Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 7, 2011: The Kentucky Derby, The Churchill Downs and Turf Classic

I'm sitting here the next day and I can't help but revisit the Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby. in hindsight there are some things to really like about Animal Kingdom on paper, but the thing I missed on was he was one of so few bred to go the distance. That final damn one eighth of a mile, 660 feet, it might as well be from here to the moon for most of that field. As a handicapper I knew he could handle the distance but I dinged him for no dirt starts and a rather undistinguished prep campaign that ended six weeks ago. I tip my Panama straw hat to some very fine handicappers who were touting Animal Kingdom to me. I was blind, but now I see my friends. An especially big shout out to Steve and Tony Bada Bing, as well as the others on the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen team that had Animal Kingdom 6th on the final poll.

I had 695 gross reasons to celebrate yesterday ($295 net)which no matter how you shake it, is still better than losing. More importantly, I made some kick ass mint juleps, with and without alcohol for Little Turk and the Canadian cousins, Shane and Serena Turk. We had a nice Derby party at my house and all who attended seemed to enjoy themselves well.

While I am happy for Team Valor, these offbeat prep campaigns only seem to enable others to try and go off of six week layoffs and limited starts and I don't want anything perpetuating that trend. Funny me, I actually want to see the horses run! Anyway....

Churchill Downs Race 9-10-11



I would be stewing right now but I felt pretty good about Get Stormy wiring The Turf Classic. I kept the betting pretty simple because of the distraction of muddling the mint and in general, the handicaps weren't that bad. This wacky Triple Crown season continues and I thoroughly enjoyed yesterday. The company seemed to enjoy the coverage on Versus, the HRTV coverage earlier in the day was good, and NBC was pretty good too. I didn't think there were too many bad moments but I wish the TV folks would stop feeling like they need to show us D List celebrities. My favorite moment was Aaron Rodgers talking about "...the last two minutes of the race" being the most exciting. Good job Aaron, I agree, the first 2 seconds yesterday were very forgettable.

I'd be remiss in not saying Happy Mothers Day to all the Mothers who read The Turk, as well as Mrs. Turk, Momma Turk and Sister Turk. My Mother and Sister taught me how to be a gentleman and carry myself with dignity and aplomb. I thank you both!




Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 7, 2011; The 137th Kentucky Derby and an All Graded Stakes Pick 3

Our friend taking a nap off to the left is none other than Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion and the 2011 winner of the Timely Writer Stakes, Uncle Mo. I never blame the horse, but I do question in hindsight the humans that surround the horse. I also found myself shaking my head, but not surprised, with the USA Today this week, in particular an article written by Tom Pedulla. In the article published on Monday May 2nd it was represented that Uncle Mo had a "textbook" workout (Trainer Pletcher's words) and that he was good to go in the Derby, with owner Mike Repole stating that Uncle Mo looked like a different horse than the one that left Belmont Park two weeks earlier.

The Turk is not a trained journalist nor do I pretend to be, but I find it odd that this article was nothing more than a regurgitation of what Trainer Pletcher and Owner Repole had to say. It seems to me that Mr. Pedulla, the 2009 Maryland Jockey Club David F. Woods Award winner, should have got the opinions of a few other observers with perhaps a bit less bias, assuming he had the inches and newsprint available to him from his editors, and if he didn't, again, I am not attacking Mr. Pedulla whom I respect.

Mike Welsh, from his duties as the clocker writing updates for the Daily Racing Form described the workout as well, taking time to note how Stay Thirsty was able to hang well with his far more talented stablemate. It seems Mr. Welsh took the glass is half full approach and attributed Stay Thirsty's work as improving versus my opinion that Uncle Mo was not "textbook".

Mr. Welsh didn't so much contradict Trainer Pletcher's comments but did provide more color. I'm more disappointed that what passes for an article in a national newspaper in the biggest week of the horse racing season was nothing more than an opportunity for Trainer Pletcher to perpetuate the feeling that nothing was wrong with his charge. Just a few days later, another Daily Racing Form article showed a picture that showed Uncle Mo working with a very high action. It seemed apparent that this horse was not ready.

I'd love to understand what the plan was for Uncle Mo as a three year old. The way he was prepared you would think he was made out of glass. We are led to believe that one hundred and thirty seven years of lessons could be thrown away and you could baby your equine into being a classic distance winner.

When will owners and trainers understand that they have the biggest obligation of all to regrowing the sport back to prominence. If the horse is healthy, it must be campaigned. A trainer studies the conditions book and plots a course through the year, planning out the fitness cycle to peak at the time and place of a key race. Owners have an obligation to campaign their horses, travel them as needed, and grow the sport through fan interest. The owner and trainer have much more of an ability to improve the state of the sport than an organization like the NTRA. The horses will generate the buzz and people will come. I would have gotten on a plane to see Uncle Mo in a race at Gulfstream this winter, but not the Timely Writer. How huge would it have been for Uncle Mo to challenge the field at the Arkansas Derby instead of trying a softer spot at the Wood only to get his hay handed to him?

I just don't think all the rich folk at the top of the sport get their obligations. I also don't get why you'd place a horse with a trainer who is more of an managing director than he is a hands on horse flesh conditioner. If Uncle Mo was in a barn that had 15 horses, do you think the trainer would have pussyfooted around? Mr. Pletcher knows horses, of this I have no doubt at all, but with that many high profile horses a man can only spread himself so thin.

The Turk likes to handicap and he's a race fan first and foremost. I get upset when I sense I lack of leadership and I really don't like to read bullshit like I read in the USA Today this week. You prep the horse to shake him down and part of greatness is being sturdy enough to handle the stress and strain of the preparation. You can't just open the doors for a party without doing any planning, unless your party is a crackhouse I reckon. OK, enough rambling.

Churchill Downs Race 9-10-11, the Pick Three including the Grade II Churchill Downs, Grade I Turf Classic and Grade I Kentucky Derby



I was spittin' mad with myself when I went back to my marked up PP's for the Oaks to see I had Pretty Plum a 1st to 4th and an "A". I talked myself out of placing her as high in the final analysis. I would have never put St. John's River so high but the stretch was dead and speed came to die, perhaps an indication that the track wasn't exactly fast. In hindsight St. John's River had a great late kick.

I'll let my spreadsheet speak for itself right now. The horses in blue are my considerations for the pick three. I'll be playing the races vertically and horizontally as well and the card was excellent and has me really jazzed for the first time in awhile.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

It Takes a Village: The Canadian Turk Returns to Handicap the Kentucky Derby

The Ol' Turk has asked Cathy, the Canadian Turk to share her thoughts with the readers of the Turk and Little Turk for tomorrow's 137th Kentucky Derby. Cathy goes way back in racing and her street cred is unquestionable: A Steve Cauthen poster on her wall as a child, a bag of Churchill Downs dirt and a run up the stretch , blond hair waving in the breeze that's the stuff of legend. She's a serious journalist, the closest thing to a professional here at the Turk, and she was kind enough to write her second guest blog post for us.

Without much further babbling, I present, Cathy the Canadian Turk.

Seattle Slew. Mine That Bird. Super Saver. One of these things is not like the others. And, after spending a good deal of time studying the PPs for this year’s Kentucky Derby field, I have my suspicions the winner may more closely resemble the latter two horses than the former. To sum it up: This year’s field radiates mediocrity.

The Beyers are subpar at best. With Uncle Mo scratched, only Soldat has earned a 100+ speed figure, which came in a January allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The main prep races (and I no longer count races on synthetic as main preps) were all won by outsiders, with the favorites falling like cheap wooden signs in a windstorm. And don’t even get me started on the conservative prep schedules that have become the norm. It almost makes one miss the old era of D. Wayne Lukas. Almost.

Having said that, it is still the Kentucky Derby. And just like a bad day at the track is better than a good day almost anywhere else, so too is an average Derby field better than good field in almost any other race. And I have an inkling there will be some serious money to be made in the exotics. Therefore, I am concentrating on a trifecta that will pay enough to buy me a box seat at next year’s Derby. (OK, I’d be happy with infield, or even not losing money).

I’ll begin with the favorites:

Dialed In: My first thought is to hang up on this one. I don’t like the fact he hasn’t raced since early April, and I don’t like the fact he will have to weave in and out of horses down the stretch, without a lot of seasoning behind him. Throw in his workouts, which I heard one analyst describe as “lackluster,” and the low odds, and my inclination is to pass. But, with Mo out – and weren’t we all curious to see what he’d do? – I am going to put Dialed In back in my exotics, letting him fill the slot I had reserved for Mo. It’s almost solely based on Nick Zito knowing how to get a horse ready for this race, but I won’t be surprised to see him finish up the track.

Archarcharch. Boy, was drawing the 1 slot badbadbad. I loved the way this son of Arch looked in the Arkansas Derby and, though he’s a closer, we all know what that post can mean. Anyone remember Lookin’ at Lucky’s trip from the same slot last year? Still, if by some chance Jon Court can take him back and keep him out of trouble, he will be there at the end. He’s never run a bad race, except for the Smarty Jones in January, when the horse next to him flipped in the gate. And with a 10-1 morning line, there are too many pluses to resist throwing him in my exotics.

Nehro. He’s the now horse for a good reason. Another couple jumps in Arkansas and he would have been a clear winner. Again, I don’t like the lack of seasoning or the fact he’ll have to work his way through horses in the crowded Derby stretch. However, Nehro stalked the pace in the Louisiana Derby and only lost by a neck. If he can stay close to the pace this Saturday, in my opinion his chances will be greatly improved. Having a vet like Corey Nakatani in the saddle is another bonus. I think he’ll go off at less than 6-1, but I still can’t see not playing him. A horse improving at the right time is always dangerous.

The longshots. There are longshots aplenty but I’ve narrowed it down to three: Soldat, Shackleford and Pantsonfire.
Here’s what I like.

Soldat. Throw out the Florida Derby and you have a horse who’s never finished worse than second. Everybody has a bad day, and maybe Soldat’s occurred on April 3. He’s now the sole owner in the field of a 100+ Beyer and can stalk just behind the speed. He ran well at Churchill last year, albeit on the turf. At 12-1, the odds are right.

Shackleford: He threw in the towel in the Fountain of Youth, and maybe that was his bad day. He bounced back and was just a head behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby, but I’m betting at post time his odds will be three or four times that of Dialed In. I cashed a nice ticket on Funny Cide a few years back, using the same theory after he finished just behind the much lower-priced Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial. He has a win at Churchill and has had some nice workouts. If I can get 12-1, I’ll be a happy camper.

Pants On Fire: Like Soldat, he’s had eight career starts, which I like. I wish he’d had a prep between now and the Louisiana Derby, but again, throw out his bum effort in the Risen Star and he’s never run a bad race. He also beat Mucho Macho Man and Nehro and was very game in his last start. 20-1 seems like a bit of a steal. Plus, I just can’t stop saying his name.

My strategy will be to combine these six in a trifecta, but I’ll wait to see what the odds are before deciding if I’ll do a box or key a few on top. I will not be surprised to see a giant exacta, so I may just box my three longshots in an exacta play and hope for the best.
It’s been a tough first Saturday in May for us handicappers, and I tip my Derby hat to all of you. After trying to figure this field out, instead of a Mint Julep, I’m more in the mood for a glass of water and a couple Excedrin. But horse racing is all about hope, and I will be full of optimism tomorrow when the gates open. Have a great Derby Day and good luck!

The Nomination Is In: May 6 and 7, 2011: The Kentucky Oaks- Kentucky Derby Double

Well it's finally here! We horse fans start watching 2 year olds like mystics reading tea leaves or chicken bones and graduation day always comes the first weekend in May.

The Turk has done a fair share of handicapping and gambling over the years. At the end of the day, I'm a horse racing fan and having days like this with multiple graded stakes and graded stakes caliber horses puts the fire back in my soul.

I got grumpy the past few weeks. I hated the way Uncle Mo was handled as a three year old and everywhere I looked I saw horses that looked like fine Grade II 9 furlong horses but so few classic distance runners. I let go some of my bitterness when I printed the Oaks day past performances and felt that feeling again.

The unexpected benefit of handicapping the Oaks-Derby Double is that I have no choice but get down to seriously looking at the Derby closely: It's one thing to vote on potential like I did with the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll, but its quite a different thing to take into account track conditions, current form, post position etc.

Let's get it on!



A nice thirteen horse card greets us with a a gaping hole missing since R Heat Lightning dropped out of contention. Coupled with the faltering of Uncle Mo, we have an opportunity to have a good will pay on this double bet and that my friends is why we play this game, the opportunities that present themselves.

After some internal debate I settled on five possible victors who'd I'd love to cover, but my very light chalk is Kathmanblu: 8 of 9 lifetime in the money, 5 wins, a Grade 2 and 3 win, and a solid CD 1 1/16 win on fast dirt. The McPeek runner with Leparoux up, expect an of the pace win in the deep stretch.


Daisy Devine might not win a class battle but she's a tough girl working well and coming in off a Grade 2 dirt win at 1 1/16 miles. The McKeever/ Graham combo wins 27% of the time together and placing her here for me represents some value, as we are afterall, gambling!

Joyful Victory looms large and I would expect her to be the bettors chalk: Her last two wins, a grade 3 and grade 2 she's won by almost 16 lengths combined for the Turk's favorite dirt trainer, Larry Jones. She'll be flying off the pace late as well.

Zazu is interesting to me: Losing my a neck to Turbulent Descent in the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks after beating Turbulent Descent two back. Nice speed figs from SA this winter and this fillie is ultra consistent.

And finally Summer Soiree is a recently transferred from Larry Jones to Graham Motion, with Saez up, and enters off a grade 3 win by 10 lengths. This War Front girl looks pretty serious and will look to strike the front and not give it up.

I guess we need to discuss the track condition I am assuming is fast. Make sure you check in on scratches and changes, the weather and track conditions before you finalize your choices.

For the Derby I considered dropping Uncle Mo completely off, as fear of a Life at Ten sequel is something i don't think Team Mo want any part of. I don't plan on covering him in the Double Bet and that represents the type of risk a bettor has to take. Playing it safe and covering everybody is the best way to take alot of money and turn it into a smaller pot of money.

For two weeks now I planned on making Archarcharch my chalk but post one is quite a hurdle. You have to go back to Winning Colors in '88 and Ferdinand in '86 to see success there. That said, I like his chances quite a bit and love the work and gallop outs he's been doing all week. My chalk is Nehro who I have regarded lightly but I am more compelled after spending some time in analysis: great late kick, a late surge and strong run in the Arkansas Derby, an he seems to be reaching the top of his fitness cycle at just the right time.

I'm expecting Archarcharch will be close and Midnight Interlude seems to be sharpening up well: This lightly raced, inexperienced colt won the Santa Anita Derby just after breaking his maiden. Trainer Baffert seems to be pushing the right buttons in his conditioning and I think he looms as a possible.

Dialed In is a feast or famine late runner who will be heavily bet. He could win but its far from assured and I'm betting against it for the bet sake. I like Shackleford's current form quite a bit as well and Mucho Macho Man will round out my potential covers.

So there we have it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with more racing from Oaks Day and again on Staurday with the Derby Day Late Pick 3.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Dirty Derby Dozen Poll: Call to Post-1st Edition: January 20, 2011

Another year, and another gathering of some of the brightest, most articulate voices from the new and old media covering horse racing....and me.

Yeah, the Ol' Turk is a hack but somehow got himself invited to join this prestigious group lead by our host and friend, Steve from Wireplayers.com.

Our mission is to take the pulse of three year old horse racing every three weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby and hopefully identify the contenders, eliminate the pretenders, and most importantly, add some snarky yet poignant comments along the way.

Let's get after it!



We'll be back in three weeks and update after a few key prep races. Have fun with it, Turk Out!