exacta player. Can I find value singling Public Sector and building a case for value in the Place spot? Possibly, with such a big field I think it's unlikely Public Sector will be bet down below his morning line odds of 5-2, perhaps 2-1 is the ceiling. If I want to win at my opportunity cost return on investment of 40% I need to not overcover and be decisive. Let's take a look at the base handicap and some video and then think about the bet construction a bit more.
Let's get after it!
The Twilight Derby G2 10/31/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf SA
The Hill Prince Stakes G2 10/23/21; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf BEL
The Del Mar Derby G2 9/4/2021; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf DMR
The Hall of Fame G2 8/6/21; 1 Mile Firm Turf SAR
What to make of all this? When you are at the track, or even at home streaming the video, you don't have the time it takes to deep dive 14-15 horses between races. The effort I put into handicapping for a blog entry is more than double the time I would spend studying if I was just playing the card. The time difference can be described as not following the 80-20 rule. You have to be able to do 80 of the work in 20 percent of the time. I do 100% of the work for a Blog because I never know when I'm looking at a really interesting scenario and, people are reading this, they deserve maximum effort.
With the 80-20 rule I take no more than 10 mins flowing through the field and breaking into four piles: the Toss Pile, and then Win- Win Place- Show-Exotic. I represent those four colors in my base handicap with BLUE- YELLOW-PURPLE and RED. I waste no time agonizing over the Toss pile. there is no time for that. Can those horses beat you? Absolutely, but no time for that now.
As I'm focused on Exacta, I have three general archetypes: A singled runner and a few horses in Place; a boxed grouping of potential Win-Place candidates; a small group of potential Winners over a group of potential Place. I've been doing this for a very long time, and I see patterns in these fields and races that fit into the archetypes and I see no reason to reinvent my wheel. As I said earlier, I plan on following the rarest of my archetypes, a singled Win candidate. I say its rare because I want chaos, I want the favorite to lose and typically I bet the favorite to fall right out of the top 2 to create the highest value exacta possible. With a field this size, with the traffic that will be in place, so much luck goes into the ride that a horse needs everything to fall into place perfectly. Not to go off tangent, but that was the brilliance of Zenyatta, who was so talented could overcome a bad break or bad trip. Few horses ever come close to matching Zenyatta in talent. Very very few.
Public Sector/6 will be singled. Chad Brown is so dominant: 23% turf winners with 986 starts, 19% graded stakes in 340 starts, 27% 2nd off 45 -180 day layoff in 195 starts. Three straight graded stakes turf wins. A Race high 458 Tomlinson number, 8 of 9 lifetime on Turf in the money.
So who makes the cut for consideration into the Place Spot? I have eight potentials:
Subconscious/12
Shifting Sands/8
Flashiest/7
Hudson Ridge/5
Zoffarelli (Ire)/10
and
Beyond Brilliant/2
Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3
Santin/14
I'm not going to do it but to illustrate, a 6 OVER 12-8-7-5-10-2-3-14 $2 exacta bet would cost $16. I'm not saying you can't win with a bet like that, but you won't win enough to cover the times you'll lose a bet like that. Let's get to work chopping that bet down to size. Remember, to find value, something about each of these horses you won't like. It's easy to find reasons not to back a horse, focus on why you should back them.
Subconscious/12 could easily be in my win column. Trainer Mandella has a very sharp gelding on his hands with three straight wins, a nice Grade 2 win in the Twilight Derby, and a Del Mar win in August. Will be bet hard and my best case scenario is Tapit's son finishes no better than Show.
Shifting Sands (GB)/8 is a Chad Brown runner that you have to wonder why he shipped here except to compete. An equally gaudy 424 Tomlinson number to Public Sector's. Very classy. A good summer at Saratoga. First Del Mar outing.
Flashiest/7 ran well taking place in the Del Mar Derby in September. Very late and good speed. The gelding has to navigate traffic and put himself in position for a late break. The Del Mar outing may cause more public support than we'd like.
Hudson Ridge/5 incredible class, hasn't put it together. Baffert puts Mike Smith up. Blinkers off. Very sharp morning works. Lots of potential.
Zoffarelli (Ire)/10 five Places in 9 turf starts. Talented enough, also has yet to put it all together so far.
Beyond Brilliant/2 will bring lots of early speed. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with one win here at Del Mar in September. Stepping up in class from comfort zone of OC N1X, was ok for Show in G2 Twilight Derby.
Cathkin Peak (Ire)/3 has good late speed, last two races gone off at big prices and was Place and Fourth respectively. Winless in 4 starts in 2021, 4 Win-Places in 7 turf starts. Morning Line 6-1, I obviously thought less of the gelded runner.
Finally, Santin/14 is Morning Line 10-1. Lightly raced, just 3rd start, with two wins already. The Godolphin Team shipped for a reason, they are really entering deep end of pool. Late speed.
Many of my betting decisions with a group of potential Place finishers this large would be driven by the Tote Board odds. In the absence of that, I think my initial thoughts are to:
Single Public Sector/6 OVER Shifting Sands (GB)/8, Flashiest/7, Hudson Ridge/5, Zoffarelli (Ire)/10 a $2 Bet for $8.
