The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and The San Felipe

The Kentucky Derby Point Race should take on some interesting dynamics today, as several presumptive favorites take the dirt in what should be their penultimate prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Fifty points for winning and 20 points for Place makes this must see TV.


There are many ways to the Kentucky Derby: The Tampa Bay Derby is the path that Street Sense took to roses while at Santa Anita, Fusaichi Pegasus used the San Felipe as a springboard to achieve the same result. Winners of the San Felipe read like a Who's Who of The Turk's favorites over the past decade or so: Point Given, Medaglia d'Oro, Pioneerof the Nile, Sidney's Candy, Premier Pegasus and Creative Cause. That's some list!

Let's get it on!



There is plenty of interesting pace factors going on within The Tampa Bay Derby; I'm favoring a closer, Dynamic Sky to charge past Verrazano, who should be coming off the pace himself. Who is leading at the top of the stretch, I dunno. I'd like Falling Sky in that role, but I'm not sure after breaking from the nine slot.

Dynamic Sky doesn't seem like a Kentucky Derby winner in the least; Ontario bred, Mark Casse trained, he seems more like a really solid Woodbine runner than a dirt monster. I can't ignore the Sam Davis at the same distance at this track and I'm looking for more of the same, hopefully better.



Verrazano looks and seems the part; I just prefer to see them do it before I'm ready to anoint them, something Pletcher's runners seem to have happen to them.

Honorable Dillon has four races, four improving Beyers, good work, but needs to really show something as he stretches out 2.5 panels of distance. He seems comfortable stalking at shorter distance, not sure how Lanerie will play it for Trainer Kenneally.

Purple Egg is training exceptionally well, but like Honorable Dillon, is making the jump to route.

I'm looking for value in the Top Four, expecting the two classiest runners to take the top spots. That seems to be my theme here as well as the San Felipe.

The San Felipe's field isn't anywhere near as deep as the Tampa Bay Derby. Goldencents and Flashback should strike the top of the stretch together and take a hard run at each other. I am a huge Goldencents fan already, I think the horse is gutty, but Flashback seems the more talented I think he wins today.

I'm looking for Omega Star and Tiz a Minister to clean up what's left. The gelding son of Candy Ride, Omega Star seems to have some race potential and a step forward here would really keen my future interest. Tiz a Minister should have plenty of speed to target as he makes a deep close. Carving needs to show something today for Baffert's barn.

Have fun with today's races.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Fountain of Youth and The Kentucky Derby Point Race Update

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season is over and today begins the Kentucky Derby Championship Series.

My criticism of the current system is that the prep season rewards are too meager, with the leaders after 19 races accumulating only 24 points while today the winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes will each receive 50 points and the Place Horse will receive 20. What it does do it motivate the winners of the big 2 YO races to start running sooner, in February, and maybe, just maybe, it adds one additional start before the Derby for some of these runners, and 2 additional starts for fringe horses in the field.

I like the concept, I just think it will need tweaking. I would like there to be real motivation for trainers to run the horses more often and one tweak I'd suggest is a veto on gate draw for the Derby: If you collect X number of points and you started Y number of races during the Prep and Championship Series, a Trainer should be able to Veto Gate Position 1 or 20, or some variation of this, to improve his odds further and reward him for running. Maybe I'm missing something, but how does Winning Colors make history in this arrangement, how does Eight Belles get her chance? Maybe this closes the door on fillies, as while a filly does draw interest, a dead filly does not. I'm also not down with the suits at CDI deciding which races are in the circle of trust and which ones are not. I'm OK with most of the races they selected, but there should be some slots that rotate every year. I dunno, I'm the Turk, a hack handicapper and not one of the deep thinkers of the sport in general. For real talented voices in horse racing, I strongly urge you to read some of the top writers at Turf or Hello Race Fans!






This weekend we have the first two Championship Series Races. Most horses have two starts left before the Kentucky Derby. In the 1st Leg of the Championship Series, there are 95 points for the taking in a start, with the Show Horse gathering 10 points. In the Second Leg of the Series which begins about 5 weeks from now with The Florida Derby, there are 170 points available in a start, with Place gathering 40 and Show getting 20. A Show finish in one of the Big Races (Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes) and as few as 4 points or a Place in the Prep Season races, and I think you are safely in the Top 20. Let's assume the top ten in the list keep hitting the board, from Shanghai Bobby to Super Ninety Nine, then valuable scraps will be left over for between 14 and 25 other horses to fight for.

I've handicapped The Fountain of Youth Stakes and will be watching the Risen Star today as well. As a fan who doesn't care much about 2 YO's, by following the Prep Race Season, I feel like I am more in tune with this year's key 3 YOs, so in this way the Race Series and Points Method has enhanced my interest.

Let's get after this!



I think Violence (pictured above) is good. I respect the field that he defeated in the Hollywood Park Cash Call Futurity G1 but I don't know that he is 9-5 good until I see it again. I'm going to bet against him and my base handicap supports this by favoring Cerro (Ire), a typical Team Valor International runner; improving Beyers, a cutback of a 1/16 off his last race win at GP. His pilot, Castellano, jumps off for Violence, and that gives journeyman Rocco a chance.

I have Violence in the Place spot but he's talented enough to Win, and a wildcard enough to finish out of the money. I dunno and that's why its called gambling. I'm playing the odds, perhaps against my gut, and I'll cover him in the Top 4 in all spots.

My next five are a jumble and I think very little separates them. Falling Sky and He's Had Enough seem to be the best of the bunch but they have to show it.

Today's a good race day and I'll be back tomorrow to update the standings and talk about implications.

Enjoy! Turk Out.