The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Gold Cup

Midnight Storm: Photo by Benoit

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'd like to thank The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me an opportunity to share my thoughts with you.  To those of you unaware, Thorofan is a national organization created specifically to serve the horse racing fan.  If you are looking for other like minded racing fans, look no further than The Thorofan.

The Turk cashed zippo tickets on the past two Triple Crown races.  I could tell you how close I was to winning and winning big, but that's loser talk.  My handicapping of some of the longer shots was a bit off but my bet construction was dead on.  I built bets with favorites and long shots interspersed in the Superfecta.  You won't hit all your bets, but that doesn't mean your process was wrong.  Have a plan and follow a plan.  Consistency in betting is the key to breaking even and scratching out positive ROI.  Everything is against you as a horseplayer:  Be honest with yourself, study your ROI, understand the impact of takeout, and treat your betting capital like the precious commodity it is.

The Turk likes the handicap division* because he loves to see the large amount of data in the Past Performances.  The asterisk is that the handicap division is a watered down shell of what it was a decade ago.  The best are off to the breeder's shed and there are just fewer horses overall.  The purpose of this blog isn't to give cutting edge commentary on the state of the sport, its to handicap and build bets on who is racing, so while I may miss the days of past, it doesn't change what I do overall.

Let's get after this!





The Turk has been a big Santa Anita player, especially since the return to dirt, but even I have been a bit soured by field sizes and consistency over this Winters Meet.  I was happy to see the news that Mr. Stronach was sending his fixer, Tim Ritvo to Santa Anita to fix this horse racing gem.

Today's race, the Santa Anita Gold Cup, is a Grade 1 with 9 runners over the dirt at the classic distance of 1 1/4 Miles.  There are 12 starts in this field at that distance and one win.   Let's take a look at a few of the competitors.

The Californian Grade 2 (April 22) ;  A five horse field at  1 1/8 Miles



The Tokyo City Grade 3 (2 April);  a six horse field at 1 1/2 Miles




Not a prep but San Pasquale Grade 2 at 1 1/16 (January 1 2017)



Santa Anita Handicap G1 (March 11) 1 1/4 Miles




Alysheba Stakes Grade 2 at CD 5 May 2017  at 1 1/16 Miles



Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 at Oaklawn (15 April 2017)



not a prep but Cupid's last good start West Virginia Derby Grade 2 (6 August 2016)




Takeaways:  Small fields and a lot of off tracks this Winter!  The only horse making a start off a win is Hard Aces, who won the marathon distance Tokyo City over Big John B by a neck.  Hard Aces and Big John B collectively have 82 starts.  Journeymen, not stars, fill the cards in the handicap division. I digress.

By all measures, Midnight Storm at six years old is the class of the group.  He'll be on the lead with Cupid and perhaps American Freedom.  I think those two will both crack and fade.  It may set up one of the many one run horses who will be coming hard at the pace.

Accelerate has been training well at Santa Anita although he doesn't win much lately.   No wins in 3 2017 starts, no wins in six starts at Santa Anita.  I like him in the top three, perhaps Place.

A Quality Road 5 year old, Follow Me Crev, is in the same group as Accelerate.  He'll make one run and it just depends on early pace and if Midnight Storm can finish or not. He's also training well at Santa Anita but his barn hasn't won a graded stakes in sometime.  Place or Show.

Cupid is the class of the race, a $900,000  2014 Keeneland purchase, who had a nice run in 2016 with minor Derby's before cracking in the PA Derby in September, and he's been on the shelf since.  A bit slow but he has won at Santa Anita and his trainer Baffert placed him here, with a track record over the past year of 28% winners on 180+ layoffs.  I'm not sold on the Top Four for without more work to show me.  Cover/not Cover: It's the biggest decision you will make at the windows.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet.  If forced for early thoughts I'll single Midnight Storm and have a group of horses including Follow Me Crev, Accelerate and Cupid in Place and Show with American Freedom and Big John B in the Exotic spot.  I'm not sure about the value of the bet until I see the tote board and ultimately may just pass on betting depending on scratches.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Big 'Cap at Santa Anita

Shared Belief

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. Let me start by thanking the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today at the Handicappers Corner.

Shared Belief.  2015 Winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, The 4 YO Candy Ride son was as beautiful, as he was impressive as a runner.  These horses, so powerful, can also be so fragile.  I still mourn the death of Shared Belief this past December, and selfishly I wish he was alive to bring some life to a handicap division that lacks star power and 100+ Beyers.

Racing will never escape these deaths, it's a part of the sport.  In a game where many people reduce these animals to a number and a price, this handicapper is proud to say I'm a horse racing fan first, and a degenerate gambler second, and The Turk and the Little Turk always remembers the fallen.

Today's version of the Big Cap may not have Shared Belief, but it does boast NY bred Effinex, with Mike Smith up, the winner of the last the three editions of this race.  Not too shabby.  Let's get it on!






I was never that high on Effinex, perhaps it was the breeding, but $2.0 million dollars in winnings later and the 5 YO son of Mineshaft appears to be peaking.  Effinex had   a very strong end of 2015, with a win in the G1 Clark, a strong Breeders' Cup Classic Place and a G2 Suburban win.  Trainer Jerkens is 23% off the long layoff, and this was a long layoff since The Clark at Churchill the day after Thanksgiving, but he's training well.  I think the race is his to loose and he's a candidate to single.  Carrying top weight of 123.

Just behind Effinex I see a group of horses blanketed together, all with warts.  Cyrus Alexander has been training well for Jerry Hollendorfer.  Hollendorfer has worked nicely in a progression of 4f,5f,6f and 7f one week apart for the last month.  The 4 YO is 9 of 12 lifetime in the money, 7 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, 7 of 9 in the money at Santa Anita, and trying the distance for the first time.  His 98 Beyer lifetime best isn't good enough but something tells me this 4 YO is about to stage a second act to his career.  I guess we'll see. This is a good time to take a look at the G2 San Antonio, where Cyrus Alexander had no rally and finished well up the track.




Hard Aces and Donworth are in the mix with Cyrus Alexander.  Both horses have run well at Santa Anita, but I don't get the feeling that any of them can win.  Donworth has never tried the distance, Hard Aces has one once at the distance, a big Gold Cup win by a nose over Hoppertunity.  The wild card here is Imperative, who I have in the Show and Exotic spot but I'll be covering all the way up to win most likely.  3 of 29 lifetime wins, 1 of 16 lifetime wins on fast dirt, 0 of 6 at the distance and 0 of 11 at Santa Anita.  That is an ugly stat line, yet the San Antonio was there for him and he owns the race's second best lifetime Beyer.  The 6 YO Bernadini seems to be on the upswing. He's too low on my scale at B- and you have to respect this truly erratic feast or famine runner.

General a Rod isn't that interesting to me except the race is one of the few big Grade 1 races that Trainer Todd Pletcher has never one.  I'm not a hater or a fan of Trainer Pletcher and I'm not surprised that this one has eluded him.  It's a California thing.  The horse is a name, names attract money, and that's good when you don't think much of the chances.

I'm not sure yet what my bet strategy is. The rains are coming and while they are expected to be gone by Saturday, I won't bet if it's anything other than listed as Fast.  Most likely  I'll look to single Effinex in the Win spot, with 6-7-3-8 covered underneath.

Have fun, Turk out!

Post Race Analysis: Hal's Hope and San Pasqual

Mshawish by a neck over Valid: Photo Leslie Martin/GS Park

There wasn't much money to be made, but good handicapping is good handicapping, and I'm always trying to hone the craft.


A long time ago I made the decision that if I was going to take on the opportunity costs of a race I should also make the effort to review not only my handicapping post race, but also my bet strategy to see if what I did made sense, and more importantly, made a return on my investment.

Hal's Hope G3 Gulfstream Park Race 7: 9 January 2016

The key to my Hal's Hope strategy was plugging Grande Shores into Show.  I expected a different pace scenario and expected him to be moving forward and not backwards at the line, but regardless, he was 5th on the tote board and I had him third.  With Valid/Mshawish covered for Win and Place, and Grande Shores/Matrooh covered for Show a $2 Bet costs $8 and it offered a $33.40 return.   $8 for $33.40 is a good ROI for a 5 horse field.  The Superfecta wasn't worth the bet and seldom is in small fields, returning only $6.34 for $1 buck.    It's so easy and tempting to rip up the tickets and walk away when your bets don't work, but take the time now and then to think about the results and what you could have done differently and you'll improve.

San Pasqual G2 Santa Anita Race 8:  9 January 2016

Picking California Chrome isn't that hard, and the top four on the tote board finished in the top four here which doesn't bode well for wagers unless you single or use a matrix.  The matrix I assembled but didn't bet for The San Pasqual was  5/4 OVER 5/4/6/2/8 Over 4/6/2/8 OVER 6/2/8.  A $1 bet would have cost $30 and returned $57.20.  While still a positive ROI, you'll leave money on the table when you are being discerning.  I was more into the return of Chrome as a fan than a bettor and no regrets to pass on this wager.







Anyway's, it's a good start for the Turk and his red gel pen in 2016.  Happy Handicapping to Everyone.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The G3 Hal's Hope and the Grade 2 San Pasqual

California Chrome: Photo AP

Hello Friends to the 8th year of The Turk and the Little Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks.

Must See TV.  Any race with California Chrome, a Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Santa Anita Derby winner, a champion, not gelded, who is still racing at age 5, is cause for celebration in my book.

There are plenty of folks on the other side of the fence that hold a grudge against the horse because his connections are a bit o' jackass but I never hate the horse for something the humans do, and God knows, human's do plenty of stupid things in this sport.

The Handicap Division is what the Turk is all about.  I love the older horses, the journeymen who toil away for their owners, more valuable racing that making more horses, or gelded and doing all they can do.  I dig the older horses.  I know most race fans are paying attention to the Sham or some other 3 YO race today, but I couldn't care less yet about the babies.  They will have their time.  I'll catch Derby fever soon enough but the hype machine is something I like to ignore as a handicapper and I'd prefer to see a bit of ink on the PPs before I place investment capital on the line.

Anyway, I'm looking today at Gulfstream and the Hal's Hope and at Santa Anita's San Pasqual.  I've been on handicappers holiday since The Clark Handicap the day after Thanksgiving so I may be rusty, but hey, the red gel pen has muscle memory. Let's get after it!

Valid: Equi-Photo/Taylor Ejdys

Mshawish, a 6 time Turf winner, tried to win his first on fast dirt.  He's a classy horse with very solid connections, yet the Turk is shading towards Valid, winner of 33% of his races on fast dirt, 4 of 11 starts at the distance and 6 wins in 11 starts at GP.  I like the gelded 6 YO's work tab and I think it's his to lose.

I'm taking Grande Shores over a better horse, Matrooh for Show. The 8 YO son of Black Mambo, Grande Shores likes to close on the pack and I'd hedging that he hangs around long enough to come a running for third.  This is the veteran's 22nd start at GP, 16 of 21 in the money, 29 of 38 in the money on fast dirt and 36 of 50 lifetime in the money.

At Santa Anita, the contrarian in me is looking for Hoppertunity to upset California Chrome for the win spot.  Chrome had 2 starts in 2015 and I don't care how good he was, I don't know how good he'll be until I see him.  His work looks good and I'd love to see him freak, so I'll cover the win spot, but the degenerate gambler in me would prefer place.

I like Hard Aces, a six year old Hard Spun, to hit the ticket.  He likes to come late, so I'm going with a similar pace idea as in the Hal's Hope and I'm looking for him to pull onto the ticket in the last 1/16.  Blingo, The Moss's 7 YO gelded Artie Schiller, faded in this race last year and hasn't won since last February.  I think he's right there above the trailers.  Imperative has no wins in 9 starts at Santa Anita, no wins in 3 tries at the distance  and 1 win in 14 tries on fast dirt and he was winless in six starts in 2015.  3 wins in 27 career starts but $1.7 million in winnings, starting to look like a lot of luck when he beat Game on Dude in the Charles Town Classic.

Whatever you do, have fun and enjoy yourself.  Forget the sheets of any color and instead read the works of guys like Brad Free and Tom Ainsilie and work on your 'capping without the pressure of gambling.  Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

Turk Out!